Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXVIII: A Full Moon Over Innsmouth

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

No, Roa, I said I didn't strongly suspect her– not enough to vote her when it came down to it, anyway. That's all.

I did not claim in my last post that I never suspected her, and in saying that I did ("outright denying that you ever suspected her") you are seriously distorting what I did say.

By saying that you never said you were going to vote for her you imply that you had no intention of doing so. You most certainly did, right up until she was about to get lynched. And not strongly? Aside from a very mild "Oh yes, suppose Nog and Inzil look kind of suspicious too" and a brief "wilwa makes me uneasy" she was the only person you brought points against, or considered suspicious in anyway. Not strongly compared to others, but your strongest suspicion by far.

[Roa_Aoife]

It occurs to me that we currently have 4 knowns now (assuming we all believe Crayon, which I do, as I don't think two wolves would false reveal- it's suicidal). Plus two people with a 50/50 of being a wolf. (Whether we get a wolf toDay or not, we should definitely start looking at those two toMorrow, as the numbers game will begin to shift away from our favor.)

Those are really good odds for us. I feel rather optimistic now.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

It occurs to me that we currently have 4 knowns now (assuming we all believe Crayon, which I do, as I don't think two wolves would false reveal- it's suicidal).

Also, the Hunter's perhaps not the wisest role to impersonate.

EDIT:X'd with Legate.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

By saying that you never said you were going to vote for her you imply that you had no intention of doing so. You most certainly did, right up until she was about to get lynched.

Sure, I thought about it. Then I decided she wasn't suspicious enough to lynch– as I've already mentioned, I also got alarmed by the way everyone was jumping in to vote her, particularly when one of those people had a 50% chance of being a wolf.

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

And not strongly? Aside from a very mild "Oh yes, suppose Nog and Inzil look kind of suspicious too" and a brief "wilwa makes me uneasy" she was the only person you brought points against, or considered suspicious in anyway. Not strongly compared to others, but your strongest suspicion by far.

Yes, she was my "strongest" suspicion, for what that's worth. In the end I decided that still wasn't strong enough to merit voting her, and that in the absence of a better candidate, it might be worth making sure Morsul was, in fact, the Agent.

EDIT:X'd with Roa.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Sure, I thought about it. Then I decided she wasn't suspicious enough to lynch– as I've already mentioned, I also got alarmed by the way everyone was jumping in to vote her, particularly when one of those people had a 50% chance of being a wolf.

Yes, she was my "strongest" suspicion, for what that's worth. In the end I decided that still wasn't strong enough to merit voting her, and that in the absence of a better candidate, it might be worth making sure Morsul was, in fact, the Agent.

EDIT:X'd with Roa.

If you truly believed that Morsul could be a wolf, then Wilwa only had a 1/3 chance of being a wolf.

As it is, you failed to explain this then, and now you're only coming up with it as you're being questioned. Your initial reaction was to say that never considered voting Nienna, then when presented with direct evidence to the contrary you admit it. You should have just admitted it from the start.

Edit: crossed

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

If you truly believed that Morsul could be a wolf, then Wilwa only had a 1/3 chance of being a wolf.

Whatever. Even by my standards, that's nitpicking.

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

As it is, you failed to explain this then, and now you're only coming up with it as you're being questioned.

No, I said it earlier, too.

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Your initial reaction was to say that never considered voting Nienna

*sigh*

Roa, for the last time, I did not say that. You keep saying I said it, but I didn't. She was one of the people I considered voting, but I did not, as you put it "change my mind" because I had never made it up in the first place.

This is getting frustrating.

EDIT:X'd with Pitchwife.

[Roa_Aoife]

I have to leave for church. I'm not buying Nerwen's defense. I think she's frustrated because she's a wolf and can't talk her way out of it.

++Nerwen

In your very first post you said that you never said you were going to vote for Nienna. That statement implies that you were never considering it, which is a clear lie. Your posts at the end of Day 2, when you said you were discounting Nienna and were no longer sure of who to vote for make it clear that she was your top candidate. By your own admission, you changed your mind because she was going to get lynched. So try to wiggle all you can, your own words have trapped you.

[Nerwen]

Fine, vote me then.

I hope anyone who is being swayed by Roa will actually check out my post (#351) where I supposedly told all these "lies", and note that I didn't.

I honestly don't understand where Roa's coming from. She seems to believe that once you raise enough points against another player, you are then committed to voting that person.

EDIT:X'd with Legate.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I honestly don't understand where Roa's coming from. She seems to believe that once you raise enough points against another player, you are then committed to voting that person.

That is indeed what I think she is "thinking", sort of. Or something along these lines. However, well, like I said.

Anyway, let's see what now.

EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen. Yup.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Craydon1

So the person I'm currently the most focused on is probably Inzil. It would seem to me that he pops up to give mostly empty post that are worded in a manner that comes off as supportive, but not. I really can't tell who he actually supports and who he's truly going after and that sort of person is going to either be 1) a wolf or 2) soon to be eaten by a wolf.

Now I know this is my only post today, and by most of your standards I'm not active enough, but frankly I find a lot of everyone's post without meaning and not very thought out. As for the analysis, they seem to be very redundant. If you agree with the previous novel long post, just say "ditto" and move on. Maybe make a few changes when you disagree with something. Keep in mind this is just my opinion, and while this is the first time playing with you good folks (and don't get me wrong, this is fun) I've played the card game for years. I guess I just follow
the philosophy of just saying something when it is a honest contribution. So before you guys start saying this makes me look somehow wolfish, you should know that....tada, I'm the Changed. Which is also why I've been silent among the priest cluster.

