Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[Nienna]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

One thing I can say - I'm very confident now that Nilp and McCaber, our two surviving Inzil-voters on Day 2, are innocent. Whether or not there was any wolf in yesterDay's Inzilwagon, I don't think any of the two, as a wolf, would have voted a packmate on Day 2 without need and with a happy witch-hunt against Legate going on to hide in.

I'm wary about disregarding some players because they voted for a wolf when they could have voted in a wagon. One of them might very well be a wolf. In my experience wolves tend to suspect one another and vote for each other so that they will seem less suspicious. It was clear that Zil wasn't going to be lynched on that day and that an innocent would be lynched so they didn't really need to worry about their vote. They could then vote a pack-mate who was also looking suspicious so that if that mate was lynched it would make them look good.

Basically I don't want to let a wolf slip by because they voted for a packmate.

Edit: x-ed with Wilwa. *nods*

[Nienna]

Nilp:

• Lynch votes:

o Nilp
• Zil (1/4)
• Zil (1/5)

• Guard votes:

o No Day One
• Wilwa
• Boro (1/2)

Mnemo:

• Lynch vote:

o Wilwa (1/3)

• Guard vote:

o Boro (1/4)

Brinn:

• Lynch votes:

o McCaber
• Legate (7/12)
• Zil (5/5)

• Guard votes:

o Legate (1/6)
• Shasta
• Nerwen (3/3)

Nerwen:

• Lynch votes:

o Kit (1/7)
• Legate (1/12)
• Zil (2/5)

• Guard votes:

o Legate (2/6)
• Zil
• Boro (2/2)

Shasta:

• Lynch votes:

o Lommy
• No Day Two
• No Day Three

• Guard votes:

o Legate (3/6)
• No Day Two
• No Day Three

Kit:

• Lynch vote:

o Brinn

• Guard vote:

o Hakon

Boro:

• Lynch votes:

o Kit (2/7)
• Legate (2/12)
• No Day Three

• Guard votes:

o Nienna (1/2)
• Nerwen
• No Day Three

Zil:

• Lynch votes:

o Kit (3/7)
• Legate (11/12)
• Brinn

• Guard votes:

o Boro (2/4)
• Nog (6/7)
• Pitchwife (1/3)

Greenie:

• Lynch votes:

o Nog
• Legate (4/12)
• Sally

• Guard votes:

o Nienna (2/2)
• Nog (1/7)
• Pitchwife (3/3)

McCaber:

• Lynch votes:

o Wilwa (2/3)
• Zil (3/4)
• No Day Three

• Guard votes:

o No Day One
• Nog (3/7)
• No Day Three

Hakon:

• Lynch votes:

o Legate
• Legate (3/12)
• Nienna

• Guard votes:

o Boro (3/4)
• Nog (7/7)
• Pitchwife (2/3)

Pitchwife:

• Lynch votes:

o Kit (4/7)
• Legate (8/12)
• Boro

• Guard votes:

o Boro (4/4)
• Nog (2/7)
• Shasta (2/3)

Legate:

• Lynch votes:

o Wilwa (3/3)
o Zil (4/4)

• Guard votes:

o Lommy
o Nilp (2/2)

Nienna:

• Lynch votes:

o Zil
• Legate (5/12)
• Zil (3/5)

• Guard votes:

o Mnemo (2/2)
• Nerwen (2/2)
• Shasta (1/3)

Nog:

• Lynch votes:

o Greenie
• Legate (10/12)
• Abstain

• Guard votes:

o Legate (4/6)
• Boro
• Nerwen (1/3)

Wilwa:

• Lynch votes:

o Kit (5/7)
• Legate (6/12)
• Zil (4/5)

• Guard votes:

o Legate (6/6)
• Nog (4/7)
• Nerwen (2/3)

Lommy:

• Lynch votes:

o Kit (6/7)
o Zil (2/4)

• Guard votes:

o Legate (5/6)
o Nilp (1/2)

Sally:

• Lynch votes:

o Kit (7/7)
• Legate (12/12)
• No Day Three

• Guard votes:

o Mnemo (1/2)
• Nienna
• Shasta (3/3)

