Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Boro

When did Nogrod sign up for this game?

At the last possible moment actually. I hadn't had time to check the 'Downs until it was basically too late but as Eönwë was in need of one more player I got in...

So...

I'm quite fascinated with this discussion about making a drastic move on Day1 - both in the sense that we should actually explore it, and in a sense Boro talked of it being much more better stuff to read on Day1 than the nonsensical banter.

As I see it, we have a possibility of generating an unlimited protection to our seer - as long as our ranger is alive.

So the first question should be, how long do we think our ranger can stay hidden and alive, and does is match the risk the seer takes by revealing? (Which of course is up to the seer as many have commented already)

But the second question - no lesser than the first - would be, are we willing to take the risk that the wolves will probably counter-reveal (or reveal first leaving our seer to do the countering)?

Now if we had two competing claims we'd have a 50-50 chance of getting it right and then protect the seer until the ranger is blown off. If we missed it by lynching the seer first we'd get a wolf the next Day for sure. With no cobbler around that should be self-evident.

So do we wish to risk exchanging the seer to one wolf for getting this protection-rotation going until the ranger is killed? In a sense that might be worth trying as seer's seldom catch multiple wolves (unless Boro is the seer when he will deliver us all four after the first four Nights on a silver platter ).

But there could be another way to do it as well. If / when we had two competing claims for the seer we could protect them both during the Nights; ranger protecting the one and the village the other - and changing turns every Night. Then on Day3 or 4, depending on the general situation, we might require them to produce lists of their dreams and with the experience with them for a few Days already we might even be able to make a more educated guess between them than just 50-50. Also we would then have a list of four at best from the real seer to help us after s/he's gone.

So let's actually think about it. As Boro said, we should be ready to try things out - at least on the level of speculation I might add.