TIG LXIX: Meeting at the House of Usher

[The Saucepan Man]

Thoughts on the votes:

Four Wolves. If I was them, I would try to spread the votes, particularly given that it looked from a reasonably early stage in the voting (roughly the time of Hakon’s vote) like Morsul would most likely be lynched.

Morsul voters – If I am right about spreading the votes, I would guess that there is no more than one Wolf here, if that. Two Morsul voters are dead, leaving me, Loslote and Fea. Fea’s vote was unreasoned, although Morsul was one of the few that she expressed suspicion of earlier in the Day. Also, I am doubtful whether a Wolf would want to be ‘sealing the deal’, as it were, on the lynching of an innocent Morsul. To my mind, therefore, if there was a Wolf in the Morsul bandwagon, it more likely to have been Loslote. As I think has already be noted, her vote does look to have been rather opportunistic. That said, it is quite possible that the Wolves avoided this bandwagon altogether.

Hakon voters – Lari and sally – It’s unlikely that they are both Wolves, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if one of them is. Hakon did rather give people an excuse to vote for him with all his Meta-reasoning stuff, and I wouldn’t put it past a Wolf to take advantage of this. A Wolf wouldn’t necessarily want to get caught in the lynching of the Seer, but it seems unlikely that the Wolves spotted him, or he would have had the pleasure of two visits last Night.

Greenie for Nogrod – Given his accusation of her, based on what I thought to be rather weak evidence, I can see why she might vote for him. That said, she does not appear to have looked very closely at many others and she may have used this thing about her frequently voting for him as cover to place an ‘easy’ vote.

Pitchwife for Boro – Given what we know now, it looks good. However, as I pointed out yesterDay, it was based on very little evidence indeed and rather came out of nowhere. Perhaps a PitchWolf had spotted the Bear and was signalling to his packmates. Not at all sure about this one.

Roa for me – Not a surprise, given our interaction yesterDay. And, as mentioned previously, this doesn’t look much like a Wolfish vote to me.

Nogrod for McCaber – Now, I know that Nogrod dislikes the quiet types. But this does rather give him an excuse to place what looks to me to be an incredibly safe vote. There was little prospect of McCaber being lynched so he was the ideal candidate for a Wolf who had to vote relatively early and didn’t want to be caught in a bandwagon. And the reasoning was poor – ‘buddying up’, based only on McCaber’s comment that Nogrod was making sense. You really need to take those anti-exagerration pills, Noggie.

Inzil for Pitchwife – Again, a rather safe vote, given that there was little prospect of Pitch being lynched at the time that it was placed. But the reasoning was sound (for a Day 1 vote). Pitch’s vote for Boro did look strange at the time.

Brinn for Loslote- I can’t fault the reasoning. Loslote’s vote did look opportunistic. But, once again, relatively safe and could even be a Wolf-on-Wolf. The prospect of Loslote being lynched was minimal and so it would have been a good opportunity for a Wolfish Brinn to vote for a Wolfish Loslote.

Non-voters – Wilwa and McCaber explained, I think, that they might not have the opportunity to vote. I am not sure that Nerwen has explained her non-vote. I don’t like non-voters, because I find people’s votes to be some of the most useful items of evidence that we have. That said, it would be quite dangerous for a Wolf deliberately not to vote on Day 1, given that a second consecutive non-vote will, I think, trigger elimination by modfire.

In summary, to my mind the most Wolfish votes are those of Loslote, Nogrod and one of the Hakon votes. Possible Wolfish votes – Fea, Inzil and Brinn. Not sure about Greenie, Pitch and the non-voters, and Roa’s vote looks to me the least Wolfish.

Note – this is based purely on votes.

[Brinniel]

We keep shooting Hakon down, but in the last three games he has now hunted a wolf, protected the seer, and dreamt a werebear. He must be doing something right. I don't think we can really put it against him if he dreamt Boro for meta-reasons. The roles here may be completely random, but on Night 1 there is absolutely nothing within the game to go off of since no one's posted yet. So the only thing a seer can do is guess or choose based off experiences from past games. His ultimate mistake was bringing that meta-reasoning into Day One, which he shouldn't have...but hopefully he's learned his lesson. I was rather surprised to discover Hakon was the seer, though seeing his posts it does add up. The reasons why he was killed seem fairly obvious now knowing who the werebear was. Hakon would've been fairly lynchable toDay, but that would've meant him revealing which would expose Boro if he had indeed dreamt of him.

From yesterDay's voting, I still suspect Loslote for being opportunistic and am still wary of Nogrod since his vote seemed to come out of thin air. I'm also not happy with Lari and Sally's votes because while Hakon was annoying everyone, I don't think it's a valid reason to vote him. Because irritating and not following the rules does not necessarily equal wolf. And anyway, if he continued to pull this crap if he were still alive, he would've been modfired.

Of course, there's much more to look at than just the voting but I'm at work now and don't really have time to thoroughly look at everyone, so it'll have to wait for later. Don't expect a whole lot from me toDay since it's another long day and I'm still lacking sleep, but I'll do my best. ToMorrow will be much better since it'll be the weekend (yay).

