TIG LXIX: Meeting at the House of Usher

[Nogrod]

I think this will be the Nth time I say this, but let me try and formulate it this way (if it would finally hammer in to some thick skulls around... ).

Nogrod's werewolf-rule for Day1

On Day1 never vote a player who actually "invests in the game", takes time and effort to actually produce ideas, reads and comments on others, builds or tries to build cases... throwing her/his neck forwards in general.

Elucidation of the rule

Those people can be read on later Days much better than those who act like submarines - and it is fair to let those people play who actually play and sink the submarines.

First amendment to the NwwrD1

If one of the people referred to in the NwwwD1 as "those who invest into the game" turns out so suspicious that there is a clear and open argument beyond any reasonable doubt that the person is a baddie, then neglect NwwrD1 and vote for the person.

Second amendment to the NwwrD1

If there is no overwhelming argument on anyone fitting the description of "those who invest into the game", then try to affect the lynching as to save those you think fit the description or who feel the most innocent.

Third amendment to the NwwrD1

If there is no overwhelming argument on anyone fitting the description of "those who invest into the game" and there is no chance to stay around at the deadline and affect the voting, then pick the most suspicious person from the low-posters / non-involveds and hope for the best.


My late dinner is ready and cooling... More thoughts soonish.

[Pitchwife]

Back and just finished reading. One little comment:

Originally Posted by SpM #186

Perhaps a PitchWolf had spotted the Bear and was signalling to his packmates.

Nice thought, but obviously Pitchwolf would have had ample time to do so at Night, so why in the open Daylight? As I said above, my vote was more of a shot in the dark that luckily hit home. I had no idea Boro was the Bear, of all furry things, though in retrospect clues weren't altogether lacking.

[Roa_Aoife]

Okay, I just woke up from my nap and now I'm catching up.

[Roa_Aoife]

#194- Greenie: Not again! Eventually, people must realize that this argument ends up getting me lynched innocent more often than it catches me as a wolf. Which would imply it never catches me as a wolf- it would be similar to Hakon's metagaming. Sure he got lucky, but that doesn't mean his reasoning was sound. (Sorry, but one can only be lynched for making sense so many times before it gets irritating.) Also, I never suspected Nog. I made a point of ignoring him, so I wouldn't end up focusing on him instead of looking for wolves. (Which is what I ended up doing with SPM, so perhaps I ought to add him to my "ignore on Day 1" book, as well.)

#195- Nogrod: Yes, we know your rules. However, can you explain why you found McCaber more suspicious than the other low posters?

Well that didn't take too long. Where is everybody?

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Nice thought, but obviously Pitchwolf would have had ample time to do so at Night, so why in the open Daylight?

Maybe he wanted to get Borobear lynched instead of wasting a Night-kill on him? Still, it's a flawed theory - why lynch the Bear if you have an alternative of killing him at Night so that he can kill once too? Ok, there's a chance he might target a wolf, but the chance isn't that big.

I'd love to check what's between Roa and Nog, but now I'm ravenous and will get something to eat first. And also, I'll vote in an hour, or I hope to, since I need to go to bed (my alarm clock will ring in something like nine hours from now). Back in a minute! Be productive while I'm away so I'll have some lovely new last-minute ideas. Please?

EDIT: x-ed with Roa

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Roa

#194- Greenie: Not again! Eventually, people must realize that this argument ends up getting me lynched innocent more often than it catches me as a wolf. Which would imply it never catches me as a wolf- it would be similar to Hakon's metagaming. Sure he got lucky, but that doesn't mean his reasoning was sound. (Sorry, but one can only be lynched for making sense so many times before it gets irritating.)

Just to be clear - I wasn't suspecting you because you are making sense - I just find it creepy when I realise I'm discarding the possibility of someone being a baddie because s/he is making so much sense. So when I became too conscious that I was doing exactly this with you, I sort of got an opposite reaction (ie. continuously thinking "Roa could be a wolf"). And then I got this funny idea of you and Nog being fellows, which would, if it was correct, make you a wolf. (Captain Obvious strikes again!)

