Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[Nienna]

Ok kids really? I've already walked to an interview, had the interview, spent much more time and money in a bookstore, walked back, and made this analysis of Brinn. Where is everyone??

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Yikes, I just realised I probably have to vote in less than an hour. Deadline is in the middle of my day which is inconvenient, so I may or may not be back before then.

About this whole seer reveal thing. While on one hand it sounds like a great way to keep the seer both alive and dreaming, it's true that so many things could go wrong. Not only could there be counter-reveals, but if we are unlucky enough to have our ranger killed overNight, then we'll definitely be in trouble. I agree it's certainly something we could do further up the road, in a few Days or at least after the seer has dreamt of a wolf. But Day One seems awfully early for a seer reveal, and really just too risky.

Okay, I don't have time to say much more and I do have to vote shortly. Unfortunately, it'll have to be somewhat random; my bad since I could've done better than random if I had woken up earlier to allow more time.

Thinks seer-reveal could be awesome but it is just too early for that. Will probably random vote.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Must really go now.

Legate so far seems the most sensible and reasonable and innocentish, so I'll pick him to guard:

++Legate

As for a lynch vote...much more difficult. No one stands out as suspicious to me just now so it'll have to be complete random toDay. A lot of players still haven't posted, and hopefully they will show up, but for now I will vote for someone who is not making a contribution.

[lynch vote]++McCaber[/lynch vote]

Hopefully my participation will be better toMorrow. At least deadline will be a bit better in my new time zone..

Guards Legate because she thinks he is innocentish unlike most others who guarded him because they vaguely suspected him.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Yeesh, twice now I have left Day One early only to return to find the seer dead. Surely we learned after last game...but no? Looking back at yesterDay, that Kitanna bandwagon seems off. I actually can't really see why she looked so suspicious. Those who participated in the bandwagon deserve a closer look. I wouldn't be surprised if at least one or maybe two wolves were involved.

So either Legate is a wolf or he's been framed, as others have already stated. Lynching him, there's the risk that we could be falling into a wolf trap...but then again, I think it could be even riskier to let him live if he is a wolf. I'd hate to have a wolf in our grasp, then just let him slip through. That's sort of how we lost last game. I can't really see why the wolves wouldn't want to take advantage of having two kills. Wouldn't they want to maximize the number of deaths while they can?

Btw, did Nessa or alona show up at all yesterDay? I see they didn't vote, but I can't recall whether they even posted or not. Also, any reason why you didn't vote to guard someone, McCaber and Nilp?

I would take a look at the Kit bandwagon now, but it's late and I need to go to bed shortly. If no one has done it yet, perhaps I'll do it tomorrow if I have time.

EDIT: X-ed with Shasta and Nilp (who already seems to be doing a Kit analysis)

Reasonable about the Legate situation, thinks the Kit wagon needs to be looked at.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Looking at the Kitanna bandwagon:

Nerwen is the first to vote for her "jittery reaction to Mnemo's plan." She admits it's weak reasoning, though I think it's probably better reasoning than many others give for Day One votes.

Boro is the second voting her because her reactions were suspicious and the reasons she voted for me. I actually didn't find Kit's vote for me all too suspicious. The reasoning was weak, yes, but it seems like a typical Day One vote and I also was under the impression that maybe she was short on time. Anyway, Boro's vote doesn't stand out to me. Reasoned enough and a bit early to be called a bandwagon vote.

Inziladun is the third voter, voting Kit for her reasons behind voting me. This here looks to be a bandwagon vote and a bit suspicious to me.

Vote number four comes from Pitchwife five minutes before deadline. Doesn't state a reason in his vote post, but in his post before he talks about her behaviour being suspicious, but is still uncertain whether that is wolfish behaviour from her. If he was clueless about whether her behaviour pointed to wolvery, then why vote her? I suppose he could've preferred to see her lynched over the other options, maybe. Slightly suspicious.

wilwa is the fifth voter. Says she does it to save herself, which is understandable. Doesn't exactly point to either wolvery or innocence.

Lommy gives the sixth vote saying she doesn't see why wilwa is so suspicious. Could it be a wolf trying to save her mate? Possibly, though it's not like her vote for Kit came from nowhere since she said she'd been getting bad vibes from her all day.

The last Kit vote comes from Sally. Doesn't give a reason, though earlier she agreed with Boro that Kit "seemed off." Probably the weakest reasoning of the Kit voters. She spent the last hour and plus providing a tally but contributed little otherwise. Now why is that? Seems rather suspicious to me.

