Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLIX - At the Source of Darkness

[Kath]

Durelin, I'm quite pleased that you think my posts usually contain anything helpful. Generally I get condemned for merely analysing. I am playing a different style and it is far more fun. Clearly not very accurate though as I was totally wrong on Fea. However, given that, I still think our main suspects must lie in the last minute flurry of voting that ended up with her death. That's not to say though that they must be those who voted for her. I think it's likely, but there were others there.

Now, you can probably see where I'm going with this and that's back to phantom. I see I have an ally here in Shasta, but I wish I didn't because his arguments and reasoning are just bizarre. phantom wanted to save Fea, hardly a surprise. To save Fea he voted Form, again not a surprise as he's insisted Form is a cobbler for some time. I don't understand what Shasta has taken from this. What I take from it is that phantom played a very nice double blind and is a wolf.

Apart from all that Nog is firmly on my radar now. Going back over the voting I found that quote in which he basically says 'tell me who to vote for' and also, in saying he might be willing to lynch Fea, made a bandwagon more likely. I'm not sure though whether he'd be wolf or cobbler.

That's what I'm thinking right now. I may have to vote a little early and if I do it will be for one of those two.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Kath

What I take from it is that phantom played a very nice double blind and is a wolf.

Now that is reasoning I can live with. You are saying that I as a WW would try and get a Cobbler lynched to save an innocent all as a huge bluff. I'd say that at that point in the game with all four Cobblers still around that it would indeed be within the realm of possibility for something I would do.

But, Kath, I think you can agree though that I certainly would not have killed Mith-Cobbler. Especially with her helping me the way she was.

[A Little Green]

Here at last. It's nice to see people actually debating (especially as I don't do it myself...)

Originally Posted by Nog

And who says Greenie is innocent as she writes seldomly and votes early?

I'm sorry for that. I think Lommy already gave a reasonable explanation for why I vote early. As to why I post seldom, well, I have to study (surprise, surprise) and happen to share the computer with another person who plays werewolf as well and needs to post. ToDay I've been even more uncontributing than usual, I only came home from school two hours ago and had to eat and let Lommy finish being on the computer and read the whole Day through... I'll try to be more active toMorrow.

Originally Posted by Dury

He suspects me because I suspect him, but he doesn't suspect Lommy because she suspects both of us, and he says he always suspects Kath and she always suspects him except that neither of them have done much suspecting of each other at all, except mentioning that they always suspect each other.

Huh?

This whole Nog-Dury -affair looks very weird and I definitely want to think on it a little more. On the other hand, I'm pretty angry at myself that I only think of those two now when I actually should think about who's a wolf and who isn't, and I find it very probable that at least one of the wolves is keeping a low profile.

YesterDay's voting was bad, honestly. I can't dismiss the thought that a majority of the votes given yesterDay could have been baddies' votes and that really is something I don't want repeated.

Back with a look on the remaining villagers...


EDIT: x-ed with Noggins

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by the phantom

But, Kath, I think you can agree though that I certainly would not have killed Mith-Cobbler. Especially with her helping me the way she was.

I'd say this is the strongest possible argument in favour of tp being innocent. Not because she helped him - the "help" might have even annoyed him indeed were he a wolf - but I just don't think he would have killed Mith during the Night. And that goes for the very same reason he wanted to save Fea whatever her role was - which he couldn't have known in any case.

[A Little Green]

The villagers.

Shasta - I still don't have a read on him. His theories do seem quite far-fetched but I don't know whether it's to be read as wolvery or cobblery or innocence.
Eönwë - I think he might well be an under-the-radar wolf. Then again, I can't be sure of him since I remember very little of what he has said. I should have a look at him and will if I have the time.
Nerwen - I still categorise her as innocentish because she seems as much.
Kath - The consensus seems to be that she's a cobbler. I think she isn't. I think the cobbler assassin might have checked her the night people expected him/her to take Form. Or am I mixing the days up? I'm really too lazy and tired to check...
Dury - Feels innocent, though not as much as before. She might be a cobbler, but I don't think she is a wolf.
Brinn - Under my reindeer, my first impression is a vague "she usually makes sense". Should have a look on her, though..
Nog - He could be anything. No idea.
Greenie - Me!! (Woo hoo.) I'm no wolf. Nor a cobbler, for that matter. Definitely not.
the phantom - YesterDay I was pretty sure he was just a bored innocent. ToDay I have the feeling that he might well be a wolf...
Lommy - I never suspect her. Never. My gut says once again that she is innocent but maybe I should check her. Gah. Too lazy.

So who, then, could be the wolves? Eönwë and phantom? Or maybe cuddly little Lommy? Brinn? Nog? Shasta? I'm too confused. Don't know...


EDIT: x-ed with Noggins again! Hooray!

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Or it could be Shasta coming down from the Gifted-high he had last game back to regularlarly-scheduled ordo-ness.