Originally Posted by Roa

Also, I never suspected Nog. I made a point of ignoring him, so I wouldn't end up focusing on him instead of looking for wolves. (Which is what I ended up doing with SPM, so perhaps I ought to add him to my "ignore on Day 1" book, as well.)

Right. That's theory ruined. Though actually, making a point of ignoring someone in order not to end up focusing only on that said person would be a very neat way of avoiding saying anything specific about your fellow... Gah, I'll look into that once I have time. Now I'm really starving so I'm off to eat.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I'd love to check what's between Roa and Nog,

Now I'm really curious, what exactly are you talking about?

Edit: crossed with Greenie

[Roa_Aoife]

Would it make you feel better if Nogrod and I had a big back and forth like the one SPM got into yesterDay? How exactly would it help the village? And can I at least wait until he's finished his dinner?

[Nogrod]

Belly full then...

To quickly answer the other questions before delving into some actual work with this.


Why nor vote for Greenie as NwwrD1 doesn't clearly discard of her (like it does with Spm and Roa - making up the three I suspected yesterDay)?

Combine the facts that:
a) I tend to suspect her basically everytime and it made me waver if my suspicion (and the things I looked as suspicious with her posts & things with Spm) was merely feeling-based and not reasonable enough.
b) Her "retaliatory-vote" (vote someone who suspects you) felt so bad that it could have been just a "feel-bad" -factor of being voted for in that way.

Then you have my nausea in asking myself do I really vote right if I vote her - or do I do any good if I press for lynching her?

Spm, if you think I'm a wolf and base your view into my voting "the safe way", wouldn't I have been a lot safer voting for Greenie in the end? That would have been streamlined and argued for, and would have passed your scrutiny (looking at how you analyse the votes for being "good" or "bad"). And I think that with Greenie it would have been clear she would not have been lynched as I seemed to be basically the only one actually suspecting her, so safe indeed.


So applying the NwwrD1 and it's amendments (+case Greenie) I turned into the "quiet department".


Why of the rest McCaber then?

My posts in the end of Day1 (#124 & #127) should answer that question but let's make it in shorthand here as well...

With those who do not post anything "substantial" (however one defines it) one is forced to move with feelings and hunches as one can't make arguments from nothing.

Of those not bringing themselves forwards Lari and Lottie felt to me at the time like either non-interested ordos or people with RL hindrances.

Sally looked weird and suspiciously self-conscious - but also like Sally does usually. So a fifty-fifty feeling there.

McCaber was the one who looked calculated. He posted once and what he said was that he thought myself and Fea made sense / a good job. The wolves do not wish to have enemies, they wish to rub people the right way to make those others feel comfy (and I've been rubbed the right way a bit too many times by wolves to become suspicious of it everytime I see it). So both laying low and only letting out positive things... The result: no one thinks he should be lynched. Which was indeed the case - and seems to be at present as well. Ditto.


I hope that is enough. I'd rather do something else the rest of the time I have here toDay...

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Greenie

Heeeeeeeeeeey actually I got an idea. Nog and Roa together?

The stuff of nightmares!

More seriously: SpM has a point about the wolves spreading their votes, which would speak against sally and Lari both being wolves, and the same (with reduced improbability, as there were more votes for Morsul to hide in) for Lottie and Fea.
As for Lottie, I've misjudged her before because she sometimes presents her points a little sketchily and wouldn't like to make that mistake again - she may have had better reasons for her vote than she committed to the keyboard, or maybe not. But I think both sally and Lari could do with some pressure toDay, and it would also be nice to hear some reasoned prose from Fea.
On the other hand there's still a possibility that SpM may be the cobbler trying to deflect suspicion from the bandwagoners.

More after supper.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

it would also be nice to hear some reasoned prose from Fea.

