Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[Pitchwife]

Good afternoon everybody! Seems I haven't missed that much...
As for Mnemo's suggestion, it had to come up, and why not rather sooner than later? It makes as good a starting point as any. The idea must have occurred to anybody who has given the words of our Mayor some thought (it surely did to me this morning while I was alone, working on the decorated lintel Nogrod commissioned for his mansion). The wolves probably saw it coming as well, but I don't think they'd bring it up themselves; anyway, I find it hard to suspect, much less convict anybody on no more evidence than their position in this debate - there may well be one or more wolves arguing for either side, in order to confuse us.
The Seer, of course, will do as the Seer sees fit, but I think it would be wise for them to reveal if they are either

• able to name a wolf (catching the first wolf early is crucial, as it will halve the Night-kills); or
• in danger of being lynched by mischance. (A cousin of mine told me this happened in his village not so long ago, when their inexperienced visionary got himself lynched after only one dream; predictably, the wolves triumphed. We want to avoid that!)

Some more thoughts to follow soon, but I've got to wet my throat first. That Chetwood Stout of Inzil's sounds promising...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Boro

When did Nogrod sign up for this game?

At the last possible moment actually. I hadn't had time to check the 'Downs until it was basically too late but as Eönwë was in need of one more player I got in...

So...

I'm quite fascinated with this discussion about making a drastic move on Day1 - both in the sense that we should actually explore it, and in a sense Boro talked of it being much more better stuff to read on Day1 than the nonsensical banter.

As I see it, we have a possibility of generating an unlimited protection to our seer - as long as our ranger is alive.

So the first question should be, how long do we think our ranger can stay hidden and alive, and does is match the risk the seer takes by revealing? (Which of course is up to the seer as many have commented already)

But the second question - no lesser than the first - would be, are we willing to take the risk that the wolves will probably counter-reveal (or reveal first leaving our seer to do the countering)?

Now if we had two competing claims we'd have a 50-50 chance of getting it right and then protect the seer until the ranger is blown off. If we missed it by lynching the seer first we'd get a wolf the next Day for sure. With no cobbler around that should be self-evident.

So do we wish to risk exchanging the seer to one wolf for getting this protection-rotation going until the ranger is killed? In a sense that might be worth trying as seer's seldom catch multiple wolves (unless Boro is the seer when he will deliver us all four after the first four Nights on a silver platter ).

But there could be another way to do it as well. If / when we had two competing claims for the seer we could protect them both during the Nights; ranger protecting the one and the village the other - and changing turns every Night. Then on Day3 or 4, depending on the general situation, we might require them to produce lists of their dreams and with the experience with them for a few Days already we might even be able to make a more educated guess between them than just 50-50. Also we would then have a list of four at best from the real seer to help us after s/he's gone.

So let's actually think about it. As Boro said, we should be ready to try things out - at least on the level of speculation I might add.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

(unless Boro is the seer when he will deliver us all four after the first four Nights on a silver platter ).

Haha, sorry that won't be happening this time around. The lazy bums will have to do the work themselves, as I will have to do for myself.

So let's actually think about it. As Boro said, we should be ready to try things out - at least on the level of speculation I might add.

I'm getting to that soonish, but I will probably have to vote a few hours before the DL.

Boromir88- hmph, well, somehow, his flip-floppish ending makes me uneasy (sort of defending Mnemo and saying this "She's part of the family, and generally a sweet person, but you're not sure about the true nature of the activities she is up to, so I'm just keeping her at a safe distance for now", which is basically the typical "either way the wind goes, I may or may not suspect her"), but that's not enough to vote him, of course. But let's see what happens.~Legate

Not at all, merely pointing out I don't see why the plan would make Mnemo look suspicious, at first look. There are innocent intentions, and it's been well thought out. Plus the way she's defended it afterwards looks more innocent...it hasn't been a

"Hey lets get the seer to reveal and have us and the Ranger switch off proteting."

A loud "NO!" from the crowd.

Mnemo: "Oh, ok, guess I was wrong...so who's a wolf?"

She's thought it out and defended it quite well, and I don't agree with sally at all about it being cheap. Hey, we use the toys the mod-god gives us...If the wolves think it's cheap, they need to quit their whining and figure out how they want to beat it.

My only reservation is, as Kitanna said, it shouldn't absolve her. It's not like wolves can't come up with an apparently helpful, ingenius idea, only then to tell her packmates to mess it up.

Just thought I'd bring it up for discussion - what do you think?~Pitch

Hmm interesting, but I would take it more as a fortunate circumstance if it just so happens we guard a wolf. I'm going to make my decision based on either someone I would not want to see killed, or someone who I think would force the wolves hand.

Like, say we could hope to protect one of the no-trail kills, to try and force the wolves to actually kill someone who will leave a trail back to them. How it stands now though, I think I'll go with option one today, because there be still too many no-trailers for the wolves to pick off.

Edit: crossed with everyone since Pitch

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, so let me go through it. Whom do we have there:

A Little Green- for some reason, she made me wonder with her mid-day chat, as I thought her intention was to have just some chat, but then she asks Nilp "why did you vote yourself?" which looked like a serious question, although completely vain by nature (knowing Nilp). But nothing much more to go on with.
alonariel- the village blacksmith-not around and won't be according to the admin thread, okay, that puts her out of the stuff for toDay.
Boromir88- hmph, well, somehow, his flip-floppish ending makes me uneasy (sort of defending Mnemo and saying this "She's part of the family, and generally a sweet person, but you're not sure about the true nature of the activities she is up to, so I'm just keeping her at a safe distance for now", which is basically the typical "either way the wind goes, I may or may not suspect her"), but that's not enough to vote him, of course. But let's see what happens.
Brinniel- nothing particular to go on with.
Hakon- not appeared yet, if I am not mistaken
Inziladun-
Kitanna- sudden appearance and disappearance, nothing more.
McCaber- not been around yet?
Mnemosyne- enough's been discussed about the Seer-talk; personally, I don't think I will vote her toDay (for neither lynch nor protection), maybe further Days will clear it up better.
Nerwen- keeps to the point and makes sense. I am thinking about her as a possible Night-Guard vote today.
Nessa Telrunya- nothing particular to go with
Nienna- same as above
Nilpaurion Felagund- Nilp is just Nilp, obviously nothing to do with him on Day 1.
Nogrod- the retired bourgeois hasn't shown himself yet
Pitchwife- more or less lurking on the edge, but nothing for or against this far.
satansaloser2005- apart from a very few random comments, nothing special
Shastanis Althreduin- nothing
Thinlómien- generally positive impact. I may also think of voting her for protection toDay, also maybe it would be more interesting than Nerwen in order to check, because if she perchance were a Wolf (somehow it seems more likely than in Nerwen's case), protecting her might also hinder the Wolves, or reveal something, or whatnot.
wilwarin538- like I said above, I am a bit wondering about her persistent persuasion of the subject of Seer's revelation, but then again, like I said, she ended it herself with good measure. I might vote her, for one, but that's no strong case - of course - Day 1, she is probably the "best" I have now (and that doesn't mean a lot).

EDIT: x-ed since Mnemo and I realised I was so thinking about Inzil that I haven't filled in the box. I will do it in my further post as I also read the crossposts, and may add something on their posters too.