TIG: LXV - Our fate lies with...them?

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

The only one? Morm nearly got the chop yesterDay

I know, I know. I was talking about accusations based on his *plan*...I think.

Originally Posted by morm

I can't remember when Mira voted I think it was before Nienna and Nerwen

Actually she voted you after both of them, tying you with Alona.

I copy morm...

Cobbler
Sally? Nerwen?

Wolf
Nienna, Mira, Lommy, Nessa, Sally, autum....

Bear
morm...Lommy...

What's interesting is once again Sally did a bizarre retraction, and is convinced she did something she didn't do. Ties are ties in this game, it is not the first to a certain number of votes, it is a coin flip. I'm thinking she's our cobbler cause of this, but maybe she is a wolf playing that...boldly.

I mean, I must admit I'm a little partial to keeping her around because she's fun.

edit: by "a certain number of votes" I mean the highest number of votes...duh.....

[Mirandir]

So Shasta. Why? I'm going to try to start an analysis before I have to leave for work, but it'll be done by deadline, even if I have to finish it when I get home. Hopefully I can find a connection between the three bear kills. To analyzing!

[mormegil]

It has become too quiet for my taste and I smell something foul in the air. I wish the group I think innocent would talk more. I fear that the wolves got scared because of yesterday and now they are laying low letting the tides go where they may hoping to avoid detection.

Durelin is the lone exception to the current trend, in fact she's said more today than all other days combined, or so it seems.

[Thinlómien]

Morm starts to seem slightly foul to me.

Could someone explain why half of the village suspects Nerwen of cobblering? It confuses me because I get no such vibes.

Now I'm off to first have dinner and then finish the Alonalysis.

[Thinlómien]

Alona about others

Nerwen - Day1: complains about her sdrawkcab gnitirw twice, Day2: greets Nerwen with annoyance (because of sdrawkcab gnitirw), replies to her speculation about Hakon the Bearkill, clarifies a question she didn't understand, Day3: says she's under her radar, says she reminds her of an innocent Nerwen from the previous game, is unsure about her and keeping an eye on her

morm - Day1: relies on his reasoning when voting Hakon, Day2: votes him for hiding behind a vote, is wondering whether to switch the vote or not and decides not to until he returns, Day3: has a wolf-hunch that is fading after rereading

Mac - Day1: jokingly replies to his suspicion, asks if his vote for her is payback from the previous game, Day2: seeks to allay his fears by telling she's been considering retracting, Day3: replies to his points (a few times)

Rikae - Day1: thanks her for defending her, Day2: say she might be framed by the bear and wonder which players would profit from getting rid of her, says she's not ready to vote her just yet, replies to her suspicions, keeps back and forthing with her about stuff (a lot), says Rikae's right when pointing out her weird willigness to retract, questions the joke part of her vote for her, says her vote makes her unhappy, Day3: replies to her teachings and later to her questioning her defense of Sally and Lommy

Nienna - Day1: ♥s her for making a vote tally

Mira - Day2: defends her sense of humour to Form, replies to her bear-speculation about Rikae, praises her contributions, again replies to bear speculation by saying the bear is probably a newbie, says her Rikae-bear speculation was a bit tongue-in-cheek

Autume - Day2: replies to a comment of hers, speculates with her about morm, Day3: wary of her 'cos she agrees with people so much, suspects her "less than a hunch"

Sally - Day2: replies to her queries about Hakon's death, questions her voting similarily to her, talks about Lari's schedules and Serenity with her, Day3: praises Sally's songs, defends her to Rikae by saying they cross-posted, does not suspect her, says baddie Sally is different from this Sally, thinks her long explanations confusing and slightly suspicious, jokes with her about tp

Lommy - Day2: admires her willingness to stay awake late and her sig, Day3: defends her to Rikae by saying they cross-posted but echoes Rikae's suspicion over the grateful-remark, does not suspect her, talks with her about smileys and says she can stop using them if they're annoying, suspects for grateful-comment but nothing else

Form - Day3: can't get a read on him

Durelin - Day3: suspects her for only voting based on the tie, replies to her comments

