WWLXII: Dead Men Do Tell Tales

[Boromir88]

Problem is, unless there's a convincing case against someone else, I'm not sure if the innocents can take the chance of leaving him alive. But maybe that's the plan....~Inziladun

Exactly, it'd be a huge mistake to not lynch Mac. Let's assume worst case 3 wolves, and Mac is a cobbler, he's lynched and it's over. If he's a wolf there's still some game left. And of course that is worst case...who knows what situation we are in? Mac is a baddie (about to put my own nail in his coffin in a bit ) and it would be a major blunder if he's not lynched.

But first...

I suspect Mith a lot right now. A lot. Like I did in the beginning.~Nogrod

Care to say why? I mean I spent a good half a post saying she's definitely not a mutineer, and there is a slight chance of maybe a co-conspirator. That's your response. You suspect her "A lot." I do suppose you have a good reason? I'd imagine you could give a bit more than "A lot."

Are you serious? That I had a "very bad" feeling about Kath was one of the two reasons? *shakes head*~Mac

It was everything you said about Kath. You went along with the suspicion by casting the 4th (and final) vote for her, but just said you had a feeling it was going to be a bad choice. You can't even call what you did a flip-flop, it was the a massive contradiction right within your vote post..."I don't like this...hmm ok ++Kath" Then moments later, "oh wait...--Kath, ++Izzy"

So, now Mac says he's not really the Ranger, but he's an ordo, who faked being a ranger because he knew Lommy was a mutineer. It may look crazy, why didn't he just stick with the Ranger defense, no one said otherwise?

But just realize the ingenuity of his defense...I seriously do give him props for creating one like this. He obviously has to answer if he really is the Ranger, why he would still be alive, so even if he managed to get another day because of the Ranger claim, he painted himself into dead meat the next day once he didn't show up dead. Well, there goes trying to keep up the Ranger act.

Now maybe he can come in and say..."Ahh they are setting me up!" But this would be full of holes too, as Inziladun accurately pointed out the previous day the Ranger can't defend xemself. Hmm, risk going after someone else, and having a blocked kill, just so you can "set up" the ranger for the next day, or simply kill a Ranger who can't protect xemself at night? You take out the Ranger at night, because then you leave the village with no more gifteds and any band of mutineers can drum up some quick case to lynch an innocent, bingo-bango, and they're done. So, that defense is out the window for a wolf-Mac.

He really took the only escape that was possible, and that he is an ordo, who said he was the Ranger, only because he was entirely sure of Lommy's mutineering...and if the real Ranger revealed oh well. It looked pretty "out there" but really it's the only choice he has left, as to why he's still alive after supposedly being the Ranger. It's clever, but there are so many holes in this thing.

-The wolves would somehow have to figure out that Mac really wasn't the Ranger. How they would do that after Mac says "don't kill me I'm the Ranger" can someone tell me?

-Now I said I can't be too critical of Mac, because as an ordo, I've considered doing the same thing...that is faking a claim as a gifted so a real gifted can stay alive longer. The problem is, at most as an ordo I will hint and try to look gifted, even if I'm about to be lynched as an ordo, I would never claim to be a gifted. And Mac suggesting that as ordo he actually did this, and having the "Oh well if the real Ranger reveals, who cares?" reaction...ya right.

The big problem with this defense, is say Mac's actually is an ordo, and he says "I'm the Ranger" to avoid a lynch, and turn the tables on your attacker who you know for some reason is a mutineer. To explain the gynormous hole in this logic, I will have to set up a scenario. I really do think Lommy is the Ranger, but I'm just saying "what if" to blow apart Mac's logic.

Alright, so Mac is actually an ordo, and he 100% believes Lommy is a mutineer, whether she is or not, no one knows, but Mac is sure of it. Let's say that I'm the actual Ranger then.

Once Mac says "I'm the Ranger" to save his skin, and "vote Lommy, because now I know she's a wolf." You do realize that in this scenario, if I'm the real Ranger (or anyone else for that matter), you'd be the one who would wind up getting lynched, not Lommy. Because once I decide to step out and say...uh wait a second Mac, no you're not, the village isn't going to listen to you and lynch Lommy, they're going to lynch you! You're entire logic that you were an ordo, claiming to be a ranger, just so you could lynch a mutineer Lommy is full of gaping holes. And you are a wise enough player to know if you really are an ordo that logic you laid out this morning, would not work in the least bit.

So, then interesting enough as Mac has pointed out there was a shift in the village targets. Now at first I believed it may have been because by me not-believing in Mac's Ranger claim, the wolves fell in and thought I was the actual Ranger.

However, I realize now (and I hate to turn on the pessimism switch here) it's probably more likely Mac has definitely one, and maybe 2 partners left, and they are hoping there is a cobbler or two alive. By killing me, they get rid of a sure vote for Mac, because there was no way I was going to buy any of his balogna if he appeared alive the next day. So they killed a sure vote for him, and he's pretty much accepted his fate, but if there is a cobbler left, and he's got a couple mutineers he is hoping that will be enough to not be lynched and make it game, set, match, or pretty much game, set, match.