[Roa_Aoife]

I'm here and reading. I'll probably be off and on since I have a mammoth of a paper to write, and I think I'm getting sick, but I'll do my best to be around as much as possible. I probably won't have time for analysis until later though.

[Inziladun]

Some very brief thoughts:

If a Seer wants to use meta-reasoning to aid in choosing whom to dream of, that's fine. Otherwise, it's not an advisable tactic, especially when one tries to base votes solely on it.

I don't like Loslote's vote on Morsul. Highly band-waggonish. Same with Fea, though as I think SPM said, it would have been pretty brash of a Feawolf to brag about 'sealing the deal'.

The Hakon voters ought to be heavily scrutinised as well. I think it highly likely there's at least one wolf there. Lari still looks a little worse to me than Sally.

Nog's vote for McCaber still looks odd. Yes, I know he doesn't like submarines, but I think there were better targets than McCaber. I look forward to hearing from Nog toDay.

Pitch's vote could well have been just for safety's sake. Other than his vote, I haven't seen much suspicious about him, but he's worth keeping in mind.

More as time allows.

[Roa_Aoife]

Responding as I go, so I may be repeating some others.

#179- Pitchwife: We can't know for sure that the wolves spotted Boro for the bear. We shouldn't fall into the trap of ruling out other causes of death.

#180- SPM: Having read through yesterDay with a cooler head, I am beginning to see Pitch's point. The ironic part is that I was trying to avoid getting stuck on that with Nogrod and ended up falling into it with you instead. I still think you were harsh to jump on me for an early, admittedly weak suspicion, given that's what everyone was doing at the time, though. You aren't off my radar- I'm just broadening my range of attention so I don't miss anyone else.

#182- SPM: Isn't not reading the rules properly what caused all the confusion on Day 1?

#184- Nerwen: SPM as the cobbler? It's possible, but as we saw last game, pretending to be the cobbler works for a wolf, and SPM saw that too. Still we aren't at a point yet where the cobbler is a huge concern, so cobbler spotting isn't going to help right now.

#186- SPM: I see your point about the possible wolf in the Hakon voters. I don't agree with your assessment of Loslote's vote, however. Loslote's vote, to me, looked the same as yours, and after voting, she continued to argue against Morsul. Morsul's vote almost changed my mind, and we know how amazing that is. It's not terribly surprising that someone who just arrived to find his vote highly suspicious. I would think that the people who voted after Morsul's defense, which to my mind was very reasonable, look more suspicious. And we know one baddie was involved there.

Also, I have always held to the belief that you should vote whoever you feel is that most suspicious, rather than limiting yourself to those who have a possibility of getting lynched. So I don't agree with you in that anyone who voted for someone you didn't have a high chance of getting lynched is suspicious necessarily. At least it would take more than that to convince me.

Of the Morsul voters, I think Fea looks the most suspicious. Why? Because if anything was an easy vote, it was that. And because no one would suspect a wolf of being so obvious, so she could certainly get away with it. I wouldn't put it past Fea at all to pull a move like that, and her vote was the least reasoned, aside from Boro's and Hakon's, and one of them was evil, while the other I've yet to see give a well-reasoned vote. We had a lot of material to go on yesterDay, but her reason for voting Morsul was because he made her do a probability lesson. And this vote came well after his defense.


Lastly, Inzil, you basically just gave us the cliff notes of SPM's #186.

Also, my slightly fevered brain tells me I should take a nap before I tackle the ethics surrounding the Hiroshima bombings. I'll be back later.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Of the Morsul voters, I think Fea looks the most suspicious. Why? Because if anything was an easy vote, it was that. And because no one would suspect a wolf of being so obvious, so she could certainly get away with it. I wouldn't put it past Fea at all to pull a move like that, and her vote was the least reasoned, aside from Boro's and Hakon's, and one of them was evil, while the other I've yet to see give a well-reasoned vote. We had a lot of material to go on yesterDay, but her reason for voting Morsul was because he made her do a probability lesson. And this vote came well after his defense.

You're right, in that it probably isn't wise to put anything past Fea.

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Lastly, Inzil, you basically just gave us the cliff notes of SPM's #186.

Did I? Sorry. I haven't yet read everything toDay.

[The Saucepan Man]

I have had a look through Boro’s posts – there were more than I thought!

As has been noted, he talked a lot about Bear tactics and Bear v Wolf dynamics. Probably more so than anyone else, so perhaps he was attacked because the Wolves had spotted him. If so, he only has himself to blame, as that was his advice to them. However, we cannot be sure that they did, so it is worth looking to see whether they might have had some other reason for attacking him.

At various points, he expressed suspicion to varying degrees about a fair few people. This figures, I suppose, as he would want to keep his options open. Other than Morsul, however, his main suspect appears to have been sally (#101 and #131), although he wavered to and fro on Nogrod and Greenie a bit (#131, #135 and #164) and noted right at the end that he was tempted to vote for Lari but would check her out the next Day (#166). I think that, if the Wolves did target Boro because of something that he said about one of them, then this would point towards sally, and perhaps Lari, more than anyone else. Which is interesting, given that they are the two Hakon voters, and I think one of them is quite likely a Wolf. But it’s a fairly tenuous lead, and I didn’t see much else in what he said that might have provoked the Wolves to attack him.