WWLXX: At the Prison of Ice

[Roa_Aoife]

So what exactly are you trying to say, Boromir?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

I agree with Mac- a gifted that gets themselves lynched deserves their fate. The only people who have a reason to try to spot gifteds are the wolves. The rest of us are supposed to be wolf spotting.

Exactly. I mean, yes, it's true we've lynched gifteds a lot lately, to the point where I can understand people getting paranoid– but there's really not much the village as a whole can do to prevent it.

As for Boro... echoing Zil, what are you trying to say, Boro? That we should not lynch suspicious people? That we should lynch anyone who makes sense instead? Really?

EDIT:X'd with Lottie; fixed quotes.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

As for Boro... echoing Zil, what are you trying to say, Boro? That we should not lynch suspicious people? That we should lynch anyone who makes sense instead? Really?

Wolves can't make sense? That's a first.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Wolves can't make sense? That's a first.

Seriously, if we start lynching people because they make sense, I'm quitting. Of course wolves can make sense. Of course innocents could lack sense. But saying we should lynch someone because they make sense is utterly ridiculous, and exactly what the wolves would want. They want the strong rational players that aren't drawing suspicion out of the way, because an innocent who doesn't draw suspicion is one less person to get lynched in place of a wolf. What you're suggesting basically gives the wolves a lot more places to hide, and little to fear in watching their step. It is because the wolves have to pretend that we can catch them. Targeting the reasonable means that the wolves don't have to be so careful. Your whole line of reasoning is flawed, and more than that, helps the wolves.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

So what exactly are you trying to say, Boromir?

I'm saying it's not as easy as "lets vote for wolves and any gifted who gets lynched deserves it." Because there is a logical and understandable reason for a gifted to want to look suspicious and hope it's not so suspicious they get lynched.

There is also a logical and understandable reason for wolves to want to look reasonable and agreeable so they don't get lynched. It's the dynamics of their situations.

Wolves biggest danger is the lynch, thus look reasonable to avoid it. The gifteds biggest danger is dying at night, by the wolves, thus they tend to want to attract suspicion to keep the wolves away.

Did I say we just go lynching all the reasonable ones? No. But it's a good start on Day 1, and lets try to separate the true ones from the fakers and don't be trigger happy on the people who jump out early as ones who make you "nervous."

edit: crossed with Boro - my "I agree with Pitch" was half-in-character, by the way.~Mac

The suspicion was directed more towards Pitch for making such an obvious statement and that being the only thing that really stands out about him at the moment.

[Brinniel]

Ugh, I just remembered how awful this deadline is for me. I'm only going to be around for a small window during the first half of the Day, unfortunately. So I'll do my best to participate now, though I'm afraid it's not much.

Nienna seemed to be the first to move away from the banter, which I appreciate. Right now I'm just too tired to process any long bantery posts, so let's just stay on-topic, okay?

On the subject of the gifteds, I agree we just leave it alone and not worry about accidentally lynching them. Our roles are our own responsibility and it's up to the gifted how they play. If we lynch them, it's not our fault; they are the ones to blame because it is by their own actions that makes them suspicious. And anyway, if we focus too much on who the gifteds may be and how to avoid them, we may end up leaving clues for the wolves, which could be quite dangerous if any of them are accurate.

Btw, I don't think Boro is saying let's lynch those who make sense and leave alone anyone who is acting suspicious. I think he's just trying to say we need to keep in mind that not everyone who is obviously suspicious is a wolf (and may even be possibly gifted) and not everyone who makes sense is innocent. So we can't make any assumptions based on that alone. Which I agree.

How I hate Day Ones. Not that they're useless, but I always have trouble coming to any conclusions, especially this early in the Day. I don't think it'd be right for me to vote now since it'd have to be completely random and I'm not in the mood for randomness. So I may not vote at all toDay. There's a possibility I'll be able to pop in real quick and vote later toMorrow, but don't have any high expectations.

P.S. I also think we should keep in mind that the polar bears are an endangered species and we must work to save them. Because if we can't catch the wolves, the polar bears will totally do the job for us and eat them for breakfast.

