Game Thread: Werewolf- this time it's real!

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

So... at the start of the Day, when I was getting quite sleepy, thanks quite possibly to alcohol and smoke and a week of too little sleep--well, at that point I was all post-happy and could feel the ideas for analysis sitting just out of conscious thought.

Now it's midday, and I can't think of a single constructive thing to say... so I'm just popping to note that I'm here, and I'm planning on being back toward the last hour or two of toDay, but I'll be gone until then (Final exams and 3 hour drive...).

Don't do anything stupid. Please?

Define stupid.


Incidentally, unless I misunderstood (which is highly possible) Kent thought of Kuru as a cobbler, yet he was determined to see Kuru go. Not that I'm advocating leaving the cobbler around to create further problems, but why waste so much effort on a Kuru-cobbler when there's wolves to be caught? Seems either a bit counterintuitive or a lot evil. Take your pick.

[Gwathagor]

Well, if you CAN'T find a wolf, but you CAN find a cobbler, then it makes sense to vote the cobbler - something is better than nothing. I do agree, of course, that wolves take priority.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Well, if you CAN'T find a wolf, but you CAN find a cobbler, then it makes sense to vote the cobbler - something is better than nothing. I do agree, of course, that wolves take priority.

Very good point. I'm just concerned by the fact that Kent was after Kuru for perhaps being the cobbler and didn't seem to be bothered much by everyone else. Maybe I'm just paranoid or something.

*shrugs*

Also, good point a few posts above about Grima wanting people to use their bonus votes. I wouldn't want everyone to use them, but I think if at some point in the game there's only a couple ordos with all their bonus votes Vamp Girl might kill 'em and suck 'em dry. That was my only real concern. Although I'm still worried both about people who use them frivolously (aka use 6 or so in a Day, not that it's a problem so much a possible indication that they've got more than we think they do) or people who intentionally are holding them not for just the right time, but specifically for the end of the game.

[Lariren Shadow]

I'm going to echo what has been said about the bonus votes. Saying that a wolf/vamp is holding on to their votes, while plausible, might not be true. If they were to see a villager that is on to them using their bonus votes to kill that villager wouldn't be a bad idea. That way they could, conceivably, get two kills in one Day. Maybe looking at those who used their bonus votes already might not be a bad idea.

I for one am saving mine till I feel really sure of someone's guilt.

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

Aside from giving us some theories to work from, this level of theorycrafting will put pressure on the wolves because they will be forced to talk too and they will have to do one of two things. They will either have to band more closely together in the things they say, thus making themselves ripe for being wiped out all at once, or they will fragment in some way and one way or another help us kill their fellows to save their own skins. Wolf kills are what we need right now and I am not in the least averse to wolf on wolf violence.

This is just one instance but why are we assuming that the baddies are the quiet ones? I know why I've been quiet, and I'm going to respect the rules about not talking about RL stuff. This whole "let's look at the quiet ones" thing, excluding when Kuru says it, seems like a good way for the wolves/vamp to get more innocents killed. While there is a probability that, in the quiet ones, there is a baddie, there is the same probability that there is a baddie among the vocal ones. Limiting the suspicions to just the quiet ones is a good way for a vocal baddie to hide.

At some point toDay I will be doing the whole long theories post like Kuru said we should.

[Kent2010]

While I agree that some of the baddies are surely saving up their votes, I really don't like the way you're implying that everyone who hasn't used a bonus vote is automatically suspicious.
-Brinn

Now, about this bonus vote stuff. I agree with Brinn - meanwhile it does seem like a sensible thing for the baddies to do to spare their bonus votes, that doesn't mean that it wouldn't be sensible for an innocent too.
-Greenie

I'm going to echo what has been said about the bonus votes. Saying that a wolf/vamp is holding on to their votes, while plausible, might not be true.
-Lariren

This is interesting...three defenses for keeping onto the bonus votes. So, how to seperate the unsure innocent holding on to the boni until necessary from the wolves harvesting them?