While I'd love to post with reason
Having facts writ' down in prose
You must know it would be treason
If at the mods I thumbed my nose.
'Tis a Poe game and he rhymes,
Meaning proper imitation
Needs abundance of fell crimes
Or a rhythmic repitition.
That is not to say I'm evil
And am hiding in my verses.
Who would think me as the devil,
One who kills, and rends, and curses?
Lo! It's not that I don't want to give my thoughts away.
Frankly, I'm constrained by form for what I can say.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

'Tis a Poe game and he rhymes,
Meaning proper imitation
Needs abundance of fell crimes
Or a rhythmic repitition.

Ah, but Poe was a master of both poetry and prose, and capable of lucid argumentation as well (see Heureka, for example). Not that it's easy for a single person to emulate his accomplishment in all genres, of course...

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Not that it's easy for a single person to emulate his accomplishment in all genres, of course...

Oh snap! I accept your challenge.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Roa

Would it make you feel better if Nogrod and I had a big back and forth like the one SPM got into yesterDay? How exactly would it help the village? And can I at least wait until he's finished his dinner?

It wouldn't make me feel better nor help the village. That I got this idea that the two of you might be wolves together has nothing to do with wanting you to be wolves together. I'd be an idiot to want that (unless I was your fellow, of course)!

Originally Posted by Noggerz

Her "retaliatory-vote" (vote someone who suspects you) felt so bad that it could have been just a "feel-bad" -factor of being voted for in that way.

So the retaliatory move you talked about earlier meant a retaliatory vote? Ah. It's true that in practise my vote was a retaliatory vote. In theory it wasn't, though, since I didn't vote for you because you suspected me, but for other reasons. Those reasons I think I have stated quite a many times.

Fact is, I want to go to sleep but I need to vote first. Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaargh.


EDIT: x-ed with Fea

[A Little Green]

I'm debating between voting Nog (I fear I'm sticking too much to a Day 1 suspicion which is never wise) and voting some submarine, ie. McCaber, Sally, Lari or Loslote. Wish I'd had more time to look at people, there are so many I have no idea about! ToMorrow, though, will be a great deal better for me (in case I'm still alive).

I wonder if Fea is the cobbler. Then again, it would seem too obvious. And then again, I wouldn't put it past Fea.


EDIT: x-ed with Sauce

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Nogrod's werewolf-rule for Day1

etc



Yes, Noggie, I fully understand and all that. But it does give you a good excuse to place a reasonably safe Day 1 vote. At the very least, you are somewhat absolving yourself of responsibility for the Day 1 lynch as it is generally pretty unlikely that your pick will end up being lynched. And I am still not sure that your reasons for picking McCaber stand up to full scrutiny.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Nice thought, but obviously Pitchwolf would have had ample time to do so at Night, so why in the open Daylight?

Well, this Pitchwolf feller might have wanted to get the Bear lynched in order to avoid the risk of him targetting a Wolf at Night. But I agree that it is not the strongest of points.

Originally Posted by Roa

Would it make you feel better if Nogrod and I had a big back and forth like the one SPM got into yesterDay?

Ooh, yes please. But can you wait while I get a big tub of popcorn ...

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

But I think both sally and Lari could do with some pressure toDay, and it would also be nice to hear some reasoned prose from Fea.

I agree, and I would particularly like to hear more from Lari and sally toDay, as I am currently leaning towards voting for one of them.

[Roa_Aoife]

Post 1- Nonsense post, presumably to tell us he wouldn't be around


Post 2- Will be around, but probably won't make it till dead-line. Says the were-bears best strategy is to kill off the wolves, says it serves the bear no benefit to work with the wolves, suggests that we set the wolves and the bear against each other.


Post 3- response to Pitch, explains again how the bear and the wolves will want to knock each other off, joins the chorus in admonishing Hakon.

(Overall, this may have been an attempt to later convince the village to let him live.)


Post 4- General analysis and response to first 55 posts:
First few posts are Junk, believes Mith started the first poster theory, finds Sauce's reserve "a-typical."

(SPM seems to have conveniently missed that when he reviewed Boromir's posts. But that's very slight.)

Slight suspicion of Inzil due to questioning about first poster theory, but it's very slight.

(Slight enough, I think, that it probably doesn't point to Inzil.)

