Tol-in-Gaurhoth L: Battle of the Fandoms

[Boromir88]

If no one minds that I interject here again...

I still have a hard time believing that. Only a young newbie wolf would use his additional information that carelessly.~Mac

Whether you think it's careless, or not, is irrelevant; you are attaching your emotions/opinions to the evidence. Since only a newbie wolf would be that careless, and McCaber is not new to this, thus McCaber is not a wolf.

That logic doesn't hold; if I said only a stupid dog would fall down the steps, and my dog is not stupid, therefor he would never fall down the steps. That statement would false, because my dog has fallen down the steps.

Just look at the evidence for what it is, no attached feelings or opinions, just look at it. McCaber's had a squeaky clean voting record and has been right about everyone he's mentioned (until I pointed this out yesterday when I became the cobbler).

Would a careless wolf do that? I don't know would you consider me a careless wolf? Because it's more just an unconscious reaction than anything else, you can't just have this "turn off" switch that you have special information because you're a wolf. You have to constantly watch what you say and remind yourself "I don't know for certain." Also, it's a rather uncareless strategy in the regards of how long would it have gone unnoticed? I had no desire to look into McCaber deeper until he tried to convince us he could be written off as a proven innocent. How many of the 5 suspicious people that McCaber said should we have no difficulty in lynching/exonerating would have of turned up innocent before somebody did notice McCaber's tidy record? How careless is it, when it's hard as hell to convince you this is not "weak" and "careless?"

[Boromir88]

You want to talk about insanity...Mith, Nogrod, and I have accounted for 39.2% of the posts.

[Macalaure]

Ordo -> Wolfisaloser
KI -> Boro
Ordo -> me
Ordo -> Rikae
WolfofDespair -> Day1
McCaber -> WolfofDespair (he calls it semi-random, which in the light of CoD's vote just preceding his makes sense)
Cobbler -> Brinn
Fea -> Boro (puts Boro in the lead over CoD)
Izzy -> WolfofDespair (Boro and CoD 2, unless Izzywolf really did try to do some backstabbing, this looks very innocent)
Ordo -> Brinn
me -> WolfofDespair (again, unless some backstabbing was planned, innocent-looking. I would say, though, that this vote is more likely to be a backstab than Izzy's, because it has more determination behind it, so to speak)
KI -> Gwath
Wolfisaloser -> Boro (I agree, this would have had to be a pretty insane move if Boro is a wolf)
Mith -> WolfofDespair (it would have been easy to avoid this vote, unless Mithwolf thought CoD would go down eventually anyway, and looking good at his expense worth it - seeing Sally's vote, however, this then must've been a plan of Mith alone, and no agreed strategy)
Boro -> Lalcobblë (it's still a throwaway)

The CoD-voters still look innocent, barring a wolf-on-wolf, or even a backstab. Fea's and Boro's vote look a lot less innocent. Sally's vote makes Boro look good.

Mith -> Gwath (bad reasoning to go along with it)
Boro -> Lalcobblë (his reasons at the time were thin, but now that we know her role, it's hard to argue against it)
Fea -> Boro (what to do with this one?)
Izzy -> Nogrod (and with this?)
Ordo -> Nogrod
McCaber -> Wolfisaloser (calculated wolf-on-wolf risk in a wide field of votes?)
Ordo -> McCaber
Seer -> Gwath
Wolfisaloser -> Nogrod
Lalcobblë -> McCaber (she obviously thought him innocent and tried to get rid of him... doesn't mean he is innocent, of course)
Ordo -> Wolfisaloser
me -> Gwath (in hindsight, choosing ordo over ordo, but as a wolf, I could also have stayed out of it all and see Nogrod die or voted Nogrod to save Sally. Of course, I suspected Sally before and one might wonder why I picked Gwath over her)
Nerwen -> Boro (throwaway)
KI -> Gwath

All early votes carry some amount of suspiciousness, especially Fea and Izzy's. Nerwen's looks bad. My choosing Gwath over Sally does have some smell. McCaber's could be wolvish, but out of all these, it's on the more innocent side.

Ordo -> Wolfisaloser
KI -> Nogrod
Boro -> Lalcobblë (Groundhog day...)
Fea -> Mith (?)
Lalcobblë -> Mith (cobblerish bandwaggoning. Mith did look innocent, but maybe this was enhanced by Lal thinking Fea might be a wolf)
Izzy -> Nogrod (not look good this one does)
McCaber -> Wolfisaloser (can McCaber really be so eager to be the last remaining one?)
Mith -> Lalcobblë (little surprise)
Nerwen -> Boro (another throwaway for the same person)
Wolfisaloser -> Nogrod
Seer -> Wolfisaloser
KI -> Wolfisaloser
me -> Wolfisaloser (sure, I voted a wolf, but only when it was clear where the train went (I did cross with Nogrod, though))

Izzy's and Nerwen's look bad. Fea's a little. Boro and Mith are middle-of-the-road-ish, McCaber's and mine are more innocent-ish, his more so.

Seer -> Lalcobblë
Lalcobblë -> Boro (she apparently thought that no wolf would go after a cobbler like that. Some do, though)
Boro -> McCaber (trap or no trap?)
KI -> Nerwen
Izzy -> Fea (her reason seems logical, all other options had a catch... except Boro - voting for him might or might not have been smart, but a throwaway?)
Fea -> Lalcobblë (she could have thought she was not the cobbler, or decided to make herself look better by giving a deciding vote for the cobbler)
McCaber -> Boro (retaliation, understandable? maybe. helpful? certainly no.)
Nerwen -> Lalcobblë (same as Fea, the alternative would have been Boro, which could have made a Nerewolf look bad later)
Mith -> McCaber (don't like this one, for the reason I stated against Boro in my last post)
me -> Lalcobblë (logical choice at this late point)
KI -> Lalcobblë

Hard to tell which votes were suspicious without a known wolf around. Mith's stands out a little and I hesitated too long.

