T-I-G LV Sing when you're winning

[Lariren Shadow]

Oh wow.

I would have never guessed.

I think I need to go through the posts to see for any references to him as the seer and possibly looked at who suspected him.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

I'm in the process of doing that now. Whether the critics guessed he was worth lynching or the cobbler guessed he was worth eying, either way he must have said something worth pursuing.

Well I do it too, anyway. The more the merrier.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I meant to add the more the merrier to that...

I'm at work, as an explanation for why I might post things like unfinished sentences.

"And that's why I suspect"

Um, Fea, who do you suspect? "Oh, sorry, somebody wanted to learn how EBSCO works and then somebody was trying to check out a copy of Ballet Shoes."

[the phantom]

I wouldn't be surprised if TGWBS was Walter's Night 2 spying pick.

[Aganzir]

Fea, I actually find it rather amusing that the two people tgwbs listed as the most suspicious are analysing his posts now.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I agree, Agan. I'm vaguely counting the number of times he said to lynch both of us, rolling my eyes and wondering if somebody who won't be viewed as having a vested interest in this is also analyzing.

Phantom, as our resident ish-objective observer, you want to figure out what's what with us?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Oh, I missed it- Lari's looking.

Good. I liked her last batch of analytic posts. They were so concise and informative. Awesome. That's my girl! (That said as the roomie who frequently proof reads her academic papers for her.)

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Fea

Phantom, as our resident ish-objective observer, you want to figure out what's what with us?

You don't want my opinion, Fea. Trust me.

I'll still give it. But the news probably isn't good.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by the phantom

You don't want my opinion, Fea. Trust me.

I'll still give it. But the news probably isn't good.

I'll guess, shall I?

Any sane person who reads Jay's list of people to kill should automatically think "We really need to lynch Fea and Agan, stat."

Because he frequently points to us as distinctly dangerous, voted for me twice (though retracted once), and said time and again, "Even if she's not a critic, she should still die."

Regardless of my role, while analyzing his posts, I would argue that he didn't dream of me and merely wanted to lynch me because he always wants to lynch me. Either I'd be saying that as an innocent who knew that my schpiel was true, or I'd be saying it as a bad guy who wanted to manipulate the village by pointing out hypotheticals.

I claimed jokingly on day one that I am a critic. It was suggested that any time I say on day one that I'm a critic, I must be.

I am the single most suspicious villager at the time, and I should't expect to survive the Day.

Sound about right?

[the phantom]

Possibilities...

1) Walter viewed TGWBS on Night 2. The info was received by the Critics last Night and they acted upon it.

2) The Critics came to believe on their own that TGWBS was the Seer.

Implications of option 1-
Fea would then be the likely Walter candidate, dreamed of on Night 1. But then who was the Night 2 dream? Critic Agan? An innocent Boro or Kath? But both Fea-Agan and Boro-Kath were listed in pairs as "most guilty" and "most innocent". Would TGWBS pair a certain with an uncertain? Unless his Fea vote was meant to separate her from Agan despite the pairing. Which opens up the possibility that I was his Night 2 dream.

Implications of option 2-
This would be possible if both Boro and Kath are innocent, but even more likely if Fea and Agan are both guilty. One on each list perhaps? Only if Fea is guilty, I would say. If he pegged only a guilty Agan, I can't imagine Agan being that touchy about it. Unless she feared that Fea was Walter, of course.

Option 3, which I hope is not what happened-
TGWBS, in order to remain hidden through the first couple days, gave no clear clues, or even incorrect clues, about his dreams. But through bad fortune Walter dreamed him and he was done in before he could tell us what we really thought.

Option 1 strikes me as the most likely, largely due to TGWBS's statement on Day 1-

Originally Posted by TGWBS

++FEANOR

Even if she not wolf, she deserve!

Now, this would seem to say "Fea=Walter".

And if she is indeed Walter, I can see why she might spy him the following Night. And then that info gets passed on and he is slain the Night after.

Unless of course he worded it that way because she is a Critic (to avoid detection). This would mesh better with the attempt on my life Night 2. For if she is indeed Walter, wouldn't she have spied me Night 1? And then the Critics receive her report, which I presume would read "Walter found Phantom to be- The Opera Ghost". And if that's what they received, why would they kill me? Surely they wouldn't think "The Opera Ghost" meant "Seer", and certainly not "Divo". They definitely wouldn't try and kill a supsected invincible Divo.

Unless- they believed I was one of the Lovers, as I was indeed pretending to be. And they saw that I had asked for my "Christine" to step up, and so they believed that "Opera Ghost" was simply the designation for one of the Lovers.

Thoughts?

