Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXVIII: A Full Moon Over Innsmouth

[Inziladun]

I'm pretty much out of time here.

Wilwa's reasoning for Nienna struck me as suspicious, since she used almost the same wording as in my post. I was going to vote for Nienna myself, though.

Blast.

++ Nienna

And may I be right.

[Nerwen]

And you see, I'm now second-guessing myself on Nienna, for the same reasons the Inzil gives.

But who to vote for, then?

[Nerwen]

We could lynch Morsul, you know. Knowing his role for sure would help... and it least we can be pretty certain he's a baddie.

EDIT:X'd with 2 Roas.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

We could lynch Morsul, you know. Knowing his role for sure would help... and it least we can be pretty certain he's a baddie.

EDIT:X'd with 2 Roas.

That's a rather baddy-ish approach, you know. Or throwaway.

Anyway

++Inzil

EDIT: x-ed since my last

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I didn't "change my mind". I never said I was going to vote for Nienna, or even that I strongly suspected her. I brought up some things about her that I found suspicious, that's all.

Oh?

Originally Posted by Nerwen

What do you make of Nienna and her attempts to make out that Morsul wasn't "really" impersonating the Dreamer? Firstly she says she wasn't sure whether Morsul had actually revealed, and when I quoted the post in which he said "I'm the Dreamer", she suggests that it was just a joke (which it rather clearly wasn't).

Now, granted, Morsul seems to have a sufficiently shaky grasp of the rules that you couldn't 100% rule out him being an ordo who didn't understand what he was doing
– except, by that point he had basically confessed to being the Agent. (Whether he is that, or a wolf, remains to be seen.) I'm thinking– when a cobbler is exposed, who, besides the cobbler himself, has most reason to be dismayed?

EDIT:X'd with Lottie.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I would. Even a very confused ordo should have realised that he would only be getting the (presumed) real Dreamer killed if he succeeded. I mean, along with repeatedly denouncing "the impostor" Pitchwife, he also urged the Ranger not to protect him (#166). Does that sound like a misguided ordo trying to draw fire from the real Seer to you? Really?

Or possibly he really does think he's allowed to switch sides.

But of course, if he's just an ordo, then the false Priest– whichever it is– might be the real Agent. In which case if the real Priest were to die toNight, there'd be no call for us to lynch the impostor next Day...

You see why I'm getting worried about Nienna and her "if one of them's a wolf" business?

(emphasis mine) That looks like suspicion to me.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

And you see, I'm now second-guessing myself on Nienna, for the same reasons the Inzil gives.

But who to vote for, then?

If you were second guessing yourself on her, that implies that you intended to vote for her. To ask who to vote for at this time means that you had just then decided not to vote Nienna.

I know. But lynching any baddie is better than lynching an innocent... and I didn't see enough reason to vote anyone else.

Plus, Brinn, Craydon and Nienna, at least, had expressed doubt as to whether he was really the Agent– and that doubt is something the wolves could use.

And you suspected Nienna for expressing that doubt.

Again– you exaggerate, Roa. I did not "try so hard" to get convince people to think she was a wolf, and in fact I was taken aback when everyone started voting for her.

Look, give me some credit, will you? What good would it have done a wolf-me to make a throwaway vote then anyway? (Not that I intended it to be throwaway- there were still people left to vote then.)

You had been on her since Day 1. You pointed her out to others. You never came out and directly said you suspected her, but it's plainly there for anyone to see. Perhaps you thought that by not making direct statements you could claim that you never really suspected her at all.

I knew at the time my vote would bring me under scrutiny toDay– but I just didn't in conscience feel that I could vote for anyone else.

EDIT:fixed bolding; clarification.

Had you admitted to your suspicion of Nienna, and then acknowledged your change of heart because of what Wilwa did, I may have believed you. But outright denying that you ever suspected her when she was the only person you bothered to bring points against? I think I found a wolf.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I like Roa's analysis of me much better and she summarises my quotes more accurately and doesn't twist my words. But I will comment on the time stamp issue so to clarify things. Just so you know, I'm typically a very slow poster (I think I already spent 30+ minutes on this one) and writer in general, which is something I've always found frustrating. It probably has to do with my perfectionist nature and it means I take twice as long as anyone else to do an analysis. Of course this means sometimes I have a delayed response to things, but I promise it has nothing to do with role. I think in the case of Pitch's reveal, he revealed around the same time I started to post. When I hit preview, I saw his post but I didn't want to have to rewrite the entire post I just did, so I just submitted what I had and decided to give my response to his reveal in the following post. In the past, I have edited my post in preview mode as new posts come in but then I find myself spending twice as long composing the post just so it stays up-to-date. But especially when it's closer to deadline, I sometimes just can't keep up with the floods of posts that are coming in.