[Bes]

Well, we've got plenty of food, water and other good stuff. We could just hunker down for a while, wait for a rescue team to come out, and let the police handle this whole mess. Don't get me wrong, I won't sleep easy knowin' we got a murderer on our hands, but I don't know that we're any safer for panicking...
------------------------------------

Sorry I'm late. I usually won't be on most days.

I wish I had more to contribute for the first day? I guess the only thing striking me is how a lot of Boro's arguments lean towards "Don't kill suspicious people, they might be gifted!" followed by backpedaling when someone carries that to it's logical conclusion... To be fair, I'm over simplifying that, and his argument has been fully qualified and then rejoined by people more awake that myself.

So... I guess that means I have nothing of value to contribute after all. Uhm.

Out of curiosity, has anyone ever successfully forged an agreement to not place a lynch vote for the first day? It seems like a succinct solution to the dilemma, but the odds of getting all of the players to actually agree to it seems very low.

[Roa_Aoife]

Nope. Unfortunate as it may turn out to be should we lynch an innocent, the voting record is remarkably useful on the following Day.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Nope. Unfortunate as it may turn out to be should we lynch an innocent, the voting record is remarkably useful on the following Day.

Sometimes it isn't recall my last bandwagon not a single wolf... *Ducks under bucket thrown by nienna*

and as for Boro everyone says he would be more careful as a wolf... I survived as long as I did in my first game with the opposite strategy go crazy"ducks again"... Boro's a crafty player don't rule anything out though for the moment not convinced either way.

Bes said she didn't want a vote... Now without a seer we wouldn't benefit at all from waiting a day we just lose another person. but she could just be getting her Sealegs HAHA get it we're on a boat... seriously why am I up I slept like four hours...

[Morsul the Dark]

I Just realized what the deadline is... 4PM by my time... I'm going to be at work... um... I don't really want to vote now because I only have a few suspects and they're no strong at all....

Just looked at the rules... DL says 9pm GMT making it 8pm for me... however day 1 started at 5pm so 4pm for me....

Should I add 24 hours to that first post or go by the admin thread rules

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

I Just realized what the deadline is... 4PM by my time... I'm going to be at work... um... I don't really want to vote now because I only have a few suspects and they're no strong at all....

Just looked at the rules... DL says 9pm GMT making it 8pm for me... however day 1 started at 5pm so 4pm for me....

Should I add 24 hours to that first post or go by the admin thread rules

To state it clearly, DL is the time of when the Day 1 narration was posted (the one labeled "Expedition Journal - Day 1 Entry", the last post of mine on this thread, simply). So you should be able to read the time from there if you are unsure. Although I thought I have counted the DL time correctly.

[Mnemosyne]

Originally Posted by Bes

Out of curiosity, has anyone ever successfully forged an agreement to not place a lynch vote for the first day? It seems like a succinct solution to the dilemma, but the odds of getting all of the players to actually agree to it seems very low.

Reduce our small chance of nabbing a wolf to no chance nabbing a wolf...

I think not.

The vote is the one powerful tool we as a group have; if we give that up all we are are meaningless numbers. Yeah, we might screw things up, but at least we did something.

Plus as Roa said lynch votes can be really helpful for analysis, plus all that the wolves would have to do is give us a completely flusterworthy no-trace kill and we'd be back in the same pickle.

And if we want to translate this into numbers... the wolves (and, to an extent, the Ranger) already have control of who dies toNight. We control (and yes, there are wolves in our number, but in this case they are just four among many) who dies toDay.

So, interesting idea (and definitely, I think, novel), but you wouldn't get me at least to go along with it.

[Bes]

Roa and Mnemo: Duly noted.

[Roa_Aoife]

I'm going to lock down in my cabin for while. Scream if someone gets attacked.

Translation: I have a persuasive speech to give tomorrow, extra early, and I have to give it completely from memory. I'm going to bed.

