Tol-in-Gaurhoth L: Battle of the Fandoms

[McCaber]

Originally Posted by Lalwendë

However, it doesn't mean the wolves won't get me tonight, does it? McCaber is still in there.

Wait, so does that mean I'm a wolf or an innocent who's likely to get killed soon? With your pessimism, it's probably the former.

Now please stop trying to reverse-psychology the wolves and talk about other people for a change.

[Macalaure]

Things Brinn said yesterDay:
She stated that the CoD-voters were probably innocent, especially me and Mith.
In her list, leaning innocent: McCaber, me, Mith, Isabellkya
Unsure: Nilp, Shasta, Nerwen, Fea, Boro, Rikae, Lal
Leaning guilty: Nogrod, Sally (which later are her voting options, too)
She states that she doesn't return Boro's trust in her. Confused about Rikae and finds Lal odd.
She says she will take a closer look at Rikae.
Votes Sally.

Apart from the short explanations in her list, she sadly doesn't give much reasons for her suspicions of Nogrod and Sally. The Rikae thing might be interesting to keep in mind.


Things said to/about Brinn yesterDay:
There's Boro's theory in #150. Again, why, if he thought her innocent, did he question her that? As a test?
Rikae thinks Brinn is very innocent. Later she changes her mind and she's her second-best suspect (third-best in the end).
Nogrod goes after her because of her defense against Boro's question.
Boro thinks Brinn's defense was sincere and Nogrod's case forced. Nogrod defends his case.
Lal thinks she will be killed if Brinn is a wolf. Later, she states that she doesn't think Brinn is a wolf.
Nerwen doubts a Brinnwolf would have gone after Kath.
I agree with Nogrod's case. I consider a vote for her but decide against it.
Nilp agrees strongly with Nogrod's case. Votes Gwath because he doesn't see enough support for her.
In the end, Nogrod acknowledges Boro's point and relaxes his suspicion.

I still don't like Boro's part in this very much. Nogrod's case looks over-eager in hindsight, mine and Nilp's agreement stupid - if not worse. Nogrod's and Rikae's back-and-forth on Brinniel looks like the outcome of normal ordo unknowingness.

Why was Brinn killed:
There were others who looked more innocent. There were others who left less trails. I don't think what she said would have made Nogwolf or Sallysawolf think she was the seer. I assume that the wolves picked the most talkative villager who didn't leave trails towards them, but that's a risky conclusion. I can't shake off the feeling that there was something deeper behind it. A case against Rikae could be made but would be a stretch, I think.


Voting:
Mith -> Gwath (semi-random vote with a little reason, neither innocent nor suspicious)
Boro -> Lal (said it then, say it now: terrible reasoning)
Fea -> Boro (consistency in pointlessness?)
Isabell -> Nogrod (consistent with her suspicions, not a very suspicious vote)
Gwath -> Nogrod
McCaber -> Sally (consistent and non-suspicious)
Rikae -> McCaber (I don't really understand her case against him)
Nilp -> Gwath (fuel for a counter-bandwaggon to save fellow Nogwolf?)
Sally -> Nogrod (the suspiciousness of this vote largely depends on Nogrod's role)
Lal -> McCaber (keeping a third option alive)
Brinn -> Sally
Me -> Gwath (this vote looks very ugly if Nogrod turns out to be evil)
Nerwen -> Boro (this vote came out of nowhere - Nerwen, why oh why didn't you say a thing before? I would have preferred to vote for him, too, and Nog surely would have followed... if Boro is really evil, this could have been a secure wolf-on-wolf vote)
Nogrod -> Gwath (self-preservance and consistent with his suspicion)

A lot depends on Nogrod's role here, naturally. If Nogrod dies, it could be useful to have a look at yesterDay's voting again.


Gwath:
Thinks either Boro or Rikae is a wolf, but doesn't know which.
Other than that, he mostly defends himself against Nogrod and suspects him, of course. He votes for him, too.

Very little can be taken from that.

[Boromir88]

I don't like this one at all. The first part couldn't possibly be more generic ("strange stuff").~Mac

And I pointed out what was so "strange"...her insisting she would be wolf-meat last night.

Then, as far as I'm aware, Lal is not an experienced wolf (third game, one time wolf, or do I mix things up?). This is a very old way of making someone look bad: just say that s/he is an experienced/dangerous wolf. It doesn't even need a context.~Mac

Was I the one who kept bringing up Lal's experience? Oh look who it is who keeps talking about Lal's experience...wow it's Lal!

