Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Interestingly I'm also worried about Wilwa, Nilp and Nienna as they are soo active I've probably never seen them being before. I mean it's good and great as such but...

Haha, this coming from the guy who's always going on about how everyone must be active and post a lot..

Originally Posted by Nogrod

On another issue: have I kind of missed it or have we heard anything about those people who decided to guard Shasta (Nienna, Pitch, Sally)? I still find that choice the odd one and against our best interests.

I think that was talked about yesterDay, at least Sally explained and I think Pitch did too, I can't remember if Nienna did. I'm too lazy to look it up for you but yes, that was discussed.

A sidenote: I find it rather amusing that Nog just said the two of us won't be flood-posting toDay and yet it seems to be the two of us having a dialogue by ourselves...

[McCaber]

Dang. I'm going to have a lot less time than I originally thought.

So it seems I'm the number one suspect toDay, with two votes already and no one else really being mentioned. Let's see what I can do to answer some of these accusations, at least.

It seems some of the biggest points against me are voting for Inzil twice, both when he was in no danger of being lynched. Day 1 was a semi-random vote on my end, because I didn't think Kit looked bad and I wanted to bring up an alternate possibility. Day 2 was because I thought Legate was completely innocent by then, and I didn't want to join a bandwagon. Inzil was still my top suspect, so I voted him. I said we could lynch Legate then, but I didn't want to.

I brought up the Plan (tm) because people were still talking about it and I still think it was a bad idea. I stayed away from the Hakonwagon because I thought he was misguided, not a wolf.

That's just about all my thought processes on my actions. Now I have to think about which people look wolfy/guardable, and vote within maybe half an hour.

[McCaber]

All right. I'm out of time. My fate is your own.

++ Pitchwife

++ Nilpaurion Felagund

The first is because I have no idea whether he's being framed, is in fact a wolf, or is caught in some crazy coincidence. The second is because he's still making sense, and I'd like to see him stick around.

[Boromir88]

Golly-gee willakers I haven't even finished reading what happened yesterday.

[A Little Green]

Now I'll have to vote as I'm going to sleep quite soon. I was kind of hoping to have more material to draw conclusions from, as it is the wolves will be the ones who profit since no one talks. They'll love this Day. I hope there is a sudden huge flood of posting still to come, though that doesn't help me a whole lot in deciding who to vote.

Or, actually, there isn't much to decide. I'll go after my top (and only) suspect since I haven't had the time to analyse old posts and there haven't been that many new ones - which means that my opinions of people haven't had that big a chance of changing. Therefore:

++ Sally

++Nienna

The latter because she's the one I feel most comfortable with.


EDIT: x-ed with Boro - yay, I actually x-ed with someone! So cool!

[Brinniel]

Greenie- Nienna can't be guarded toNight since she was guarded last Night.

[A Little Green]

Whooops. Thanks for telling me! Luckily each player is allowed two retractable guard-votes so I can do this:

-- Nienna
++ Wilwa

If she's innocent (like she seems now) she'll be someone the wolves want to be rid of. And if she happened to be a wolf I wouldn't lament her fellows having to do one Night without her.

[Nogrod]

Well this is going to be a tough one: I need to wake up in about seven hours and it's two to the deadline...

At the moment I'm wawering between McCaber and Pitchwife. A lot has been said about McC lately but I'm going to go back a little to see if my suspicions on Pitchie have any merit looking backwards on his actions.

And sure Sally is someone I have suspected a lot earlier - but like Brinn, I have kind of become more easy with her as the Days have passed - Or have I just forgotten about her?

And just as a sidenote: I'm pretty sure not all Nilp, Nienna, Wilwa and Brinn are innocent. The problem is how to differentiate a really good villager from a rotten apple. But looking at the time and our numbers I'm not going to risk voting any one of them toDay.

Heh, that leaves only Greenie and Boro unmentioned. Well for a reason: I don't have the slightest concrete point either way...

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Also with Boro I'm a bit uneasy with this kind of throw-aways:
First of all I don't think I never said I was innocent before this post (I think I said it toDay though) not to talk of me requiring you to think of me as one. Well I am innocent (second call), but I can't require you to believe me just by my word or by any dubious standard relating on how the wolves choose to play their game ot not. The problem with this is that you make it look like I have claimed innocense because of that Night's actions which I haven't and thence trying to claim something which basically a wolf would try to claim. But if you were a wolf wishing to see me lynched that would actually be the exact subtle way of trying it out whether others would pick on it.

It was a mix-up on my part, I thought it was you and wilwa who both pointed out that the the wolves were using the guard vote to frame innocents, thus since you were guarded during Night 3 you were an assumed innocent. But it was wilwa and Hakon.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Boromir keeps slipping under my radar and I can't figure out why that is.

Because usually I'm very loud and in people's faces?

[Boromir88]

Hmm something else Nogrod said that I thought I commented on, but for some reason it didn't show up and now I can't find it.

Basically it's when Nog said he feels guilty for not trying enough so far, and then basically getting a free pass, which funny enough I feel like I'm in the same boat. It's really eerie to not have anyone challenging me to do better, when I really have done nothing at all. Well, except wilwa who just did today and makes her look a better to me, but at this point, I've done no analysis on anyone, and absolutely nothing, so I'm more or less just playing randomly and un-Borolike. The fact that no one is directly calling me out on it is scary...well again excluding wilwa who just did today.