[Bes]

The stock room manager went a bit pale at the survival guide's statement, and retreated haltingly from the room, muttering something about checking the water inventory.
----------------------------------

I need to be getting to sleep, too. Hopefully I'll get back to the thread before night falls, but I'm not counting on it. Goodnight, Prison of Ice.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Here and reading.

[satansaloser2005]

Frantic busy (and completely rubbish) day so I don't know if I'll be voting. I just wanted to post this on the game thread so you all could see it. I'll do my best, but Mondays rather stink around here.

Also....ungrateful hacks! I do all this work to set things up and plan and then someone starts killing people? I don't feel the love, fellas, not at all.

[tromkehra]

Originally Posted by Bes

Well, we've got plenty of food, water and other good stuff. We could just hunker down for a while, wait for a rescue team to come out, and let the police handle this whole mess. Don't get me wrong, I won't sleep easy knowin' we got a murderer on our hands, but I don't know that we're any safer for panicking....

Well that's the thing, do we know if our ability to communicate with anyone outside this boat is even possible? Because if not then shouldn't we make plans now to get in contact with someone? I agree that we can't panic, but we need to be smart about what our options are.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

The conflict with letting gifteds do what they do and we do what we do, is how bad Day 1s have been turning out. Gifteds have an understandable idea that by looking suspicious they are less likely to be wolf meat. What we do is lynch those who look suspicious, thus those we think wolves. Plus with 4 wolves, and they knowing who they are, this makes steering suspicion towards someone else besides one of them all the easier. See any major conflict there?.

I see your point now regarding Gifted survival strategy, and yes, that sort of thing has led to their being lynched. But I don't see any certain way of divining which we're looking at: a nervous Gifted, or a brash wolf. Do you have any ideas?

As for the notion of not voting on Day 1, I think it unproductive, and helpful only to the wolves.

[Morsul the Dark]

Working Today so I'll be present later on tonight after work for now though....

"Frankly, understand we gave you extra funds to replace equipment as it became worn down. Replacing Deliberately smashed machines is not nothing we are about to continue dealing with. I suggest we find who did this as quickly as possible so we don't continue wasting Taxpayers hard-earned money!"

My only observations at this point are these..

Boro is the only one really jumping out at me.... mostly because everyone else looks fairly reasonable which according to him at this point means they should be lynched simply seems like an odd reason to vote for someone... although it is an interesting thought and seems more thoughtful than deceitful...

only time will tell

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

It is also just as likely, taking Professor Tolkien's advice, that a servant of the enemy would likely appear fair. And on Day 1, those who look like they are making sense, tend to get written off as innocent. Why is reasonableness a sign of innocence? It can be, but it can just as likely be a cunning wolf.

You know what? We know that, Boro. Reasonableness can't prove innocence... but it can't prove guilt, either. Wolves try all kinds of tactics.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

When did I backpedal? I've what anyone has seen happen before, that gifteds have just as much reason to purposefully attract suspicion as wolves have just as much reason to not want it. And that making sense doesn't make one innocent.

I wouldn't so much say you backpedalled as that you haven't made it at all clear what you are proposing. You certainly seemed to be implying that we should lynch helpful people first and suspicious ones last. Then you say you're not saying that, so what are you saying? That we shouldn't all jump on the first person who looks a bit odd, as that person might well be gifted? That I'd agree with– however, it's a point you could have made a lot more clearly and concisely.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Both you and Roa are assuming that I'm on some anti-rationality crusade. I'm not. I'm speaking on Day 1, but too many times already we've been crippled on Day 1 because we simply "let the gifteds do what they need to do and we will do what we need to do?" But there is a major dilemma, because putting those two together has been leading to getting more gifteds lynched on Day 1 than wolves.

And this is true... but do you have a better idea?

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I neither preach nor teach. I am what I am, and I know what I am. Someone's got to be.

What?

EDIT:X'd with Zil and Morsul.

