Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXVIII: A Full Moon Over Innsmouth

[McCaber]

After their spiritual experience, the villagers separated out into the night and crawled back into their various holes.

Let's take a closer look at one of them. Kitanna, for instance. Even now she's already back at her house (or at least what's left of it after that unfortunate incident a few years back). She gives a soft sigh and opens the door. Inside, it's a mess. Sure, she means well, but there's only so much one can do in such a terrible setting. The bed in the corner is aged to pieces, a decrepit sink sits useless in the corner, and half the windows are shattered.

The one piece of beauty left in here is a single portrait hanging on the east wall. A young man with a far-off expression on his face; sweetly rendered even though the colors are long past their prime. She sits on the bed and stares at him for almost an hour. "Has it really been that long since then?" she whispers. "Twenty years to the night, and you still look as beautiful as ever." And the expression on her face changes. She gathers up her cloak and once more steps into the night.

Her steps lead her to the cliffs just outside of town. "This is where we would sit and watch the reef, on nights like this, with the full moon ..."

"The full moon! Gracious Lord, what am I doing?" She turns to run back, and the two shapes who followed her here move to cut her off.

"Now what sort of wolves would we be if we just let you go?" she hears. "At least make it a challenge for us," the other one snarls. All Kitanna can do is freeze in her tracks. Two quick slashes and it's all over. "That was hardly worth it. Throw her over and let's be done with it."

Her body bounces once off the cliff and then splashes into the ocean. The wolves depart hastily. All is still.

The villagers found her pulled onto shore that morning. The fishy smell on her lips was easily explained as seawater, and the large tracks around her body were wiped clean by the rising tides. But some, the wisest of the village, half-remembered a sound of weeping coming from the dark oceans late last night. And they remember the oldest of stories.

The Dead:
McCaber, town drunk and general layabout [mod]
Saucepan Man, disturbed and disturbing artist [werewolf]
A Little Green, blind ex-soldier [ordinary villager]
Nienna, innocent child and meteorologist [ordinary villager]
Kitanna, Innsmouth denizen [ordinary villager]

The Living:
Inziladun, fisherman
Pitchwife, heretical organist
Loslote, humble seamstress
Hakon, Innsmouth denizen
wilwa, Innsmouth denizen
Nogrod, student of alternate cosmologies
Roa, Innsmouth physician (with everything that entails)
Craydon1, penniless drifter
Nerwen, last scion of a decadent dynasty
Legate, displaced scholar of the Pnakotic Shards
Morsul, quiet librarian
Lairen Shadow, Innsmouth denizen
Brinn, Innsmouth denizen

IT IS NOW OFFICIALLY DAY 3.

[wilwarin538]

All of Kit's posts, don't think I missed any.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Ok, sorry, just got home from work. I'll be on now for a little over an hour reading and commenting. Whatever I don't get to before I go to bed I will finish when I wake up (roughly four hours before DL). So for now I'm off to read what I've missed.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

A lot of the early posts were "Day 1, bleh" or "DL isn't good for me Day 1 or Day 2" or "Good list Spm". For the most part not much other than "hey I'm here" posts. Which is fine.

A Little Green mentions all that I just did in her first post (post #11). Still Greenie does provide something to go on other than the afore mentioned posts. After her first two posts it seems the conversation turns away from usual Day 1 jabber into some more substantial.

Legate comes in next, commenting on what's been said so far. At this point he takes somewhat of a wait and see attitude, wanting to give those who haven't appeared a chance to speak.


Greenie brought this point up as well about the loud/quiet thing. Inziladun later comments on this as well. Personally, I think it's easier to tell if someone is quiet as a playing style or quiet to hide guilt after Day 2, but that's just how I've seen it in the past.

Wilwa makes a point here that I'm inclined to agree with and yet wonder about at the same time:

Now she makes a good point about how useful all these posts will be on Day 2. However, she calls for people to make noise and if some players have nothing to add than it'll be just white noise (adding absolutely nothing substantial for Day 2). Wilwa does this herself by stating how Day 1 is hectic and random, a well established fact at this point. Wilwa acknowledges this as stating the obvious, which adds white noise. That makes me wonder.

Later Wilwa defends this from Nogrod:

I'm not sure if I agree with that. It's good to post at least once before voting, but I don't think it's such a good idea to say next to nothing. Of course it's really a Catch-22.

In Post 31 the first vote is cast for Nienna by Morsul. I know he's inexperienced, but I'm baffled by his choice.

Back to Wilwa:

I think she has some sound advice trying not to look at vote counts. Of course I doubt many will actually do this, but I think that's a decent idea.

In general comments (because I'm falling asleep): I think Craydon puts forth an interesting idea, though I fail to see it as practical.
Morsul's vote, confused at best. Nienna's response to it, justified. The situation, amusing.
Hakon votes for Inziladun, mmmm. Granted Hakon had to vote early, but voting based on games past seems a bit dodgy.
Like Hakon, Loslote and Craydon had to vote early, but I can't find any reasoning for their votes.
(sorry these last comments are rushed)

I have some more comments to make and few more players to bring up, but I would like to review some posts with a clear head before saying anything else.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

That's shenanigans my dear Brinn, simple shenanigans.

Seriously though I've had some time to mull things over and clear my head. So before continuing where I left off last night I have a few general comments to make.

1) In regards to voting early, namely Loslote and Crayon. Neither one gave a reason, not even a terrible reason like "I picked this name out of a hat." Hakon also voted early, but he had a reason for his choice (not a good reason, but a reason). I see I'm not the only one who thinks like this:


2) Morsul's vote, not his own confused vote, but Nienna's reaction and reactions to Nienna's reaction. Nienna became annoyed, or maybe angry is a better word, when she discovered Morsul's faulty reasoning for his vote for her. She stated she didn't like being voted for in such a manner. This had Legate saying:

And Nogrod agrees with it.
Morsul makes a comment on the subject too:

Now, Nienna does react unusually strong to Morsul's vote. But, and please someone correct me if I'm wrong, at the time of Morsul's vote Nienna hadn't spoken yet had she? I myself was annoyed and angry Morsul listed me as a suspect in one of his earliest posts based on the narration. I see where Nienna's response would be seen as a red flag, but I'm having a hard time finding it overly suspicious.

