Tol-in-Gaurhoth L: Battle of the Fandoms

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So were you Nerwen a wolf you would have been very annoyed looking at Sally going down (your last mate that is as I said there) and the way you try to bring forwards Fëa's "revelation" twice kind of looks like saying it cautiously that we should perhaps look at Fëa at the last minutes rather than lynch Sally.

Oh... okay, I completely misinterpreted what you meant there, then.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I do agree with you that suspecting or even voting innocents is no "proof" of anyone's lupinity. Of course not, as we all do it all the time. But if McCaber has been unbeliavably right all the time you have been very-very-wrong all the time managing to basically suspect or turn the discussion to ordos all the time without getting it right at all. Now I don't say it's impossible one gets things totally wrong - it's happened to me as well and I think to everyone - but it's not usual after four Days... So I thought it was worth noticing among other possible reasons to suspect you.

*jaw drops*

Nogrod– which of us tried to turn the vote away from a wolf on Day One? Which of us led a successful campaign to lynch an innocent on Day Two?

Like I said, why do you think you got dreamed?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Talking about luxuries: Sadly a werewolf-game isn't the place where you'd be happy to make a leap of faith as your first act.

Ah, but it is the place for IC posting...

[Boromir88]

Absolutely ruthless .... which is why I can't absolutely trust him now. Though I would be very suprised if he were the wolf now.~Mith

I am quite ruthless towards pack mates, and with some of the stuff you've seen me pull, it's quite understandable why you're a little leery. But, it's really when I go completely unsuspected for 3-4 days when you have to worry about me. That means I'm making good sense (and attacking my wolf mates), but I'm being unconfrontational and not getting under people's skins.

So were you Nerwen a wolf you would have been very annoyed looking at Sally going down (your last mate that is as I said there) and the way you try to bring forwards Fëa's "revelation" twice kind of looks like saying it cautiously that we should perhaps look at Fëa at the last minutes rather than lynch Sally.~Nogrod

And Mac would say my evidence is weak. Granted that's not the entire schibang against Nerwen (I wouldn't even call it the potatoes), but it looks that's a bit of a stretch.

Although I still find it hard to believe the lone wolf situation this early was planned by the wolves. Is it possible they just messed it all up?~Nogrod

I don't know if it was planned in the sense "alright let's sacrifice CoD on Day 1 and sally on Day 3." But perhaps it was generally planned that McCaber would go after his wolf mates to make him look better, and hopefully there's a couple innocents lynched in between. Really who could have seen a last minute bandwagon against CoD, would end up lynching a wolf? I doubt CoD's two partners were. With all the attention Lal and I had been gathering, who could have seen sally's lynching on Day 3? Granted she had been growing in suspicion, but with how spread the votes were, how many options you had to go at the end, who saw sally's lynching until the end?

It would be a big risk, but that doesn't make it careless or stupid. That makes it risky, and dangerous, but high risk can bring high reward. Everyone thought I had just insured village victory by saying I was the ranger, when no one was suspecting me, and I the last wolf to fend for herself. I crunched the numbers, and it was a calculated risk, it paid off. It could have easily blown up in my face and the village would have been right in thinking what the heck was I doing? But it ended blowing up in your face didn't it?

Anyway, just because a wolf gets caught taking a risk, doesn't make him/her careless. It was a bold play and the wolf got caught. I bet you if McCaber, went to the end, as the last wolf you wouldn't all be calling it a careless play, you would be babbling on about how bold and clever it was. But, I think he's been caught, and since he was caught that obviously makes him a careless wolf then, right?

And I would not view my Day 2&3 votes as safe and early. They both came about half an hour before DL, and I tried to start bandwaggons against she who I knew was a wolf.~McCaber

Voting a half an hour early doesn't mean it's still not a safe vote. Maybe you are innocent and were starting a bandwagon against someone you knew was a wolf. Or is it a safe vote, because you knew the possibility of sally getting lynched on Day 2 was next to nil, and Day 3 I'd give you...moderate, there was a moderate chance sally would be lynched on Day 3? Also, sally's role being revealed would hopefully propel you into the "undoubtedly known innocent" category.

McCaber, ok then, you got a good record, so let's hear some more thoughts on who you think is a wolf.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Like I said, why do you think you got dreamed?

Actually, didn't Nilp imply that his goal wasn't necessarily to find wolves but to stockpile innocents? I took that to mean that he'd been picking under the reindeer types who wouldn't do anything that would get them easily killed. Ie: Nogrod got dreamed because he wasn't being particularly threatening.

Though I might be totally off.

[Nerwen]

Boro–

Re: McCaber.

Yes, his behaviour could be consistent with furriness– and yes, the circumstances are such that he could still conceivably win as a lone wolf– but once you've said that, you've said everything. I mean saying he's "been caught" is a hell of a stretch.

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Actually, didn't Nilp imply that his goal wasn't necessarily to find wolves but to stockpile innocents? I took that to mean that he'd been picking under the reindeer types who wouldn't do anything that would get them easily killed. Ie: Nogrod got dreamed because he wasn't being particularly threatening.