Because I think Nogrod's essential point is that currently over half the village (7 of 13) has all of their bonus votes and 9 of 13 has over 7. That is quite a disparity. And he's not saying if you have 10 bonus votes you are a wolf, but he's saying there are wolves clutching onto their bonus as Smaug does with treasure.

If you take out the universal innocent Kuru, and I count myself out because I'm an ordo, that is 9/11 with over 7 bonus, and 7/11 with all 10. There are two ways we can solve this disparity.

One, lynch the people with 6 and under, that would get rid of the gap in bonus, but I doubt that will work, because I'm innocent and I still see no reason to think Nogrod is a baddie.

Or two we start applying pressure to those who have lots of bonus, that will even the levels back down, and based on the huge proportion of people with all their bonus still left, there is one if not multiple baddies.

I also think some of you are being a bit too defensive about what Nogrod is saying regarding bonus votes. It does not sound like he's saying if you have 10 bonus you are a wolf and we will lynch you, he's focusing the field. The fact is over half the people still have all there bonus, and its faulty to disregard that fact by saying "well yes there could be a wolf here, but there could not be as well!"

x'ed with Nogrod and Greenie

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Kent2010

Because I think Nogrod's essential point is that currently over half the village (7 of 13) has all of their bonus votes and 9 of 13 has over 7. That is quite a disparity. And he's not saying if you have 10 bonus votes you are a wolf, but he's saying there are wolves clutching onto their bonus as Smaug does with treasure.

This is likely the case, but I ought to point out that an important element of our defense against wolves-with-lots-of-bonus-votes will be innocents-with-lots-of-bonus-votes.

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

This is just one instance but why are we assuming that the baddies are the quiet ones?

I'm not. While I admit that at the moment I very much suspect that the debates thus far have largely missed the actual wolves entirely that doesn't mean that I am assuming they have been quiet.

I don't really want anybody to be assuming anything about anybody. We need analysis and facts. Everyone should be giving *everybody* else a hard look, and when I say everyone I mean everyone...loud, quiet, tall, short, thin, fat...whatever.

*jabs a sharp object at Form*

What do you mean you don't have any idea about what to say? You're smart and you've talked almost more than anybody else in this thread.

*removes the booze and smokes far from where Form is*

I was a bit reluctant to do this because I *don't* want everyone following me around like lemmings because I don't really know more than anybody else but since people seem more interested in doing more self-justification I guess I'll go ahead and do a quick overview to get us started.

Brinniel - Deeply Suspicious. Her help throughout has been less than helpful when it comes down to it. She is exhibiting a lot of those troubling "be visible but nowhere near the forefront" signs. If I was voting right now I'd vote for her.

Fea - Where is she toDay? Some of her actions, like her vote for Nogrod are really beginning to strike me as more than a little bit creepy. Course she always strikes me as creepy...

Form - I'm beginning to grow troubled about Form. For the most part I have thought that he is innocent, but at the same time I'm disturbed by just how much he has managed to blend into the background. This is almost never good. Right at the moment I'm having some very disturbing visions of a possible Form/Nilp axis that I am not liking the implications of at all. Not that I really have anything concrete to back it up, its just a thought that has flashed through my mind.

Green - I have to admit that I don't totally follow Nogrod's suspicions about her...but the fact that Nog is so suspicious of her is enough to make me wary. I personally think we have bigger fish to fry than her though.

Gwath - Deeply Suspicious. He, like Brinn, is one who's help has proved to be less than actually helpful. His behavior yesterDay at the end was very troubling what with him appearing to egg on the Kent vs. Kuru situation and then his not voting by reason of fright. Another theory is that he was hoping not to leave any fingerprints. He's been talky today but not really offered anything useful at the time I'm typing this.

Izzy - Kind of below my mental radar right now...which is causing all sorts of warning klaxons to go off in my head. I'm hoping some others will have some more substantial things to say about her.

Kent - Mostly now I think he's innocent given the hyperactivity of his defense yesterday. That did bear signs of an innocent falsely accused and thinking he's on to something...alas...he wasn't. :\ Still don't trust him, though.

