WWLXII: Dead Men Do Tell Tales

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

One thing I noticed about Boro's death. The kills so far have pretty much followed a pattern, haven't they? Greenie, Eomer, Inziladun - involved posters (usually), independent voters, and completely ignored since they're dead. Rikae was an obvious deviation from the plan, but Boro is a completely different type of kill. I don't know what it could mean, though.

I think you're up to something quite important here Mac. Whether you just spotted it or whether you know it because you have been discussing those kills with your mates is another matter. But the pattern has changed to be sure.

The problem of course is that both Mac and Lommy could be seen to pick that kind of style: take first down those independent minded and involved players who might be able to make the right decisions but who are not the "highest profile" -ones, and then, when it's safe enough and the game is "old" enough, start killing those loudmouths influencing the village against your wishes... Then you could say you were good sports giving the addicted players a chance to play but finish them off before they got too dangerous.

But it means one of them probably is a mutineer (or then Mith is?) as that kind of tactics suits certain people better and not so well others...

So which one of you speaks the truth? I can see why Mac the innocent would do what he did - and I can see why Mac the mutineer would have done that. And the same goes with Lommy: her actions are understandable both ways as well.

Although looking at how it all played out I'd be a bit more confident with Lommy speaking the truth here - and there we should check those who lynched her at the last minutes thus saving Mac. But I must admit - and as a ghost I can do it freely - that I can see the counterwise scenario being possible: the wolves & cobblers tried to lynch Mac but the decent innocents came to rescue him in the end.

The only problem with the latter interpretation is that innocents not knowing about each other - or anyone - rarely manage to make that kind of illustrious "saves" at the last moments but the mutineers have all the tools for it (eg. knowledge) - not the least in a game where nothing is revealed with the death of someone where they can quiite boldly execute those saving operations...

I need to check that voting...

[Isabellkya]

Nerwen. That was not the case, and you know it. -eyerolling-

I am not a Cobbler, thank you very much.
Like -enter expletive- seriously, there is too much elitist stuff going on here.


Nerwen is a mutineer.
Mac... is Mac

I've no time to catch up on missed reading right now.

[Nogrod]

YesterDay's voting then...

Izzy ++ Mac
Nerwen ++ Mac 2
Lommy ++ Mac 3
Mith ++ Gwath
Eönwë ++ Mac 4
Boro ++ Mac 5
"Mac’s "reveal"
Shasta ++ Lommy
Izzy -- Mac 4
Izzy ++ Lommy 2
Mac ++ Lommy 3
Nerwen -- Mac 3
Nerwen ++ Lommy 4

Taking out Lommy and Mac from the stir it leaves us with:

Izzy and Nerwen voting for Mac and then retracting it to Lommy - they were first to vote for Mac and the last to change.

Eönwë and Boro (known to be not a mutineer) voted for Mac.

Shasta voted for Lommy.

Mith went voting for Gwath - early it was though...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Izzy, do you or do you not believe that Greenie (where is she anyway?) was the Seer?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Izzy, do you or do you not believe that Greenie (where is she anyway?) was the Seer?

By her own words, she doesn't.

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

The more I see. I don't believe the claim of Greenie, and subsequent "known-innocence" of Nerwen. She sure isn't acting like an innocent.

And this, in response to Rikae questioning her about the previous quote:

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

Just because someone is innocent, doesn't mean they don't have schemes of their own. xD

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Shasta

Greenie (where is she anyway?)

She's at her mom's summer cabin and has very bad access to the net - and probably doesn't care too much any more.

But talking of which... unless we have Greenie's spy-reveal contested we just need to stick with Nerwen being not a mutineer. But I'd bet she could be a co-conspie... (well, it seems I'd bet that for everyone of you...)

Even if you call me a co-conspie, I think I need to say this: if there is a real spy still alive somewhere with even one living innocent's name, you should really consider coming forwards. We can't trust Nerwen for ever if Greenie was an impostor and soon even one known innocent might make the difference (in case we were going to lynch her/him). But your call to be sure.

The sad possibility is that Greenie was a co-conspie and got it right naming a mutineer-Nerwen as the innocent (a blind shot but amazingly well made!) and the real spy has been killed or lynched without us knownig anything. Although I think that ghosted seer would have said a word or two about the matter already, so I'm somewhat confident that is not the case.

Also Gwath is not a mutineer as he was so heavily suspected by Rikae - the proven hunter - and the mutineers wouldn't have tried to get her killed during the Night just because of that.

Also I strongly suspect thet one of the pair Lommy - Mac is a mutineer but which one? I'm leaning towards Mac at this point but can't really be too sure. Lommy could fool us.

I suspect Mith a lot right now. A lot. Like I did in the beginning.

