TIG LXIX: Meeting at the House of Usher

[Roa_Aoife]

Responding as I go, so I may be repeating some others.

#179- Pitchwife: We can't know for sure that the wolves spotted Boro for the bear. We shouldn't fall into the trap of ruling out other causes of death.

#180- SPM: Having read through yesterDay with a cooler head, I am beginning to see Pitch's point. The ironic part is that I was trying to avoid getting stuck on that with Nogrod and ended up falling into it with you instead. I still think you were harsh to jump on me for an early, admittedly weak suspicion, given that's what everyone was doing at the time, though. You aren't off my radar- I'm just broadening my range of attention so I don't miss anyone else.

#182- SPM: Isn't not reading the rules properly what caused all the confusion on Day 1?

#184- Nerwen: SPM as the cobbler? It's possible, but as we saw last game, pretending to be the cobbler works for a wolf, and SPM saw that too. Still we aren't at a point yet where the cobbler is a huge concern, so cobbler spotting isn't going to help right now.

#186- SPM: I see your point about the possible wolf in the Hakon voters. I don't agree with your assessment of Loslote's vote, however. Loslote's vote, to me, looked the same as yours, and after voting, she continued to argue against Morsul. Morsul's vote almost changed my mind, and we know how amazing that is. It's not terribly surprising that someone who just arrived to find his vote highly suspicious. I would think that the people who voted after Morsul's defense, which to my mind was very reasonable, look more suspicious. And we know one baddie was involved there.

Also, I have always held to the belief that you should vote whoever you feel is that most suspicious, rather than limiting yourself to those who have a possibility of getting lynched. So I don't agree with you in that anyone who voted for someone you didn't have a high chance of getting lynched is suspicious necessarily. At least it would take more than that to convince me.

Of the Morsul voters, I think Fea looks the most suspicious. Why? Because if anything was an easy vote, it was that. And because no one would suspect a wolf of being so obvious, so she could certainly get away with it. I wouldn't put it past Fea at all to pull a move like that, and her vote was the least reasoned, aside from Boro's and Hakon's, and one of them was evil, while the other I've yet to see give a well-reasoned vote. We had a lot of material to go on yesterDay, but her reason for voting Morsul was because he made her do a probability lesson. And this vote came well after his defense.


Lastly, Inzil, you basically just gave us the cliff notes of SPM's #186.

Also, my slightly fevered brain tells me I should take a nap before I tackle the ethics surrounding the Hiroshima bombings. I'll be back later.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Of the Morsul voters, I think Fea looks the most suspicious. Why? Because if anything was an easy vote, it was that. And because no one would suspect a wolf of being so obvious, so she could certainly get away with it. I wouldn't put it past Fea at all to pull a move like that, and her vote was the least reasoned, aside from Boro's and Hakon's, and one of them was evil, while the other I've yet to see give a well-reasoned vote. We had a lot of material to go on yesterDay, but her reason for voting Morsul was because he made her do a probability lesson. And this vote came well after his defense.

You're right, in that it probably isn't wise to put anything past Fea.

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Lastly, Inzil, you basically just gave us the cliff notes of SPM's #186.

Did I? Sorry. I haven't yet read everything toDay.

[The Saucepan Man]

I have had a look through Boro’s posts – there were more than I thought!

As has been noted, he talked a lot about Bear tactics and Bear v Wolf dynamics. Probably more so than anyone else, so perhaps he was attacked because the Wolves had spotted him. If so, he only has himself to blame, as that was his advice to them. However, we cannot be sure that they did, so it is worth looking to see whether they might have had some other reason for attacking him.

At various points, he expressed suspicion to varying degrees about a fair few people. This figures, I suppose, as he would want to keep his options open. Other than Morsul, however, his main suspect appears to have been sally (#101 and #131), although he wavered to and fro on Nogrod and Greenie a bit (#131, #135 and #164) and noted right at the end that he was tempted to vote for Lari but would check her out the next Day (#166). I think that, if the Wolves did target Boro because of something that he said about one of them, then this would point towards sally, and perhaps Lari, more than anyone else. Which is interesting, given that they are the two Hakon voters, and I think one of them is quite likely a Wolf. But it’s a fairly tenuous lead, and I didn’t see much else in what he said that might have provoked the Wolves to attack him.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Roa

You aren't off my radar- I'm just broadening my range of attention so I don't miss anyone else.

Charmed, I am sure. The feelings’ mutual.

Originally Posted by Roa

SPM: Isn't not reading the rules properly what caused all the confusion on Day 1?

Hehe. I know, I know. Hence my self-admonishment.

Originally Posted by Roa

I don't agree with your assessment of Loslote's vote, however. Loslote's vote, to me, looked the same as yours, and after voting, she continued to argue against Morsul.