Nessa - nothing


Others about Alona

Nerwen - Day1: promises her not to sdrawkcab etirw (I just discovered how it's easy to do that and now I know why Nerwen got so hooked, btw ), Day2: doesn't understand Alona's question about arranging deaths, disagrees with her newbie-bear speculation, Day3: suggests making her happy by lynching her and Sally, says morm is more suspicious than her and votes him

Rikae - Day1: asks if anyone has opinions on the newer players including Alona, doesn't suspect her and doesn't want to vote her because she won't be around, Day2: says she hasn't left an impression, summarises her actions and concludes she's a bit suspicious (could be a cobbler or a poor newbie, though), says her vote explanation was weird, replies to her defenses, says she and autume are oddly buddy-buddy and says Alona's constant bringing up angry-bear theory looks schemed, doesn't think she and Autume are BBF's, wonders why she and Sally are both suddenly thinking of switching votes once tp questions it, votes her and clarifies it's not a joke vote, apologises for making her unhappy by voting her, Day3: suspects those who voted to save her, lectures to her about life and werewolf (sorry couldn't resist that phrasing ), says her defense of Sally and Lommy doesn't make sense, suspects her and says she's using newness as a shield, thinsk there's a wolf among Sally/autume/Alona and it's be useful to know which one, replies to Lommy's suspicions by saying that if the above trio is innocent Lommy should be looked at, considers to switch her vote to her, speculates about the light her death would shed, reatracts her vote from Sally to Alona

Mac - Day1: doesn't like her vote, votes her based on the vote and being vague and fueling the Hakon-wagon, explains her the vote for her and is troubled by her reaction to it, retracts from Alona to Zil because the vote has no support, Day2: is doubtful about her, wonders about bandwagons (including Alonawagon), Day3: wonders about people wanting to save her and why she took so long to save herself, is not convinced by her defense, she's his best suspect, votes her because prefers her to the -orms and says he may switch

Nienna - Day1: says Mac vote for her makes sense but Pitch's doesn't, thanks her for ♥ing her, Day2: analyses her vote

Sally - Day1: talks with her about Pitch's retraction, Day2: replies to her question about voting similarily to her by saying it's coincidence, talks about Lari's schedules and Serenity with her, retracts to save her because doesn't find her too suspicious, Day3: highlights xing with her vote and says she felt dumb because of that and that she was just planning to break the tie, Day3: wants to analyse her cos she looks suspicious, explains saving her at length while interrogated by Rikae, explains her last game's behaviour to her, jokes with her about tp and sorta disapproves of her no vote, suspects her and wants to take another look at her, says she's ready to switch her vote to her, retracts from morm to morm and ties morm and Alona

Form - Day1: says he confuses Nessa and Alona and decides to vote the first rather than the latter, Day2: says she has produced little substance and classifies her under "Hasn't Said Enough to Have a Trustworthy Feeling", speculates about he and autume being wolves together without reaching a conclusion, Day3: says her late Day2 behaviour is jumpy and suspicious, wonders if her new calmness is due to packmate-coaching, says she looks like a jumpy newbiewolf who's more interested about saving herself than catching wolves, speculates about the light her death would shed, says he'll probably vote her, votes her

Mira - Day2: thanks for her praising her sense of humour and talks with her about Rikae, replies Alona's "ununderstandable" question and thanks her for praising her, follows Nerwen's example of voting morm instead of Alona because of suspecting him more

Autume - Day2: agrees with her that it's difficult to guess people's roles, doesn't suspect her, questions morm based on her reasoning, says she's buddy-buddy with her because they're both new, says she understands her (possibly because they're both new), Day3: speculates about her and Sally being in cahoots in a confused manner, says it made sense that she saved herself, feels she's innocent

Lommy - Day2: says she has a cute avvie and keeps mixing her up with others, agrees with her about the village being in a tight spot, says Alona is completely under her radar, says she'd vote Inzil to save morm or Alona, retracts to save her and says she should be grateful, Day3: says saved her because she was neutral while Inzil was slightly suspicious and grateful-remark was there because it was about morm earlier, is disturbed by her use of smileys and says it's suspicious, says "the a-ladies" are rather jumpy and that if all of alona/autume/Sally are innocent Rikae should be lynched, lists her under "slightly suspicious" for being jumpy and eager to please

