WW LX - Mortal Men, doomed to die - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Shastanis Althreduin · 05-08-2009, 08:40 PM

In answer to your question, Nogrod, I think you should be asking Sally that question, because I have no idea. There ought to be something, though; it's quite poor play if she's accusing Lhuna for no reason. All I'm saying is that there is some reason that Sally is accusing Lhuna so heavily, and that it might not be an evil one.

Nogrod · 05-08-2009, 09:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I think you should be asking Sally that question, because I have no idea.

Which question?

Please mate, this is not the first time. What are you referring to? You can't think others will run through the whole thread to find out what are you asking to answer your questions...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shasta

You seem to be fixated on the fact that Sally's claim to be the Seer is absolute proof of her guilt

You don't seem to read the thread now do you? I have said this maybe ten times and this will be the last one.

An ordo pretending to be the seer to save the real one would not place another player into danger by claiming she's a wolf. That's far from absolute, but a fairer deduction than some others.

Had she made her list like this:

Quote:

Okay, so here's what I know.

Brinn: innocent
Nog: innocent
Legate: wolf
XXX: innocent

I might have believed her trying to help. But now in the place of the XXX she had Lhuna as a wolf which she can't know as she's no seer.

So she wanted to get Lhuna lynched although she didn't know what she is. That is no innocent behaviour.

Lhuna maybe a fellow baddie and this is all an opera trying to fool us. But it's Sally we should lynch first as she's the one who clearly lies / tries to fool us. We should consider Lhuna after that.

If you don't understand this argument now, then don't.

Off to bed.

Shastanis Althreduin · 05-08-2009, 10:21 PM

Well. I just thought of something, in any case. I'll throw out on the table that a Sally-Wraith might try to lynch a Lhuna-Ranger during the day, but that's the only explanation I can find for an evil-Sally doing what she did.

I'll be around to vote tomorrow, but I'm going to sit down and shut up because all that's come of me being active today is I've been A) chastised for not being active during the first few days and B) suspected for being active today and bringing an alternative idea to the table.

Nerwen · 05-09-2009, 12:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Well. I just thought of something, in any case. I'll throw out on the table that a Sally-Wraith might try to lynch a Lhuna-Ranger during the day, but that's the only explanation I can find for an evil-Sally doing what she did.

And your explanation for a good Sally doing what she did is...? And don't just repeat your suggestion that she has "some sort of knowledge". If she's an ordo, she can't. The only way you can believe her is by not believing Nogrod... and you say you do believe him!

EDIT: X'd with Shasta.

satansaloser2005 · 05-09-2009, 12:51 AM

Can't talk much now -long day and all that- but before I go to bed.

Everyone (or at least some of you) seem to be forgetting the possibility that I am the seer, Nog is faking (for the good of the village), and that we really should be working together, not against each other, in this matter.

In other news, I'm going to bed. Vote for Lhuna. That is all. Enjoy yourselves until I get back, and I will have further commentary when I'm awake.

satansaloser2005 · 05-09-2009, 01:00 AM

Oh, and to add. I honestly believe that Nog has nothing but good intentions for the village, so if you believe me trust him. Well, at least trust that he's innocent.

Really going to bed now. Good night all!

Brinniel · 05-09-2009, 01:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sally

Everyone (or at least some of you) seem to be forgetting the possibility that I am the seer, Nog is faking (for the good of the village), and that we really should be working together, not against each other, in this matter.

Sorry, but if Nogrod was faking for the good of the village, why would he be considering lynching you? It's possible for an ordo to fake something in order to confuse the wolves, but no one with good intentions would continue to do so to the point where it'd misdirect the Day's lynch. And if Nogrod was just an ordo, then he would know you were the real seer and wouldn't be accusing you of wolvery.

I'm a bit concerned with this sudden suspicion being thrown at Shasta. He's made a weak argument maybe, and with his defenses he seems to only be digging himself deeper. But I've seen an innocent Shasta get lynched for that before. I can understand what he's trying to say, and perhaps his words just got misinterpreted. His latest posts look to me more like they're coming from a frustrated innocent than anything.

I won't consider voting for Lhuna until she posts. She hasn't shown up yet, and I'd like to hear her reaction to all this. Meanwhile, Sally only looks worse to me with that latest posts.

Shastanis Althreduin · 05-09-2009, 01:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

And your explanation for a good Sally going what she did is...? And don't just repeat your suggestion that she has "some sort off knowledge". If she's an ordo, she can't. The only way you can believe her is by not believing Nogrod... and you say you do believe him!