I’ll have to look back at it again, but I recall thinking it rather opportunistic at the time. With the benefit of hindsight, I think that Morsul would have looked incredibly lynchable to a Wolf at that point and, if I were a Wolf, I would always prefer to find a nice comfy seat at the front of a bandwaggon, rather than an uncomfortably bumpy one right at the back. That’s the reason that I think Loslote looks the more Wolfish than Fea out of the two, but I take your point about not putting anything past Fea. As I mentioned previously, however, it is always possible that, precisely because Morsul looked lynchable, the Wolves avoided that bandwaggon altogether.

Originally Posted by Roa

Also, I have always held to the belief that you should vote whoever you feel is that most suspicious, rather than limiting yourself to those who have a possibility of getting lynched. So I don't agree with you in that anyone who voted for someone you didn't have a high chance of getting lynched is suspicious necessarily. At least it would take more than that to convince me.

I agree that this, in itself, is not enough to establish Wolfishness. But it is one of the patterns that I look for in the votes. Wolves like to hunker down in nice, warm, 'safe' votes if they can, particularly when a lynchable innocent looks to be in the firing line. I am also always wary of anything that looks that it might be a safe Wolf-on-Wolf vote.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by SpM

Eh? It wasn’t me who said that …

Oh no! Sorry! It must have been Boro, then, I noticed when I was reading that I kept mixing the two of you up...

Originally Posted by SpM

Greenie for Nogrod – Given his accusation of her, based on what I thought to be rather weak evidence, I can see why she might vote for him. That said, she does not appear to have looked very closely at many others and she may have used this thing about her frequently voting for him as cover to place an ‘easy’ vote.

More than not looking closely at others, I think it was not seeing much eyebrow-raising stuff in others.

Now a quick list before I'm off to write a French essay on preserving water. Eurgh.

Brinn - seems innocentish
Fea - Roa has a good point about her vote, I have little on her apart from that. The poems were cool, though.
Greenie - that's me.
Inzil - no read, dunno why since he's been posting quite actively. Might take a look at him toMorrow if we both are alive (I won't have the time toDay).
Lari - too little to go on
Loslote - can't say, really - I can see how her vote could appear very opportunistic, but I don't have enough data from her to say this or that.
McCaber - too little to go on
Nerwen - leaning innocent
Nog - is still the only one I have actual arguments against. I believe I have talked enough about him already, I'd love it if he appeared before I vote because I had some questions for him. I will not judge this or that before I've had those questions answered.
Pitchwife - seems innocent
Roa - seems so sensible it frightens me, if you know what I mean. She makes soooo much sense that I'm lulled into thinking "she makes sense, she can't be a wolf", when I know that making or not making sense doesn't necessarily have anything to do with being or not being a wolf. Actually, more than once, while reading, I caught myself thinking "What if Roa is a wolf?"
sally - too little to go on
Saucepan Man - leaning innocent
wilwa - too little to go on

Four of the above people are wolves. Nog? Roa? Fea? Sally, McCab, Loslote, Wilwa, Lari? Brinn (knowing my skill in reading her)? Dunno.

Heeeeeeeeeeey actually I got an idea. Nog and Roa together? I'm not sure if I remember this right but wasn't Roa suspecting Nog early on Day 1, but dropped the suspicion after a while? Convenient wolf-on-wolf? I'd love to investigate but now I have to write the stupid essay. Back when I'm finished!

[Nogrod]

I think this will be the Nth time I say this, but let me try and formulate it this way (if it would finally hammer in to some thick skulls around... ).

Nogrod's werewolf-rule for Day1

On Day1 never vote a player who actually "invests in the game", takes time and effort to actually produce ideas, reads and comments on others, builds or tries to build cases... throwing her/his neck forwards in general.

Elucidation of the rule

Those people can be read on later Days much better than those who act like submarines - and it is fair to let those people play who actually play and sink the submarines.

First amendment to the NwwrD1

If one of the people referred to in the NwwwD1 as "those who invest into the game" turns out so suspicious that there is a clear and open argument beyond any reasonable doubt that the person is a baddie, then neglect NwwrD1 and vote for the person.

Second amendment to the NwwrD1

If there is no overwhelming argument on anyone fitting the description of "those who invest into the game", then try to affect the lynching as to save those you think fit the description or who feel the most innocent.

Third amendment to the NwwrD1

If there is no overwhelming argument on anyone fitting the description of "those who invest into the game" and there is no chance to stay around at the deadline and affect the voting, then pick the most suspicious person from the low-posters / non-involveds and hope for the best.


My late dinner is ready and cooling... More thoughts soonish.

[Pitchwife]

Back and just finished reading. One little comment:

Originally Posted by SpM #186

Perhaps a PitchWolf had spotted the Bear and was signalling to his packmates.

Nice thought, but obviously Pitchwolf would have had ample time to do so at Night, so why in the open Daylight? As I said above, my vote was more of a shot in the dark that luckily hit home. I had no idea Boro was the Bear, of all furry things, though in retrospect clues weren't altogether lacking.