Nessa - Day2: votes her for being double-sided, Day3: gets a wolvish feel from her, would like to vote her but won't 'cos she can't be around to defend herself

Durelin - Day2: notes Alona's placeholder vote, votes her because she's more suspicious than morm or Inzil, Day3: would like to lynch her (alongside with half of the village), says she and autume are "jumpy, defensive, while agreeable, and highlighting new-ness", says attention away from her and Sally is not necessarily bad, explains her vote to her, disapproves of her vote for Norm, names her as a part of the ball of wolvishness, hopes she and Nessa are wolves, wonders if she's innocent because a wolf wouldn't waste vote power, votes her

morm - Day3: says she looks mighty suspicious based on her Day2 voting, doesn't trust her based on the no-vote, says he'll vote her or Sally, votes her, says that if he dies she (and some others) should be looked at


Next up: conclusions
then: reading and commenting all the posts I probably xed with

[Thinlómien]

probable-ish mates
Nerwen - there seems to be some sort of friendliness between the two (arguing about backwards-stuff), Alona keeps flip-flopping about Nerwen, Nerwen votes morm when he and Alona are running for the execution block (although, I'm not sure she'd do that if she was a fellow wolf - I can also see the possibility that Nerwen is a cobbler and that was suggested in the wolves' Nightly chats, or then Nerwen's just innocent)
morm - Alona might have been looking for cover by her fellow on Day1 and then when accused of it starts accusing morm of similar behaviour, morm ignores Alona until she's widely suspected and then he too suspects her
Mira - the two ignore each other quite nicely but Mira votes to tie morm with Alona (again the question of obviousity vs cobblerism vs innocence arises, though)

possible mates
Nienna - hardly any interaction
Sally - Alona flip-flops about Sally a lot, Sally attempts to save Alona twice and they seem very friendly with each other - the problem is that they look even too friendly to be fellow wolves (is Sally a cobbler, was Alona just buddying her up?)
Autume - they're quite nice to each other even though Alona suspects Autume a bit, but they seem somehow too obvious a pair to be fellows
Form - she avoids mentioning him but he suspects her... hmm
Nessa - I don't like Nessa not voting Alona because she can't be around and thus no-voting, but if they were fellows, why not give the vote to Form whom she also suspected?

unlikely mates
Mac - I don't think Mac would be as nasty as to accuse and vote a newbie fellow on Day1
Rikae - too much interaction and too much constant suspicion from Rikae's part
Durelin - picked Alona for lynching even though had two other (and several more others) options


edit: xed with Dureley

[Boromir88]

Reading all this analysis makes my brain hurt...how do you all do it?

[Thinlómien]

It is very enlightening to read Mac's analysis because he seems to have spotted stuff I totally missed and also missed some stuff I noticed and our conclusions were partly the same, partly different.

Off to make a list of sorts...

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by morm

Durelin is the lone exception to the current trend, in fact she's said more today than all other days combined, or so it seems.

No, morm. You just started to notice me because I talked about you.

Originally Posted by sally

Heh. You know I was mostly kidding about that, right?

Well no. I went back and looked, and I really can't see anything that tells me that.

And what does "mostly kidding" mean anyway?

Originally Posted by Mira

So Shasta. Why? I'm going to try to start an analysis before I have to leave for work, but it'll be done by deadline, even if I have to finish it when I get home. Hopefully I can find a connection between the three bear kills. To analyzing!

What about the wolveses that are still out there?

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Durelin

And what does "mostly kidding" mean anyway?

Ask Miracle Max, he know what 'Mostly Dead' means so he certainly should know what 'Mostly Kidding' means.

I agree with Durelin here. I don't see any jest. I see Sally doing what Rikae demonstrated she did yesterday. Keeps trying to explain things and continues to dig a bigger and bigger hole.