Nessa:

• Lynch votes:

o No Day One
• Legate (9/12)
• No Day Three

• Guard votes:

o No Day One
• Nog (5/7)
• No Day Three

Known Innocents are Underlined. Known Wolves Italicized

[Nienna]

List:

Nilp: His voting looks pretty clean. I just wish he would post a little more of his thoughts and suspicions on people

Brinn: Her lynch voting is making me a little wary at the moment. Day one she random votes. Day Two she is hiding in the middle of a bandwagon for an innocent (but so, I guess, are a lot of other people). Day three she gives the last vote for a wolf. When she posted it seemed pretty sure that he was a goner so it would be a safe wolf on wolf vote. I’ll be keeping my eye on her

Nerwen: She’s been at the beginning of a few bandwagons and her lynch voting record seems suspicious and yet I don’t find her behavior suspicious. This probably means we should pay closer attention to her. She has also been pretty high on the list of people who are trusted… so why is she still alive?

Shasta: I really hope he shows up.

Boro: Lynch voted early in a few bandwagons but nothing highly suspicious

Greenie: Her voting seems to be clean. I have no real reason to suspect her at the moment.

McCaber: Hasn’t lynch voted in the bigger bandwagons. Voted for a wolf Day Two. He hasn’t spoken much… I’d like to hear more from him.

Hakon: Terrible lynch voting if I must say so myself. I think he might just be an inexperienced player making mistakes. I don’t particularly think he is a wolf…. but a lot of the stuff he says doesn’t make sense to me and seems suspicious. So I have no idea.

Pitchwife: Lynch voted midst bandwagon for innocents and then didn’t vote for a wolf. Even with this record his posting seems like a mislead innocent rather than a wolf.

Nog: His vote abstaining yesterDay was sort of weird. It doesn’t scream wolf at me though.

Wilwa: She has been a major part of every bandwagon. She has said a lot of intelligent and useful things though so I’m not particularly leaning toward wolf.

Sally: Was the last vote in lynching two innocents (one who was gifted). Her behavior just doesn’t seem like wolf-Sally behavior to me though. She’s on the confusion list.

Nessa: Who?

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Here we go again.

Originally Posted by Nienna

Nilp: His voting looks pretty clean. I just wish he would post a little more of his thoughts and suspicions on people

Do my other posts not count? Do I have to wake up at 1 in the bloody morning just to please you with more posts?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Do my other posts not count? Do I have to wake up at 1 in the bloody morning just to please you with more posts?

Yeah, that's another thing, Nienna: our poor Village Fool here has been quite active, and made a case against Inzilawolf yesterDay, so I'm not sure what you mean up there.

All the same, Nilp, there's something I want to know, or rather two somethings: why were you a.) so convinced of Boro's inncence and b.) do you have any other reason for thinking Hakon was Kit's dream apart from the fact that she voted to guard him?

EDIT:X'd with Hakon.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

All the same, Nilp, there's something I want to know, or rather two somethings: why were you a.) so convinced of Boro's inncence[ . . . ]

I was not convinced of his complete innocence, but, as I said in that big thing *waves vaguely* he's the only one to make a proper case against Legate. He didn't just say, 'Oh, but Legate, we have to lynch you to explain this headscratcher away', unlike what most of you did.

[ . . . ] and b.) do you have any other reason for thinking Hakon was Kit's dream apart from the fact that she voted to guard him?

Just the Guard vote. It probably has to mean something. True, it might be that I'm looking at the wrong thing, and that Brinn is actually a Werewolf that Kitanna had dreamt of, but I don't think so.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Just the Guard vote. It probably has to mean something. True, it might be that I'm looking at the wrong thing, and that Brinn is actually a Werewolf that Kitanna had dreamt of, but I don't think so.

Okay. I thought you might have something more definite. I don't want to lynch him if he's innocent– and he seems determined to stick his head in the noose.

I mean, his latest contribution may have just set a record for "Number of Distortions, Spurious Arguments and Generally Suspicious Comments in A Single Post".

Originally Posted by Hakon

I feel like there is a giant target on my back today, even though none of you are coming after me.