[Roa_Aoife]

Okay, I just woke up from my nap and now I'm catching up.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Nogrod's werewolf-rule for Day1

etc



Yes, Noggie, I fully understand and all that. But it does give you a good excuse to place a reasonably safe Day 1 vote. At the very least, you are somewhat absolving yourself of responsibility for the Day 1 lynch as it is generally pretty unlikely that your pick will end up being lynched. And I am still not sure that your reasons for picking McCaber stand up to full scrutiny.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Nice thought, but obviously Pitchwolf would have had ample time to do so at Night, so why in the open Daylight?

Well, this Pitchwolf feller might have wanted to get the Bear lynched in order to avoid the risk of him targetting a Wolf at Night. But I agree that it is not the strongest of points.

Originally Posted by Roa

Would it make you feel better if Nogrod and I had a big back and forth like the one SPM got into yesterDay?

Ooh, yes please. But can you wait while I get a big tub of popcorn ...

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

But I think both sally and Lari could do with some pressure toDay, and it would also be nice to hear some reasoned prose from Fea.

I agree, and I would particularly like to hear more from Lari and sally toDay, as I am currently leaning towards voting for one of them.

[Roa_Aoife]

Post 1- Nonsense post, presumably to tell us he wouldn't be around


Post 2- Will be around, but probably won't make it till dead-line. Says the were-bears best strategy is to kill off the wolves, says it serves the bear no benefit to work with the wolves, suggests that we set the wolves and the bear against each other.


Post 3- response to Pitch, explains again how the bear and the wolves will want to knock each other off, joins the chorus in admonishing Hakon.

(Overall, this may have been an attempt to later convince the village to let him live.)


Post 4- General analysis and response to first 55 posts:
First few posts are Junk, believes Mith started the first poster theory, finds Sauce's reserve "a-typical."

(SPM seems to have conveniently missed that when he reviewed Boromir's posts. But that's very slight.)

Slight suspicion of Inzil due to questioning about first poster theory, but it's very slight.

(Slight enough, I think, that it probably doesn't point to Inzil.)

Is most suspicious of Sally

(I think that this actually would point away from Sally, as it would be really obvious.)

Overall, thinks Sauce is innocent in the whole FW confusion

(While it's possible that a wolf SPM may have targeted Boro to point away from himself, I find this unlikely, as it seems you'd want to keep people who think you're innocent around.)

Doesn't understand the suspicion against Roa

(Thankyou. But seriously, if I draw a conclusion from this it would be silly.)

Finds Morsul the most suspicious in the FW discussion.

(Well we know how that turned out)



Post 5- response to Roa, insists the bear and the wolves are enemies


Post 6- response to Morsul: "Fair enough"


Post 7- response to Nogrod: says it's good to state the obvious


Post 8- clarification about Sally suspicion, not bothered by Pitch's vote, finds Morsul the most suspicious, bad feeling about Nogrod

(This seems to point to Nogrod, and away from Greenie. But with Greenie's insistence on lynch Nogrod, I have to wonder if it was planned that way.)

Post 9- read and comment:

Wilwa is ok.

(Pretty neutral in how this regards wilwa.)

Disagrees with Nog about Sauce being the Cobbler

(This doesn't say anything about Nog, really, though it points away from SPM. And again, that may have been the idea, but I find it unlikely.)

McCaber greyed out part of his post

(This niether points to or away from McCaber)

Changes his mind on Nog's suspicion of Greenie, now finds Greenie suspicious.

(So scratch what I said earlier. Now I wonder if Greenie and Nogrod are wolves together planning on using their usual tit-for-tat as a cover, and if one of them gets lynched, it makes the other look better.)


Post 10- Decides not to comment on Hakon since it's been commented on to death. Addresses SPM vs Roa:

Thinks SPM may be over-reacting when he accuses Roa and Nog of being agressive, Thinks SPM may not have been over-reacting to the rest- points out that it's Roa's style to push people hard

(Again, I really can't draw conclusions that anyone else would find credible here.)

Response to Nog- Doesn't think SPM was trying to buddy up to him

(Aside from disagreeing, this is a fairly neutral statement, so it doesn't point one way or the other.)


Post 11- points out Morsul's insistence on the statistical odds of SPM being a wolf.


Post 12- Explains Nogrod's vote for McCaber, but doesn't understand why he didn't vote for Greenie

(Again, this could point to either Nogrod or Greenie, and possibly both, in my opinion.)


Post 13- Considers voting Lari, but votes Morsul instead.

(This is really the only thing that points to Lari, and I'm not sure it's enough. Of the two Hakon voters, Sally seems to obvious, but that could be the idea. )

In general, I find Nogrod and Greenie the most suspicious based solely on this.


Edit: Crossed with a host