Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXVIII: A Full Moon Over Innsmouth

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Two votes for Brinn. First from Lottie, whom I have the most doubts about at the moment, second from wilwa, who is a wolf if she isn't the Priest. Is it just me, or does anybody else think this could be two wolves trying to start a bandwagon?

It could be, yes. I'd like to hear from Lottie. If her vote for Brinn was really only based on her own analysis of Brinn's post– in which she made a number of serious and obvious misrepresentations– than it's a pretty suspicious vote. And her other posts have been a whole lot of nothing... it could be either newbieishness or newbiewolfishness.

Mind you, Brinn has been under the radar, as usual, and she can be one sneaky wolf. However, while Wilwa might have cause to be paranoid about her, I doubt Lottie knows her reputation.

But here's a thing to consider: would the false Ranger (whichever it is) have revealed at all, knowing that if he or she got lynched, the remaining wolf would be a newbie who had only played one game before?

EDIT:X'd with Inziladun.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But here's a thing to consider: would the false Ranger (whichever it is) have revealed at all, knowing that if he or she got lynched, the remaining wolf would be a newbie who had only played one game before?

Well, Hakon to me is completely unpredictable, so who knows what he would do?
I would think a Wolfwa probably wouldn't have though.

[Nogrod]

Sorry... I've spent my day filing my papers and planning the courses and immersed in it so totally I actually forgot the DL is within an hour...

Well, I'll catch up with the latest (I popped in to read some of the posts at noon) and try to make my best then. The Roalysis may not be forthcoming toDay but I might have a chance for it toMorrow... what the wolves decide that is. (and we'd really need a Legatelysis as well... )

*delves into to the thread*

[Nogrod]

Sorry, but I'm going to send them as I read... So no structure but just points I notice while I go over the posts...

Originally Posted by Roa on Nerwen

I really, really don't like the way she built up the suspicion of Nienna through out the Day, only to drop it at the last second and vote for someone who had NO chance of getting lynched.

That is a good point even if I still think her choice was not a deliberate one having "NO chance of getting lynched". Of the late voters yesterDay I think her vote was the only one that had even a slight chance of producing a result other than me or Nienna (Morsul had one vote already and his lynching had been discussed as a possible way out of a tricky situation - and Nerwen had voiced that alfeady earlier if my memory serves me right). So the question becomes "how strongly Nerwen was for lynching Nienna before the last moments; was she just asking her questions or was she suspecting her enough to lynch her?

Originally Posted by Inzil

That bit from Hakon earlier: I would say the slip(?) of saying opposite things in the same post makes him look highly suspicious, but his being a wolf almost seems too easy.

I could agree with you here - unless there was a real chance you were the last wolf with Hakon - and that would be like quite understandable comment you could make then...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Roa on Brinn's late vote for Inzil

Nogrod finds her vote suspicious, but I get the feeling it's because she didn't vote in a manner to save him or Nienna, and with out the knowledge we have now, I don't see why she should.

I see it as a question of "washing one's hands" from the immediate choice - oftentimes wolvish behaviour as they don't want to be caught fresh from lynching innocents... so a safe-vote and not taking interest of which one of us dies: being happy with as a wolf or too unsure as innocent? I can see both options to be real.

Nerwen makes some sense in refuting some of Roa's analysis as I think Roa did exaggerate with the "case". But that's a tough one to call. I don't think Nerwen ever "downright denied" having suspected Nienna so the question still is over how serious she were and what were her motives in the change of target...

Brinn's more heated defence over Loslote's analysis looks quite credible indeed. Or then it's just the wolf-nerves...


Why are you voting for Hakon, Lari???

[Pitchwife]

I think toMorrow will be time to start sorting out our Priest claimants. Based on what they've said about their protections up to now, and assuming they told the truth:

• I'm killed -> Hakon is the Priest (he said he'd protect me last Night), wilwa is a wolf;
• I'm saved -> Hakon is a wolf, wilwa is the Priest (she said she couldn't protect me last Night, but would toNight);
• I'm left alone -> wolves deserve what's coming to them.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Is it just me, or does anybody else think this could be two wolves trying to start a bandwagon?