[Brinniel]

I believe Nienna asked me why I found wilwa suspicious, so I've pulled up some quotes to better explain why I'm uneasy about her:

Legate: he made sense for the most part yesterDay, though there were inconsistencies here and there. The fact that there was only one kill last Night does point towards him, I doubt the wolves would have given up a second kill purely to set him up, doesn't seem at all worth it for them to do that. Pretty sure I'm gonna vote him.

First mention of her suspicion of Legate, almost four hours after the Day begins. Considering she felt so strongly about his guilt, I wonder why she never even bothered to mention him in her earlier posts.

So I still think that there is no way the wolves would have given up that extra kill. Yes it messes with our heads, which I'm sure they enjoy, but it doesn't really benefit them in a solid way. So they want Legate dead? Well they could have just killed him toNight, they wouldn't of had to set him up for us to kill him. They could have gotten two innocents last Night, plus (statistically) we probably would have lynched another innocent toDay. It's so early in the game, and they are but 4 people hidden among 18 that there is no way they were soooo scared of getting lynched that they resorted to setting him up. I'm not at all convinced of that. They're ability to kill 2 at Night will only last for so long, since we will eventually get a wolf, and they know this. They wouldn't have given that up purely just to confuse us...we usually confuse ourselves fairly easily on our own nyway.

Now, let's say I'm totally wrong and Legate is innocent. We'll still be further ahead. If they had done their 2 kills last Night and we instead lynched someone else toDay (who could have aswell been innocent), then we would have been down 3 innocents. But this way, we'll only be down 2. Or, he'll be a wolf, which is my guess. Really we are either gaining, or losing only a bit less then we could have lost if there had been a second night kill. Not really a win-win situtation, but it's definitely not a lose-lose.

I don't really like this post. She spends a whole paragraph talking about how the wolves just wouldn't possibly skip a kill, but in the next paragraph she's like, oh but in case they did... And she says that lynching an innocent isn't too damaging to the village and even if there were two kills were made, we'd still probably end up lynching an innocent. Any lynching of an innocent is harmful to the village and who knows what would've happened if two kills were made instead, clearing Legate. Inziladun was the runner up with votes that Day, so maybe we could've lynched a wolf on Day 2 after all.

Exactly. So, I'm pretty sure Legate's gonna be our first wolf. Which will be lovely because we won't have had to ever experience the double Night kill.

Confident of his guilt and eager to lynch.

I also seriously doubt that, if they did give up the extra kill, that they would ever do it a second time, that would just put them way to far behind.

Interesting that she says this considering the events of the next Night.

x'posted with Legate, so I got a little excited, we lost our seer so early of course I'm excited at the prospect of getting a wolf toDay, and not having to worry about double Night kills is a relief as well

Again, very eager. Any sort of excitement to lynch makes me uneasy, especially when that victim turns out innocent.

Yes Legate is making some wonderful points that do make quite a bit of sense....but still. I'm very weary of leaving him around because even though what he says makes sense, it just doesn't seem as probable to me.

Starting to show a bit of doubt.

Every time I re-read everything Legate says he makes more and more sense to me. I see the merit that his ideas have. I don't think they're as likely as some other possibilities, but I do really respect the work he's put into them. I do however still think that lynching him would get us further along, if he's guilty (which I think is more probable) then that's awesome, if he happens to be innocent then it provides us with a better idea of what sort of wolves we're dealing with, and we can try to figure out who would have been more likely to agree/come up with such a risky bluff. I'm seeing that the latter is more possible then I originally thought it was, but I don't think it's as likely, so I'm willing to take the risk. Besides, if we did lynch someone else instead we would just be back to wondering what to do with Legate tomorrow (not to mention we could accidently kill another gifted), and we wouldn't really have accomplished to much regarding that subject. So it's our best bet really, despite the risk.

She starts to backtrack her confidence near the end of the Day admitting there's a possibility he's innocent, but shares reasons why we should lynch him anyway. There are some points here I do agree with, but it's the fact that she seemed soo confident not much earlier that makes me wary.

now, since I really don't see me changing my mind on that, even if I'm starting to get a bit uneasy about this, it still just seems the most logical choice. Will wait to cast my guard vote though for a bit.

At first she was excited to lynch Legate, and now she's uneasy? It was around this time some began to share the idea that if Legate turns out innocent, then it's probable that wilwa's a wolf. Knowing that Legate would be lynched and revealed innocent could've scared a wilwa wolf enough for her to change her behaviour and lose some confidence in hopes that it would make her look better.

The thing with Sally is that she always waits to the last second to vote, at least from what I can remember. So I don't know really how suspicious that makes her, it doesn't really to me anyway. I think it's just something she automatically does in order to always give, what she thinks is, a good vote. Cause even when someone is innocent they may still do things in order to not look suspicious.

Her defense of Sally combined with Sally's behaviour at the end of yesterDay makes me wonder if they could be wolves together.

Anyway, good job everyone! I'll post all of Inzil's posts in a couple of minutes, cause I don't think there were too too many. Might give us some info.

I'm always wary of posts that say "good job" or "hurray" after lynching a wolf. It just feels fake to me.

hmm, Hakon surprised me. I mean I know that he's still fairly new at this, but he was participating so much more then usual it seemed logical that he must of had people helping him out.

Interesting that she says it seemed logical that Hakon would be a wolf considering she didn't even vote for him. If she found him so suspicious yesterDay, why did she vote McCaber instead?

[Brinniel]

I really hope Sally shows up toDay, as I'd like to hear an answer to my question earlier. Her behaviour at the end of yesterDay makes me a bit suspicious of her, but then again I could be misunderstanding something, so I'm not sure.