Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXVIII: A Full Moon Over Innsmouth

[Pitchwife]

I'm back, and I notice there's been a lot of action in my absence.
Morsul certainly has been entertaining, but the show has collapsed by now. Probably Agent, so let's just ignore him for now.
Between Hakon and wilwa, it's hard to tell. Hakon's reveal certainly seems premature (now look who's talking!), but I think him quite capable of pulling off a gamble last Night; he might even be an ordo trying to confuse the wolves. On the other hand, wilwa blurting out that she's already protected me last Night would be strange if she's genuine - it's basically telling the wolves to come and get me. Right now I'm leaning slightly towards believing Hakon, but I'd advocate against lynching either of them toDay (sheer egoism: with two Priests around, my chances of survival are dramatically increased). Things may sort themselves out in the Morning.
So yes, we need to look at everybody else. Unfortunately I can't stick around much longer (must be off to work soon and won't be back before DL) and don't really have enough time for any deep analysis - so I'll do a hurried survey and then a hasty early vote *horror*.
Oh yes, and an urgent plea to our Changed: please stay quiet, there's enough confusion already!

(x-ed w/ Lari)

[Pitchwife]

Argh. This mess sucks. I'm afraid every vote I could make at the moment would be rushed and bordering on randomness, so I'll rather not vote at all toDay. If I survive, I'll make up for it toMorrow, promise - if not, good luck! Cthulhu bless you!

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

However, I am leaning towards what others are saying about him maybe being the Agent. Mostly because he is new to the game and possibly a new confused Agent would think of a bold and risky move to either get the wolves attention or to save the pack. Though I'm not sure who he is trying to save, but time(hopefully) will tell.

Nobody– I think he was hoping to get Pitchwife lynched, or at least left unprotected.

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

However, this could be a bold move by two wolves trying to survive. Or this is what my sleepy brain thinks could be a possibility.

In which case the wolves are in the interesting situation of having to keep the real Ranger (whoever that may be) alive, since his death would expose both of them. With only two wolves left, that seems suicidal.

What gets me is that both of them sound genuine! While at the same time each has done something about equally foolish/suspicious.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Oh yes, and an urgent plea to our Changed: please stay quiet, there's enough confusion already!

Good thinking. I was just about to reveal, but– darn it! Now look what you made me do <=Now that is a joke reveal.

EDIT:X'd with Pitchwife.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, first, let me sum up the Gifted nonsenses so that I may get this over with from my part.

Morsul I would believe is indeed an agent, Pitch is still most likely a real Dreamer, and as for the Priest, hard to say. I guess we should indeed let this sort out by itself, like Roa said.

1. No reason to lynch Morsul, as I'd think he's an Agent, and there is no reason whatsoever to lynch the Agent. (However, I sympathise with Crayon's vote, as I can see the point. Though not that I encourage such behavior in general.)

2. With the Rangers, we do more harm with lynching one than with letting them be, as if one of them is a real one and one a Wolf, then most likely it's the problem for the WWs, and they will kill the real Ranger one Night. It's really nonsense for the WWs to keep the real Ranger alive, at least by the end, when there are some six people remaining, if such a pair of them was still alive, then it'll be really easy to catch a Wolf then. Aside from that, Ranger can wreak havoc upon the WWs by protecting people, the longer he survives, the bigger his chances are. So I really say we leave these two be as well. (As for whom of them I believe more, I have some reasons for each, in short as for Hakon, I mostly said my feelings before when he revealed, only to note also I wonder that he used the word "ranger" and not "priest" to label himself, though whatever. Wilwa, in some ways it would make more sense, I could imagine her reacting like that if she was true Ranger, on the other hand... well, actually honestly, her revelation does not make much sense for me, even if she was a Ranger and even if she was a Wolf, but it could be pretty irrational, especially if she is true Ranger and sees Hakon's claim. But like I said, let's leave it be for now.)

That means, let's focus on others. I do not, alas, have much time to do anything now, but first, a few random remarks of what I noted while reading the thread. Later I hope to post something more yet.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Theoretically, Pitch could be a wolf, and his giving up SPM a plot to ensure his being thought innocent the rest of the game.
However, if Pitch survives beyond Day 3 or so, I would have to assume he was a wolf and go for him. Everyone knows that a revealed Seer is a dead Seer. It's only a matter of time. If he wasn't killed by the wolves after the oportunities for the Priest to protect him ran out, we'd have his number.
I do appreciate your giving me the all-clear though, as I am indeed innocent.

Okay, this is making me slightly uneasy, especially considering that Morsul indeed must be a fake. It looks like jumping on whatever train rides by, and maybe trying if there is a chance to get rid of the real Seer. On the other hand, perhaps it'd be slightly too uncautious from a wolf.