[Macalaure]

The only interesting thing to talk about at this point appears to be Boro. I don't think he's a wolf, for the following reason. Wolf-Boro could certainly have accidentally put himself into the tight spot with #29, but he would know better than to keep on arguing a lost cause (lost not even necessarily because he's wrong, but because everybody disagrees with him, and you can already see a malreasoned bandwaggon looming). Wolf-Boro would have dropped it long ago.

This means that the actually interesting thing to talk about are the reactions to him. I see three possible wolfish responses. 1. Agreement, in an effort to lead the village astray side by side with an innocent Boro, 2. Plain disagreement, putting oneself on the majority's side anticipating the general disagreement or going along with it now that it's there, 3. Maintaining the discussion, so that the village wastes time talking about things that don't matter.

1: none
2: Nogrod, disagrees without a fuss, which actually doesn't look very suspicious; Pitch's comment might be suspicious.
3: Inziladun, starting with "Huh?" and continuing; Nerwen, first merely picking up what Roa and Inzil said, then going into attack now (which would look innocent if her tone wasn't so darn sinister); Morsul made himself comfortable on the fence.

Roa is innocent-looking because, while maintaining the discussion, she puts herself out there and doesn't just stay around the corners. Of course, we're talking about Roa here - so she's probably evil anyway. Brinn's mild defense looks genuine. Bes's response (#39) is a bit awkward, but doesn't fit my infallible categories.

Mnemo, Shasta, and trom ignore the matter, though Shasta at least acknowledges that it's being talked about (which I don't know what to think of).

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I see three possible wolfish responses. 1. Agreement, in an effort to lead the village astray side by side with an innocent Boro, 2. Plain disagreement, putting oneself on the majority's side anticipating the general disagreement or going along with it now that it's there, 3. Maintaining the discussion, so that the village wastes time talking about things that don't matter.

Mac, even on your own terms that doesn't make sense... because in fact ignoring an innocent Boro would also be a possible wolvish response– I should say a probable one. At least one wolf nearly always keeps out of the limelight.

Meanwhile, it being Day One, peculiar statements are going to draw attention. There's not much else to go on, after all. Boro has been saying something perfectly obvious as though it's a revelation; sometimes he seems to be be saying we should lynch on that basis and sometimes not... and if not, I don't see why he's going on about it.

As for your saying I'm "attacking" him and being "sinister"... no idea where you're getting that from.

EDIT:X'd with some Morsuls and Greenies. Also the mod.

[Morsul the Dark]

Ok so the Deadline(If I counted right Is While I'm at work)

So uh um Boro or Mac....

Boro Seemed strange for what he was saying and it was Suspicious but as read it again seems reasonable but then again b his own logic I shouldn't dismiss him because of it

Mac hasn't said much but the quote I talked about earlier still bugs me and has a uncomfrtable feel to it he used the same basic logic of not posted much for 8 people yet came up with 3 innocent 3 bad and 2 neutral...

boro mac boro mac boro mac.......


++Macalaure

Not just that one post he also calls Nerwen sinister which I never saw or thught so it felt like a tossed suspicion

He also basically came after anyone who disagreed with Boro.

The only interesting thing to talk about at this point appears to be Boro. I don't think he's a wolf, for the following reason. Wolf-Boro could certainly have accidentally put himself into the tight spot with #29, but he would know better than to keep on arguing a lost cause (lost not even necessarily because he's wrong, but because everybody disagrees with him, and you can already see a malreasoned bandwaggon looming). Wolf-Boro would have dropped it long ago.

I just disagree with this if he talked himself into a corner he could keep it up to look innocent More importantly if he Is innocent it would make Mac look god for defending him.

Not much but being forced to vote now....

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

This means that the actually interesting thing to talk about are the reactions to him. I see three possible wolfish responses. 1. Agreement, in an effort to lead the village astray side by side with an innocent Boro, 2. Plain disagreement, putting oneself on the majority's side anticipating the general disagreement or going along with it now that it's there, 3. Maintaining the discussion, so that the village wastes time talking about things that don't matter.