For the record, I don't think a wolf would vote for another wolf, because I've been a wolf before and it doesn't work like that.

Again, cause I've been a wolf before. If I was one again I know I'd eat me up tonight.

Then after Mac pointed out how he felt my reasons were suspicious, Lal doees a 180.

I've been a wolf just the once!

I'm not an experienced player but even I wouldn't do that. I'm sure you wouldn't be so plain about it.

Which identity are you trying to play Lal? The "I've been a wolf and I know a wolf wouldn't do that" or the "I'm not experienced and I didn't know about the voting rules."

[Nogrod]

The times are GMT meaning the deadline is 17.00. The underlined/bolded are the persons whose posts are cited below them...

I've tried to collect a point or two people have made of their voting choices to give you a view of what they were doing. There's also a tally of that moment (after one's vote) so you can see the situation where the vote was made. Surely in the end there were a host of cross-votes. I fex. waited to the last moment to see Mac's vote on Gwath and acted accordingly then. And some people actually marked their X'votings.

So here we go then...

Mith

(about 19 hours before the DL)

I find Gwathagor's response, to my response on his "correct me if I am wrong" re Captain of Despair baffling. How that pointing out that COD isn't an unsphisticated thinker makes me a wolf is beyond me.

Especially since he just agreed with Nogrod that it was unlikely that a COD voter were a wolf.

Sorry got to go but will vote

++Gwathagor

Gwath1


Boro

(14.09 GMT)

Hmm...Lal might be creeping back up in my suspicions too. She's been saying some really strange stuff today (constantly saying she's going to be wolf-meat tonight?) Lal is an experienced wolf and I can't pin her behaviour as a wolf. She is making her activity known today, drawing attention to herself, so she could be the cobbler, just out to confuse us and try to turn the discussion away from the people she thinks are wolves.

(14.28)

++Lalwende

There's something evil behind her intentions today, I don't know if she's feeling the pressure, or what it is, but it doesn't look right.

Gwath1, Lalwendë1


Fëa

(14.43)

Because I know what I intuitively think you are, but that doesn't mean I'm going to apologize for any attempt I make on your life. 1) it's a game, and it's understood that it's a game. 2) why draw attention to yourself with a conspicuous display of confidence? 3) I'm not going to apologize for voting for you, because I'm highly likely to do it again.

I have to leave for work in a few minutes, and won't be back. That means a vote. And right now I'm tied between Shasta and Boro, for reasons that rationality don't yet support, but which I couldn't forgive myself for not acting on.

(15.15)

++Boromir

(who could have seen that coming?)

Gwath1, Lalwendë1, Boro1


Isabellkya

(8.46)

I don't know if I would vote for Nog, but I definately have my eye on him.

(the outcome of her analysis)

(15.37)

Voting time..

++Nogrod

Gwath1, Lalwendë1, Boro1, Nogrod1


Gwath

(15.55)

Since, at this point, there's no question in my mind who I am going to vote for, I may as well do it now.

++Nogrod

His arguments against me have, from the start, been forced, illogical, and exaggerative. I find him highly suspicious.

Gwath1, Lalwendë1, Boro1, Nogrod2


McCaber

(16.07)

Yeah, I really don't like the way sally posted yesterDay, what with the "suspicion" of the Captain in quite a lot of posts but her vote trying to lead away from his death. (Old news, I know, but I just woke up. Give me a break.)

(16.17)

Voting time!

++sally

for reasons already explained.

Gwath1, Lalwendë1, Boro1, Nogrod2, Sally1


Rikae

(14.37)

Right now, my strongest feeling is that I don't like the way Brinn handles McCaber - and, furthermore, I don't like the way McCaber posts. I get the distinct impression she is trying to cover her bases where he's concerned (don't look like you're ignoring the possibility he's a wolf, but don't make it look like he actually is, either), while he is just poking his head in at the fringes of things, saying nothing that will elicit a response, and hoping no one notices him. Because Brinn is the more vocal of the two, I'm leaning toward voting for McCaber.

(16.02)

As it stands, this allegation of "chumminess" looks suspiciously vague and makes me uneasier about both Brinn and Nilp (especially Nilp, because he repeated Brinn's wording without adding to it, and while claiming to suspect her).

(16.28)

Nilp or McCaber... McCaber or Nilp... hmm....