Is most suspicious of Sally

(I think that this actually would point away from Sally, as it would be really obvious.)

Overall, thinks Sauce is innocent in the whole FW confusion

(While it's possible that a wolf SPM may have targeted Boro to point away from himself, I find this unlikely, as it seems you'd want to keep people who think you're innocent around.)

Doesn't understand the suspicion against Roa

(Thankyou. But seriously, if I draw a conclusion from this it would be silly.)

Finds Morsul the most suspicious in the FW discussion.

(Well we know how that turned out)



Post 5- response to Roa, insists the bear and the wolves are enemies


Post 6- response to Morsul: "Fair enough"


Post 7- response to Nogrod: says it's good to state the obvious


Post 8- clarification about Sally suspicion, not bothered by Pitch's vote, finds Morsul the most suspicious, bad feeling about Nogrod

(This seems to point to Nogrod, and away from Greenie. But with Greenie's insistence on lynch Nogrod, I have to wonder if it was planned that way.)

Post 9- read and comment:

Wilwa is ok.

(Pretty neutral in how this regards wilwa.)

Disagrees with Nog about Sauce being the Cobbler

(This doesn't say anything about Nog, really, though it points away from SPM. And again, that may have been the idea, but I find it unlikely.)

McCaber greyed out part of his post

(This niether points to or away from McCaber)

Changes his mind on Nog's suspicion of Greenie, now finds Greenie suspicious.

(So scratch what I said earlier. Now I wonder if Greenie and Nogrod are wolves together planning on using their usual tit-for-tat as a cover, and if one of them gets lynched, it makes the other look better.)


Post 10- Decides not to comment on Hakon since it's been commented on to death. Addresses SPM vs Roa:

Thinks SPM may be over-reacting when he accuses Roa and Nog of being agressive, Thinks SPM may not have been over-reacting to the rest- points out that it's Roa's style to push people hard

(Again, I really can't draw conclusions that anyone else would find credible here.)

Response to Nog- Doesn't think SPM was trying to buddy up to him

(Aside from disagreeing, this is a fairly neutral statement, so it doesn't point one way or the other.)


Post 11- points out Morsul's insistence on the statistical odds of SPM being a wolf.


Post 12- Explains Nogrod's vote for McCaber, but doesn't understand why he didn't vote for Greenie

(Again, this could point to either Nogrod or Greenie, and possibly both, in my opinion.)


Post 13- Considers voting Lari, but votes Morsul instead.

(This is really the only thing that points to Lari, and I'm not sure it's enough. Of the two Hakon voters, Sally seems to obvious, but that could be the idea. )

In general, I find Nogrod and Greenie the most suspicious based solely on this.


Edit: Crossed with a host

[Roa_Aoife]

It's not cute anymore, Fea. Nor is it helpful.

Fea is probably either the cobbler, or a wolf pretending to be the cobbler.

edit: crossed with pitch and Fea. Good, hopefully we'll get some sense out of you now.

[Roa_Aoife]

Oh, and that was an analysis of Bearomir's posts. Sorry.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

It's not cute anymore, Fea. Nor is it helpful.

Of course it's cute!

[A Little Green]

++ Sally

I said in my previous post why I don't want to vote Nog toDay. I want to go for a submarine. I ended up on Sally because she is maybe the most evil-looking of the submarines. Decide wisely, I'm off to bed.

[Roa_Aoife]

I don't know if I like Greenie's vote for Sally. She's been on Nogrod for a while, but then votes Sally as an "evil-looking submarine" without explaining why she thinks Sally looks evil. Sally's also a very easy vote, because a lot of people are suggesting she's a wolf because of her vote for Hakon.

[Pitchwife]

Now I wonder if Greenie and Nogrod are wolves together planning on using their usual tit-for-tat as a cover, and if one of them gets lynched, it makes the other look better.