[Macalaure]

Commenting on the comments first, then off to analyse a bit.

What I find very awkward about morm's insistence that he has been protected is that he only (flawfully, imo) argues why the ranger would protect him, not why Shasta-ranger would protect him. (note to self: have look at Shasta if time permits.)

Originally Posted by Nerwen

On the other hand, that edginess was there all yesterDay too– it's mainly why I voted him.

I can't remember that I've ever seen morm non-edgy.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I'm not to sure what to make of this comment, because normally people just ignore such vague yet clearly enough phrased suspicions and let them be. Nienna, however, wanted an explanation to be able to defend herself and half of me says that's a sign of guilt, and the other half that it's a sign of innocence... go figure.

Sign of innocence (though I still have to take a closer look at her and make up my mind). Not only the suspected person usually ignores such petty accusations, but the average other person, too. Why risk it that the suspector elaborates on the "creepiness" and actually convinces someone of it.

"One half says it's guilty and one half says it's innocent" is a horribly vague and wolvish statement, Lommy. The people who suspect Nienna already take it as support of their view, while the non-suspicious people aren't rubbed the wrong way.

Originally Posted by Lommy

There's nothing bad in being analytical per se, but as an experienced werewolf player you should probably know that many wolves have been caught because they have explained the Night kills so smartly and effortlessly (straight from their Nightly PMs) or have managed to give the impression they think (a lot) from the wolves' prespective. I'm not saying going inside a baddie's mind and speculating stuff is bad - on the contrary - but sometimes it looks so authentical it gives off bad vibes, often for a reason. And that's why I suspect you.

This bit sounds very, very dodgy.

Originally Posted by morm

There are three I trust right now--Rikae, Mac and Durelin.

*approves*

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Durelin

Well no. I went back and looked, and I really can't see anything that tells me that.

And what does "mostly kidding" mean anyway?

First of all, Morm gets points for the reference.


It doesn't really matter, I just found it funny. I really didn't change the lynch, and of course I know that, but it's funny if you realize that if I hadn't been messing around yesterDay (aka the 'vote change') Morm would have been the other side of the coin and he'd have been dead. It made me giggle, that's all.

[satansaloser2005]

Okay, off to do my Nienna (I mean Nessa....dang it, I keep doing that!) analysis now. Then I need to do Nienna as well so I can remember which of them has done what so I can figure out which I suspect more. (Yes, I know, Morm did one a bit ago if I remember correctly but I'd rather look at her posts myself than just see Morm's summations of her words.)

[Durelin]

Ah. Now I get what you meant, Sally, about the coin toss.

[satansaloser2005]

NESSA DAY ONE


Stealing Mac's plus and minus thing, because....well, it's awesome.

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

Oh wow! I wake up in the morning and we're on PAGE FOUR?

All I can say is that I would've helped, but little girls like me are supposed to be asleep in the early a.m's.

Even worse, in all FOUR (three?) pages, no one has said anything for me to blame them. And to think I was hoping for such a miracle. ToT

But tp's plan seems sound enough to me. The only problem is that it unnervingly reminds me of a similar scenario in TiG III involving Fordim Hedgthistle. Except there, it was used as a basis for Day one votes. (Yeah, I like to read through the older games-helps a doof like me figure things out)

I won't be surprised if someone uses peoples reactions to that plan to decide on their vote. It seems to happen a lot.

edit: crossed with morm

Banter, banter, fluff, reference to an old game, supports lynching an already dying Fea, says that the discussion will probably help people make up their minds about each other. +0

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

Well, I just go to older threads in Mirth. Makes for good reading, and it's fun to guess who is who while you read.

Banter. +0

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

That may be what he had in mind, just to try and make this game that much more interesting. But couldn't the wolves exploit that reasoning by saying they distrust each other?

Makes a good point, and while she didn't say much she brings up....erm, actually an obvious point. One that needed to be brought up, but obvious. But she was trying, so yay for that. +1

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

Maybe, if that is how Boro chose roles. We would have to tally up everyone's answers though, if we were to do that.