First off, I don't see any cause to disbelieve your reveal, though I find your reasoning a bit flawed. You defend your 'submarine' tendencies (making good points while doing so) but then feel you must reveal as a gifted to further justify them? You state your main rationale for suspecting me is that I don't say much in my posts, but then you say many of our posts are 'without meaning and not very thought out'. So why single me out? I'll give you points for consistency, at least, since this is the second time you've voted for me.

I found the interchange between Roa and Nerwen interesting. I don't know Roa that well, but I did find her zeal a bit disconcerting, though she made some good points. She seems to put a lot of stock into reading into Nerwen's 'implications', though, and implications are a pretty subjective thing to try and glean.
Of the two of them, it's hard to say who I trust more. I might lean toward Nerwen somewhat at the moment.

My early feeling about Legate has pretty much dissipated, and now I don't have a read on him one way or the other. I'll have to pay more attantion to him, though.

Brinn's defense against Loslote could go either way: as a wolf's overly defensive reaction, or an innocent's honest frustration. I don't think I'll vote for her toDay, but she will bear some watching.

Which leads me back to Loslote. Her analysis of Brinn didn't help her in my eyes. It did appear that she took a lot of Brinn's words and turned them a bit, and she keeps saying Brinn finds everyone 'paranoid', when I at least thought that first post of Brinn's plainly tongue-in-cheek.

That said, Loslote is probably my vote today.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

That whole thing really bugs me. I mean it's not completely unlikely that an ordo would reveal in order to protect a gifted, but Morsul doesn't do it in a way that could really be useful, and for a new player to try something like that as an ord, that seems unlikely. Maybe if it was someone who's played alot and could pull it off better, but I don't think that's the case here and I really don't see how Brinn could find that possible.

I know this is flimsy, and trust me that's driving me nuts, but I don't have anything concrete on anyone and this just stuck out to me. If I manage to still be alive tomorrow and Brinn is too I'll look more closely at her but for now I really just have to vote and this is all that stood out for me. Sorry.

++Brinn

Really have to run now, big rush. Good luck!!

Okay, I really don't think this would be a wise way of voting, like I said, and what Brinn said does not seem to me as a case good enough for suspicion, but then, the way wilwa posts her vote ("I know that it's flimsy"), and seemingly in rush, it is explainable, so I am not necessarily adding that to the pile of things for which I would find her suspicious. Of course I hope it isn't just a cover-up for a vote, but then, somehow the concern looks genuine to me.

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Those are really good odds for us. I feel rather optimistic now.

Well, me too. Let's just not get too much at ease, though I think we don't need to be afraid of that now. I just hope you are not the Wolf. But, speaking of that, concerning that Roa-Nerwen exchange now, hard to say, but: Roa, it seems to me that you are slightly becoming your "over-the-top" self, a bit like what you did for example with suspecting me during the last game. I know that it can happen to you and I can see where your points are coming from, but maybe just try to calm down and try to look at everything with a sober eye. Because even an innocent can have slightly inconsistent posts, in some ways, as nobody can write down completely all the thoughts that fly through his head. However, that is a reason for me to think you innocent. Because it looks like this kind of innocent zeal. Anyway, what I said has nothing to do with my views of Nerwen's posts (that is, I am not saying that Roa may not be right, even though she is a bit zealous here).

EDIT: x-ed witch Pitchwife of Dunwich <= haha, a typo, I am leaving it there - and further on

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, basically, of all the people, whom I could vote for toDay, after eliminating those I have eliminated in my earlier posts toDay, it's either Lari or Nerwen for me to vote toDay. That sounds quite good, to choose just from two people. Let's see if I have time to check the posts of both of them.

I can also check the votes this far, for that matter. If I have time now, let's see.

EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

However, that is a reason for me to think you innocent. Because it looks like this kind of innocent zeal.

I agree. I think she's unlikely to be a wolf, which is what's really annoying about this.

EDIT:X'd with Legate.

[Nerwen]

By the way, Roa, since you have made direct statements about what I said which are demonstrably false, I should say that if either of us is "lying", it's you.

Anyway– leaving aside the gifted claimants and the known innocent, we have (from my point of view):

Inziladun
Loslote
Roa
Legate
Lairen Shadow
Brinn

So it's either Wolflote stumbling through her cubhood, or it's Roa Awolfe getting over confident, or it's Inzilawolf being a little too slick for his own good, or it's somebody else very sneaky indeed.

I keep thinking that the "why didn't they kill the Seer?" business ought to shed some light on this... as I said, the wolves really should have tried for the Seer last Night; why didn't they?

EDIT:X'd with Legate.

[Pitchwife]

Hi, I'm back. Brinn's first post toDay sounds genuine to me (and being a slow and over-polishing writer myself, I sympathize with her cross-posting problems). Cray's as well, though I don't think his reveal was the brightest thing to do. I mean, in the improbable case that the wolves would go for another no-trail-kill rather than get rid of me toNight, wouldn't it have been very convenient for us if they'd hit the Hunter and he'd taken one of them down with him? That's not very likely to happen now. On the good side, we can treat him as probably innocent for now (unless there's yet another counter-reveal), which narrows down the number of suspects.