3) I spoke considerably on Wilwa's suggestion for everyone to talk more, regardless of what they said in my last post and I'd like to finish up a thought on that.
But Day 1s are sooo useful on Day 2s, therefore we should all help ourselves out and post anyway, even if we have nothing to say or add. Just so that toMorrow we'll have something on everyone!

As I said before she makes a good point about these posts helping on Day 2, but this suggestion worries me as well. If we have half the village just repeating the same things or just doing random in character gibberish then we have nothing Day 2 and it essentially becomes almost like a second Day 1. I think everyone should post, but if people flood the thread with nonsense it becomes just as easy for wolves to hide behind that as it is to hide behind a mask of quietness. Wilwa should know this and that makes me wonder why she put the idea of "make lots of noise" out there in the first place.

Well I'm off to finish what I started before bed. I'll be around and hopefully posting until half an hour before DL.[/QUOTE]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I'm inclined to agree with you about her vote, but for different reasons. It seems stranger to me that she would accuse him of not having sound logic having played so many games in the past, considering I feel the same way about her own suggestion of making noise.



I feel this is just a matter of how different players react to different scenarios. I probably would have reacted the same as Nienna, which is why I'm willing to take her reaction as a panicked innocent rather than a panicked wolf. I'd rather see what how Nienna reacts when she receives a vote that is more than just a newbie's confusion. If the reaction is the same, then perhaps there's some merit to what Legate and Nogrod have said. For now I prefer to wait and see when it comes to Nienna.


I wonder if this is just Brinn's playing style though? I can't recall Brinn's first few posts, in any game, ever being more than "fluff".

Edit: x-posted with Pitchwife

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Apologies, I missed the "If she contributes no further".


So then does that mean you find something unusual about his playing style and/or vote? I'm confused because this is really the first mention you've made of who you suspect and I'm not even sure you suspect him.
And Nienna probably won't be on again to answer my queries before Day 1 ends, but why Pitchwife? I realize this is a random/gut vote, but what Pitchwife say to give you a gut feeling in the first place?

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I got called into work early, so I have to vote now.

I'm starting to wonder about Nienna based on her vote. That's not enough for me to vote for her though. I'm curious as to what she has to say regarding it. That said...

++ Wilwa

I've said before what I think of Wilwa and her idea, no need to repeat them in their entirety. In short, to me it looks like she could be calling for noise to hide in. Her vote doesn't help her either. She voted for Hakon based on his vote, accusing him of something that she is doing herself. Maybe I'm completely misjudging Wilwa, but right now she looks the most unusual to me.

Day 2

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Morsul, Nogrod, Wilwa, Pitchie, Loslote, Craydon, Inzil, Larien and Nerwen all are players SpM mentioned beyond his first in character post. I think that's everyone at least. In his vote post he mentioned being wary of Pitchwife, Inzil, Larien and Nerwen, and in the end voted for Loslote.

Now since it was only Day 1 I wonder how much distant he would have put between himself and the other wolves. I'm going to believe Pitchwife is telling us the truth because I doubt a baddie would do a false reveal so early, especially with only mediocre suspicion around them. So that leaves Inzil, Larien, Loslote, and Nerwen as SpM suspects. Based on SpM's vote I'm the least wary of Loslote. However, I'm going to go check out their posts, as well as the posts of the other people SpM mentioned in seriousness.

As for Greenie she was probably a no trace kill.

Ok off to review some posts.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Inzil
Post 1: In character
Post 2: Comments on a post made by Greenie. Mentions there is a difference between playing style and a "a non-entity that slips quietly through the cracks"
Post 4: Thinks Nogrod and SpM overreacted to Pitchwife's first post.
Post 5: Comments on Craydon's idea of asking questions of the village.
Post 7: Comments on Hakon's vote. Mentions SpM, but it looks like this is only an example of not using meta-game voting.
Post 8: Throws some suspicion Loslote's way. Also he mentions Nienna's reaction to Morsul's vote as seeming a bit odd. Decides to stay away from Craydon based on newness and Hakon for being his usual self.
Post 10: Asks Pitchie if revelation was a bit premature.
Post 11: Votes SpM
Post 12: Says Pitchie could be the agent, but decides whatever happens on Day 1 will give us something for Day 2.
The posts I left out weren't anything of real interest, mostly just quick responses to this or that.
In conclusions, Inzil doesn't seem good or bad either way. He voted like everyone else did after the reveal so there's nothing to go on there. He mentioned all three of the knowns (SpM, Greenie, and Pitchie), but didn't really say much about any of them. As far as I can tell Inzil didn't really find anyone suspcious, though he did have a few things to say about Loslote and Nienna, but none of that suggested he'd have voted for them yesterday.

Lariren
Post 1: Mostly Day 1 jabber. Agrees we should stay positive about catching a wolf that day.
Post 2: Puts a little suspicion out there on SpM, suggesting he could have been trying to hint to the wolves to "play their parts". Suggests Hakon may be trying to throw off suspicion by throwing it on SpM. Questions Loslote's jump on Craydon's idea.
Post 3: Vote count, lists suspects. Loslote, Hakon, SPM, and Brinn make her need watching list. Wilwa alone falls in the "keep them around" list.
Post 4: Explains what she meant about keeping Wilwa around, wanted to say seems innocent in a new way. Mentions Nienna's reaction to her vote, but doesn't find it anything special. Another vote count.
Post 5: Wary of Pitchie's reveal, says she'll vote SpM or possibly Hakon.
To me Lariren seems a bit more dodgy than Inzil, but not by a lot. In her list she says who she wants to watch and why, but doesn't say much else about what she thinks. Her vote for SpM isn't a surprise and I think she might have voted that way regardless of the reveal.