Lari - Another one who is kind of beneath my mental radar. *cue warning klaxons* For some reason they aren't going off as loudly about her as about Izzy...but there is no rational reason for that. Don't have any fix on her.

Nilp - The other half of my feared Form/Nilp axis that I'm kinda worried about. If it is them or one of them we may be done for because we are running out of time to test theories. He's appeared helpful...and yet weird at the same time, but that is kinda normal. Definitely kind of has that blending into the background feel for me at least.

Nogrod - I think he is innocent. He's the one I feel most confident about being innocent. If he's a wolf then, quite frankly, its getting to the point where he deserves the win and my hat will be unreservedly off to him for it.

Sally - Deeply suspicious. Her help has also not been particularly helpful and she didn't vote yesterDay. I will say that in my mind it is a mitigating circumstance that Brinn voted for her. If Brinn turns out to be innocent I'd definitely want to lynch Sally.

Shasta - I don't trust him at all, but he's been around so little that it feels like we have bigger fish to fry than him.

Right now my mind is focused on a Brinn - Gwath combination with the third wolf not really clear to me, or secondarily a Form - Nilp combination also with the third wolf unclear.

I'm struggling with that third wolf.

It could also be some other combination of the above.

Anyway, its time for me to head back to work and that's where things are for me right now.

Get posting!

xed with everyone since 470

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nog

It's about time some people opened their mouths and stopped hiding in the shadows trying deliberately not to displease anyone but the one they vote *coughGreeniecough*

What's this about? "Hiding in the shadows" should be translated as "being busy with school stuff" and "Trying not to displease anyone but the one they vote" as "having no time to concentrate on many people and thus using the time you have to look at someone more properly - and not feeling good about what you find there". I think we've had this discussion before but everyone doesn't have the time to be as vocal as you and that shouldn't be anything to get upset about. Unless you'd like to establish some hardcore-ww game where everyone has to post at least 30 posts and suspect the minimum of seven people a day, you should accept that everyone just isn't able to post as actively as you'd like. Sorry to sound heated, but I don't particularly like that accusatory tone you always have when talking about someone who, for one reason or another, plays with a different style than you do.

Back soon with a list...


EDIT: x-ed with Lari

[Nogrod]

It's good I had a cigarette first before sending this one. I wrote quite a rant and a disclaimer of some eloquence but have now deleted it and will only say this.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Sorry to sound heated, but I don't particularly like that accusatory tone you always have when talking about someone who, for one reason or another, plays with a different style than you do.

I have nothing against different tactics. No. Everyone may play as they will.

But everyone should be ready to face the consequences of not giving themselves into the game and thus being looked on as suspicious by those others who actually play or see it that way.

One may play as she wishes but she can't protest if someone thinks her guilty because of that. One should be able to play as she wishes, but also able to suspect others just the way she wishes.

Or do you want to say that playing-styles are free but ways to suspect are not?

[Nogrod]

Kuru! Are you just "a phantom" or do you have votes that count?

That would be nice to know.

[Kent2010]

I find this rather weird. If you think someone to be the seer there's no good reason to state it publicly. Maybe the wolves already picked up on it, but maybe not and you just gave it away. The fact that she feels the need to defend her statement suggesting that Agan may be the seer in that same post is even more concerning.

Though it's also possible this was a ploy and Firefoot was trying to make the wolves think Agan was the seer when she really just believed her to be an ordo so that they would Night kill her. This scenario has occurred before. But I've never played with Firefoot before, so I don't know if she is the type of player to come up with such a ploy.
-Brinn in #383

This is peculiar, particularly that 2nd paragraph. The 1st paragraph is a typical reaction to Firefoot pointing out Agan could be the seer on Day 1. But the 2nd paragraph, yesterday is peculiar because Firefoot was killed.

Brinn's 'alternate scenario' is Firefoot was trying to make the wolves think Agan was the seer and the wolves would target her - and that this wouldn't be the first time. I'm not quite sure what situation Brinn is referring to, but is this an early glance of the wolves discussion last night in picking Firefoot? The 2nd scenario is just odd, because how would Firefoot know Agan was not the seer, believe Agan was an ordo, and decide to set her up as the seer for the wolves to go after that night - if Firefoot was not the seer herself?