I was about to ask whether Greenie would keep it up so consistently toDay in this case, but just noticed she's 1. backed off Nog for now and 2. adopted his principle of submarine hunting instead. The reason she gives for 1. sounds reasonable (not wanting to stick to Day 1 suspicions too much) - although, if she had good reasons to suspect him which haven't been invalidated since, why not stick with them? As for 2., I obviously can't find any fault with that, nor with her choice among the subs. (Yes, I remember I voted Boro because he claimed to find sally most suspicious of the subs. I still think neither her early morning jokes nor her vote would be highly suspicious as such, it's both together that worries me. And I'm not saying she's the most suspicious now, but one of four possible candidates.)

[Nogrod]

Do you want to see my "I don't like..." list?

Well, wish it or not, here it comes.

I don't like the way Greenie plays on D1 nor on D2. That vote for me felt just malice-driven then. She knows how I play but didn't give any good explanation for her vote; toDay she continued repeating some off-the-mark things on me and said she would like to make a few questions on me to judge me better (which she never did, so trying to look good only?) - but she didn't make a single notice on what I answered her (and others) on those initial suggestions. On the contrary she acted like I had said nothing to answer her doubts and only dismissed voting me on the grounds that it's not too good to stick with D1 suspicions only. And I can see a scenario where she didn't want to vote me again for the reason that I might actully focus my attention to her this time for good - and now with some reasons backing my possible vote which some others might follow.

I don't like the way Fea keeps herself over and above the actual debate. The poems and the "novellettes" are fine and entertaining but the substance is greatly lacking. I might vote her just for the frustration, but her vote yesterDay was actually quite suspicious. Many of you have said you wouldn't "put it past Fea" to make such an openly gay nailing vote on an innocent. I would say I would be surprised if she would have handled the situation differently were she a wolf...

I don't like the ever larger compartment of submarines we have around. Whatever Sally's role is, her last post is indicative of the situation... She managed to mention a handful of people: one who stood out because of poetry, another because of voting for her and four because they have been the most vocal... So there the submarines will keep diving under any radar...

I don't like some bandwagonish / easy-going votes from yesterDay and the subsequent silence toDay, mainly Lottie, Sally and Lari...

I don't like McCaber's calculative submarine-approach.

[McCaber]

So I did some thinking on Hakon's posts, and I managed to come up with just about what Fea said: that he dropped one too many seer hints and Boro decided to take the potential risk of suspicion there.

And as for Boro, I think he was probably just a no-trace kill.

[McCaber]

And once more I'm out of time.

++Nogrod

for voting me for rather spurious reasons yesterDay.

[Nogrod]

Roa: Sorry, I just don't get your analysis on Boro...

Where are the deductions there from?

How are you making those points from Boro's posting? What kind of "theory of motivation" do you use there?

Boro is most suspicious of someone = points away from that person as one who'd kill him during the Night?
Boro suspected someone = that person would have killed him?
Boro "slightly" suspected someone = that person probably didn't go to kill him?
Boro considers voting for someone = maybe not enough to kill him?

Not only do I find this "analysis" odd but also a bit too purpose-oriented...

And how do you find me and Greenie being in cahoots, on the basis of what Boro said? How would his words be any authority on that, how would have his words related to anything asa he was a bear and knew nothing? Still you say your deductions are based "solely on this" ( = your analysis on what Boro said).

Are your werewolf -schemes getting better of your good sense and you were creating there a wannabe conspiracy-theory of three wolves and forgot that Boro was a Bear?

Or did I miss something?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

I don't know if I like Greenie's vote for Sally. She's been on Nogrod for a while, but then votes Sally as an "evil-looking submarine" without explaining why she thinks Sally looks evil. Sally's also a very easy vote, because a lot of people are suggesting she's a wolf because of her vote for Hakon.

It does look opportunistic, but the same could be said for many of yesterDay's votes. Confusing, to say the least.
Fea, Lari, and Loslote have been mostly in my thoughts toDay.
The reasons are obvious: the Hakon and Morsul voters still look to be the best bet for wolf-spotting.
Question is, who comes off looking the worst?
Fea tacked on the final nail for Morsul, and seemed a bit proud of it.
Lari brought the second vote for Hakon not long after Sally voted him. An ill innocent not having the time or inclination to look over things thoroughly, or an ill wolf jumping onto what looked to be a safe target?
Loslote looked very bad to me when she made the vote for Morsul. Her back-and-forth with him afterwards made her seem a little more innocent, though. I intend to look more closely at things later.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

RoaNot only do I find this "analysis" odd but also a bit too purpose-oriented...