That's what I have time for now. ToDay is a bad day for me because of work. I'll be around for an hour or so in a few hours then I'll reappear once more about four hours before DL. I'll finish my looks into those SpM suspected and talked about later.

Didn't see anymore posts from her, so unless I missed some I'm assuming she didn't come back.
So she posted much more on Day 1 then on Day 2, and nothing yesterday really stands out to me. So I'm guessing she was yet another no-trail kill, unless someone sees something I don't.

Curious to know who Pitch dreamt of??

I only have about half an hour and then I have to work, for a long time, it sucks cause when I signed up for this game I had today off, but someone called in sick and now I have to go in. ToDay is going to be just dreadful for me.

[Roa_Aoife]

Hi, I'm here. I'm going through Kit's posts.

As a side note: It's totally unnecessary to repost all of the posts that a person made to analyze them. Summarize, people. Summarize.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Hi, I'm here. I'm going through Kit's posts.

As a side note: It's totally unnecessary to repost all of the posts that a person made to analyze them. Summarize, people. Summarize.

I just find it way easier for myself to quote them all and then read them all together (everyone's got their methods), and I don't really have time to summarize today anyway.

[Craydon1]

I'm jumping on to let people know that I will be on today, but probably toward the end. So not much from me till later. If I can get on my friend's internet later than I'll post.

[Nogrod]

Alrighty... Sorry about those last minutes yesterDay. I hadn't have time enough to get a firm hold of the situation and when I realised that Roa was trying to get me lynched just that easily some pretty nasty memories filled my mind. And looking at her influence in here it was actually quite a realistic scenario she could have succeeded.

But I should have time toDay and promise to make good for the quite inactive two first Days.


Well, the wolves didn't try Pitchie toNight. The question becomes, why?

Also I find it interesting right now that it was Kit they chose, and not fex. Roa and Legate as it seems basically no one suspects them...

And these two questions I find inter-related.

So they didn't try Pitchie, and the only reason for that would be that they were afraid of the ranger. But if they believed so strongly that the ranger would be able to protect Pitch as to not even try the seer, then why on earth not kill people like Roa or Legate who would then be pretty probably without protection?

Or is the whole scenario flawed in some basic way? I need to do some work but will return to these questions - and others in an hour or two.

[Inziladun]

I hate that I was wrong about Nienna. The manner in which Wilwa climbed onto that made me very uneasy, but I was up against the wall for time, and decided to stick with my best guess and hope for the best.

I think we should individually look at Kitanna's posts, and not trust anyone in particular to do it for us. That keeps a wolf from deceiving us, and also gives the possibility one might pick up on something others missed.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So they didn't try Pitchie, and the only reason for that would be that they were afraid of the ranger. But if they believed so strongly that the ranger would be able to protect Pitch as to not even try the seer, then why on earth not kill people like Roa or Legate who would then be pretty probably without protection?

They also kept away from the Priest claimants, when they could have likely gotten either of them. Perhaps they thought it would sow more confusion among us if we still have doubts about who to trust. Leaving the Dreamer around another Night could be highly dangerous for them, or at least I'm hoping so. I'm anxious to hear Pitch's dream, as long as it wasn't Kitanna.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Well, the wolves didn't try Pitchie toNight. The question becomes, why?

Also I find it interesting right now that it was Kit they chose, and not fex. Roa and Legate as it seems basically no one suspects them...

And these two questions I find inter-related.

Like I said yesterDay, because if they killed Pitch it would be obvious that Hakon is lying (since he was supposedly protecting him), just like if they killed me it would be obvious Hakon's lying. They want him to continue to look good. I actually wouldn't be surprised if all three of us are alive yet again tomorrow (or if any of us die it'll be me, since I will protect Pitch tonight, and Hakon is one of them) but they may just leave us all be, make Hakon look good and hope to make me look bad, to see how long they can fool everyone, I don't know, it's hard to say what kind of risks they're willing to take. We're actually kind of lucky Hakon falsly revealed, because it's getting us more seer dreams then we would have had otherwise. If he hadn't of done that Pitch would have probably been killed last Night. This way we're getting atleast 2 more seer dreams then we would have had.

x'ed with inzil

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Alrighty... Sorry about those last minutes yesterDay. I hadn't have time enough to get a firm hold of the situation and when I realised that Roa was trying to get me lynched just that easily some pretty nasty memories filled my mind. And looking at her influence in here it was actually quite a realistic scenario she could have succeeded.

Ironically, your reaction to my suspicion reminded me of a familiar scenario. I goes like this:

Innocent Roa: "Your logic is flawed!"
Innocent Nogrod: "Your argument has no basis!"
Both: "Rawrsnarlgrrhiss!" *attempt to kill each other*
Wolves: "ROFL!!!!!!"

I couldn't have lynched you if other people hadn't also suspected you as well. And Nerwen, no, it doesn't look evil, because Nogrod always automatically suspects people who suspect him. It's just his way.

Well, the wolves didn't try Pitchie toNight. The question becomes, why?

Also I find it interesting right now that it was Kit they chose, and not fex. Roa and Legate as it seems basically no one suspects them...

Because A. They're afraid of the ranger. B. They're playing a very risky game. C. I leave a humongous trail of evidence to follow. D. I almost always get myself lynched when innocent. People don't believe this, which I find humorous, given my ratio of games played to games survived is much lower than my ratio of times as wolf to games played ratio. It's a fact- I'm lynchable no matter how many people "trust" me, because eventually they decide to lynch me on principal.