Well, don't tempt fate, then.

Originally Posted by Hakon

My number one suspect right now is Nerwen. She was the second to vote for Inziladun and the first to vote for Kit and Legate. Almost like she knew Legate was innocent and knew we would go after him. She just chose to get her vote out of the way early. Same thing with Kit. With Inziladun it seems like she was ready to turn on her fellow wolf just to escape suspicion herself. She probably realized that it would be a bandwagon for Inziladun, so she just got her vote out of the way.

You're sure about that, are you, Hakon? The way you were sure Inzil was innocent?

Let me address your points:

1. A first vote early in the Day is not inherently either suspicious or innocent. It's just a vote. Yes, wolves may do this to stay under the radar– but innocents also often have to vote early for RL reasons. Do you actually read my posts, Hakon? I believe this is the fourth time I've explained that the DL in this game is highly inconvenient for me.

Do you know what is suspicious, Hakon? Casting the third vote on an innocent- i.e. starting a wagon. Especially if you then point at the person who cast the original vote and claim, "Wasn't me! She did it!"

Look, if my vote for Legate was "almost like I knew he was innocent", what was yours? (You also cast a first vote on him on Day One– a prima facie case for lupinity, according to you.)

2. At the time I voted Inzil yesterDay, it was, in fact, not at all clear that he was going to be lynched. I voted him because I thought he might well be a wolf. As simple as that.

3. I did not need to "escape suspicion".

Originally Posted by Hakon

I am also suspicious of Sally and Wilwa. Wilwa just because she was involved in all three bandwagons

4. Well, I must admit, that's very unlike you, Hakon– nobody can accuse you of being involved in the bandwagon against the known wolf.

5. As for Sally– I am somewhat suspicious of her myself, as it happens. However, when your attack on her is added to the rest of your accusations, the whole post looks a lot like you're thrashing around trying to find an alternative victim.

Look, if you're innocent, Hakon, the best thing you can do now is explain yourself, not go after other people with weak reasons.

EDIT:spelling.
EDIT2:adding a comment.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nienna

Nerwen: She’s been at the beginning of a few bandwagons and her lynch voting record seems suspicious and yet I don’t find her behavior suspicious.

Nienna, you're not exactly being fair. I've had to vote early each Day due to timezone issues; the first two Days I cast the first vote in what was to become a bandwagon- but I don't think I can really be blamed for that. My Day 3 vote, being the second for Inzil, could indeed be said to have started a bandwagon. However, as you may recall, he was a wolf.

It's true I didn't properly explain why I voted him. That's because it was late and I was very tired. I'll do so now if you want.

Originally Posted by Nienna

Greenie: Her voting seems to be clean. I have no real reason to suspect her at the moment.

Votes an unknown on Day One, casts fourth vote on a known innocent on Day Two, votes an unknown (albeit a quite suspicious unknown) rather than a wolf on Day Three and calls voting said wolf "too easy". Now, none of this is particularly suspicious in context; however, I wouldn't actually single her out as "clean", myself.

Originally Posted by Nienna

Hakon: Terrible lynch voting if I must say so myself. I think he might just be an inexperienced player making mistakes. I don’t particularly think he is a wolf…. but a lot of the stuff he says doesn’t make sense to me and seems suspicious. So I have no idea.

Not sure about him. His desperate attempt to save Inzilawolf was so very blatant that normally we might take it as a sign of innocence. However, he could be an inexperienced wolf making mistakes, too.

Originally Posted by Nienna

Pitchwife: Lynch voted midst bandwagon for innocents and then didn’t vote for a wolf. Even with this record his posting seems like a mislead innocent rather than a wolf.

On the whole I'd agree. What worries me about Pitchwife, though, is not that he argued against lynching Inzilawolf per se, but that he was the one to insist that Lommy's death was an attempt to frame Zil. Now, if my theory that the kill was a double-bluff is right, you'd expect another in the pack to point out that Zil was "clearly" being set up, hence innocent.

I should say, though, that I could be wrong about that theory- they may have just eliminated Lommy for being a dangerously good player, whose death wouldn't implicate any of them in a serious way.