Snagged a library computer. What I'm saying, Phantom, is that your vote yesterday for Form was almost as if you knew you couldn't save Fea and were just going through the motions for effect.

And you do too like to assume, via the gifteds. What was that just the other day? "I assume Gwath dreamt of Mith and Groin, so let's all go with that"?

Edit: X'd with Nog and Greenie... Nog reminds me that a lot of my play this game is based off people, not roles, which is why I may seem "far-fetched".

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Shasta

was almost as if you knew you couldn't save Fea

How could anyone possibly know that she couldn't be saved? As I've said twice already, it only would've taken one single vote to do it.

Originally Posted by Shasta

And you do too like to assume, via the gifteds. What was that just the other day? "I assume Gwath dreamt of Mith and Groin, so let's all go with that"?

Well, duh, because we knew precisely who the Seer was and he had left clues behind as to who he had chosen for his dreams.

My "assumption" was more or less statement of revealed fact.

Your reasoning continues to be perplexingly off, Shasta. You're pretty much screaming "I'm a Cobbler" at this point.

[A Little Green]

So, we have a bit less than one and a half hours to go, and I am very lost. I felt much more on trace yesterDay. There are of course plenty of things I should look at if I had the energy.

I think this debate between Shasta and phantom is really quite silly - Shasta throws weird points against tp who retaliates by stating that Shasta is not reasoning well and is therefore a cobbler.

Originally Posted by phantom

Well, duh, because we knew precisely who the Seer was and he had left clues behind as to who he had chosen for his dreams.

My "assumption" was more or less statement of revealed fact.

Oh but this reasoning is quite weird as well - I don't think we can take for certain that Mith and Groin were the ones Gwath dreamt of. I understand that this issue is already debated but I felt the need to point out that only because the majority thought it to be so it doesn't mean that it actually was that way.
I can understand Shasta's annoyance with phantom's manner but I think he (Shasta) is taking it a bit too far.. And phantom isn't making it any better with that "those who disagree with me do so because they are stupid" -attitude.


EDIT: x-ed with Eönwë

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

You know, when I first read that, I read "Just a reindeer". Must be all this subsitution of "radar" for the above mentioned creature of the North.

Haha

I'll have to think for a while now of who to vote. No analysis from me toDay after all - too tired and too lazy. Back with a vote and (hopefully) some clearer thoughts. I'll really really try to find more time and energy for werewolf toMorrow if I'm still alive.

[Kath]

Alright, I need to vote now.

++NOGROD

I was determined that it was to be phantom but he just has to go and make a reasonable point. I'm going to look at that Mith thing very, very carefully.

[Nogrod]

I've re-read everything but toDay looking at the few people I have had very little to say this far (+ re-reading Dury once again).

From that I learned that Nerwen and Shasta look pretty good. But a few reservations should be made.

Like someone already said, Nerwen isn't too open with her suspicions and her votes may be little "out of the sun" with little or no backing. It could be a good wolf-policy to look like "lady-reason" in what comes to general matters or pointing problems in other's arguments but being careful not to reveal one's own intentions.

Shasta has been very good and innocent looking & feeling up to toDay. ToDay I find his reasoning and the fervour with which he tries to engage with tp quite odd. Even if I have to say tp hasn't been too good either with his kind of over-reacting and some minor flips he has made (like the one concerning Mith who "helped" him as a reason not to kill her were he a wolf etc...).

Greenie looks possibly the most innocent of those I read again. Although her strict sticking to voting Gwath in Days 1 and 2 could be a methodical wolf-cover and voting Form yesterDay was an easy vote as well. Perfect wolf-covers then. But I wouldn't vote her, at least now, because otherwise she looks sharp and innocentish.

The rest in a few minutes (need to think about them a little before saying anything).

[Eönwë]

Ok, let's see the votes so far (not many, but still):

Shasta: tp
Dury: Nog
Kath: Nog (2)

[Nogrod]

Ahh Dury! You manage to surprise me Day after Day!

Originally Posted by Kath

Going back over the voting I found that quote in which he basically says 'tell me who to vote for'

Yes I did - or at least I said: please be a little more open with your intentions. I mean it's totally insane if we have something like 15 minutes to go - or ten... or five... or two - and you have no idea whom people are going to vote as they all hide in the shadows saying nothing and if they post they just rant this or that. Surely I like to vote those I suspect but if the possible lynchees are totally against my preferences I'd like to be able to make a difference and fex. try to save someone I think is less guilty or be able to affect the lynching of the one I feel more guilty. That I find very important indeed.

Originally Posted by Kath

and also, in saying he might be willing to lynch Fea, made a bandwagon more likely.

Absolutely. I was driving for her lynching indeed. And I felt pretty secure she was up to no good. And I was wrong. Funny you make that point now as I've said this two times already... (just tells us how much you concentrate eg. I don't think you're a wolf)


I'll try to go back to my mammouth-scale read-through. Let's see if I'm able to learn anything from there.