Well, I am not sure if it will be wise for the two remaning WWs to both vote for the same person in the way that they will start a bandwagon. But anything is possible, of course.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

First off, I don't see any cause to disbelieve your reveal, though I find your reasoning a bit flawed. You defend your 'submarine' tendencies (making good points while doing so) but then feel you must reveal as a gifted to further justify them? You state your main rationale for suspecting me is that I don't say much in my posts, but then you say many of our posts are 'without meaning and not very thought out'. So why single me out? I'll give you points for consistency, at least, since this is the second time you've voted for me.

Hmm, once again I was wondering here, on first reading once again disliking Inzil's way of "suspecting" people, but then again, on second thought, it is really like an innocent asking questions. I am really starting to feel a lot better about him.

I found the interchange between Roa and Nerwen interesting. I don't know Roa that well, but I did find her zeal a bit disconcerting, though she made some good points. She seems to put a lot of stock into reading into Nerwen's 'implications', though, and implications are a pretty subjective thing to try and glean.

Roa indeed is like that often when innocent. The zeal is disconcerting, that is true, but it is not a sign of wolvery. It's a problem of a different sort.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

It could be, yes. I'd like to hear from Lottie. If her vote for Brinn was really only based on her own analysis of Brinn's post– in which she made a number of serious and obvious misrepresentations– than it's a pretty suspicious vote. And her other posts have been a whole lot of nothing... it could be either newbieishness or newbiewolfishness.

Hm, well, I am wondering about Loslote, starting to doubt her a bit more, true. But not sure if I would be voting her, not yet, maybe, like I said before.

Mind you, Brinn has been under the radar, as usual, and she can be one sneaky wolf. However, while Wilwa might have cause to be paranoid about her, I doubt Lottie knows her reputation.

That would be interesting to know, what Lottie thinks of her in general... I mean, as about a player in general... Though of course now she could say whatever she thinks.

But here's a thing to consider: would the false Ranger (whichever it is) have revealed at all, knowing that if he or she got lynched, the remaining wolf would be a newbie who had only played one game before?

I guess it is possible, as well as anything. Of course maybe not the most clever, but even a newbie could slip by, and I know many times the WWs not planned, but were forced to do it so - because simply all the "veteran" Wolves were caught earlier - and the newbie, because of being relatively a newbie, managed to slip through all the game, or through a large part of it. And we have even heard about several examples above.

I did not get the chance, alas, to properly re-read neither Nerwen's or Lari's posts. Not sure what to do. If Loslote is going to be lynched, I would not oppose it, probably, as I think there is a distinct chance that she could be the Wolf, but I am not going to vote her, most likely. Okay, I will really try to reread something and then see.

EDIT: x-ed with Lari and onwards

[Nogrod]

Okay, I finally made it.

Roa looks a bit over the top and I wouldn't lynch Nerwen toDay based on that. That doesn't mean I think Nerwen has to be innocent though.

I might echo Legate in not being against lynching Loslote as her posting looks so hard to follow at times. She could distract us more than help if we have to think about it all the time whether she's just not able to read what others say or is intentionally twisting things to make her arguments... And she coulsd well be the wolf as well as any other. (heh, nice to be a known innocent to finally be able to say this kind of a thing which would have gotten me lynched in another situation... )

And some of her posts sure look suspicious... like the posts of many others...

[Inziladun]

Right, then.

++ Loslote

My best guess at this point.

x'd with Brinn and Nog

[Brinniel]

Pitchwife, if you are killed, I will not assume one way or another about the rangers. Because the real ranger could've easily bluffed at some point. wilwa said she protected you the Night before, but she might've said that so the wolves would try to kill you the next Night only to be protected. And in the same way, just because Hakon said he'd protect you last Night doesn't mean he did. If he thought the wolves wouldn't risk it, he could've made a bluff and protected someone else. Really there's no way to know who the real ranger is until one is dead.

[Pitchwife]

DL approaching... might as well get this over with.
++Loslote
Not for any seerish reasons, obviously, and it may be tunnel vision on my part, but she's still the one I feel most uncomfortable about, mostly because of her votes based on clear misrepresentations in the cases of Nog and Brinn.

(x-ed w/ Nerwen #391 etc.)

[Nogrod]

And we should probably solve the "ranger mystery" toMorrow...

I don't want to see Roa, Legate, Brinn or Nerwen lynched toDay as they can make sense - and be caught form their words.