++McCaber

Gwath1, Lalwendë1, Boro1, Nogrod2, Sally1, McCaber1


Nilp

(16.32)

Gwath is rather twisty. Hehe. Meaning he seems to start with the premise that Nogrod is indeed a Wolf:
Quote:
However, I'm inclined to be more wary of any lists of "suspects" that wolves produce, no matter what point in the game they occur. (Gwath 168)

and then kinda goes on from there (198). Hey, I hate DAY 1s, too, man, but at least I listen to DAY 1 theories. Would you rather have us pulling names out of our hats? You vote for who you think the most suspicious is, no matter how you reach that conclusion. (Well, an innocent does. So far as I know . . . )

But your defence was simply . . . *shakes head* All this talking about what you might do if you were one or other, what you think he might think of what you're doing, etc. (which you did twice--once yesterDAY and this now toDAY) and rehashing DAY 1 discussion (I thought you hated DAY 1s, why bring them here in DAY 2?) is just *shakes head some more*.

(16.51)

Hmm, and yes, voting for Brinniel does nothing. Suspect #2, however, already has a vote.

Ergo:

++Gwathagor

Gwath2, Lalwendë1, Boro1, Nogrod2, Sally1, McCaber1


Sally

(16.53)

I read the thread last night and noted that Noggie's been on Gwath like Captain Jack on a TARDIS. I still don't see Gwath's big fault, he looks innocent to me, and it makes me think Nog is grasping at straws. Besides, why kill Gwath? It's the same reason I didn't vote for Captain yesterDay; not enough information from him (although I turned out to be right, dang it! heh) that I felt comfortable killing him. Maybe I'll agree with the case against Gwath at some point, but right now it feels too forced, and the post I quoted doesn't help things.

I'm sorry I couldn't explain more, but I don't want to completely spam you people like ten minutes before DL, so I'll just vote.

++Noggie

Gwath2, Lalwendë1, Boro1, Nogrod3, Sally1, McCaber1


Lalwendë

(~7½ hours before dl)

So I'm watching these today: McCaber, Isabellkya, Nerwen, Fea.....with Nilp most likely to be drawn out of my bag for a vote if no obvious wolves turn up.

(14.52)

I'm still fishy about McCaber. After what Nerwen said, and now after what you've just said (= Rikae saying “I don't like the way McCaber posts.”), I have to admit he's looking shady.

(16.38)

What about those who are being too careful too? To be honest, I'd worry about those more than I'd worry about Gwath and Nogrod.

(16.57)

Out of my 3 candidates, I'm taking a punt on the idea of a wolf-on-wolf vote early yesterday, so I'm voting:

++McCaber

Gwath2, Lalwendë1, Boro1, Nogrod3, Sally1, McCaber2


Brinniel

(12 hours before DL)

Nogrod: I don't really like the reasoning behind his suspicions. As I mentioned yesterDay, I think was reading too much into Gwath's post. He's definitely someone I need to take a closer look at tomorrow.

satansaloser2005: I agree that her vote was definitely the most suspicious of Day 1. But it isn't just the vote...I agree with Boromir; her behaviour feels a bit furry to me. She's another that I want to take a closer look at tomorrow.

(16.55)

Best I stick with voting my original top two suspects. So will it be Nogrod or Sally?

(16.59)

++Sally

Explanation coming...

(17.00)

I was going to vote Nogrod, but this bandwagon against him worries me that I might be horribly wrong. Sally...her voting has been rather suspicious...

Gwath2, Lalwendë1, Boro1, Nogrod3, Sally2, McCaber2


Macalaure

(16.23)

Worried about:
Boro(+1) - still don't like his behavior at the end of last day and has said a few worrying things today.
Brinn

Slightly worried about:
Fea(-1) - still don't know what to do with her, but I somehow feel a Feawolf would act differently.
Gwath(-1) - even though some seem to think differently, I think his posts today have looked more innocent than guilty.
Sally(-1) - her vote looks bad, but she hasn't done anything today to make me more suspicious.

(16.49)

Since I wouldn't like to see Nogrod go now, I think I'll vote for one of the given candidates (unless a secure Brinn-waggon suddenly appears). I'm leaning towards voting for Boro, with Sally and Gwath as possible second choices.

(16.57)

If I can't get Boro, I'd prefer Gwath over Sally.

(16.59)

++Gwathagor

(edit: crossed with Brinn... great...)