Sounds as if you're saying anyone who said anything in response to Boro could be evil. Aren't you painting with a rather broad brush?

x/d with Nerwen and Nog

[Thinlómien]

Although I've been and I am busy - so not necessarily much posting toDay especially as I'm sharing net with Greenie - I must say it feels so good to play ww again after missing the few latest games. *stretches* I've been just laughing at everybody's stupid jokes here and feeling sort of at home. Aww.

*cough* Now to business maybe.

Here's what I think of people this far:
Inziladun - seems okay enough, but knowing him, I wouldn't make quick judgements.
Mnemosyne - okay, here we go again, but she seems quite eyebrow-raising to me. Her posting seems to be bantering mixed with Captain Obvious statements to make her seem reasonable. Plus, she's been continuing the rather pointless "should be careful about gifteds" debate. That definetely doesn't make me feel good about her, although I must say that banter+Cap O.B. statements are an easy way for anyone to play in early Day1.
Boromir88 - is crazy and all over the place and sayiong weird stuff, but he doesn't really seem too bad; I think he would be a bit more careful as a wolf.
Eomer of the Rohirrim - not around.
Loslote - has not said much of consequence but is funny. Could be anything.
Morsul - no idea yet.
Brinn - seems like her normal self ie could be anything based on the evidence so far.
Pitchwife - I feel inclined to like him because he's funny, agreeable and makes sense (at times). But then again, especially as he himself pointed it out, I'm wondering if he's too agreeable to be good.
Nienna - I don't get why everybody considers her innocent. All I have seen her do this far is to make a few very Cap O.B. statements and indirectly starting the useless talk about being careful about lynching gifteds. And really, why does anyone need to say "we don't want to lynch any gifteds"? *takes a deep breath* Okay, I know I've suspected her on faulty reasons before, but at this point she does merit my suspicion.
Nogrod - another weird type. He is very nonsensical for himself: he popped in several times and most of his stuff is just banter. Normally he's more of the "cut the crap" sort, so I'm wondering if he's a wolf and more bantery because he doesn't really need to use his massive brain to finding wolves or enjoying his role way too much. Or both.
Macalaure - I hope is not making references at my relatively recent gifted performance. *glares*
sally - the original initiator of the expedition
Thinlómien - that's me, that's meeeeeeeeeee! *walks to the airplane and is never seen again*
Nerwen - seems rather controversial. The weird thing is that she doesn't usually do that as a wolf.
Roa - seems innocent this far. Let's not lynch her on Day3 (or was it 4? ).
Bes - I appreciate her effort to get a grasp of the game, but looking forward to more stuff.
Shasta - seems quite good.
wilwa - hasn't been around.
Greenie - is waiting for me to give her the net...
tromkehra - looking forwards to seeing more out of character stuff.


edit: xed with Maccalaure (would sound Italian, eh?)

[Nienna]

Ahhkk I have 5 minutes before work but I'll be on later.

I agree with Mac about Boro. He was just stating something and then when everyone jumped on it he defended the statement.

I see the Nog I know and love coming back.

Lommy is suspecting me for absolutely no reason... this seems vaguely familiar .... I'm going to do my best not to suspect you out of pure retaliation right now.

No one else stands out to me.

Edit: Crossed w/ Morsul

[A Little Green]

Honestly, though the debate about lynching/not lynching reasonable people has made people talk a lot and given us stuff to read, I can't help but see it as a rather stupid topic. We shouldn't take people as innocent if they make sense, but that doesn't mean we should lynch them, either. Being sensible has nothing to do with innocence or guilt. Neither has not being sensible. Therefore, lynching people based on making sense or not making sense is pointless. Debating about it is likewise pointless. Period.

I have a vague good feeling about Lommy, Brinn, Boro and Nog (!!!). I'm trying not to feel suspicious of people simply because of keeping up a pointless debate that helps us in no way (except, as I stated before, to give us stuff to read), but I could hazard a guess that there is at least one baddie there (namely thinking about Roa, Inzil, Morsul and Nerwen). Way too many people are under my radar.

I'll be popping in and out until DL, I have stuff to do but I can check and post regularly. Hooray!


EDIT: x-ed with Morsul