WW LX - Mortal Men, doomed to die

[Nogrod]

In a comment to your #321 I had basically raised those issues in my #306. Although I know she is not the seer which you naturally can't know.

But I need to ask you Shasta a question.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Sally is an Ordo, lying to protect Nogrod-seer. In this case, you are right; Sally could not know for sure that Lhuna is a wolf.However, there is no reason for Sally to make such a claim without some sort of knowledge. In this case, Lhuna is still much more likely to be a wolf than an innocent simply because it would be A: suicidal and B: insanely stupid for Sally to claim such for no reason (and she's not insanely stupid, nor is she suicidal as far as I know).

Now what kind of knowledge might that be that an ordo would have? What kind of other "knowledge" is there around? Why are you speculating with impossibilities?

Originally Posted by Shasta

Sally is a Wraith, lying to protect another Wraith or attempting to undermine Nogrod-seer. In this case, calling out Lhuna as a Wraith is, in the most probable case, a way to both make Sally look innocent and back up her claim as Seer and sacrifice an already-suspected comrade.

If Sally is a baddie we should lynch the person she claims to be a baddie? Because Sally is not suicidal? If you think Sally is trying to make her mate in crime look bad to make herself look good why don't you say let's lynch Sally first - and let's consider Lhuna then if Sally turns out to be a wolf? Why are yu so keen to lynch the "implication" (eg. whom Sally suspects) over from who actually says something she can't know for sure (unless she is a baddie which should be reason enough to lynch her)?

Also to be noted is that, should Lhuna actually turn out innocent once lynched, we would immediately proceed to lynch Sally the day after and, as I have already said, Sally's not suicidal.

Why the marching order should be this? Sally lies. If she's not a baddie she can't have "any sort of knowledge" on her.

You have been counting, haven't you? If we lynch an innocent toDay you wolves have a much better future, but if we get one of you toDay your future looks very grim indeed. So let's try Lhuna first, right?

Funny, I was quite sure Lhuna was evil a few hours ago, but thanks to your campaign Shasta I'm beginning to think the contrary. Not because you suspect Lhuna but becasue you support Sally so heavily...


Sorry Shasta: I'm still "late" with my arguments. I'll try to catch up...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

You seem to be fixated on the fact that Sally's claim to be the Seer is absolute proof of her guilt, Nogrod. I'm supporting her because I think there's a chance she could be an ordo attempting to divert attention from the real Seer, there's no one else around to support her, and you seem to be unwilling to consider any theories but the one you've chosen.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

In answer to your question, Nogrod, I think you should be asking Sally that question, because I have no idea. There ought to be something, though; it's quite poor play if she's accusing Lhuna for no reason. All I'm saying is that there is some reason that Sally is accusing Lhuna so heavily, and that it might not be an evil one.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I think you should be asking Sally that question, because I have no idea.

Which question?

Please mate, this is not the first time. What are you referring to? You can't think others will run through the whole thread to find out what are you asking to answer your questions...

Originally Posted by Shasta

You seem to be fixated on the fact that Sally's claim to be the Seer is absolute proof of her guilt

You don't seem to read the thread now do you? I have said this maybe ten times and this will be the last one.

An ordo pretending to be the seer to save the real one would not place another player into danger by claiming she's a wolf. That's far from absolute, but a fairer deduction than some others.

Had she made her list like this:

Okay, so here's what I know.

Brinn: innocent
Nog: innocent
Legate: wolf
XXX: innocent

I might have believed her trying to help. But now in the place of the XXX she had Lhuna as a wolf which she can't know as she's no seer.

So she wanted to get Lhuna lynched although she didn't know what she is. That is no innocent behaviour.

Lhuna maybe a fellow baddie and this is all an opera trying to fool us. But it's Sally we should lynch first as she's the one who clearly lies / tries to fool us. We should consider Lhuna after that.

If you don't understand this argument now, then don't.

Off to bed.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Well. I just thought of something, in any case. I'll throw out on the table that a Sally-Wraith might try to lynch a Lhuna-Ranger during the day, but that's the only explanation I can find for an evil-Sally doing what she did.

I'll be around to vote tomorrow, but I'm going to sit down and shut up because all that's come of me being active today is I've been A) chastised for not being active during the first few days and B) suspected for being active today and bringing an alternative idea to the table.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Well. I just thought of something, in any case. I'll throw out on the table that a Sally-Wraith might try to lynch a Lhuna-Ranger during the day, but that's the only explanation I can find for an evil-Sally doing what she did.

And your explanation for a good Sally doing what she did is...? And don't just repeat your suggestion that she has "some sort of knowledge". If she's an ordo, she can't. The only way you can believe her is by not believing Nogrod... and you say you do believe him!

EDIT: X'd with Shasta.

[satansaloser2005]

Can't talk much now -long day and all that- but before I go to bed.