Izzy's and Nerwen's turn-arounds might even speak good for them; afraid of losing the ranger they turned on their heels and retracted. I mean, if they (either of them) were mutineers with Mac why should they have voted for him in the first place - and so early as they had an opportunity to come back later in the Day? Hard to say...

Shasta's vote for Lommy directly after Mac's "revealment" is also understandable.

But with all the three I must say there is something that bothers me. It looks like they hadn't read the discussion and how things evolved... or then they used that possible interpretation as something to hide their more uglier motives?

I mean Mac's "revelation" was just downright horrible. When he made it he was having 5 votes with only Gwath having one vote besides him (and clearly Gwath is a no lynch candidate right here). So a last desperate option that did pay off to the amazement of Mac himself even? And as I said already yesterDay, he managed not to point the most obvious reason why people should not lynch him as a ranger which any ranger would have voiced in that situation...

But I do have problems with Lommy as well... It was just a bit too neat she would only now "reveal" she was the "true ranger". A bit too convenient a timing! Although there is this from yesterDay eg. long before Lommy "revealed":

Originally Posted by Lommy

If he's the ranger then it's my mistake and you are all welcome to neg-rep me. But after the discussion after his reveal it should be obvious to others than me too that he's not.

Which does look like something the real ranger might write...

[Nogrod]

Good night and good luck you silent pirates...

[Gwathagor]

Huh. Obviously, Mac's "reveal" yesterDay was a last ditch effort to save himself from the lynch, and I think on that basis that we can dismiss the possibility that he is the ranger. In that regard he is clearly telling the truth. THe tricky part, in my mind, is that both an innocent and a mutineer would have equal reason to try anything to stay alive - so which is Mac? Lommy's posthumous ranger reveal doesn't help me that much either, since she could also go either way.

I guess Mac could also be a cobbler just trying to distract us at this point, but my big question is - and I suppose this also applies to the issue of whether he's evil or not - why would an evil player, particularly a cobbler, who had convinced the village that he was the ranger proceed to immediately admit that he was not? That kind of relinquishing of power gained reminds of George Washington and Cinncinnatus, and looks almost innocent. A wolf could conceivably do something like that, but a cobbler certainly wouldn't. There would be nothing to gain, as far as I can see.

So we can rule out that Mac is a cobbler, just as we can rule out that he is a ranger (IMO). It's going to take some further reading for me to decide whether he's innocent or a mutineer though. I'll try to come back after dinner.

[Boromir88]

Problem is, unless there's a convincing case against someone else, I'm not sure if the innocents can take the chance of leaving him alive. But maybe that's the plan....~Inziladun

Exactly, it'd be a huge mistake to not lynch Mac. Let's assume worst case 3 wolves, and Mac is a cobbler, he's lynched and it's over. If he's a wolf there's still some game left. And of course that is worst case...who knows what situation we are in? Mac is a baddie (about to put my own nail in his coffin in a bit ) and it would be a major blunder if he's not lynched.

But first...

I suspect Mith a lot right now. A lot. Like I did in the beginning.~Nogrod

Care to say why? I mean I spent a good half a post saying she's definitely not a mutineer, and there is a slight chance of maybe a co-conspirator. That's your response. You suspect her "A lot." I do suppose you have a good reason? I'd imagine you could give a bit more than "A lot."

Are you serious? That I had a "very bad" feeling about Kath was one of the two reasons? *shakes head*~Mac

It was everything you said about Kath. You went along with the suspicion by casting the 4th (and final) vote for her, but just said you had a feeling it was going to be a bad choice. You can't even call what you did a flip-flop, it was the a massive contradiction right within your vote post..."I don't like this...hmm ok ++Kath" Then moments later, "oh wait...--Kath, ++Izzy"

So, now Mac says he's not really the Ranger, but he's an ordo, who faked being a ranger because he knew Lommy was a mutineer. It may look crazy, why didn't he just stick with the Ranger defense, no one said otherwise?

But just realize the ingenuity of his defense...I seriously do give him props for creating one like this. He obviously has to answer if he really is the Ranger, why he would still be alive, so even if he managed to get another day because of the Ranger claim, he painted himself into dead meat the next day once he didn't show up dead. Well, there goes trying to keep up the Ranger act.

Now maybe he can come in and say..."Ahh they are setting me up!" But this would be full of holes too, as Inziladun accurately pointed out the previous day the Ranger can't defend xemself. Hmm, risk going after someone else, and having a blocked kill, just so you can "set up" the ranger for the next day, or simply kill a Ranger who can't protect xemself at night? You take out the Ranger at night, because then you leave the village with no more gifteds and any band of mutineers can drum up some quick case to lynch an innocent, bingo-bango, and they're done. So, that defense is out the window for a wolf-Mac.