Gwath3, Lalwendë1, Boro1, Nogrod3, Sally2, McCaber2


Nerwen

(11.39)

Or he was waiting to see who else (other than CoD) would get the most votes. Or he's the cobbler. I should have thought both of these possibilities were fairly obvious.

(17.00)

Running out of time...

++Boro.

Gwath3, Lalwendë1, Boro2, Nogrod3, Sally2, McCaber2


Nogrod

(17.00)

++ Gwath

Gwath4, Lalwendë1, Boro2, Nogrod3, Sally2, McCaber2


I'll take a short break and come back with hopefully some ideas drawn from this mammouth - and of the latest posting as well (after I read it, that is).

EDIT: corrected quotes & boldings

[Lalwendë]

Originally Posted by McCaber

Wait, so does that mean I'm a wolf or an innocent who's likely to get killed soon? With your pessimism, it's probably the former.

Now please stop trying to reverse-psychology the wolves and talk about other people for a change.

Ah, so I am talking about the wolves?

Heh.

This is how I work things out you know. However, I also have another thought which is to look more closely at bandwaggoning. Another Wolf trick is to hang off the back of a bandwagon. That would bring up any number of suspects but especially late votes out of nowhere. I'm going to have a look at those I think, too.

Also, for those who consistently vote for the same person, I see three possibilities: 1 - they have courage of their convictions (yeah, right); 2 - they are trying not to appear shifty by relying on us thinking they are honest; 3 - they are lazy and cannot be bothered to think of anyone else. I might look at these, too.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Which identity are you trying to play Lal? The "I've been a wolf and I know a wolf wouldn't do that" or the "I'm not experienced and I didn't know about the voting rules."

Pht, no point trying to get me onto the lynching bandwagon that way, because I was being honest. Yes, I've been a wolf (and wasn't too bad at it, not great though) and I know the mindset you need to get into. Yes, I've been a wolf just once - which was a response to Mac who posted querying how many times I'd been a wolf.

So I didn't read through the rules before getting stuck in, as you and Mith have both been a bit too keen to pick up on. What's up? Wolves not get enough to eat last night so they have to eat scraps, eh? It's just a shadow and a thought because you should know I'm not exactly a rule-reader, am I?

[Rikae]

Eh, it absolutely doesn't make sense, under normal conditions, for the wolves to kill someone as widely suspected as Brinn was. Thinking back, she also didn't seem remotely seerish.
Normally, I wouldn't think much could be gleaned from analyzing a kill, but this is a rather odd kill - almost a "wasted" kill, it looks like at first glance. Did Brinn say anything that looked possibly rangerish? Aside from that, I'd say it points to one of the following:
1) wolves under pressure who feel Brinn's death would relieve that pressure
2) inexperienced wolves

or does anyone else have other ideas?

I also think I'd like to go back and look at the Gwath voters - although the last few had a pretty straightforward "Nog saving" mission, of course.
I certainly approve of that, if only because I think the most skillful, talkative players are better kept around a little longer before judging them. I'm a little surprised to see Mac participating, though - from what I have seen, Mac has always suspected Nogrod (with or without reason) - it may even have been in every game the three of us have played together.
I shouldn't, I suppose, suspect Mac just because he may be trying to become less biased, though.

[Rikae]

I just realized the above theory about the wolves excludes me - and there is nothing more wolfish than excluding oneself with a theory.
Although I am neither inexperienced, nor under pressure, as a wolf I might have killed Brinn (in certain moods) just to create the impression the wolves were either of those things.
Other than me, I might suspect Nogrod... Fea... and Boro... of such shenanigans.

Brinn's death also proves that Boro defended, and Nogrod attacked, an innocent. Not sure where to go with that...

EDIT: X'd with Mith and a huuuuuuge post from Nog

[Rikae]

Nogrod - thanks for posting the votes, that's a big help.

Looking over them, Mac perhaps gets off the hook for voting to save Nogrod - Mith's Gwath vote looks a little fishy (at least by the reasons given here), and Nilp seems to vote based on what he said earlier about Gwath even after it was pointed out some of it was mistaken. The rest of his case against Gwath doesn't seem to make a lot of sense - meh.

EDIT: Sally's reasoning behind voting Nogrod looks very fishy. She compares Gwath to a known wolf, might suspect him later but doesn't want to now, and then (apparently) votes Nog for going after him? Bizarre.