Everyone (or at least some of you) seem to be forgetting the possibility that I am the seer, Nog is faking (for the good of the village), and that we really should be working together, not against each other, in this matter.


In other news, I'm going to bed. Vote for Lhuna. That is all. Enjoy yourselves until I get back, and I will have further commentary when I'm awake.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

And your explanation for a good Sally going what she did is...? And don't just repeat your suggestion that she has "some sort off knowledge". If she's an ordo, she can't. The only way you can believe her is by not believing Nogrod... and you say you do believe him!

EDIT: X'd with Shasta.

Dearheart, I already said to Nogrod's rather more aggressive version of that same statement, "Ask Sally." I already said I don't claim to know the reason behind Sally's actions. All I'm saying is that there is one, and it's not necessarily evil. I just hate that everyone's accusing Sally out of hand and not even considering the fact that she could be innocent when there is in fact an alternate explanation.

Although I will confess I'm a little irritated that, given a chance to post, Sally said nothing about her reasoning. Here I am being accused of sticking my neck out for her; the least she could have done is be a little more forthright.

[Nerwen]

I'll be out for a few hours, but I'll just leave everyone this quote to ponder:

From yesterDay:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Well. I just thought of something, in any case. I'll throw out on the table that a Sally-Wraith might try to lynch a Lhuna-Ranger during the day, but that's the only explanation I can find for an evil-Sally doing what she did.

Is that in fact why Sally did it, Wraithta Althreduin?

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Talk about bad timing. . . I will have to do alot of writting today and from the looks of it I will also have to defend my self today.

So Lhuna is our Ranger. . .it is a shame that she has revealed her self, a ranger is very nice to have arround in the closing stages. A hunter revealing would have been much nicer, as it is a person the wolves would have to think twice before attacking.

The stage is set and looks like it is going to be a fight between me and Eonwe. Which is odd, because the wraiths have been acting very strange, so I think it is a distinct possebility that Shasta is a wraith that attached him self to Sally. Normally I would guess that the two wraiths left was of the more silent type, but with this bunch anything is possible.

[Nerwen]

Greetings, all. Oh, and welcome to the "known innocent" club, Wilwa. Sorry for suspecting you.

Well, toDay has been... interesting.

I have only skimmed the thread so far (will re-read more thoroughly when I have a moment) but here are my thoughts so far:

Sally is surely a wraith.

1. If she were an innocent trying to draw fire from Nogrod she would not have named Lhuna as a baddie.

2. If her scenario– that she was the Seer and Nogrod an innocent impersonating the Seer– were correct, Nogrod would have confessed by now.

3. Everyone– apart from Nogrod– is either defending her or expressing confusion. Is it likely that not one of the wolves would take advantage of the most perfect chance to lynch an innocent in WW history?

Shasta is probably her fellow

He seems desperate to save her... and knowing he's pretty smart, I don't see how he can honestly believe his own argument. (It relies, after all, on ordo-Sally "somehow" knowing for certain that Lhuna is evil.)

Presumably, the wraith-team thought Sally was likely to be dreamed last Night, and she decided to go down fighting.

Here's the puzzle, though: why did she not accuse Nogrod of being a wraith? It seems to me that that's the only way her plan could have worked.

Did she think he would believe her a well-intentioned ordo, and go along with her in the hope of surviving another Night? But then, why say she dreamt Lhuna? (As I said, an ordo would not do this.)

And what is Lhuna?

Now, the talk has been that maybe she's the wraith sacrifice, and they're hoping she'll get lynched and thus buy Sally some credibility. That would rely on the wraiths killing Nogrod toNight... and on Nogrod going along with Sally toDay. (And also requires the third step of Sally being able to convince us ToMorrow that she really was just an ordo trying to save the Seer.)

Not a plan I'd have cared to try myself.

Or is the whole scheme simply to get an innocent Lhuna lynched, instead of guilty Sally? But again, how could it work once Sally has declared Nogrod innocent?

*brain hurting*

EDIT: X'd with Shasta.
EDIT2:clarification.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I lied. I have a response to Nerwen.

Why would I be desperate to save Sally if she and I were both wraiths, Nerwen? Given that she'll eventually be lynched, that would put a glaring spotlight on me.

And can I say again, I'm not "desperate to save Sally". I simply think there could be an alternate explanation to her actions.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Why would I be desperate to save Sally if she and I were both wraiths, Nerwen? Given that she'll eventually be lynched, that would put a glaring spotlight on me.

Numbers. It's at the stage where it makes quite a difference whether a wraith gets lynched "eventually" or now.

Now, the question of Brinniel–

I don't want to jump to conclusions here, but it strikes me that #341 (while sounding quite reasonable) is consistent with what Brinn would do if the remaining wraiths were herself and Shasta:

1. Throw Sally under the bus.

2. Try to save Shasta.

3. Try to make the village focus again on Lhuna as a lynch-candidate.

EDIT: X'd with Shasta.