Originally Posted by Nienna

Wilwa: She has been a major part of every bandwagon. She has said a lot of intelligent and useful things though so I’m not particularly leaning toward wolf.

I think Inzil's turning out to be a wolf makes it less likely Wilwa is one.

Originally Posted by Nienna

Sally: Was the last vote in lynching two innocents (one who was gifted). Her behavior just doesn’t seem like wolf-Sally behavior to me though. She’s on the confusion list.

*shrugs* I wouldn't say she seems that much like innocent-Sally, either.

EDIT:x'd since Wilwa at #465.
EDIT2:fixed quotes.

[McCaber]

About the one kill: our mod said yesterDay that the wolves would only get one night kill on top of alona. Since we lynched Inzil, presumably that means that the wolves only got one kill total, which they then used on alona instead of who they really wanted.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by McCaber

About the one kill: our mod said yesterDay that the wolves would only get one night kill on top of alona. Since we lynched Inzil, presumably that means that the wolves only got one kill total, which they then used on alona instead of who they really wanted.

Huh, ok....so let's say Shasta or Nessa don't vote again toDay and one of them gets modfired, will the wolves lose there kill again toNight??? Eonwe? I mean that's awesome and all for us, but it doesn't seem fair for them. I had thought they only lose a kill from modfires when there was still 4 of them....totally confused.

[Hakon]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Huh, ok....so let's say Shasta or Nessa don't vote again toDay and one of them gets modfired, will the wolves lose there kill again toNight??? Eonwe? I mean that's awesome and all for us, but it doesn't seem fair for them. I had thought they only lose a kill from modfires when there was still 4 of them....totally confused.

It is not just unfair to them. It is boring. Knowing who will die takes away the excitement from the game.

I feel like there is a giant target on my back today, even though none of you are coming after me. I regret defending Inziladun yesterday. I really thought he was innocent.

My number one suspect right now is Nerwen. She was the second to vote for Inziladun and the first to vote for Kit and Legate. Almost like she knew Legate was innocent and knew we would go after him. She just chose to get her vote out of the way early. Same thing with Kit. With Inziladun it seems like she was ready to turn on her fellow wolf just to escape suspicion herself. She probably realized that it would be a bandwagon for Inziladun, so she just got her vote out of the way.

I am also suspicious of Sally and Wilwa. Wilwa just because she was involved in all three bandwagons and Sally in the first two but she did not vote yesterday. If she had time to make that quick post where she made her guard vote, I would think that she had time to add a quick lynch vote as well. Almost like she wanted to escape condemning a fellow wolf. I think she voted Shasta because she was worried that her possible fellow wolf Nerwen might be guarded. At the time when Sally voted, Nerwen and Pitch both had three votes and Shasta had two votes. By making it a three way tie Sally had made it a little bit harder for Nerwen to get guarded.

One thing I want to add, is that I do not get why three people voted for Shasta yesterday. He has not been around at all and it was unlikely that he would get killed the next night. It seems like a throwaway vote, the same really as voting for yourself.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Huh, ok....so let's say Shasta or Nessa don't vote again toDay and one of them gets modfired, will the wolves lose there kill again toNight??? Eonwe? I mean that's awesome and all for us, but it doesn't seem fair for them. I had thought they only lose a kill from modfires when there was still 4 of them....totally confused.

No. The wolves will not lose a kill toNight if Shasta is modfired. Nessa still has another Day.

[wilwarin538]

Sally, I voted Kit on Day 1.

Thanks for the much needed clarification Mr. Mod.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Sally, I voted Kit on Day 1.

Thanks for the much needed clarification Mr. Mod.

Aha! I thought so, but for some reason I didn't see it on my list so....yeah.



Gah, the internet is being such a PAIN!!!! I'm going to fix that above post and get back to work, but if I don't reappear please to not be killing me, thanks. I'll do my best.

[satansaloser2005]

Going to analyze Hakon and Cabbie now, interwebs willing.

Either way, I'm pretty sure my guard vote will remain the same:

++Guard Nienna


I think she's innocent and she's someone that I think will be valuable later on, blah blah. Pretty standard reasons, really.


Hope to be back soon.