[Mithalwen]

Rikae - It was just bad timing. Gwathagor struck me as oddest at the time I had to vote. I had hoped a few more people would have been around before I had to go but..they weren't. I knew I was highly unlikely to get back on line and I believe in voting if at all possible. But I hadn't seen the godson since his birthday last December so I couldn't really not go and fill him with excessive amounts of icecream - I mean feeding godchildren lots of icecream is in the Baptism Service along with renouncing the Devil and all his works and buying slightly unsuitable (as in noisy, messy and not educational) presents .

[Boromir88]

Random thought...I don't like Nerwen's vote for me, it's a throw away, and based on my vote for Lal. Wasting your vote on me Nerwen, so you can keep your hands clean yesterday?

[Boromir88]

Also, for those who consistently vote for the same person, I see three possibilities: 1 - they have courage of their convictions (yeah, right); 2 - they are trying not to appear shifty by relying on us thinking they are honest; 3 - they are lazy and cannot be bothered to think of anyone else. I might look at these, too.~Lalwende

I won't speak for Fea (I bet I can guess why), but I'm sure this includes me. I'll tell you, it's nothing personal dear, but I see a wolf and I won't be satisfied until I know your identity for sure.

So, Lal, care to tell us why you killed Brin last night?

[McCaber]

I still think that the Day 1 voting record is the best to find a wolf. I'm going to take a closer look at those who tried to save the Captain at the last minutes. I know that includes sally, but I'm not sure who else.

[Nogrod]

Some points from yesterDay's voting then.


Mith - Pretty light grounds but it was also stupenduosly early. I'm not sure what to make of it - actual haste and just voting for the first reason coming by or something else. Hard to say. (add: seeing Mith's new post there kind of makes me a bit easier with the grounds for her vote)

I'm a bit bothered by Nilp's way of making his points with it's recurring *shakes head* -theme. There is a general twisted feeling in there but it maybe I'm just seeing ghosts.

Sally pushed me nicely into the lead - on the brink of the lynch in fact. Now if she's a wolf that was something she would be happy about. Looking at the grounds for the vote do not look too impressive (well, whose grounds would do that?) but her timing looks like perfect for a wolf.

It's interesting that Nerwen comes in and votes Boro just like that at the deadline. And the short quote I gave you in my giant-post was all she had to say of Boro before that on Day2...


Lal managed to creep into Boro's suspicions worth a vote in twenty minutes (quite fast creeping!). That was quite an easy vote from Boro...

Fëa's insistence on lynching Boro is either having fun with him with no better options around or a perfect wolf-hide. Last time I suspected her on somewhat similar grounds and we lynched her she was an ordo though, so I'm going to be a bit more careful this time with her as long as I'm along in this game.


Isabell, McCaber, Rikae and Lalwendë are pretty consistent all the time. Now that might look good to a hasty player but in the end only the wolves have an easy time being consistent as they know what they are doing...


Finally from Mac I'd like to ask which made him change his mind in the last 30 minutes from this:

Gwath(-1) - even though some seem to think differently, I think his posts today have looked more innocent than guilty.
Sally(-1) - her vote looks bad, but she hasn't done anything today to make me more suspicious.

to this:

I'd prefer Gwath over Sally.

Wouldn't it feel that "looks more innocent than guilty" is giving cleaner papers than "not made me more suspicious"?



So sorry guys, I'm suspecting you all at the moment.

[Mithalwen]

Oh come on...don't play the rebel without a clue card. I just don't believe you. Apart from anything else there is the extreme egotism of assuming you are the wolves top priority. Not to mention defensive....

[Lalwendë]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Oh come on...don't play the rebel without a clue card. I just don't believe you. Apart from anything else there is the extreme egotism of assuming you are the wolves top priority. Not to mention defensive....

What card? Everyone knows what I'm like. More than ever these days.

You can call me egotistical if you like, I'll admit it does look like that, though I was only looking at what a wolf-Lal might have done in the circumstances. And I won't drop the thought because it's still a possibility, even more so now the wolves are picking up on that.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Lalwendë

What card? Everyone knows what I'm like. More than ever these days.

You can call me egotistical if you like, I'll admit it does look like that, though I was only looking at what a wolf-Lal might have done in the circumstances. And I won't drop the thought because it's still a possibility, even more so now the wolves are picking up on that.

Well it is basic courtesy to a moderator to take some notice of the arrangements they have made and I am sure that it is a logical impossibility for you to say you would kill yourself as a wolf - thougth I am sure Nogrod has a fancy name for it. I still believe that unless you are one, the wolves just aren't that into you

I think we will hear cries of Wonga-wonga very soon.....