So out of the Kitanna voters, in order from most to least suspicious:

Sally
Inziladun
Pitchwife
Lommy
wilwa
Nerwen
Boromir

This analysis of the Kit voters looks good. The one wolf we know was near the top of the suspicious list.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Sorry, I missed that post...which is easy to do when you have to catch up on two and half pages from the previous Day. So you listed a bunch of scenarios for why she voted to guard Hakon if she's a wolf. But if you were so suspicious of her almost two hours before deadline, why wait until exactly deadline to vote her? I understand wanting to wait a little before immediately voting the first suspicious person, but waiting until it's almost past deadline is certainly pushing it.

And why so many tally posts? Yes, they look helpful, but you posted an awful lot of them and really we don't need a new tally every time someone votes. I think your time could've been better spent looking at other players.

Thinks Sally is posting too many tallies. That seems to have been said a lot…

Originally Posted by Brinniel

You asked who I'm voting for, Legate? Well, you'll hate to hear it, but I'll be voting you. You've made your arguments plenty, and while these arguments are well written, they don't convince me. Yeah there is the possibly of being framed, but it still seems more sensible for the wolves to make as many kills possible while they still can. Anyway, I think you're death will reveal a lot. If we lynch you and confirm you're a wolf, then we can toMorrow analyse posts to figure out who your fellows are. Not to mention, it'll prevent any double kills from ever happening. And if you so happen to be innocent as you claim, we can look back at toDay and see the reactions and attitudes of different players to help us figure out which of them are the wolves.

And I do have to go now and won't be back, so:

[lynch vote]++Legate[/lynch vote]

Note: There's only an hour left, so let's not spend the rest of the Day discussing Legate. The wolves want us distracted, so I suggest we don't let ourselves get distracted and focus the attention elsewhere at other players who could be wolves too.

I'll guard:

++Shasta

He's made few posts so far, but the ones he made do make me think him innocentish. I find Shasta is a good person to trust, so I'd like to know for sure that I can.

Votes Legate like most people. Guards Shasta because his few posts were rather innocent and he is a good person in general to trust. Notes that the village should start looking at other people so that we won’t be distracted which is what the wolves would want.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Hmm...I think the best thing to do now is to look back at everyone yesterDay. We obviously can't make much judgment on the votes themselves, but picking up some comments and behaviours players had towards Legate's guilt could help give us some clues to which of them are the wolves. That's something I'd like to do, but I don't have time now, so it must wait.

The one-kill tactic isn't the smartest plan since it does give us more opportunities to lynch, but it still leaves us with uncertainty. We can't know for sure whether the wolves chose one kill or if Nogrod is actually guilty. We obviously don't want to repeat our mistake from yesterDay, but at the same time, we can't just disregard him. We need to lynch based on suspicious behaviour and not just from the results of the Night Guard. That's how it should be.

Btw, I'm not sure how active I'll be toDay since I am in the process of finding furniture for my bedroom.

Thinks that the wolves might not have been smart not killing two people when they had the chance but now we are unsure of the people who have been guarded. She recommends using normal means of finding suspicion and to not rely on the NG.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

One thing I realised about this one-kill thing. Not only do the wolves prevent known innocents, but they are forcing us to change our strategy. If the wolves had done two kills, we would probably continue the strategy of guarding those who are suspicious to figure out their role. That means if those we suspect and choose to guard turn out innocent, the wolves lose potential lynch targets. Once those suspicious innocents are cleared, the wolves become much easier targets, especially if they are acting suspicious. But now since we can't know innocents, that strategy cannot work. So perhaps because a wolf (or more) was considered suspicious they decided to do the one-kill so that suspicious innocents who could be lynched would not be guarded and then cleared.

I should look back and see which players were attracting some suspicion in the previous Days. Right now, only wilwa and Inzil come to mind.

Good point about the wolves’ strategy. This could be insider information but it just feels like a solid theory.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Just some highlights from yesterDay...


First post of the Day. She seems a bit careful, not wanting to go completely one way or another. Perhaps waiting to see the others' reactions before taking a side.


Is the first to seem slightly certain of Legate's guilt.


Interesting catch, though it doesn't necessarily point to McCaber's guilt. His comment could've just given the wolves the idea.


I believe was the first to come up with the theory that one or the other was a wolf. Many others continued to state that theory as the Day went on.


Is the first to vote and vote for Inzil. Not sure what to think of that.


Pointing out Legate's comment about being guarded.


Seems certain of his guilt and very eager to lynch him. But is that eagerness because she really did think we were going to nab a wolf or was she a wolf eager to lynch an innocent?


The way she says this almost sounds like she's expecting him to end up innocent.


Legate pointed this out as a slip, though I'm not sure it is. It's just worded a bit strange, I think.


Interesting comment. But has he done that yet? I can't remember.