I myself would rather have more concrete evidence, based on someone slipping up. It's too easy to be tricked in any strategy, however, if that's all we have to go on...

I say, Day one is the hardest vote of all, merely because there's nothing to go on.

Says the surveys are worth looking at but that it's too much effort and she'd rather use (as I put it) real werewolfing skills to figure out the baddies. And Day Ones suck. (+1 liking points, +0 suspicion points)

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

I sense a little tension here. >_>

Yeah, well.... +0

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

Well, at least now the conversation is boiling down to the problem at hand, rather than other oddities that only serve to up the page count.

I think the most likely strategy, that everyone will most likely fall into anyways, is to blindly vote Day one as they always have, and then look back at who voted who, and who was Night killed for motives.

But the problem lies in this: when all we can do toDay is vote blindly, how will our votes mean anything? There's no point in giving a well-thought reason when there's nothing to go on for us villagers(and gifteds). If we just tell the truth about why we're voting instead of trying to sound smart(guilty here) then it will be easier to distinguish who is who. Only the wolves are sure of who they need to kill: everyone. And that means that they will be glad with whatever lynch they can get on the first day, provided none of them die.

Erm....states the obvious. This post looks so helpful, and yet....nothing. She's saying what we all know is true. -1, because it looks....weird.

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

I would love to be able to form solid opinions of everyone like Rikae, but, as has been noticed multiple times, there has been nothing to go on. The funny thing is, there is more substance in her one post than has been in the last few pages. And I hate lynching people who have nothing against them. That contradicts the idea that you're supposed to use your head in this game.


There may be a list forthcoming(oh no!), but I regret that you must wait for it.

Says that she has trouble getting a hold on people and that Rikae is being more helpful than most. Ties to Rikae, in a way. Doesn't want to lynch someone who....I'm getting the impression of who can't talk a lot, but she could also mean people who haven't been suspected much. Promises a list. Again, this is a good post and I understand where she's coming from, but....could she be buttering up to Rikae by saying she's being helpful, for whatever reason? -1

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

No, I think it's excellent when someone has a sensible reason, only it's easy for one to vote based on banter rather than substance. That's what I'm trying to say. But I'd rather hear an obvious statement out of the speaker's desire to help the village than a genius plot from a wolf and their respective trickery.

edit: crossed since Inzil

Ahhhh, gotcha. Anyway, says it's too easy to hide behind stupid vote reasons. Also states that she'd rather....wait, she said she'd rather hear from an ordo than a wolf. Well of course. Pretty speech, but words whispered, etc. -1

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

The thing about innocents, is that their only concern should be to figure out who the baddies are. The wolves and gifteds are the ones who need to play tricks, and for either self preservation or some other motive.

I know I didn't say it (for the record, Rikae did) but the ordos occasionally need to play tricks too, and often do for the good of the village. Phantom and his insanity, for instance (not in this game necessarily but in others). I agree that we (the ordos) should try to catch the baddies of course, but this seems off to me. (-1 liking points, +0 suspicion points)

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

Oh, wow, so many posts. @_@ Seems I have garnered a vote. I really must remember to congratulate myself. Late deadlines are always difficult for me, since I hit the hay pretty early, and must vote early, if I am to vote at all. ++Rikae If only for my dislike of how you seem to jump down everyone's throats. Night

This seems like a personal vote but I know it's not. Some wolves are very aggressive (no offense meant to Rikae of course) and Nessa could assume that's what Rikae was doing. At the same time, however, she had previously said she liked what Rikae was doing. Ties to Rikae. Weird for her to flip like that. Oh, and I've done the 'oh look I got a vote yay' thing too but this seems weird to me. -1


For those of you at home, the total so far....

Liking points (her posts, not Nessa herself of course): 0
Suspicion points: -3

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Durelin

What's interesting is once again Sally did a bizarre retraction, and is convinced she did something she didn't do. Ties are ties in this game, it is not the first to a certain number of votes, it is a coin flip. I'm thinking she's our cobbler cause of this, but maybe she is a wolf playing that...boldly.

Heh. You know I was mostly kidding about that, right?