I am going under the assumption that the wolves primary person they want out of the way is the seer, so the alternate scenario is really strange considering Firefoot was killed last night.

One of my disagreements with Nilp's analysis over Firefoot's post is this:

329
Wonders about Nog's DAY 1 vote (something that Izzy questioned about, too, but Nog brushed it off.) Thought that Kuru was just a safe vote for Nog and that the real target was Nienna. Calls his voting sloppy.

Comments on Nog's 313 (a comment on Kuru's 311, where he thought Kuru's explanation of the NIGHT kill seemed to be 'a post trying to convince us he's no baddie'.) She said that Nog wasn't suspicious of Kuru yesterday, and that Nog's analysis of the possibility of Kuru's wolvishness wasn't forthcoming.

Indicates her suspicion of Nogrod, but holds it back by saying that her suspicion comes from his being talkative. Comments on Kent's obsession with his newbie status.

Perhaps the post that killed her, if we go with the assumption that the Evil Three are hunting Lúthien . . .

I have a problem with this, if the wolves believed Firefoot was the seer, and that's why she was killed, I would not just look at who she attacked (mostly Nogrod yesterday) but who she defended might be just as important. If she defended someone pretty strongly, that could also be a tip off to the wolves, making them believe Firefoot was the seer.

x'ed with Brinn and Greenie

[Brinniel]

Okay, I do want to respond to you Nogrod as I disagree with you and am irritated on many levels. But I have somewhere to be shortly, so it'll have to wait a few hours. Perhaps that's a good thing for you because I'm feeling extremely peeved right now. I'm actually tempted to use all of my bonus votes on you toDay just to prove I'm not "disinterested" and "safe." But even if you are a wolf, what good would that be for the village? Someone mentioned that forcing everyone to use their bonus votes may prove disastrous if innocents feel pressured to use them on someone they don't strongly suspect just so they don't get lynched. As for me, I worry I might waste my votes by letting emotion cloud my judgment. Right now I can't tell if I'm suspicious of you because I'm suspicious or if I find you suspicious because I'm angry with you.

Btw, if you lynch someone with 10 votes and they turn out to be an innocent...you just took away 10 bonus votes from the village, which gives the wolves the advantage. Since seven people haven't used their bonus votes yet, lynching wrongly would be very easy to do toDay.

Great...now I'm probably gonna be late for where I need to be. See, you really shouldn't mess with a girl who's PMSing right now...

[Nogrod]

Cool down Brinn, this is only a game. And you know I love you: this is pretty straightforwards, no sarcasm or smilies included.

It's only that in this game I have reasons to believe you have a role of a baddie.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I'm actually tempted to use all of my bonus votes on you toDay just to prove I'm not "disinterested" and "safe." But even if you are a wolf, what good would that be for the village?

Now this is interesting. If you would manage to bag a wolf - what good would that be?
*Ponders about it: what good would there be of lynching a wolf toDay? Hard to see... what good would there be? *

Someone mentioned that forcing everyone to use their bonus votes may prove disastrous if innocents feel pressured to use them on someone they don't strongly suspect just so they don't get lynched.

The baddies will probably kill those innocents with the most votes left by Nights (see Firefoot with ten votes). Also they would like to keep their votes to themselves if they need not use them - and they, unlike us - know when they need to use them. And remember that Thuringwethil may suck ten votes from an innocent the Night before the baddies decide to make their final attack if there is one. Then they will have 40-50 votes to spend on one Day which we innocents can never stand up against.

What to do?

Lynch those with ten votes - or create a general feeling that those having ten votes are the ones in the line for the gallows. Then the wolves need to discharge their votes and - especially if we get one toDay - then we may be able to breathe once more a little.

Those with ten votes are not an asset to the village, they are a threat. They may think in their individual potholes that they are the fighters for freedom but they are the harbringers of doom in many senses.