Though I might be totally off.

Yes, you are. The Seer's goal is always to find wolves, first and foremost. Known innocents are the consolation prize.

In fact, Nilp dreamed a nice cross section of the village:

Brinniel –under fire from Day One.
Nogrod –suspicious behaviour on Day One.
Rikae –behaved oddly on Day One, then slipped under the radar.
Shasta –brawled with you and Boro.

EDIT: fixed bolding.

[Macalaure]

A look at Isabellkya


Day1

#47 makes some semi-serious comments on Rikae and Fea.

#82 thinks it's possible Shasta voted Boro out of revenge. Says it would be nice to catch a wolf on Day1, "but I don't think it HAS TO HAPPEN". Sympathizes with Brinn but doesn't think I had evil intentions when going after her.
"It doesn't have to happen" combined with "It happened!" is a little strange.

#103 ponders Shasta a little and then says

I am off now..so, I suppose this is a throw away vote at best..

++CoD

Throw away? If she said it was a random vote, I would believe her, but the second vote for CoD at this point was by no means a throwaway. Why did she say this?


Day2

#160 explains her vote with

Wow.
What a strike of luck.
My voting on CoD was pretty darn random. I was trying to make a vote while trying to get out the door at the same time. His voting of Day One stood out in my mind the most, so I figured heh why not.

Not exactly consistent with what she said before. Nothing new either.

#194 will look at Nogrod and Boro because of buddybuddy-ness and a "few things Nogrod said". She says she wants to look at Sally for the point Boro brought up earlier.

#204 detailed analysis of Nogrod and Sally. Concludes she will keep an eye on Nogrod. No clear conclusion on Sally.
This one looks actually pretty genuine.

#225 good observation about Lalwende

#233 votes Nogrod


Day3

#281 wonders why Brinn was killed because she expected another trail-less kill. Gives a vote tally without comments.

#283 questions Lal

#316 accuses Boro of copying his arguments

#320 defends her accusation and herself

#349 explains herself to Boro about her points about the relation between Boro and Nogrod

#359 contemplates Lal's cobblerdom (part of that is pondering her giftedness, which raises my eyebrow) says she will vote Nogrod or Sally

#377 votes Nogrod

A bit defensive this day.


Day4

#449 makes good points against Nogrod

#476 after Nilp revealed, she thinks McCaber and I are innocent, Boro, Lal, and Fea could be cobblers, Nerwen and Mith she's undecided about. No wolf suspects there! Other than that, the list almost scarily coincides with my own suspicions.

#489 had a closer look at Mith and didn't find anything too alarming

#498 votes Fea because everyone else looks innocent, cobblerish, or should be left to Nilp

Now, at first glance this looks all rather innocent, and it probably is, but I could also see this scenario: Izzy is very consistent about Nogrod and Sally. Now Sally was dead and Nogrod innocent. As a wolf, you usually have to make fake cases against some innocents, but you'd like to minimize their number in order to minimize retaliation. Did Izzywolf choose Nogrod to be her perpetual scapegoat? And then, after he's innocent, she's a bit lost and can't get herself to make a new fake case against an innocent, simply because what everyone else does is just so darn innocent (in the wolf's eye (I at least always feel that way as a wolf))?


ToDay

#532 defends her vote to Boro

#544 says she will look at Mith, Nerwen, and Fea. This statement about Boro is quite fishy:

Since Lal died as the Cobbler, I suppose that puts Boro in a bit of better light. Leaving him either innocent or wolf. Though, Sally's vote for him on Day 1 is kind of bugging me.

Well, well, a clear-cut wolf suspect surely looks different. There are a few things that look fishy, and under the magnifying glass (and given the surrounding statements), her Day1 vote doesn't look perfectly innocent anymore.
She suspects Sally but doesn't vote for her. This could indicate that CoD's death was not intended and she'd like to keep Sally around, but at the same time can't overlook the suspicious things Sally did.

PS: this is definitely the last long analysis I will do in this game. Even for a more quiet player it's starting to become seriously toilsome.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Yes, you are. The Seer's goal is always to find wolves, first and foremost. Known innocents are the consolation prize.

Okay, here's what got my thoughts in that direction:

Originally Posted by Nilp

(Vzv, I take other people's idea far too often this game cos I went into it with a strategic mindset rather than the usual tactical mindset. I intended to win this game mathematically--which has never been done before, I think, without double/multiple lynching--, which makes me lament I lost two of my Sharingan's targets.)

Pondering the difference between a strategic mindset and a tactical mindset... Winning the game 'mathematically' I assumed to mean that he wanted to win by numbers, not necessarily by a typical strategic style. Yes, obviously you want to find wolves. But another tactic for a seer might be to let the villagers find wolves and you (the seer) give them a list of known ordos to narrow it down. It's cool if you know one wolf, but it's quite frankly more handy to know ordos once the wolf is dead and you've got to figure out what to do next. Otherwise you're still sitting blind.