Also we should not touch Hakon, wilwa or Morsul

Leaving Pitchie out as well... and Crayon, I'd have:

Loslote
Inzil
Lari

To choose from.

Inzil is the hard one as there are things both ways with him.

There's the Lari - wilwa connection I spotted on Day1 and have not totally forgotten. Also Lari's vote toDay was odd indeed (whatever that might then mean).

With Loslote I'm just mostly worried. She might be a distracted innocent to be sure but it is very hard to get a read on her odd analysis / reasonings - which feel malicious at worst.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But here's a thing to consider: would the false Ranger (whichever it is) have revealed at all, knowing that if he or she got lynched, the remaining wolf would be a newbie who had only played one game before?

If it's Hakon, who knows? If it's wilwa, probably rather not - so good point.
On the other hand, I remember Nessa Wolfrunya being the last surviving wolf in her second game or so and almost making it, so there've been precedents.

(x-ed w/ Zil)

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

If it's Hakon, who knows? If it's wilwa, probably rather not - so good point.
On the other hand, I remember Nessa Wolfrunya being the last surviving wolf in her second game or so and almost making it, so there've been precedents.

And Zil here was the the last surviving wolf in his first game, and he did make it.

That's not the point. I don't think the wolves in either of those games took a drastic step that was almost calculated to leave the newbie as the last survivor. It just turned out that way.

EDIT:X'd with Nogrod.

[Nerwen]

(Still responding to Pitchwife)

However, that's also a good point, in that they might have thought, "Well, it's worked before..."

[Lariren Shadow]

I don't have much time because I have to run off to teach religious school but why would Crayon reveal? Revealing as the Changed/Hunter is not something that they really want to broadcast, at least I didn't when I was the Hunter. Especially in this game where I think, if I read correctly, the Changed takes someone with them no matter what their role is. It becomes a boon for the wolves because they get to kill two innocents instead of one if they are going to play the risky game of "maybe he's not hunting one of us".

So Legate's suspicion of me comes from my commenting on SPM's post on Day 1? With a whole long list that kind of indicates a huge plan between us? I don't like this(and not just because its me). It seems like this is grasping at straws. I was just looking for something suspicious on Day 1, see if the wolves slipped, and well I guess SPM did. I think a Legate analysis is in order for toMorrow.

Brinn's response to Lottie(is that ok for a nickname?) seems rather innocent to me. She just got feed up with the bad claims and wanted to make it right. I don't see that as really guilty, especially with the tone she uses.

Roa's attack of Nerwen doesn't look that odd to me, but Nerwen's defense is rather more defensive at times. I can't tell if this is just a fed up innocent, like Brinn, or a worried wolf.

And what of our Rangers? I still really don't like Hakon, I don't like how he makes bold statements then reasons them away without changing them. Why state that Morsul is a wolf in the first sentence only to change it your opinion by the end? I'm beginning to think this is a wolf trying to somehow protect his Agent or a wolf protecting his packmate. Either way I think Hakon is the liar.

So, before I run off,

++Hakon

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

I don't have much time because I have to run off to teach religious school but why would Crayon reveal? Revealing as the Changed/Hunter is not something that they really want to broadcast, at least I didn't when I was the Hunter. Especially in this game where I think, if I read correctly, the Changed takes someone with them no matter what their role is. It becomes a boon for the wolves because they get to kill two innocents instead of one if they are going to play the risky game of "maybe he's not hunting one of us".

I don't know why Crayon choose to reveal when he did either– but it would be a very risky move for a wolf (especially in the current situation).

A wolf who reveals as the Hunter also reveals to the Hunter, if you see what I mean. Then there's no "maybe" about who the Hunter targets.

Crayon says he's only played the card game before, but I imagine that aspect would be the same.

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

Roa's attack of Nerwen doesn't look that odd to me, but Nerwen's defense is rather more defensive at times. I can't tell if this is just a fed up innocent, like Brinn, or a worried wolf.

Just fed up.

So, how do you know Brinn is innocent, hmmn?

EDIT:X'd since Lari.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

I don't have much time because I have to run off to teach religious school but why would Crayon reveal?