Just think there are three romantic heroes around with ten votes. One gets killed by Thurnigwethil and her/his ten extra votes are in the possession of the baddies the next Day. Then the two remaining ten-voters disagree with each other who's the wolf and vote different people. That's it. We lose. The wolves know to concentrate their votes on the "right target", we don't.

The extra votes are a threat, not an asset. The extra-votes work for the baddies, not for the village, notwithstanding how important you would feel yourself to be armed with a host of extra-votes to save yourself or to make the genious saving vote for the village. You will not be given that chance. How many times do I need to say this?

You're like these guys with a metal objects in their pocket thinking you will protect yourself and all of the others here heroically when your neighbours have those objects as well. But when some of your neighbours bring forwards a F-16 they have built together from their objects, it's over forbyou individuals only having the pieces in your hand.

But if you take off the supplies form all, then you stand a chance for a fair fist-fight.

Sorry, this romantic ideal of individuals fighting off the evil as loners doesn't work here any more than it does in reality. The baddies work as a collective and they can decide on the spot with all the knowledgwe and communication between themselves how to use their votes. We can't.

As for me, I worry I might waste my votes by letting emotion cloud my judgment. Right now I can't tell if I'm suspicious of you because I'm suspicious or if I find you suspicious because I'm angry with you.

Calm down, will you? If you're innocent we need your calm decision, not you proving how "decisive" you can be.

But you should actually convince us - well me at least - why what I said about your actions in the end of Day2 are not true to begin with. Getting angry or hurt is one way of trying to do it but I have seen such shows that this is not quite enough (remember Rikae back then really bringing all of us others to tears with her show - but many enough of us stood firm and lynched her, as the baddie she turned out to be).

EDIT: X'd with Izzy x2

[A Little Green]

Brinniel (10) -Seems innocentish and I agree with her a lot. (Not that that means anything - I've been saying that about her in every game we've played together, regardless of her role...)

Fea (6) - Quite frankly I have no idea about her. I'd love to have a look at her if I have the time. Her vote yesterDay was weird because it wasn't explained in any way whatsoever. She did mention earlier that her attention was on Nog because of his Day 1 vote, but unless I missed something she didn't voice suspicion on him anywhere else.

Formendacil (10) - He still seems innocent and speaks good sense.

Gwath (10) - His Day 1 vote made me raise eyebrows, as did his lack of vote on Day 2. His posting has looked okay otherwise.

Izzy (8) - I have no idea whatsoever. She's so securely under my radar that I begin to get worried. She's another I'd love to look at.

Kent (5) - Seems innocent. Can't put it better than that.

Kuruharan (6) - I don't know why I included him in the list in the first place since we know what he is. Nice guy.

Lari (10) - As securely under my radar as Izzy. She has pretty much escaped my attention this far. I'll look at her if I have the time.

Nilp (7) - Sometimes I just don't get where he's coming from, with all that stuff about Sally's "slips" (none of which looked like wolf slips to me) and post counts. I don't know about him, but he's at least someone I will keep an eye on.

Nogrod (5) - I'm trying to get past my irritation with him () and analyse him objectively. I'm still behind everything I said about him yesterDay. His Day 1 vote still seems very fishy to me. Also, I don't see the logic behind his theory on how everyone should consume their votes as soon as possible. Or rather, I can see it serving a purpose if he's evil, but not otherwise.

Sally (10) - I don't have much of a read on her either, but there's nothing about her that makes me wary.

Shasta (10) - I understand he's been busy, but that doesn't make his Day 2 vote any less strange. Actually, Shasta - you said your vote was random between the three people you suspected. Who were the three and on what grounds did you suspect them? Form was one, obviously, I guess I was another, but who was the third? Yeah, but I don't know about Shasta. He speaks sense at times, and at times he behaves weirdly.

Any conclusions? Most of the people are apparently either "no idea" or "either innocent or wolf". In other words, looks much like my lists always do. I'll probably vote in an hour or so and go to sleep. As yet I don't know who to vote for, though.


EDIT: x-ed since my last - oh my, what novels these guys are writing!