EDIT: X'd with Shasta.

Dearheart, I already said to Nogrod's rather more aggressive version of that same statement, "Ask Sally." I already said I don't claim to know the reason behind Sally's actions. All I'm saying is that there is one, and it's not necessarily evil. I just hate that everyone's accusing Sally out of hand and not even considering the fact that she could be innocent when there is in fact an alternate explanation.

Although I will confess I'm a little irritated that, given a chance to post, Sally said nothing about her reasoning. Here I am being accused of sticking my neck out for her; the least she could have done is be a little more forthright.

Nerwen · 05-09-2009, 02:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I just hate that everyone's accusing Sally out of hand and not even considering the fact that she could be innocent when there is in fact an alternate explanation.

O my beloved, the fact is that I asked you for this "alternative explanation" in the post you quote... and it seems not to be forthcoming.

Do tell me what it is, my darling.

Shastanis Althreduin · 05-09-2009, 02:18 AM

Pearl of my heart, I suppose I haven't stated it in so many words, but it's quite apparent if you read between the lines of what I've been saying. I suppose I could have been remiss in that fact.

Put simply, my darling, it's that an innocent-Sally had a pressing reason to claim Seer when Nogrod is a much better candidate, and the same reason for accusing Lhuna so. As for that reason, you would have to ask Sally.

I will say that the longer Sally withholds this reason, the more inclined I am to side with the majority...

Nerwen · 05-11-2009, 02:03 AM

I'll be out for a few hours, but I'll just leave everyone this quote to ponder:

From yesterDay:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Well. I just thought of something, in any case. I'll throw out on the table that a Sally-Wraith might try to lynch a Lhuna-Ranger during the day, but that's the only explanation I can find for an evil-Sally doing what she did.

Is that in fact why Sally did it, Wraithta Althreduin?

Rune Son of Bjarne · 05-11-2009, 03:13 AM

Talk about bad timing. . . I will have to do alot of writting today and from the looks of it I will also have to defend my self today.

So Lhuna is our Ranger. . .it is a shame that she has revealed her self, a ranger is very nice to have arround in the closing stages. A hunter revealing would have been much nicer, as it is a person the wolves would have to think twice before attacking.

The stage is set and looks like it is going to be a fight between me and Eonwe. Which is odd, because the wraiths have been acting very strange, so I think it is a distinct possebility that Shasta is a wraith that attached him self to Sally. Normally I would guess that the two wraiths left was of the more silent type, but with this bunch anything is possible.

wilwarin538 · 05-11-2009, 06:38 AM

Alright, I'm seeing lots of analysis on the mysterious 5, good good, I'm gonna go back and look at the known baddie posts abit more throughly. Then I shall return...

Nogrod · 05-11-2009, 07:06 AM

For starters...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

So Lhuna is our Ranger. . .it is a shame that she has revealed her self, a ranger is very nice to have arround in the closing stages. A hunter revealing would have been much nicer, as it is a person the wolves would have to think twice before attacking.

You're right about it being good to have a ranger in the end as she could really make a difference but no can do.

But the hunter should really think about the following.

The hunter is one from the four last unknowns as my dreams have turned out plain ordos. So the hunter coming forwards now might be pretty nice indeed as it would reduce our chances of lynching an innocent into 1/3 (three unknowns of which two are wolves) and nice lynching list toMorrow and the Day after if we miss!

Also if a wraith tries a fake-revealment we'd have 100% kill as the hunter could take away the faking villain with her and leave the village as our wraith-killing hero!

What do you say hunter? Your pick!

I'l go reading the thread now. Back with hopefully some more ideas after a while.

wilwarin538 · 05-11-2009, 07:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But the hunter should really think about the following.

The hunter is one from the four last unknowns as my dreams have turned out plain ordos. So the hunter coming forwards now might be pretty nice indeed as it would reduce our chances of lynching an innocent into 1/3 (three unknowns of which two are wolves) and nice lynching list toMorrow and the Day after if we miss!

Also if a wraith tries a fake-revealment we'd have 100% kill as the hunter could take away the faking villain with her and leave the village as our wraith-killing hero!

What do you say hunter? Your pick!

I'l go reading the thread now. Back with hopefully some more ideas after a while.

Oooh, good plan. I was gonna say it earlier but I was scared that it would cause a fake reveal. I hadn`t thought of it that far. Makes sense.

