Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLIX - At the Source of Darkness

[the phantom]

Nog- as far as your points about non-voters, I'd say that I agree that WWs always like to vote. However they could purposefully not vote in order to be dismissed. And seeing as the leading vote-getters Day 1 and Day 3 have been proven to be non-WWs, there was really no need for them to vote. Just something to keep in mind.

Shasta- I'm thinking Cobbler rather than WW. He'd be much more careful if he was a WW. He made arguments that made little sense early in the day, and when I smacked them down forcefully he didn't even respond. And now he shows up and makes another gem of a post which is once again faulty at best, if not actually full of evil intent.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Phantom even says he suspected Form "for two days".

Yep, I did.

Originally Posted by Shasta

As we all know, Phantom loves to assume that the gifted do what he suggests.

Obviously, there is no possible way anyone can know what in the world a gifted is going to do. I make suggestions, and make logical generalizations, but I rarely assume that they will do exactly as I wish. Rather I fear that they haven't done what I'd wish.

Originally Posted by Shasta

he was a perfect scapegoat for Phantom-wolf to try and save Fea

Erm... He was the only person I could vote for to save Fea. If you'll recall, no one else had any votes. Kath was who I actually wanted to lynch yesterday, but she didn't attract votes.

Originally Posted by Shasta

...That made so much more sense in the shower...

I guess you had to be there.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Nog

Exactly. Our numbers are still good what comes to the victory-conditions but if we lynch an innocent and lose one during the Night with no assassination then toMorrow there will be four votes wishing us make the wrong decisions and only four to counter that.

Indeed. The current count of 8-2 doesn't seem that bad, but if no WWs or Cobblers are killed during this Day/Night cycle then suddenly our plight seems rather desperate.

Originally Posted by Dur

I'm really not, I just suck at being good.

So you feel more at home as an evil doer, eh? If we ever have a massive Barrow-Downs get together remind me to keep an eye on Dur. She might steal our things and beat us up.

[Durelin]

I'm just better at causing mayhem than actually being insightful.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Hmmm... why would a wolf-phantom want to save an ordo-Fea any more than an ordo-phantom would like to save her? Shasta's logic really makes me raise my eyebrows, but I think he still seems rather innocent.

Well, it could be about making himself look better. He knows she's not a wolf at least, and maybe doesn't suspect her to be a cobbler, so... But I don't think that works in this situation.

I'd like to think we can use the knowledge that Form was indeed a cobbler to our advantage. I'd also like to think that knowing that the wolves did not think Mith was a cobbler is helpful in some way, but probably not (you could argue from that that the wolves actually did think that only a innocent would put forward the Kitanna lynching idea). Can how a person treated Form tell us anything?

I think I want to look at Nerwen more closely, because her last couple posts where all she does is warn us against frivolous votes and says that things are depressing really bother me. I don't get it. And I can see her having fun with something like that.

Looking over her posts, she mostly seems to respond to people, acting sometimes as a mediator, explaining to people what others have said about them if they are confused/'upset' by it. (I've seen her do that outside WW, but I don't think that means anything.) At least she's done it a couple times. And what else...she dropped a little bomb about how she actually was thinking Lalaith might be the seer on Day 1. Interesting. There's really not much. Her votes have been for Kitanna (she seemed neutral-ish about the Kitanna lynch, didn't really think it was a great idea but didn't really fight it, didn't want to vote Gwath) and Lommy. Her reason for voting Lommy:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Yes, she's a bit strange, somehow...

So I wonder why she's reminding everyone against frivolous votes. Yes, that was back on Day 2, but...

Then she says this about Mith:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

but then so are you, Mith.

*shrugs*

Anyway, surely Mac-mod wouldn't let Nogrod and Nerwen be wolves together again without me!

Hmm, I guess I have time to look at someone else...woohoo...

Edit: Aw darn, was mixing up games. My stupid joke is even more stupid.^^

[Durelin]

Kath really hasn't said much...really. Usually she has a very small post count, but also usually there is more to her posts. Yes, she's said she's playing a new style and she has seemed to be quite busy. Anyway, I do agree with what she said on Day 2 about not underestimating cobblers. I think to many people have done that, including myself.

She was the first to vote for Lommy on Day 2. She was followed by Mith and then Nerwen. I don't know what Lommy is and of course that was when we lynched our seer. Nerwen's vote just feels like it's positioned strangely most likely because it followed a cobbler's and ooh, bandwagon! As if it isn't a bandwagon even that gets a wolf lynched.

So back to Nogrod for a moment, mwahaha! He suspects me because I suspect him, but he doesn't suspect Lommy because she suspects both of us, and he says he always suspects Kath and she always suspects him except that neither of them have done much suspecting of each other at all, except mentioning that they always suspect each other.

I think the only reason Nogrod was wishy-washy on his suspicion of me was because he was wondering if I was a cobbler...

