WW LXI: Grimm Tales

[the phantom]

Sleepy. Bed.

I'm setting my alarm so I'm up for the final hour. See ya.

[Kath]

So we potentially have two known innocents. Eomer and Lari.

Which leaves:
Nerwen
McCaber
Gaurcrist
Inzil
phantom

One is the Hunter (good guy), one is potentially Little Red Cap (bad guy if turned, otherwise good), the Big Bad Wolf (bad guy), the Old Witch (bad guy) and the Robber Bridegroom (bad guy but tallies as good).

Hmm, we have 8 people in this village at the moment. Only three known baddies (I'm discounting Red Cap). We have two reveals. Makes it 6-3. If the Hunter revealed it would be 5-3 but obviously that negates their power a bit. I don't know. It just feels like we ought to be able to push this on numbers but my maths isn't strong enough to work it out. I think what I mean is that if the Hunter revealed then (ignoring me) there are 4 people to vote between, with a chance of 3/4 that we'd get a bad guy (either one of the two wolves or the robber bridegroom).

Is this making any sense?

By the way I'm sorry I didn't appear before. I've been trying to think this through for ages and just couldn't make it all come together in my head. Also I will be leaving in half an hour and won't be back before deadline.

[Kath]

I think my earlier numbers there are completely wrong.

Good guys (by tally) = 6.

Bad guys = 2 (wolves).

Known innocent is 2 (Eomer and Lari) - 6 (unknown).

So if the Hunter revealed it becomes 3 - 5 (unknown).

I'm discounting myself so it becomes 3 (known innocent) - 4 (unknown).

Thus a 3/4 chance of lynching a bad guy and a 1/2 chance of lynching a wolf.

Ah ok I think I just had it back to front before. This seems to make more sense.

[Kath]

Now as to what I think of those five:

Nerwen: I was actually under the impression that she had been confirmed innocent at some point. This worries me slightly if only because my brain is clearly not working. Either she has just come across as very innocent because she is or her fellow wolves have done a very good job of staying away from her.

Gaurcrist: I really don't know what to make of this one. There is little to be gained from his posts because they're few, far between and when they are there there isn't a whole lot of substance. Could potentially be the Cobbler. A newbie but if his role said 'sow confusion and gain attention' that's what he's done.

phantom: Yeah, I'm not even going to try to guess! We should lynch him to be on the safe side.

McCaber: Eomer's 'case' against him was pretty weak but he is one that has been under my radar since the beginning. In a 'I'm aware he's playing but couldn't tell you what he's said' kind of way. Given our known wolves have so far been Fea and Agan, if he was a wolf this wouldn't be surprising. Those two are such loudmouths it would be hard to compete.

Inzil: I have a bad feeling about this one. I didn't like his early reasoning for suspicions. He has seemed to become very savvy about the game quite quickly since the first couple of Days. Have we seen any clues in the narration that Red Cap has been turned because if they have I think it could well be Inzil.

So I think I'd be tempted to leave Nerwen and phantom alone and vote for one of the other three. I only see Gaurcrist as Cobbler rather than wolf and Inzil I suppose I have more of a 'case' for.

I'm going in ten minutes so I'll hold off on voting til then in case anyone else is around.

[Kath]

Well, got to go.

++INZIL

[the phantom]

The voting to this point-
Eomer for tp (1)
Kath for Inzil (1)

Anyone else around?

And has anyone besides Gaurcrist missed a vote before? If so you are in danger of Modfire, and that would be a silly way to lose this thing.

[Lariren Shadow]

I'm around, I just have nothing much to say. Besides the phantom and Nerwen most of those who are left have been quiet, making it difficult to find really anything.

I've gone though posts and come up with very little about people in general. Even with knowing that Eomer is Hansel there is not much to go on.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by the phantom

And has anyone besides Gaurcrist missed a vote before? If so you are in danger of Modfire, and that would be a silly way to lose this thing.

I think modfire is only if you miss two consecutive Days.

Anyway, phantom, just so you know, I am most likely going to vote for you or Gaurcrist as being the two most suspicious people. (Surprising, no?)

If you'd like to try a bit harder at convincing me you're innocent, be my guest.

Then there's the other three– among whom at least one villain must be hiding... and I barely have a clue about any of them.

McCaber – I don't find Eomer's case on him to be exactly overwhelming... but he's giving me bad vibes.
Inziladun. – Has managed to slip through the whole game without anyone taking much notice of him. Tends to just follow others' suspicions. Cautious newbie feeling his way... or something more?
Kath. – *shrugs* She's hardly played.

EDIT:X'd with Lari.