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

As for the seers, well the wolves would be really foolish to leave the real seer alive to continue dreaming. Which means that every day Morsul and Pitch are still alive, the should post their dreams. If either finds a wolf, we lynch the "wolf." If it's a real wolf, hooray, we killed a real wolf. If not we know who the liar is. If it's an innocent, well, when the real seer dies we will have a list of known innocents.

Logically, one of the seers is the Agent and one of the rangers is a wolf.

Everyone else, I highly doubt there is more than one wolf in the mix. Definitely the agent, a wolf, and two gifteds. Which mean that there is still a wolf out there. Let's let this mess sort it out, because it will, and move on to finding the other wolf hiding in all of this chaos.

Roa looks good to me, and I agree with the elaboration of hers above which I quote.

By the way, and this was asked before, maybe we should ask McCabber Himself, how many WWs are around, then? There is nothing on the Admin thread about it, and the first narration says something about "four paws", though that is by no means anything official.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Wow my memory is that bad huh? I'm so caught up in Pitchwife's claim I'm forgetting who's innocent... Well I hope a slip of memory doesn't make everyone make the wrong choice about the real seer

(I marked this post to quote while I was still reading the thread... well, hilarious, obviously )

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Please, people. If you are wrong about the person you think is a wolf, then you are killing a gifted, which plays right into the wolves hands. There is only a 1/4 chance of getting the right person, and 1/2 chance of killing a gifted. Are you really going to risk killing a gifted on odds like that? We need the ranger alive and we need the seer alive.

That mess will definitely sort itself out. Just leave it be for now and don't risk our gifted on something you can't be sure of.

Agreed, and just repeating it to prove the point.

Originally Posted by Loslote

I agree that we should leave them be. If Wilwa is the seer, then the wolves can kill Pitchie. But then we know that Hakon's a wolf, and we can lynch him. If Hakon's the seer, then they can't kill Pitchie toNight. But if Pitchie doesn't die, it doesn't prove that Hakon's the ranger, it just gives a bit more legitimacy to his claim. Therefore, we only know for sure who's the ranger if Pitchie dies toNight. I'm definitely not happy with that, but what can you do?

By the way, this is actually a pretty good point too. So we WILL basically know the true Ranger by the next morning, even if the WWs don't kill the real one.

Brinn looks good to me, too, and sensible, by her posting.

I did not, this far, pay much attention to Nogrod, as I'd really need to go through his posts and focus on him in particular. Anyway, he's not around today, I may do that as long as there are not too many posts, let's see. I also want to check Nerwen. Somebody said that Kitanna may be good in fooling the village, it's true she seems genuine to me, but who knows. I am probably going to check these people as soon as I can. But now, I will probably leave and not sure how long before DL I'll come back (I have also other RL things to do). I will drop by, if nothing more, though.

[Nienna]

Ok I have to vote now. Nerwen's recent posts are making me wary. I'm not sure if it is just because of her close-mindedness about Morsul or not though. I'm going to keep my eye on her.

I'm really sorry that Nog isn't around to defend himself but I have no other person I'm comfortable with lynching.

++Nog

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nienna

Ok I have to vote now. Nerwen's recent posts are making me wary. I'm not sure if it is just because of her close-mindedness about Morsul or not though. I'm going to keep my eye on her.

Fine by me... by why is it so important to you that people be open-minded about him? It's not as though I'm proposing to lynch him.

Originally Posted by Nienna

I'm really sorry that Nog isn't around to defend himself but I have no other person I'm comfortable with lynching.

++Nog

Why Nogrod? Because of Roa's points on him?

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Meanwhile, I'm not all that keen on Wilwa's willingness to believe Morsul (see #164).

Well at the beginning of the Day Pitch's first post just struck me the wrong way, but I wasn't planning to say anything right away, well honestly cause I didn't want to look bad. So when Morsul revealed I was more inclined to believe him, since Pitch had already looked suspicious to me. Obviously now I don't believe Morsul anymore. He's the Agent, he has to be, so I don't understand why people have voted for him, we should just leave him alone and try to get a wolf. The agent is harmless out in the open, they do far more damage when they're still hidden. So we're lucky here.

Now. This may make alot of sense, but it also may not, to me it does anyway. I think me, Hakon and Pitch will all still be alive tomorrow. Because Hakon is wolf, so they're not gonna kill him. And they're not gonna kill me cause they're gonna want Hakon to continue to look good, and in order to do that they have to keep Pitch alive (since that's who he's supposedly "protecting") and me being dead, well it'll reveal who I really am and the wolves don't want that right now.

So we know we get atleast one more dream out of Pitch (two actually because I can protect him the next Night). I don't think he should waste that dream on me, Morsul or Hakon. We already know Morsul is the Agent, no reason to waste a dream on that, and you all know either me or Hakon are the Priest and a Wolf. So therefore the dream should go towards someone else all together. Make sense?