I personally think that is a wonderful idea. Either way though, I believe we have this. There are 9 players,including 2 baddies, 3 unknowns and like 5 known innocents. Is it even possible to lose now?

Alright, I'm gone for real now.

Nerwen · 05-08-2009, 11:30 PM

Greetings, all. Oh, and welcome to the "known innocent" club, Wilwa. Sorry for suspecting you.

Well, toDay has been... interesting.

I have only skimmed the thread so far (will re-read more thoroughly when I have a moment) but here are my thoughts so far:

Sally is surely a wraith.

1. If she were an innocent trying to draw fire from Nogrod she would not have named Lhuna as a baddie.

2. If her scenario– that she was the Seer and Nogrod an innocent impersonating the Seer– were correct, Nogrod would have confessed by now.

3. Everyone– apart from Nogrod– is either defending her or expressing confusion. Is it likely that not one of the wolves would take advantage of the most perfect chance to lynch an innocent in WW history?

Shasta is probably her fellow

He seems desperate to save her... and knowing he's pretty smart, I don't see how he can honestly believe his own argument. (It relies, after all, on ordo-Sally "somehow" knowing for certain that Lhuna is evil.)

Presumably, the wraith-team thought Sally was likely to be dreamed last Night, and she decided to go down fighting.

Here's the puzzle, though: why did she not accuse Nogrod of being a wraith? It seems to me that that's the only way her plan could have worked.

Did she think he would believe her a well-intentioned ordo, and go along with her in the hope of surviving another Night? But then, why say she dreamt Lhuna? (As I said, an ordo would not do this.)

And what is Lhuna?

Now, the talk has been that maybe she's the wraith sacrifice, and they're hoping she'll get lynched and thus buy Sally some credibility. That would rely on the wraiths killing Nogrod toNight... and on Nogrod going along with Sally toDay. (And also requires the third step of Sally being able to convince us ToMorrow that she really was just an ordo trying to save the Seer.)

Not a plan I'd have cared to try myself.

Or is the whole scheme simply to get an innocent Lhuna lynched, instead of guilty Sally? But again, how could it work once Sally has declared Nogrod innocent?

*brain hurting*

EDIT: X'd with Shasta.
EDIT2:clarification.

Shastanis Althreduin · 05-08-2009, 11:57 PM

I lied. I have a response to Nerwen.

Why would I be desperate to save Sally if she and I were both wraiths, Nerwen? Given that she'll eventually be lynched, that would put a glaring spotlight on me.

And can I say again, I'm not "desperate to save Sally". I simply think there could be an alternate explanation to her actions.

Nerwen · 05-09-2009, 01:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Why would I be desperate to save Sally if she and I were both wraiths, Nerwen? Given that she'll eventually be lynched, that would put a glaring spotlight on me.

Numbers. It's at the stage where it makes quite a difference whether a wraith gets lynched "eventually" or now.

Now, the question of Brinniel–

I don't want to jump to conclusions here, but it strikes me that #341 (while sounding quite reasonable) is consistent with what Brinn would do if the remaining wraiths were herself and Shasta:

1. Throw Sally under the bus.

2. Try to save Shasta.

3. Try to make the village focus again on Lhuna as a lynch-candidate.

EDIT: X'd with Shasta.

05-08-2009, 08:40 PM	#1
Shastanis Althreduin Werewolf Psychic Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water. Posts: 2,832	In answer to your question, Nogrod, I think you should be asking Sally that question, because I have no idea. There ought to be something, though; it's quite poor play if she's accusing Lhuna for no reason. All I'm saying is that there is some reason that Sally is accusing Lhuna so heavily, and that it might not be an evil one. __________________ Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV

05-09-2009, 12:51 AM	#5
satansaloser2005 The Sweetest Spoiler Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly Posts: 5,789	Can't talk much now -long day and all that- but before I go to bed. Everyone (or at least some of you) seem to be forgetting the possibility that I am the seer, Nog is faking (for the good of the village), and that we really should be working together, not against each other, in this matter. In other news, I'm going to bed. Vote for Lhuna. That is all. Enjoy yourselves until I get back, and I will have further commentary when I'm awake. __________________ "My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm. Last edited by satansaloser2005; 05-09-2009 at 12:52 AM. Reason: didn't mean to put in all the quotes. sorry

05-09-2009, 01:00 AM	#6
satansaloser2005 The Sweetest Spoiler Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly Posts: 5,789	Oh, and to add. I honestly believe that Nog has nothing but good intentions for the village, so if you believe me trust him. Well, at least trust that he's innocent. Really going to bed now. Good night all! __________________ "My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.