And these two questions I find inter-related.

So they didn't try Pitchie, and the only reason for that would be that they were afraid of the ranger. But if they believed so strongly that the ranger would be able to protect Pitch as to not even try the seer, then why on earth not kill people like Roa or Legate who would then be pretty probably without protection?

My question is why didn't they kill the real ranger? If they're afraid of the ranger, it makes sense to get him/her out of the way so that they have a clear path to the seer. The only reason not to is continue with this rediculous gamble. And besides, assuming the ranger was protecting Pitch, NO ONE ELSE in the village would have been protected, and NO ONE suspected Kitanna. She had such little attention on her that it would have been remarkable for her to suddenly gain the spotlight and get lynched. She's hardly comparable to you and I and Legate even when it comes to stage hogging.

[Roa_Aoife]

Besides, the last few minutes of the previous Day set the tone and made it clear that you at least would come after me, so why kill me off and save the village from one massive distraction?

[Inziladun]

Well, my results of looking at Kit's posts suggest that her main suspect was Wilwa. That's who she voted for on Day 1 (she doesn't seem to have voted on Day 2). She didn't like Wilwa's Day 1 vote aginst Hakon.
She did an analysis of Lari and me, thinking Lari looked slightly 'dodgier'.
Other than this, my best guess is they went for her because, as Roa said, she hadn't been seriously suspected of anything and it was unlikely they could get her lynched. There were (and are) better candidates for their efforts on that score, including me.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Also I find it interesting right now that it was Kit they chose, and not fex. Roa and Legate as it seems basically no one suspects them...

Maybe they are just too sporty, like you often are, and rather would prefer to sportily lynch us [/sarcasm]

Anyway, on a serious note. As for Kitanna's death, it seems likely to me that indeed she was just a safe kill which creates no trail, is not going to be protected, maybe even could be assumed to be the target of a Seer dream, given how little was known about her? Anyway, there is still the question "before" this one: that is, okay, but why not one of the Rangers and co.
Well, I guess the reason would be an attempt to create confusion. There is basically no other explanation, obviously. But let me try to construct how it would work if Ranger A or Ranger B is the real one and the other was a Wolf, maybe that will help to cast some light on it (I am doing that for myself, "on the run", not sure if it will produce any valuable results, but let's see).

Case 1: Hakon is a real Ranger, Wilwa is a Wolf
The Wolves know Wilwa is one of them, therefore they also know Hakon is a real Ranger. Hakon, the real Ranger, said he can protect the Seer toNight. Therefore, there is no sense for them to attack the Seer. They could attack the Ranger, but what would that mean? That would mean instant death for Wilwa on the following Day. So not clever, possibly, better to keep the confusion around for a while and let us lynch a few more innocents at least?

Case 2: Wilwa is the Ranger, Hakon is a Wolf
Vice versa. Wilwa, the Ranger, said she cannot protect the Seer toNight. It would make sense for the WWs to attack the Seer, then, and get rid of him. It would mean, though, that Hakon will be exposed as a lying Ranger (though they could still try to outtalk it on the next Day, that he actually could not have protected the Seer, but he was bluffing to try to save him for one, resp. two more Nights). It is also distinctly possible that Wilwa the Ranger would be bluffing and actually protecting the Seer that Night, in that case, it would be a risk of losing the kill, and also helping Wilwa prove her innocence (as people would probably assume it was her who stopped the kill).

Well, if I were to choose the first scenario seems more plausible to me, somehow. But anyway... I guess what I am looking forward to the most now is to see Pitchwife's dream.

I need to think of things, too, and go through posts of people probably, again. I will be around for quite a while now.

EDIT: x-ed with Inzil and Nog

[Loslote]

Personally, I still think Hakon is a wolf, but I'm not nearly as certain who the other wolf is. My top guesses are Nogrod and [B]Brinn[B].

Brinn, first post, said she suspected everyone and was totally paranoid. Everyone rolled their eyes and ignored her. SPAM, first post, said he suspected everyone, too. We all laughed and forgot about it. I don't know if two wolves would do the same first post, but it does seem to have bought her a bit of time. Also, she's not been very active, so no one's focusing on her. I'm uneasy with the way everyone is giving her free pass.

Nogrod, Roa wasn't the first person to go for you. That was Nienna. Why are you blaming Roa? Also, you're asking why the wolves didn't kill Roa or Legate. Why should they? They're both very vocal players, and soon enough they'll say something that'll make us all lynch them. The wolves would have no reason to kill them, whereas Kitanna was trailless. We can't say why the wolves do anything, of course, but we also can't say why they wouldn't.

Edit: xed with Legate, Inzil, and Nogrod.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But what this actually tells us is that unlike some of you might think we shouldn't keep both our rangers alive indefinitively. One of them actually has to be a wolf and even if our numbers are nice at the moment they will dwindle with two by day - and trying them out will take two days (if we get it wrong the first time) meaning we may lose four people getting rid of one wolf. So we should not leave that to the last possible moment...

Which is not to say lynch one of them toDay. But in one or two Days we'd probably have to take sides with that issue.

Definitely agreed. Like you say, the moment had not arrived yet. We still have some time.

I see you Roa make an interesting "pre-defence" of yourself saying you are easy to lynch which would make you not on the top of their target lists were you innocent. I think I need to disagree with you there. If I was a wolf I would be darn terrified of you, anyway much more than I would be terrified of Kit. Just compare the "lynchability" after presenting something like "a case" on either of you two, or the influence either of you could have on the village if you got it right...

Well, I don't really know, Noggoth, but I think it was you who were modding the last game only a couple of weeks ago, and innocent Roa was lynched there quite splendidly with a large contribution of mine and other innocents, and you said yourself how you enjoyed watching the mistake happen, so I think you should have it in fresh enough memory not to speak too lightly of Roa's "lynchability"...