Nerwen (1: n/a, 2: suspicious, 3: somewhat suspicious, 4: unsuspicious)
Izzy (1: innocent, 2: suspicious, 3: suspicious, 4: hard to tell)
Fea (1: somewhat suspicious, 2: suspicious, 3: somewhat suspicious, 4: unsuspicious)
Boro (1: somewhat suspicious, 2: a little suspicious, 3: neither, 4: who knows)
Mith (1: pretty innocent, 2: somewhat suspicious, 3: neither, 4: a bit suspicious)
me (1: quite innocent, 2: a little suspicious, 3: innocent-ish, 4: a bit suspicious)
McCaber (1: rather innocent, 2: more innocent, 3: innocent, 4: deeply unhelpful)

Nerwen's problem is that, unlike the rest, she does not have one piece of innocent-looking evidence for her. If she's not the wolf, it means that the wolf obtained one such.
Izzy and Mith lynched one wolf, McCaber and I two. Not one of these votes have a clear wolf-on-wolf feeling to it. Boro was seriously threatened by a vote from a wolf. Fea made a bluff that I have a hard time imagining a (lone!) wolf would have done.

I'm not really convinced of Nerwen's guilt, but something tells me we should lynch her before we check out the people looking innocent at first glance.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Boro

That logic doesn't hold; if I said only a stupid dog would fall down the steps, and my dog is not stupid, therefor he would never fall down the steps. That statement would false, because my dog has fallen down the steps.

A dog has fallen down the stairs. Your dog is smart, therefore the chances that it was him are slim. (I never said it would never fall.)

Originally Posted by Boro

Just look at the evidence for what it is, no attached feelings or opinions, just look at it.

I look at it and I see a clear record. As long as I see better options, I think it's madness to go for somebody with a clear record! Yes, I admit his vote for you doesn't look good, but if I was innocent, had a clear record, and then saw your case and vote, I would have been upset, too. Concerning him trying to convince us he's a nearly known innocent, I give you that one. But these are not enough to change my mind. Not yet.

Originally Posted by Boro

Because it's more just an unconscious reaction than anything else, you can't just have this "turn off" switch that you have special information because you're a wolf.

Umm, yes, you can. At least you know you have to. Many, maybe most, wolves aren't able to do it consistently, but to consistently not do it, that's just not what an even moderately smart wolf - usually - would do.


As I said, I'm not writing him off, but right now I don't think that lynching him is a good idea.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mac on Day1 voting

Fea -> Boro (puts Boro in the lead over CoD)

You call this somewhat suspicious Mac? I'd call it somewhat unsuspicious... Why would a wolf make one of her mates to top her other mate? Wouldn't there be thousands of possibilities other than that - and more profitable to the wolves even if one weren't too much going to save the one in trouble (eg. CoD)?

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

You call this somewhat suspicious Mac? I'd call it somewhat unsuspicious... Why would a wolf make one of her mates to top her other mate? Wouldn't there be thousands of possibilities other than that - and more profitable to the wolves even if one weren't too much going to save the one in trouble (eg. CoD)?

Umm, but if Fea is a wolf then she voted the innocent Boromir and gave him the lead over CoD...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Umm, but if Fea is a wolf then she voted the innocent Boromir and gave him the lead over CoD...

Oops... Had Nilp not told you I was innocent you would have probably lynched me for that...

I was still in the mindset of last Day's speculation about Sally & Boro and was just wishing to say something while my mind was away... and is still.

I'll post next time only after I'm really in with this.

Soo bad...

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

You want to talk about insanity...Mith, Nogrod, and I have accounted for 39.2% of the posts.

That isn't insane, mon ami, - merely inevitable should we all live long enough....

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Whether you think it's careless, or not, is irrelevant; you are attaching your emotions/opinions to the evidence. Since only a newbie wolf would be that careless, and McCaber is not new to this, thus McCaber is not a wolf.

That logic doesn't hold; if I said only a stupid dog would fall down the steps, and my dog is not stupid, therefor he would never fall down the steps. That statement would false, because my dog has fallen down the steps.

Just look at the evidence for what it is, no attached feelings or opinions, just look at it.

Okay Boro, now you're making me feel good about you.

So the no-nonsense Boro is back and I'm tending to believe in his innocence for now - not so much because of that return even if it helps a bit - but mainly because of the vote by Sally on Day1 and the death of Lal the Cobbler...

And your case on McCaber is surely worth looking at. I'm not sure I'm as convinced of it as you seem to be but I'm thinking it quite plausible for now. But I need to be doing some revaluating before giving a stronger opinion on it.

I'm still somewhat worried about Nerwen and Fëa.

Fëa has played systematically in a way that is anything but transparent - I mean she has been methodically playful / odd which could be perfect disguise for a wolf (or then just an ordo having fun with it).

Nerwen is nice, very observant and careful while throwing votes away... Very much non-controversial in many ways. Just like a sneaky wolf would be. Gah, if we just knew her role it would be a lot easier as I do appreciate her help a lot when she's innocent.

OOC: Lommy & Greenie are down to my place for the weekend and we'll be doing stuff so I won't be around as much I'd normally be at this time of the Day but I'll try to come back before going to sleep to look backwards a few things.