Comments on the situation, but seems to restrain from giving his own opinion on the matter.


It is strange she shares a moment of doubt not long after the theory that either she or Legate is a wolf is discussed.





Interesting. These votes look particularly bad from Inzil and Hakon. Very bandwagonish.

Good summary post.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Where did this come from? Inzil, you seem to have this habit of latching onto other people's opinions.

Wolf-on-wolf? It doesn’t seem likely.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Thoughts at this time...

Suspicious:
Inzil
wilwa
Sally

Keeping a close eye on:
McCaber
Nienna

Under the radar (and should be better looked at toMorrow):
Greenie
Boromir
Nessa
Pitchwife

Not sure:
Nilp
Hakon
Nogrod

Leaning Innocent:
Shasta
Nerwen

I left out alona since it looks like she will be modfired.

A lot of this is really based on yesterDay and before. I haven't had a chance yet to really look closely at toDay's posts and unfortunately, I won't have time to do so since I must go soon.

EDIT: Three posts in a row? Where did everyone go?

Wolf as her top suspect and innocents in her innocent category… she seems to be doing pretty well.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

How strange it is that two people just voted to guard both players I find innocent. A coincidence?

Well, I'm still voting for one of them anyway. Since Nerwen has been more useful to this village compared to Shasta who's hardly posted, I'll choose to keep her around toNight.

++Nerwen

Now who do lynch? I'm quite suspicious about Inzil too, but I'm a bit wary of this massive bandwagon against him. Has anyone else received votes? Oh yeah, me.

wilwa looks pretty bad too, but I wonder if she would act in such an obvious manner as a wolf. Hmm..

Sally still looks suspicious, but I don't think enough to vote her.

Doesn’t really want to join a bandwagon but is still suspicious of Zil.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Bandwagon or no, his behaviour is still the most suspicious to me.

[lynch vote++Inziladun[/lynch vote]

And hopefully this bandwagon won't result in the same disaster as yesterDay.

Votes Zil. She was the last vote for him. At this time it looked pretty sure that he would be lynched but there was still enough people and time left for her to be able to start a different bandwagon.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I don't really care for Pitchwife's defense in his first post toDay. It's the first thing he does at the very beginning of the Day before anyone even starts to accuse him of anything. Preparing a defense before the accusations are made can be a very wolfish thing to do.

I'm wondering how likely it is Hakon's a wolf. His strong defense for Inzil is bold and looks quite bad, but would he be so obvious were he a wolf? Though Hakon is still pretty new to WW and I don't think he's been a wolf before, so I suppose there's a chance it could've been a newbie wolf error.

She doesn’t really think that Hakon is a wolf. There is a chance but it doesn’t seem likely. Doesn’t like Pitchwife’s opening defense post.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Suspects...

Hakon is either a misguided innocent or a newbie wolf. As to which, it's still a toss-up for me. For that reason I'm not all too eager to be joining this bandwagon against him.

McCaber has been gathering some attention of late, and as I recall from Day 2, he did look a bit furry. When it came to sharing opinions on the whole Legate matter, he seemed very careful and retrained in his words like he didn't want to give too strong of an opinion one way or another.

Sally's behaviour creeped me out a bit on Day 1 and Day 2. But that creepiness has sort of faded, and lately I have been feeling a bit better about her.

I find Pitchwife's posts from the end of the Day a bit suspicious, but I'm still not sure about him.

I still think wilwa's behaviour on Day 2 was quite suspicious and I find it strange that a lot of attention and suspicion on her has been dropped recently. That alone makes me nervous as I remember that is how the wolves won last game.

Boromir keeps slipping under my radar and I can't figure out why that is.

Her suspects… pretty straight forward. Makes a good point about Wilwa suspicion and the lack of Boro.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Voting for the one who makes me most uneasy of the those I mentioned in my last post:

[lynch vote]++wilwa[/lynch vote]

We can guard someone a second time, just not consecutively right? I'm considering voting Nogrod since he seems innocent to me and quite helpful to the village.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Why are you so sure of wilwa's innocence, Sally?

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Guarding:

++Nogrod

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Why do you want to save her then?

The thing with Sally at the end of the day seems a little weird… but maybe it was just because I understood that Sally thought Hakon more suspicious than Wilwa not necessarily that she was sure of Wilwa’s innocence.

On the whole I’m leaning toward Brinn’s innocence. Her posts seem helpful and straight forward. She is having suspicions of people who do look suspicious (and in one case was a wolf). She could easily have jumped on the Hakon-wagon if she was a wolf but decided to vote for someone else. I would love to hear her suspicions of Wilwa because I can’t wrap my head around her.

Edit: x-ed with Nog. YAY!!