He really took the only escape that was possible, and that he is an ordo, who said he was the Ranger, only because he was entirely sure of Lommy's mutineering...and if the real Ranger revealed oh well. It looked pretty "out there" but really it's the only choice he has left, as to why he's still alive after supposedly being the Ranger. It's clever, but there are so many holes in this thing.

-The wolves would somehow have to figure out that Mac really wasn't the Ranger. How they would do that after Mac says "don't kill me I'm the Ranger" can someone tell me?

-Now I said I can't be too critical of Mac, because as an ordo, I've considered doing the same thing...that is faking a claim as a gifted so a real gifted can stay alive longer. The problem is, at most as an ordo I will hint and try to look gifted, even if I'm about to be lynched as an ordo, I would never claim to be a gifted. And Mac suggesting that as ordo he actually did this, and having the "Oh well if the real Ranger reveals, who cares?" reaction...ya right.

The big problem with this defense, is say Mac's actually is an ordo, and he says "I'm the Ranger" to avoid a lynch, and turn the tables on your attacker who you know for some reason is a mutineer. To explain the gynormous hole in this logic, I will have to set up a scenario. I really do think Lommy is the Ranger, but I'm just saying "what if" to blow apart Mac's logic.

Alright, so Mac is actually an ordo, and he 100% believes Lommy is a mutineer, whether she is or not, no one knows, but Mac is sure of it. Let's say that I'm the actual Ranger then.

Once Mac says "I'm the Ranger" to save his skin, and "vote Lommy, because now I know she's a wolf." You do realize that in this scenario, if I'm the real Ranger (or anyone else for that matter), you'd be the one who would wind up getting lynched, not Lommy. Because once I decide to step out and say...uh wait a second Mac, no you're not, the village isn't going to listen to you and lynch Lommy, they're going to lynch you! You're entire logic that you were an ordo, claiming to be a ranger, just so you could lynch a mutineer Lommy is full of gaping holes. And you are a wise enough player to know if you really are an ordo that logic you laid out this morning, would not work in the least bit.

So, then interesting enough as Mac has pointed out there was a shift in the village targets. Now at first I believed it may have been because by me not-believing in Mac's Ranger claim, the wolves fell in and thought I was the actual Ranger.

However, I realize now (and I hate to turn on the pessimism switch here) it's probably more likely Mac has definitely one, and maybe 2 partners left, and they are hoping there is a cobbler or two alive. By killing me, they get rid of a sure vote for Mac, because there was no way I was going to buy any of his balogna if he appeared alive the next day. So they killed a sure vote for him, and he's pretty much accepted his fate, but if there is a cobbler left, and he's got a couple mutineers he is hoping that will be enough to not be lynched and make it game, set, match, or pretty much game, set, match.

[Inziladun]

Eh. Go ahead and string Mac up, mates. You know you'll feel better.
Unfortunately, I fear that won't be enough as things now stand, as you'll still likely be dealing with at least one mutineer. The ranks of the good guys are getting a bit thin. But you never know: I still have hope it'll work out.
Mith blew off my questioning her about the Gwath vote, but she did vote for Mac. Only because she figured it was a done deal, and everyone would go after him anyway? I wouldn't think she could afford the appearance of another throwaway vote, so I could see her voting him even if she was a fellow mutineer.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Once Mac says "I'm the Ranger" to save his skin, and "vote Lommy, because now I know she's a wolf." You do realize that in this scenario, if I'm the real Ranger (or anyone else for that matter), you'd be the one who would wind up getting lynched, not Lommy. Because once I decide to step out and say...uh wait a second Mac, no you're not, the village isn't going to listen to you and lynch Lommy, they're going to lynch you! You're entire logic that you were an ordo, claiming to be a ranger, just so you could lynch a mutineer Lommy is full of gaping holes. And you are a wise enough player to know if you really are an ordo that logic you laid out this morning, would not work in the least bit.

On the whole, this post made sense but - could you run this part by me again? If what you're saying is true, then it seems like Mac's false ranger claim (it's clearly false, regardless of his alignment) would be equally risky whether he's a wolf or an ordo and so the weakness of that ploy wouldn't really have any bearing on the issue of determining his guilt or innocence. Maybe the facade was full of holes, but I don't see how that can tell us anything about his alignment. Either way, he was desparate and about to be lynched anyway.

Am I totally missing your point?

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Exactly, it'd be a huge mistake to not lynch Mac. Let's assume worst case 3 wolves, and Mac is a cobbler, he's lynched and it's over.

Maybe this is totally academic, but I think you're wrong here. I'm pretty sure that a cobbler is the only thing that Mac is surely not. He's definitely either mutineer or ordo. Not that it really makes much of a difference, since Mac is all but lynched already with 3 votes.