Game Thread: Werewolf- this time it's real!

[Lariren Shadow]

I'm going to echo what has been said about the bonus votes. Saying that a wolf/vamp is holding on to their votes, while plausible, might not be true. If they were to see a villager that is on to them using their bonus votes to kill that villager wouldn't be a bad idea. That way they could, conceivably, get two kills in one Day. Maybe looking at those who used their bonus votes already might not be a bad idea.

I for one am saving mine till I feel really sure of someone's guilt.

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

Aside from giving us some theories to work from, this level of theorycrafting will put pressure on the wolves because they will be forced to talk too and they will have to do one of two things. They will either have to band more closely together in the things they say, thus making themselves ripe for being wiped out all at once, or they will fragment in some way and one way or another help us kill their fellows to save their own skins. Wolf kills are what we need right now and I am not in the least averse to wolf on wolf violence.

This is just one instance but why are we assuming that the baddies are the quiet ones? I know why I've been quiet, and I'm going to respect the rules about not talking about RL stuff. This whole "let's look at the quiet ones" thing, excluding when Kuru says it, seems like a good way for the wolves/vamp to get more innocents killed. While there is a probability that, in the quiet ones, there is a baddie, there is the same probability that there is a baddie among the vocal ones. Limiting the suspicions to just the quiet ones is a good way for a vocal baddie to hide.

At some point toDay I will be doing the whole long theories post like Kuru said we should.

[Kent2010]

While I agree that some of the baddies are surely saving up their votes, I really don't like the way you're implying that everyone who hasn't used a bonus vote is automatically suspicious.
-Brinn

Now, about this bonus vote stuff. I agree with Brinn - meanwhile it does seem like a sensible thing for the baddies to do to spare their bonus votes, that doesn't mean that it wouldn't be sensible for an innocent too.
-Greenie

I'm going to echo what has been said about the bonus votes. Saying that a wolf/vamp is holding on to their votes, while plausible, might not be true.
-Lariren

This is interesting...three defenses for keeping onto the bonus votes. So, how to seperate the unsure innocent holding on to the boni until necessary from the wolves harvesting them?

Because I think Nogrod's essential point is that currently over half the village (7 of 13) has all of their bonus votes and 9 of 13 has over 7. That is quite a disparity. And he's not saying if you have 10 bonus votes you are a wolf, but he's saying there are wolves clutching onto their bonus as Smaug does with treasure.

If you take out the universal innocent Kuru, and I count myself out because I'm an ordo, that is 9/11 with over 7 bonus, and 7/11 with all 10. There are two ways we can solve this disparity.

One, lynch the people with 6 and under, that would get rid of the gap in bonus, but I doubt that will work, because I'm innocent and I still see no reason to think Nogrod is a baddie.

Or two we start applying pressure to those who have lots of bonus, that will even the levels back down, and based on the huge proportion of people with all their bonus still left, there is one if not multiple baddies.

I also think some of you are being a bit too defensive about what Nogrod is saying regarding bonus votes. It does not sound like he's saying if you have 10 bonus you are a wolf and we will lynch you, he's focusing the field. The fact is over half the people still have all there bonus, and its faulty to disregard that fact by saying "well yes there could be a wolf here, but there could not be as well!"

x'ed with Nogrod and Greenie

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Kent2010

Because I think Nogrod's essential point is that currently over half the village (7 of 13) has all of their bonus votes and 9 of 13 has over 7. That is quite a disparity. And he's not saying if you have 10 bonus votes you are a wolf, but he's saying there are wolves clutching onto their bonus as Smaug does with treasure.

This is likely the case, but I ought to point out that an important element of our defense against wolves-with-lots-of-bonus-votes will be innocents-with-lots-of-bonus-votes.

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

This is just one instance but why are we assuming that the baddies are the quiet ones?

I'm not. While I admit that at the moment I very much suspect that the debates thus far have largely missed the actual wolves entirely that doesn't mean that I am assuming they have been quiet.

I don't really want anybody to be assuming anything about anybody. We need analysis and facts. Everyone should be giving *everybody* else a hard look, and when I say everyone I mean everyone...loud, quiet, tall, short, thin, fat...whatever.

*jabs a sharp object at Form*

What do you mean you don't have any idea about what to say? You're smart and you've talked almost more than anybody else in this thread.

*removes the booze and smokes far from where Form is*

I was a bit reluctant to do this because I *don't* want everyone following me around like lemmings because I don't really know more than anybody else but since people seem more interested in doing more self-justification I guess I'll go ahead and do a quick overview to get us started.

Brinniel - Deeply Suspicious. Her help throughout has been less than helpful when it comes down to it. She is exhibiting a lot of those troubling "be visible but nowhere near the forefront" signs. If I was voting right now I'd vote for her.

Fea - Where is she toDay? Some of her actions, like her vote for Nogrod are really beginning to strike me as more than a little bit creepy. Course she always strikes me as creepy...

Form - I'm beginning to grow troubled about Form. For the most part I have thought that he is innocent, but at the same time I'm disturbed by just how much he has managed to blend into the background. This is almost never good. Right at the moment I'm having some very disturbing visions of a possible Form/Nilp axis that I am not liking the implications of at all. Not that I really have anything concrete to back it up, its just a thought that has flashed through my mind.

Green - I have to admit that I don't totally follow Nogrod's suspicions about her...but the fact that Nog is so suspicious of her is enough to make me wary. I personally think we have bigger fish to fry than her though.

Gwath - Deeply Suspicious. He, like Brinn, is one who's help has proved to be less than actually helpful. His behavior yesterDay at the end was very troubling what with him appearing to egg on the Kent vs. Kuru situation and then his not voting by reason of fright. Another theory is that he was hoping not to leave any fingerprints. He's been talky today but not really offered anything useful at the time I'm typing this.

Izzy - Kind of below my mental radar right now...which is causing all sorts of warning klaxons to go off in my head. I'm hoping some others will have some more substantial things to say about her.

Kent - Mostly now I think he's innocent given the hyperactivity of his defense yesterday. That did bear signs of an innocent falsely accused and thinking he's on to something...alas...he wasn't. :\ Still don't trust him, though.

Lari - Another one who is kind of beneath my mental radar. *cue warning klaxons* For some reason they aren't going off as loudly about her as about Izzy...but there is no rational reason for that. Don't have any fix on her.

Nilp - The other half of my feared Form/Nilp axis that I'm kinda worried about. If it is them or one of them we may be done for because we are running out of time to test theories. He's appeared helpful...and yet weird at the same time, but that is kinda normal. Definitely kind of has that blending into the background feel for me at least.

Nogrod - I think he is innocent. He's the one I feel most confident about being innocent. If he's a wolf then, quite frankly, its getting to the point where he deserves the win and my hat will be unreservedly off to him for it.

Sally - Deeply suspicious. Her help has also not been particularly helpful and she didn't vote yesterDay. I will say that in my mind it is a mitigating circumstance that Brinn voted for her. If Brinn turns out to be innocent I'd definitely want to lynch Sally.

Shasta - I don't trust him at all, but he's been around so little that it feels like we have bigger fish to fry than him.

Right now my mind is focused on a Brinn - Gwath combination with the third wolf not really clear to me, or secondarily a Form - Nilp combination also with the third wolf unclear.

I'm struggling with that third wolf.

It could also be some other combination of the above.

Anyway, its time for me to head back to work and that's where things are for me right now.

Get posting!

xed with everyone since 470