I want to look at Brinniel and Greenie, but I just don't have time...yes, I picked Nerwen and Kath because they have been quiet-ish so there's less to go through...I had a very early class and soon I must leave to go to class for the next 3 hours so...

Anyway, I'm not going to worry about being completely wrong as I usually am and go with someone who the majority seems to think they might vote for like I did with Fea (of course at this point I have no idea who the majority might vote for...really it may be me), and just vote.

++Nogrod

Surprised?

[Kath]

Durelin, I'm quite pleased that you think my posts usually contain anything helpful. Generally I get condemned for merely analysing. I am playing a different style and it is far more fun. Clearly not very accurate though as I was totally wrong on Fea. However, given that, I still think our main suspects must lie in the last minute flurry of voting that ended up with her death. That's not to say though that they must be those who voted for her. I think it's likely, but there were others there.

Now, you can probably see where I'm going with this and that's back to phantom. I see I have an ally here in Shasta, but I wish I didn't because his arguments and reasoning are just bizarre. phantom wanted to save Fea, hardly a surprise. To save Fea he voted Form, again not a surprise as he's insisted Form is a cobbler for some time. I don't understand what Shasta has taken from this. What I take from it is that phantom played a very nice double blind and is a wolf.

Apart from all that Nog is firmly on my radar now. Going back over the voting I found that quote in which he basically says 'tell me who to vote for' and also, in saying he might be willing to lynch Fea, made a bandwagon more likely. I'm not sure though whether he'd be wolf or cobbler.

That's what I'm thinking right now. I may have to vote a little early and if I do it will be for one of those two.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Kath

What I take from it is that phantom played a very nice double blind and is a wolf.

Now that is reasoning I can live with. You are saying that I as a WW would try and get a Cobbler lynched to save an innocent all as a huge bluff. I'd say that at that point in the game with all four Cobblers still around that it would indeed be within the realm of possibility for something I would do.

But, Kath, I think you can agree though that I certainly would not have killed Mith-Cobbler. Especially with her helping me the way she was.

[A Little Green]

Here at last. It's nice to see people actually debating (especially as I don't do it myself...)

Originally Posted by Nog

And who says Greenie is innocent as she writes seldomly and votes early?

I'm sorry for that. I think Lommy already gave a reasonable explanation for why I vote early. As to why I post seldom, well, I have to study (surprise, surprise) and happen to share the computer with another person who plays werewolf as well and needs to post. ToDay I've been even more uncontributing than usual, I only came home from school two hours ago and had to eat and let Lommy finish being on the computer and read the whole Day through... I'll try to be more active toMorrow.

Originally Posted by Dury

He suspects me because I suspect him, but he doesn't suspect Lommy because she suspects both of us, and he says he always suspects Kath and she always suspects him except that neither of them have done much suspecting of each other at all, except mentioning that they always suspect each other.

Huh?

This whole Nog-Dury -affair looks very weird and I definitely want to think on it a little more. On the other hand, I'm pretty angry at myself that I only think of those two now when I actually should think about who's a wolf and who isn't, and I find it very probable that at least one of the wolves is keeping a low profile.

YesterDay's voting was bad, honestly. I can't dismiss the thought that a majority of the votes given yesterDay could have been baddies' votes and that really is something I don't want repeated.

Back with a look on the remaining villagers...


EDIT: x-ed with Noggins

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by the phantom

But, Kath, I think you can agree though that I certainly would not have killed Mith-Cobbler. Especially with her helping me the way she was.

I'd say this is the strongest possible argument in favour of tp being innocent. Not because she helped him - the "help" might have even annoyed him indeed were he a wolf - but I just don't think he would have killed Mith during the Night. And that goes for the very same reason he wanted to save Fea whatever her role was - which he couldn't have known in any case.

[Nogrod]

Ahh Dury! You manage to surprise me Day after Day!

Originally Posted by Kath

Going back over the voting I found that quote in which he basically says 'tell me who to vote for'

Yes I did - or at least I said: please be a little more open with your intentions. I mean it's totally insane if we have something like 15 minutes to go - or ten... or five... or two - and you have no idea whom people are going to vote as they all hide in the shadows saying nothing and if they post they just rant this or that. Surely I like to vote those I suspect but if the possible lynchees are totally against my preferences I'd like to be able to make a difference and fex. try to save someone I think is less guilty or be able to affect the lynching of the one I feel more guilty. That I find very important indeed.

Originally Posted by Kath

and also, in saying he might be willing to lynch Fea, made a bandwagon more likely.

Absolutely. I was driving for her lynching indeed. And I felt pretty secure she was up to no good. And I was wrong. Funny you make that point now as I've said this two times already... (just tells us how much you concentrate eg. I don't think you're a wolf)


I'll try to go back to my mammouth-scale read-through. Let's see if I'm able to learn anything from there.