Alright, I figured it was something like that.
[/QUOTE]

Originally Posted by Craydon1

tada, I'm the Changed. Which is also why I've been silent among the priest cluster.

So.... ++Inzil.

Goes to sleep after a 21 hour day waiting for someone to say I'm telling a lie, and they are the real Changed.

Oh, sweetie... the changed is supposed to get killed. That's how you do your job. Though on the brightside, this means that wolves are unlikely to kill you. So I imagine you're hunting Inzil toNight. We'll see how that goes. This could work out quite well for us.

And hey, as long as there isn't a counter reveal, we have another known on our list. And if there is another counter reveal, well, we found our last wolf.

I probably just cross-posted with a bunch.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

You had been on her since Day 1. You pointed her out to others. You never came out and directly said you suspected her, but it's plainly there for anyone to see. Perhaps you thought that by not making direct statements you could claim that you never really suspected her at all.

No, Roa, I said I didn't strongly suspect her– not enough to vote her when it came down to it, anyway. That's all.

I did not claim in my last post that I never suspected her, and in saying that I did ("outright denying that you ever suspected her") you are seriously distorting what I did say.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

No, Roa, I said I didn't strongly suspect her– not enough to vote her when it came down to it, anyway. That's all.

I did not claim in my last post that I never suspected her, and in saying that I did ("outright denying that you ever suspected her") you are seriously distorting what I did say.

By saying that you never said you were going to vote for her you imply that you had no intention of doing so. You most certainly did, right up until she was about to get lynched. And not strongly? Aside from a very mild "Oh yes, suppose Nog and Inzil look kind of suspicious too" and a brief "wilwa makes me uneasy" she was the only person you brought points against, or considered suspicious in anyway. Not strongly compared to others, but your strongest suspicion by far.

[Roa_Aoife]

It occurs to me that we currently have 4 knowns now (assuming we all believe Crayon, which I do, as I don't think two wolves would false reveal- it's suicidal). Plus two people with a 50/50 of being a wolf. (Whether we get a wolf toDay or not, we should definitely start looking at those two toMorrow, as the numbers game will begin to shift away from our favor.)

Those are really good odds for us. I feel rather optimistic now.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

It occurs to me that we currently have 4 knowns now (assuming we all believe Crayon, which I do, as I don't think two wolves would false reveal- it's suicidal).

Also, the Hunter's perhaps not the wisest role to impersonate.

EDIT:X'd with Legate.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

By saying that you never said you were going to vote for her you imply that you had no intention of doing so. You most certainly did, right up until she was about to get lynched.

Sure, I thought about it. Then I decided she wasn't suspicious enough to lynch– as I've already mentioned, I also got alarmed by the way everyone was jumping in to vote her, particularly when one of those people had a 50% chance of being a wolf.

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

And not strongly? Aside from a very mild "Oh yes, suppose Nog and Inzil look kind of suspicious too" and a brief "wilwa makes me uneasy" she was the only person you brought points against, or considered suspicious in anyway. Not strongly compared to others, but your strongest suspicion by far.

Yes, she was my "strongest" suspicion, for what that's worth. In the end I decided that still wasn't strong enough to merit voting her, and that in the absence of a better candidate, it might be worth making sure Morsul was, in fact, the Agent.

EDIT:X'd with Roa.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Sure, I thought about it. Then I decided she wasn't suspicious enough to lynch– as I've already mentioned, I also got alarmed by the way everyone was jumping in to vote her, particularly when one of those people had a 50% chance of being a wolf.

Yes, she was my "strongest" suspicion, for what that's worth. In the end I decided that still wasn't strong enough to merit voting her, and that in the absence of a better candidate, it might be worth making sure Morsul was, in fact, the Agent.

EDIT:X'd with Roa.

If you truly believed that Morsul could be a wolf, then Wilwa only had a 1/3 chance of being a wolf.

As it is, you failed to explain this then, and now you're only coming up with it as you're being questioned. Your initial reaction was to say that never considered voting Nienna, then when presented with direct evidence to the contrary you admit it. You should have just admitted it from the start.

Edit: crossed

[Pitchwife]

Hi, I'm back. Brinn's first post toDay sounds genuine to me (and being a slow and over-polishing writer myself, I sympathize with her cross-posting problems). Cray's as well, though I don't think his reveal was the brightest thing to do. I mean, in the improbable case that the wolves would go for another no-trail-kill rather than get rid of me toNight, wouldn't it have been very convenient for us if they'd hit the Hunter and he'd taken one of them down with him? That's not very likely to happen now. On the good side, we can treat him as probably innocent for now (unless there's yet another counter-reveal), which narrows down the number of suspects.