So my vote won't go to Hakon or Morsul, I'm gonna look at everyone else and try to figure out who the other wolf is.

[Nogrod]

I'm finally back from the cosmological excavations and only starting to read (you know those days when everything you do takes double the time you think it will take...).

But I should be able to stick to the end toDay.

I'll try to get a grasp of what is going on first.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Now. This may make alot of sense, but it also may not, to me it does anyway. I think me, Hakon and Pitch will all still be alive tomorrow. Because Hakon is wolf, so they're not gonna kill him. And they're not gonna kill me cause they're gonna want Hakon to continue to look good, and in order to do that they have to keep Pitch alive (since that's who he's supposedly "protecting") and me being dead, well it'll reveal who I really am and the wolves don't want that right now.

So we know we get atleast one more dream out of Pitch (two actually because I can protect him the next Night). I don't think he should waste that dream on me, Morsul or Hakon. We already know Morsul is the Agent, no reason to waste a dream on that, and you all know either me or Hakon are the Priest and a Wolf. So therefore the dream should go towards someone else all together. Make sense?

No. You're saying that – contrary to our assumptions– the village will learn nothing about yours and Hakon's roles from toNight's kill? Then I'd say the Seer should definitely dream one of you!

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Now. This may make alot of sense, but it also may not, to me it does anyway. I think me, Hakon and Pitch will all still be alive tomorrow. Because Hakon is wolf, so they're not gonna kill him. And they're not gonna kill me cause they're gonna want Hakon to continue to look good, and in order to do that they have to keep Pitch alive (since that's who he's supposedly "protecting") and me being dead, well it'll reveal who I really am and the wolves don't want that right now.

I don't know that wolves would leave a generally accepted seer alive, just to keep up a charade by one of their number. I think the logic there is a bit flawed.
I do think the seer / ranger confusion ought not to be a concern of ours when it comes to votes right now.

Nog makes me a bit uneasy. There just seemed to be a common vibe between him and SPM yesterDay. That could have been an intention of SPM though, I suppose.

Loslote's vote on Pitch looked as though she was grasping at suspicion of Pitch started by Nog and SPM. GrantedSPM did vote for her, but wolf-on-wolf should not be considered out of the question there. One vote, against a fellow who had no others I don't think would be particularly risky, and would serve to create some distance between the two of them. Then again, those who know SPM well seem to think voting for a fellow on Day 1 would be out of character for him.

Nerwen seems pretty trustworthy to me, as does Roa.

Brinn also gives no cause for alarm at the moment.

Lari was saying SPM needed watching early on. She expressed some doubt about Pitch's reveal. I can't fault her for that, since it caught me by surprise too.

Craydon has been here. Votes for Morsul, which I think is a bit of a waste. No bad feeling about him though.

Kitanna has been somewhat under the radar for me. I can't recall anything that's given me much pause, but I haven't read over her posts carefully.

Legate seems like he might need watching for some reason, but it's nothing I can can out my finger on. It's not in anything in particular he's said; more the tone I guess.

Nienna might be the one I am most wary of now. There was the incident yesterDay with Morsul and his vote for her. She voted for Pitch, and like Loslote could have been picking up things thrown out about him by others to justify her vote. She said she thought Morsul's reveal had a joking quality to it, and thought Nerwen was 'closed minded' about Morsul. I thought Nerwen had been making quite a bit of sense. Has also voted Nog today. Hmm.

x/d with several

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

• Originally Posted by Inziladun
  Theoretically, Pitch could be a wolf, and his giving up SPM a plot to ensure his being thought innocent the rest of the game.
  However, if Pitch survives beyond Day 3 or so, I would have to assume he was a wolf and go for him. Everyone knows that a revealed Seer is a dead Seer. It's only a matter of time. If he wasn't killed by the wolves after the oportunities for the Priest to protect him ran out, we'd have his number.
  I do appreciate your giving me the all-clear though, as I am indeed innocent.

Okay, this is making me slightly uneasy, especially considering that Morsul indeed must be a fake. It looks like jumping on whatever train rides by, and maybe trying if there is a chance to get rid of the real Seer. On the other hand, perhaps it'd be slightly too uncautious from a wolf.

Interestingly, Zil was pretty ready to cast doubt on Pitch's reveal yesterDay, too. Of course, that's before we knew SPM's role.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

By the way, and this was asked before, maybe we should ask McCabber Himself, how many WWs are around, then? There is nothing on the Admin thread about it, and the first narration says something about "four paws", though that is by no means anything official.

There are three.

Originally Posted by Narration in Admin thread

You three, go to the city of Innsmouth. Find the root of the problem, and destroy it.

EDIT: X'd with Nienna.