Because if somebody counter-claimed, we would catch the last Wolf, and this way, we know one more innocent and won't lynch him. Are you genuinely confused or are you just trying to make us doubt him? It bothers me, things like this, but I would find it weird if a Wolf was doing this, because it cannot help him - I mean, if there is no counter-claim, then we know we can trust Crayon. Though a Wolf who is not thinking that far (just as well as innocent who is not thinking that far to recognise what good sides it could have for Crayon to reveal) could still say that.

So Legate's suspicion of me comes from my commenting on SPM's post on Day 1? With a whole long list that kind of indicates a huge plan between us? I don't like this(and not just because its me). It seems like this is grasping at straws.

Not ONLY from that, of course. Quite the contrary, that was the thing that originally made me think you are innocent, and later I started to wonder if it can be also the other way around. I was slightly disconcerted by your posting and behavior overall and watching you. This is only the last, as you say, straw.

Okay, it would really help me to make a better picture of Lari if I knew how much she actually is really around and has time to properly absorb what's happening on the thread and how much is intentional misinterpretation of stuff (that goes for both of the above quotes, for example). I sort of don't like her approach to the disputes of Brinn or Roa etc., as it looks somehow too "balanced", like, this reserved attitude a Wolf could have to strike to one of the parties, if need be.
Also, her vote for Hakon is undeniably "safe". Let us remember that we have seemingly a last Wolf somewhere in the field and the RangerWolf. It is far too easy to cast a vote for one of the Rangers and not worry about anything else. (That's also what Hakon did.) Though then again, would a Wolf do such a thing? Isn't it too much obviously sticking out of the crowd by giving an obvious throwaway vote?

Not much time. I guess I cannot reread like I wanted. I may vote Lari. But let's see if, or more likely what, did I crosspost with...

EDIT: of course x-ed since my last. Okay, let's see.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

So, how do you know Brinn is innocent, hmmn?

Interesting note, of course could be just bad wording, but could be a nice slip. Could as well give it a try to lynch Lari, really, also with this. Though it looks like Loslote is going for the gallows now.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Also, I'm thinking Morsul is most likely the agent, not just for his actions yesterDay, but because he hasn't shown up toDay which indicates maybe he's given up and I have trouble seeing a wolf do that. Though I don't like how some are ruling out any possibility of lynching him in the future, because in the off-chance he is actually a wolf, I'd hate to let the wolves win in that way because we made an assumption.

I agree with that it seems to show that he is more likely the Agent. Of course it would be bad if he was a Wolf, but one bright side is, if Morsul does not appear at all, he will be eventually modfired.

EDIT: x-ed since my last. Btw can anybody give a vote count anyway?

[Brinniel]

Hmm...another reveal. You know, one of the points about being gifted is to stay hidden. If Hakon is the true ranger, that means all three of our gifteds revealed unprompted, which is a bit insane. Anyway, I'll believe Cray so long as there is no counter-reveal, and I doubt there will be.

I'm hoping that Legate is in fact innocent, as nothing he's said so far sounds the slightest bit suspicious to me. He seems genuine so far, so for now I'll say he's innocentish, though I won't go as far as to trust him or anyone for that matter unless they're known innocents.

As for our two rangers, I'm really stuck in between as to which one is the real one since both have done some suspicious stuff. Again I'm leaving them both alone hoping it'll sort itself out. But if it doesn't soon, we may just have to do something about it. Also, I'm thinking Morsul is most likely the agent, not just for his actions yesterDay, but because he hasn't shown up toDay which indicates maybe he's given up and I have trouble seeing a wolf do that. Though I don't like how some are ruling out any possibility of lynching him in the future, because in the off-chance he is actually a wolf, I'd hate to let the wolves win in that way because we made an assumption.

Inzil isn't off my suspect list, though I'm still uncertain about him. However toDay he seems to be fairly neutral on some issues, or at least he has been in his recent posts. Not completely taking one side or the other is an easy move for a wolf...though of course it's not unknown for innocents to do that too.

But right now I'm more concerned about Loslote, whose analysis I still can't shake off. I just have trouble seeing how any honest player could come up with such a skewed analysis. It makes me very concerned about her. The only reason I'm slightly hesitant is because of Spm's case and vote against her on Day One. Though it would be a mistake to completely eliminate her as a possible wolf for that reason since a wolf-on-wolf vote on Day One is certainly not unheard of. I wish I could hear from her again toDay, but unfortunately that won't be happening since she'll still be asleep at deadline.

EDIT: x-ed with several posts