Anyway, as for that, maybe I am a lot too more careful after what happened the last time (if Roa is a Wolf this time, I may pity it), but I certainly am against making any artificial cases, and this far I do not have any reasons to suspect her. She seems okay. And I don't see what is your case against her (looks just artificial, as if you decided "Roa cannot be innocent, let's prove it"). Though there is something fishy on the whole business. Anyway, it's not what I want to concern myself with now. My questionmark still hovers above Inziladun, for example. Hm, I could really re-read some older posts people made.

EDIT: x-ed with Roa

[Loslote]

I don't suspect Inzil for the simple reason that he won't stop suspecting me. Most people saw SPAM's vote and said, "Okay then. Cross Lottie off the list." But Inzil thinks I'm a wolf, so he didn't. I think a wolf would let that one go, so since Inzil didn't, I don't think he is guilty.

Roa I can't say. She has been very helpful, and I don't see anything suspicious, but I also don't see anything that proves she can't be a wolf.

Legate makes good points sometimes, but other times he posts fluffy nothings, as I've said before. That doesn't add up to wolf in my book.

Crayon hasn't been the most vocal, but what he says seems to be well-thought out and helpful. I'm not suspicious of him.

I don't have much on Lari. She could easily be a wolf, but she doesn't jump out to me as one.

I'm waiting on Pitchie's dream. No suspicions there.

Edit: xed with Pitchie

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Brinn, first post, said she suspected everyone and was totally paranoid. Everyone rolled their eyes and ignored her. SPAM, first post, said he suspected everyone, too. We all laughed and forgot about it. I don't know if two wolves would do the same first post, but it does seem to have bought her a bit of time. Also, she's not been very active, so no one's focusing on her. I'm uneasy with the way everyone is giving her free pass.

Didn't want to write it out again.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Didn't want to write it out again.

I see. A lot of people make their first post of the game into banter, whether wolf or innocent. There are much better reasons to suspect someone.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Hm, as for having read Lari, I guess it would be good to see her around and posting more to get a better picture about her. This far, she could be 50-50 either for me. Though that suspicion of SpM on Day 1 would be somewhat too complicated to think of if it was orchestrated, but then, I really don't know that much about Lari to conclude how complicated schemes she could make (if it wasn't given as an idea to her by SpM himself anyway). Well, though I really don't know. Don't see her in particular as good as to vote for, but certainly watching her for now. Let's see what comes up.

Hm, I have the feeling that I had some other thought on my mind, but possibly forgot it.

Oh yes, maybe it was this, though I'm not sure - Crayon. Submarine. Scary. I know basically nothing about him. Though, well, what can one do about a newbie. And a submarine newbie. I hope he will be posting more on further Days, at least.

[Nogrod]

Here's the voting first with quotes of reasons given. There are no explanations for known innocent votes (to save time).


Morsul -> Nienna
(“firstly she acts far too innocent to be also notice Mccab put quotes around innocent Hmm a slip on our mods part?”)
Hakon -> Inzil
(“He has a track record as being a wolf and he has gotten past my radar every time. I am not taking the risk of letting him live.”)
Loslote -> Pitchie
(“same as Inzil, only his posts worry me more. He seemed to be jokingly trying to get on everyone's good side...but it might just be Day 1 behavior.” What she said of Inzil: “I'm not entirely comfortable with him, but nothing that I can really base a suspicion on.”)
Crayon -> Inzil 2
(no reason whatsoever given for the vote)
wilwa -> Hakon
(“So...Hakon has played many games, and therefore should have some better logic by now I would think. His vote and comments are weird and I don't like them”)
Spm -> Loslote
(“Overall, Loslote’s activity comes across to me as typically Wolfish. Posting a fair bit to show she’s engaged, trying to look helpful, but actually avoiding saying very much of anything at all.”)
- 1.42 Nienna -> Pitchie 2
- 1.28 Nogrod -> Nienna 2
- 1.13 Kit -> wilwa
- 1.12 Roa -> Spm
(“Because he has been throwing around suspicion as if it had the full weight of sound reasoning behind it when it didn't. And also because in all of his actual suspicions (not counting the banter) someone else expressed if not suspicion then unease or wariness in that direction first, which he then played up into a case with no merit.”)
- 1.05 Pitchie -> Spm
- 0.48 Inzil -> Spm 2
(“If this turns out to be a bust, we'll have an obvious target toMorrow.”)
- 0.45 Legate -> Spm 3
(“I don't think there is anything to wonder about, it would really make no sense to make a claim here if it was untrue...”)
- 0.43 Nerwen -> Spm 4
(“Well, then, it's now easy)
- 0.34 Greenie -> Spm 5
- 0.32 Lari -> Spm 6
(“If he is a wolf, that will validate Pitch.”)
- 0.18 Brinn -> Spm 7
(“Okay, I believe you since I see absolutely no reason a baddie would false reveal at this point, but I still think it is rather premature to be revealing even if you have caught a wolf. For one thing, seers have been known to catch two wolves in the past, but revealing now severely limits that opportunity. Though I'm glad at least you waited until the end of the Day so that we'll still have plenty of posts to analyse toMorrow from before we knew Spm's role (and thus be more likely to find connections).”)


A few other remarks on Day1 (looking basically at Inzil - but also Spm, Hakon and wilwa).

EDIT: Blah... I pushed the send button when I was trying to push the preview button... Okay, the rest in a minute...

[Nogrod]

Just one more speculation at this hour...

Now clearly the fact that the wolves didn't try to kill Pitchie - which we should know for certain as Kit died - would point towards Hakon being actually the real ranger and thus cast the suspicion on wilwa.

Now didn't they have any other choices or was it their intention to make wilwa look bad?