EDIT: x-post Agan/Fea

[Boromir88]

His first post of the game's an interesting one:

Wild man say: Drive Fea, drive phantom out with sharp iron! Tricksy folk cause headache, even if innocent.

It would suggest either Fea or phantom, to likely Day 1 choices. Seems frustrated by their tricks, but it's a pretty clear statement of innocence.

Menel - Why not drive out tricksy headache-maker? Someone must die. We know not who is critic. Ergo, it best to kill tricksy folk.

This from post 37 would also suggest that his Day 1 dream was not a wolf.

Wild Man feel phantom speaks logic. But phantom indeed tricksy. Menel correct, perhaps phantom cobbler. But Wild Man believe not.~post 73

Not sure what to make of this one about tp, whether tp was his Day 1 dream and he was trying to say he was innocent, without blatantly saying so, or if he didn't know/just believed it.

His 113 post, is a list. There is a little more direct statement regarding tp:

phantom - talk much. phantom talk wise, but phantom always talk wise! Ergo Wild Man not know what think. Wisdom not sign of innocence, but Wild Man think - and hope - he innocent.

This is a little stronger statement than the rest. For example, for myself and Nogrod he says he's "inclined to think" we're innocent.

He wants Fea lynched, for making his head hurt:

Feanor Peredhillion - Make Wild Man head hurt. Say nothing of use. Wild Man want lynch.

And he is wary of Mac, says Brinn is bad for not suspecting anyone, more likely to trust Cailin than some others, and everyone else is in the middle.

More wariness about Fea

Feanor list no make Wild Man feel any better. Feanor suspect nobody. Feanor give no real information. Frivolous.~post 127

In 137, doesn't want to vote Gollum, says appetite for Fea is small not her. There is this about Kath:

Therefore Wild Man say to self: vote Kath!

Now Kath come. Kath say she post again perhaps. Therefore cannot yet vote Kath.

Even if she not wolf, she deserve!

In 157, he votes Fea, based on the headache/tricks/being Fea. He does later retract the vote and votes Menel. I would assume this would take Fea out of the Night 1 dream.

My conclusion is his Night 1 dream did not find a critic, and it was tp. A highly likely choice, and tp was the only one he made moderately confident statements of innocence from the start of the day until the end.

Onto Night 2

Edit: crossed with A LOT of people

[Gollum the Great]

Ummm.... Hi!

Ten thousand pardons for yesterday's absence, I was whisked away from the web and dumped elsewhere.

Ok... so Brinn considers me susceptible of suspiciousness?

Gollum: Hasn't shown up yet toDay. I understand he was behind yesterDay, but some of the posts he made indicate he was reading the most recent posts and should've known it was close between two candidates. Even if he didn't have a strong opinion on either, voting for someone who turns out to be innocent is better than letting a double lynch occur in my opinion. If he had abstained early in the Day, or his vote wouldn't have mattered anyway, it's not quite so bad. But he was there at a time where every vote was critical and at that point had read at least part of the Day...so I find the fact that he chose not to rather upsetting.

Allow me to point out that you based your charge on opinion, which hardly constitutes guilt.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

I agree, Agan. I'm vaguely counting the number of times he said to lynch both of us

Hmm I don't think he ever said he wanted to lynch me.

edit: xed with Fea

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Hmm I don't think he ever said he wanted to lynch me.

Most guilty: Fea and Aganzir. Twice.

I mean, he certainly wanted me lynched, but that doesn't make it any less apparent that he thought you were quite a threat to the village.

Which dream makes more sense: waste a dream on self-destructive nutjob Fea who will get herself lynched 'just in case' by day three anyway, or use a dream on a quietly dangerous lower-level threat who is likely to skate through without ever raising more than a trickle of suspicion?

I know how I work as a seer.

I'd never bother dreaming of myself. Or the phantom. I'd assume they'd die off without my bother. Nog I'd dream of. Agan, Boro, Brinn, Mac. Those types. The dangerous ones who are capable of standing off to the side of those who go down in a haze of gory.

[Aganzir]

I'd dream of you before me, just because you're always so hard to figure out. And at least in the game we were wolves together you were rather a quietly dangerous lower-level threat than a self-destructive nutjob.

Yeah Mac the seer got a dream on night 1.

I thought it was possible he had dreamed of you and found you innocent on night 2 although he put you to the suspicion category at first. It wouldn't get so much attention if he gradually moved you to the innocent lot. I don't know how likely that is though.

I'm rather baffled about him writing our names on the same line. If he was equally certain about both of us, it'd mean he hadn't dreamed of either, but his constant suspicions against Fea indicate otherwise.

edit: xed with Boro & Gollum