Do you have a theory on what that purpose might be?

x/d with Pitch, and Roa

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Roa: Sorry, I just don't get your analysis on Boro...

Where are the deductions there from?

How are you making those points from Boro's posting? What kind of "theory of motivation" do you use there?

Boro is most suspicious of someone = points away from that person as one who'd kill him during the Night?
Boro suspected someone = that person would have killed him?
Boro "slightly" suspected someone = that person probably didn't go to kill him?
Boro considers voting for someone = maybe not enough to kill him?

Not only do I find this "analysis" odd but also a bit too purpose-oriented...

And how do you find me and Greenie being in cahoots, on the basis of what Boro said? How would his words be any authority on that, how would have his words related to anything asa he was a bear and knew nothing? Still you say your deductions are based "solely on this" ( = your analysis on what Boro said).

Are your werewolf -schemes getting better of your good sense and you were creating there a wannabe conspiracy-theory of three wolves and forgot that Boro was a Bear?

Or did I miss something?

Allow me to explain: I'm looking at it from the perspective of the wolves not knowing that Boro was the bear. If they did figure it out, then discussing his death is rather pointless, but we have know way of knowing if they did.

I don't think a wolf would kill someone who blatantly found them to be the most suspicious, as it would quite obviously point to them. I do think that a wolf might kill someone with the goal of making someone else look bad. That's why I initially thought Greenie-wolf may have killed Boromir to make you look bad. But then Boromir did a 180 on the whole thing, suspecting Greenie and not you.

And then I remembered what Greenie said, about a connection between you and me, and I thought about why she would say that when I just ignored you. And then it occurred to me that she may be trying to cover up her own tracks in doing just that. It really would be a perfect cover- one of you always suspects the other, anyways, so no one would find that out of the ordinary. And if one of you got lynched, the other would automatically look good. She fell into the easy vote of voting for you, and you built a suspicion of her and then backed down. It seems rather perfect wolf-on-wolf to me.

As for the rest, I tried to put myself in the position of the wolves, thinking on each person in perspective: a slight suspicion may not be worth killing over. A suspicion that wasn't exactly slight, but wasn't the strongest? Well, that has the potential to be dangerous and grown into the strongest suspicion.

I may be over-thinking it. Boro wasn't shy about discussing the bear, so it's possible the wolves picked him out. Or maybe the wolves just wanted to get rid of a strong player that could be a threat to them later. The point is that we don't know, so we have to continue to look at all the possibilities. This alone wouldn't be enough to lynch anyone, which is why I emphasized the "based solely on this" part.

Edit: Crossed with Pitch and Inzil.

[Roa_Aoife]

Also, of course it's purpose oriented. My purpose is to find out why the wolves killed Boro.

[Pitchwife]

Greenie's stated reason for voting Nog yesterDay, other than retaliating, was 'because he makes weak reasons sound big'. Going through his early posts yesterDay (before she first said this) I could find only two points to which she may have referred, other than his suspecting her to be the Bear:
1. his case for SpM being the cobbler, which was chiefly based on the FWI discussion and relied on SpM rather misinterpreting the narration on purpose than being genuinely confused;
2. his suspicion (backed by linguistic nitpicking) that Roa had only pretended to be confused about the number of wolves. Looked overblown to me at the time, but likely a language problem.
Note that he used 1. to corroborate the Greenie=Bear hypothesis:

Originally Posted by Nog #69

It was just an hour before Spm had made his own version of this "heh, you got me" -stuff and now Greenie was responding? It does look like a cobbler / wolf / bear -probing to me.

This seems a bit stretched. Given that Bear and Wolves are natural competitors, would a Bear really want to signal to the Wolves, or the cobbler?
And that's about it. Grasping at straws? Maybe, but on purpose and with malevolent intent?