But what this actually tells us is that unlike some of you might think we shouldn't keep both our rangers alive indefinitively. One of them actually has to be a wolf and even if our numbers are nice at the moment they will dwindle with two by day - and trying them out will take two days (if we get it wrong the first time) meaning we may lose four people getting rid of one wolf. So we should not leave that to the last possible moment...

Which is not to say lynch one of them toDay. But in one or two Days we'd probably have to take sides with that issue.

Why I'm thinking about these things now then? Well looking at how indecisive the "results" of the last Night are I have not a too optimistic view on how the Nightly kills will enlighten us on the issue.

Originally Posted by Roa

And Nerwen, no, it doesn't look evil, because Nogrod always automatically suspects people who suspect him. It's just his way.

Not exactly. I suspect those people who time their efforts to lynch me when innocent too nicely - or make a too heavy effort on Day1 or 2 with minimal arguments. In both cases I see an evil intent trying to get me lynched and not being honestly trying to lynch a baddie as the first priority.

Originally Posted by Roa

My question is why didn't they kill the real ranger? If they're afraid of the ranger, it makes sense to get him/her out of the way so that they have a clear path to the seer. The only reason not to is continue with this rediculous gamble. And besides, assuming the ranger was protecting Pitch, NO ONE ELSE in the village would have been protected, and NO ONE suspected Kitanna. She had such little attention on her that it would have been remarkable for her to suddenly gain the spotlight and get lynched. She's hardly comparable to you and I and Legate even when it comes to stage hogging.

I'm not sure which one of has the faulty logic here... or well, a very differing view of things at least.

By killing the real ranger last Night the wolves would have most probably exposed one of them (the false ranger) whom we would have then lynched toDay - leaving one wolf alone against the entire village.

And yes, I was saying the same: if the wolves thought Pitch was protected they had an open invitation to pick anyone they wished. But I would think they would go for those who could be influental threats to them rather than trying to pick someone who's not been too openly in the spotlight thus far.

I see you Roa make an interesting "pre-defence" of yourself saying you are easy to lynch which would make you not on the top of their target lists were you innocent. I think I need to disagree with you there. If I was a wolf I would be darn terrified of you, anyway much more than I would be terrified of Kit. Just compare the "lynchability" after presenting something like "a case" on either of you two, or the influence either of you could have on the village if you got it right...

Oh you had one more...

Originally Posted by Roa

Besides, the last few minutes of the previous Day set the tone and made it clear that you at least would come after me, so why kill me off and save the village from one massive distraction?

Sorry to disappoint you, but I was not being a clever wolf there. Sadly I was just acting stupidly from a moment's passion. The last minute fever...

But then again I'm not too sure I would have something like a major issue to go after you toDay... I mean why would I? I should try to look for a wolf here, not look for how to get a certain person lynched wgatever s/he is.

But as I said, I'll be back a little later (I just decided to look at the situation and maybe post some elementary thoughts of our situation and here a full hourr has already gone...).

And with an eye to everyone, not just you Roa.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Just one more speculation at this hour...

Now clearly the fact that the wolves didn't try to kill Pitchie - which we should know for certain as Kit died - would point towards Hakon being actually the real ranger and thus cast the suspicion on wilwa.

Now didn't they have any other choices or was it their intention to make wilwa look bad?

That's actually quite interesting, since the only thing Kitanna's death point to (mind you I haven't finished going through Day 2) is Wilwa. Could that have been a factor in choosing Kitanna.

But what this actually tells us is that unlike some of you might think we shouldn't keep both our rangers alive indefinitively. One of them actually has to be a wolf and even if our numbers are nice at the moment they will dwindle with two by day - and trying them out will take two days (if we get it wrong the first time) meaning we may lose four people getting rid of one wolf. So we should not leave that to the last possible moment...

Indefinitely? Of course not. But the wolves would be foolish to leave a gifted alive longer than they absolutely have to. The longer they leave the ranger alive, the more careful they have to be in their kills, and if they fail and the ranger comes out and says who they protected, well, that's as good as a seer's dream.

Which is not to say lynch one of them toDay. But in one or two Days we'd probably have to take sides with that issue.

I'm certain people already have.

Not exactly. I suspect those people who time their efforts to lynch me when innocent too nicely - or make a too heavy effort on Day1 or 2 with minimal arguments. In both cases I see an evil intent trying to get me lynched and not being honestly trying to lynch a baddie as the first priority.

But if I think you are a baddie, then honestly trying to lynch you is honestly trying to lynch a baddie, isn't it? See, while you may be sure of your role, I have no means of that except your death or a seers dream. I hardly made a heavy effort- I posted analysis, not just of you, but of several people that SPM mentioned. Not because it's you, but because a known wolf talked about you in ambiguous terms. Contrary to your perceptions, I just want to find a wolf, not go after you because it's fun. As for my vote- it was your lack of reaction to my "trying hard to lynch you" (which I wasn't) that made me ultimately change my mind from voting for Inzil to voting for you.

I'm not sure which one of has the faulty logic here... or well, a very differing view of things at least.

By killing the real ranger last Night the wolves would have most probably exposed one of them (the false ranger) whom we would have then lynched toDay - leaving one wolf alone against the entire village.

Which I mentioned- it was point B. Please read before responding.

And yes, I was saying the same: if the wolves thought Pitch was protected they had an open invitation to pick anyone they wished. But I would think they would go for those who could be influental threats to them rather than trying to pick someone who's not been too openly in the spotlight thus far.

By your logic, you shouldn't be alive this morning either. And we are easy to lynch. You don't get rid of someone who's easy to lynch. You get them lynched during the day.

I see you Roa make an interesting "pre-defence" of yourself saying you are easy to lynch which would make you not on the top of their target lists were you innocent. I think I need to disagree with you there. If I was a wolf I would be darn terrified of you, anyway much more than I would be terrified of Kit. Just compare the "lynchability" after presenting something like "a case" on either of you two, or the influence either of you could have on the village if you got it right...

Again, by your logic, you should be a top candidate for the kill as well. You also wouldn't false reveal as a gifted in the manner as was done yesterday. I think it's pretty clear the wolves aren't playing like you.

Oh you had one more...
Sorry to disappoint you, but I was not being a clever wolf there. Sadly I was just acting stupidly from a moment's passion. The last minute fever...

I didn't think you were. If you were paying attention to my post at all, you would see that I am fairly certain of your innocence. You are letting past games get into your head and not actually thinking clearly. Calm down- I don't want to lynch you.

But then again I'm not too sure I would have something like a major issue to go after you toDay... I mean why would I? I should try to look for a wolf here, not look for how to get a certain person lynched wgatever s/he is.

Because at the end of Day 2, you were sure that I was evil. It's follows that you would continue to think so toDay. And if you are trying to kill wolves, and you think that I'm a wolf, it follows that you would try to kill me.

But as I said, I'll be back a little later (I just decided to look at the situation and maybe post some elementary thoughts of our situation and here a full hourr has already gone...).

And with an eye to everyone, not just you Roa.

I hope you return soon, because I'm fairly sure we are on the same side. And I'd like to know your opinion of people other than myself.

Edit: crossed with Legate and Loslote

[Pitchwife]

I'm here - and baffled by the fact that the wolves didn't go for any of the gifted last Night. wilwa predicted this might happen, which makes me wonder whether she just guessed the wolves' strategy correctly in her #221 or had inside information on their plans. Anyway, they're playing a risky game here, and I hope we'll be able to turn it against them.
My dreams revealed no wolf last Night, but unlike yesterDay, I'm now able to give you a known innocent. I hesitate to do this, as it will make him a target for the wolves, but looking back at yesterDay's votes, I think some clearing up is in order. Besides, I guess one of the wolves' motives in not attempting to kill me is to tarnish my credibility, and I'd like to spoil that game for them.
Nogrod is a faithful follower of Cthulhu - to be precise, an ordo.
Sorry for signing your death warrant, Nog - but if the wolves decide first to go for the gifted after all, that should give you another Day or two, and if they kill you first, they have to take the risk that I'll expose another of them.
Roa, sorry for not complying with your request. If it's any consolation, you've been on my shortlist for dreaming from the beginning - but up to now, you haven't done a single thing that cried 'wolf' to me, while Nog was under considerable suspicion yesterDay and I had doubts of him myself. To be frank, with his role now known, I don't quite like your vote for him which may have pushed him to voting Nienna to save himself, but I can see you doing this out of genuine suspicion, and on the other hand, I don't think a wolf would ask for being dreamed like you did.

[Inziladun]

Thanks, Pitch. Useful to at least have a known innocent around.
If the wolves are going to play the game of leaving around all the various claimants to confuse us, I think it's time to take sides now, and vote for the Priest claimant we think most suspicious. I know: we don't want to lynch a gifted. But in this case, even if we were that unfortunate we'd be led to a likely wolf. Time is not on our side here. There are still two wolves left, and every Day we let this issue continue to be a thorn in our side plays into the hands of the wolves. I think voting for one of the two could tell us much.
Wilwa has made an appearance already. I wonder what Hakon has to say toDay.

x'd with Loslote, who is right. She's still not off the hook.

[Roa_Aoife]

Kill our ranger, leave our seer wide open to attack on a 50/50? When we have 2 wolves in a village of 14? The situation isn't that dire. We don't need to risk it yet. Day 4 may be different depending on how the lynch goes, but I don't think it's worth the risk at this moment. I personally have no idea about the priests. I'm not going to vote for one and risk leaving our seer unprotected. Not when we have overwhelming numbers on our side.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Kill our ranger, leave our seer wide open to attack on a 50/50? When we have 2 wolves in a village of 14? The situation isn't that dire. We don't need to risk it yet. Day 4 may be different depending on how the lynch goes, but I don't think it's worth the risk at this moment. I personally have no idea about the priests. I'm not going to vote for one and risk leaving our seer unprotected. Not when we have overwhelming numbers on our side.

I know it's a risk, but I really think it would help us. We should be able to either lynch a wolf or be led to one within the next Day, leaving us only one wolf to deal with. I didn't expect this to be greeted with wild support, but I think we should deprive the wolves of this tool to confuse us.

[Roa_Aoife]

Kitanna

Day 1

Post 1- Basic "I'm here"

Post 2- remark about the uselessness of the first posts, says Greenie managed to turn the conversation to something more substantial, legate took a wait and see attitude, remark about the loud/quiet debate, finds Wilwa's suggestion about people making noise unhelpful, is confused by Morsul's choice, like's wilwa's advice about ignore vote counts, thinks Hakon's vote is dodgy, doesn't see a reason for Loslote or Crayon's votes.

Her remarks are very general, and aside from slight suspcion towards Wilwa, doesn't really state anything concrete.

Post 3- Calls shenanigans on Brinn, Thinks that Loslote and Crayon's lack of a reason is suspicious, sees where Nienna's reaction could have been a red flag but doesn't find it suspicious, still worried by Wilwa's suggestion

She continues with suspicion of Wilwa. Why didn't Wilwa comment on this in her analysis?

Post 4- Agrees with legate that Wilwa's vote is suspicious, doesn't find Nienna's reaction suspicious, thinks that Brinn is just playing her style.

She doesn't find Nienna or Brinn suspicious, but still is suspicious of Wilwa

Post 5- response to Roa, "Apologies, I missed the "If she contributes no further"." Questions Nienna about her suspicions and vote

Post 6- Wonders slightly about Nienna based on vote, Vote Wilwa based on earlier suggestion and her vote for Hakon

So at the end of Day 1 she is strong on her suspicion of Wilwa. I still find it odd that Wilwa didn't mention this or comment on it at all.


Day 2

Post 1- Lists people mentioned by SPM (Morsul, Nogrod, Wilwa, Pitchie, Loslote, Craydon, Inzil, Larien and Nerwen), says she believes Pitch and isn't as wary as Loslote, will seriously look over the post of SPM and the people he mentioned in seriousness.

She says what basically others said in the beginning of the day.

Post 2- Review of Inzil: doesn't seem good or bad either way, Review of Lari: slightly more suspicious than Inzil, but not by much.

She didn't vote. Based on her posts, I think she probably would have voted for Lari or Inzil, but we really have no way of knowing. And I think the wolves were counting on that. She seems to have dropped her suspicion of Wilwa altogether on Day 2, but again, we can't know what she would have done had she survived and been around. Did Wilwa ignore this on purpose, or was it an oversight?

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I know it's a risk, but I really think it would help us. We should be able to either lynch a wolf or be led to one within the next Day, leaving us only one wolf to deal with. I didn't expect this to be greeted with wild support, but I think we should deprive the wolves of this tool to confuse us.

It only confuses us as long as we keep discussing it. If we focus on catching the wolf in hiding, we won't be confused by the whole thing. Pitch can use her dream however she wants, including finding out the truth behind Hakon and Wilwa, or finding the other hidden wolf. But only if she's alive. Which she won't be if we bumble and kill the ranger. What if, God forbid, the last wolf is a submarine like last game? We may not figure it out until it's too late.

Edit: crossed with Legate

[Hakon]

Let me start off by saying I am the real ranger. So far the person to really strike me as suspicious is Lostole. I think SPM knew no one would vote for her on day one that is why he did it. It makes her seem innocent and it gets her out of being suspected as a wolf. Lostole backs up Wilwa almost 100 percent in this Hakon is a wolf thing.

++Wilwa

Pitchwife if neither myself nor Wilwa is lynched today then you are to pick either her or me to dream about. It does not matter which one but you must pick one of us. Your time in this game is running out. You most likely have just tonight left.

[Roa_Aoife]

Hakon, we still have one wolf out in the crowd. We already know that either you or Wilwa is the wolf. Can you help find the one among the 10 people out here we have no idea about? That would be so much more useful.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Hakon

Pitchwife if neither myself nor Wilwa is lynched today then you are to pick either her or me to dream about. It does not matter which one but you must pick one of us. Your time in this game is running out. You most likely have just tonight left.

Just pointing out: if you're the real Priest and truly protected me last Night, like you said you would, I most likely will be dead toMorrow and unable to tell my dream - unless the wolves go on risking to be dreamed for the sake of creating confusion. I'm curious how long they're willing to keep this up.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Time is not on our side here. There are still two wolves left, and every Day we let this issue continue to be a thorn in our side plays into the hands of the wolves. I think voting for one of the two could tell us much.

Originally Posted by Hakon

Pitchwife if neither myself nor Wilwa is lynched today then you are to pick either her or me to dream about. It does not matter which one but you must pick one of us. Your time in this game is running out. You most likely have just tonight left.

Stop it both of you. Time is maybe not on our side in general, but the situation really isn't as dire yet. Look at the player list, there is 13 or us or something. Plenty time. Plenty time. Give it a rest at least for a Day or two. Most of all, because if we lynch the Ranger, we definitely lose the Seer. Repeat: if we lynch the Ranger, we definitely lose the Seer. I hope I do not have to repeat it for more times.

By the way, it is useful to know about Nog. Good, Pitch. (The more I urge you, Nog, to try to use clear thinking and not to fall into some "known innocent syndromme" of going blindly after anyone. We need your help as a known innocent, as unclouded as possible.)

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

The more I urge you, Nog, to try to use clear thinking and not to fall into some "known innocent syndromme" of going blindly after anyone. We need your help as a known innocent, as unclouded as possible.

Heh...

Okay. I try to stay focused, but you know, when one knows his days are counted one wishes to voice every little thing he finds so as to enable others to pick on them if the main suspicions turned out wrong after one is gone himself...

But I will try to prioritise things toDay. I'll try...


Well Pitchie, picking up a nick with the word "wife" in it might be a minor factor for those confusions to arise...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Pitchie

Sorry for signing your death warrant, Nog - but if the wolves decide first to go for the gifted after all, that should give you another Day or two, and if they kill you first, they have to take the risk that I'll expose another of them.

No problem there Pitchie. It was a good idea to reveal your knowledge. As it happens I have some time in my hands toDay and as a known innocent (so far as you will be trusted) I can try to be as open as possible as I don't have to be afraid of my own neck toDay. And that is good.

Also it will be interesting to see what the wolves will decide the next Night...


Seeing the last posts, well you Roa took the words out of my desktop... a dream on either wilwa or Hakon is basically a dream wasted. If we just remember to take care of that duo in time that is.

But that time is not toDay as the next Night will still be crucial: the real ranger may have a chance to protect the seer. So let's not risk lynching the ranger to give the wolves free rein on the coming Night.

Sorry wilwa / Hakon if this sounds rude... but in the end we're fairly certain one of you is a wolf and from the village standpoint we need to lynch the wolf. So the real ranger will face the danger of being lynched but we shouldn't waste the dream on you as it is 50-50. With everyone else the odds are a lot weaker.

So Inzil also, let's not be hasty.


Okay. I'll go back into the thread to make some basic-research.

If there is any issue you people would like to hear a good-willed thoughts on let me know. But for the first thing I'm going to scroll through the thread, check the votings (times and reasons) + look a bit on Inzil (eyeing what Hakon and wilwa have said on him & spm as well).

It may take some time knowing my slow speed in doing this kinds of things, but I will refresh this page as well every now and then to see what goes on.


EDIT: X'd with a host of posts...