05-09-2009, 02:18 AM	#10
Shastanis Althreduin Werewolf Psychic Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water. Posts: 2,832	Pearl of my heart, I suppose I haven't stated it in so many words, but it's quite apparent if you read between the lines of what I've been saying. I suppose I could have been remiss in that fact. Put simply, my darling, it's that an innocent-Sally had a pressing reason to claim Seer when Nogrod is a much better candidate, and the same reason for accusing Lhuna so. As for that reason, you would have to ask Sally. I will say that the longer Sally withholds this reason, the more inclined I am to side with the majority... __________________ Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV

05-11-2009, 06:38 AM	#13
wilwarin538 Fluttering Enchantment Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Canada Posts: 2,508	Alright, I'm seeing lots of analysis on the mysterious 5, good good, I'm gonna go back and look at the known baddie posts abit more throughly. Then I shall return... __________________ Comme une étoile amarante Comme un papillon de nuit C'est la lumière qui m'attire La flamme qui m'éblouit Fenris Muffin

05-08-2009, 10:21 PM	#3
Shastanis Althreduin Werewolf Psychic Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water. Posts: 2,832	Well. I just thought of something, in any case. I'll throw out on the table that a Sally-Wraith might try to lynch a Lhuna-Ranger during the day, but that's the only explanation I can find for an evil-Sally doing what she did. I'll be around to vote tomorrow, but I'm going to sit down and shut up because all that's come of me being active today is I've been A) chastised for not being active during the first few days and B) suspected for being active today and bringing an alternative idea to the table. __________________ Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV

05-08-2009, 11:30 PM	#16
Nerwen Wisest of the Noldor Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: ˙˙˙ssɐןƃ ƃuıʞooן ǝɥʇ ɥƃnoɹɥʇ Posts: 6,694	Greetings, all. Oh, and welcome to the "known innocent" club, Wilwa. Sorry for suspecting you. Well, toDay has been... interesting. I have only skimmed the thread so far (will re-read more thoroughly when I have a moment) but here are my thoughts so far: Sally is surely a wraith. 1. If she were an innocent trying to draw fire from Nogrod she would not have named Lhuna as a baddie. 2. If her scenario– that she was the Seer and Nogrod an innocent impersonating the Seer– were correct, Nogrod would have confessed by now. 3. Everyone– apart from Nogrod– is either defending her or expressing confusion. Is it likely that not one of the wolves would take advantage of the most perfect chance to lynch an innocent in WW history? Shasta is probably her fellow He seems desperate to save her... and knowing he's pretty smart, I don't see how he can honestly believe his own argument. (It relies, after all, on ordo-Sally "somehow" knowing for certain that Lhuna is evil.) Presumably, the wraith-team thought Sally was likely to be dreamed last Night, and she decided to go down fighting. Here's the puzzle, though: why did she not accuse Nogrod* of being a wraith?* It seems to me that that's the only way her plan could have worked. Did she think he would believe her a well-intentioned ordo, and go along with her in the hope of surviving another Night? But then, why say she dreamt Lhuna? (As I said, an ordo would not do this.) And what is Lhuna? Now, the talk has been that maybe she's the wraith sacrifice, and they're hoping she'll get lynched and thus buy Sally some credibility. That would rely on the wraiths killing Nogrod toNight... and on Nogrod going along with Sally toDay. (And also requires the third step of Sally being able to convince us ToMorrow that she really was just an ordo trying to save the Seer.) Not a plan I'd have cared to try myself. Or is the whole scheme simply to get an innocent Lhuna lynched, instead of guilty Sally? But again, how could it work once Sally has declared Nogrod innocent? brain hurting EDIT: X'd with Shasta. EDIT2:clarification. __________________ "Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. Last edited by Nerwen; 05-09-2009 at 02:14 AM.

05-08-2009, 11:57 PM	#17
Shastanis Althreduin Werewolf Psychic Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water. Posts: 2,832	I lied. I have a response to Nerwen. Why would I be desperate to save Sally if she and I were both wraiths, Nerwen? Given that she'll eventually be lynched, that would put a glaring spotlight on me. And can I say again, I'm not "desperate to save Sally". I simply think there could be an alternate explanation to her actions. __________________ Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV