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Visit The *EVEN NEWER* Barrow-Downs Photo Page |
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12-11-2009, 04:32 PM
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#1 |
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Werewolf Psychic
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
Posts: 2,832
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Which, if we'd remembered this yesterday, would mean Lottie would still be alive.
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
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12-11-2009, 04:39 PM
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#2 | |
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Flame of the Ainulindalë
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves
Posts: 9,308
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You're right Sally & Shasta... The rules say the maximum number of wolves alive.
Quote:
Anyway. I will be recounting the scenarios...
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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12-11-2009, 04:46 PM
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#3 |
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The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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Sorry, but I have to go. I've loaded up all the pages and will look things over while I'm away tonight but will have no internet (or at least I don't think I will) for eight hours or so. I'll see you all when I get back. Don't do anything stupid.
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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12-11-2009, 04:51 PM
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#4 | |
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Werewolf Psychic
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
Posts: 2,832
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Quote:
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
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12-11-2009, 04:58 PM
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#5 | |
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Flame of the Ainulindalë
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves
Posts: 9,308
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So we are 8 players alive (and with just one lynch considered to make it easier).
4 ordos (who don't know each other or anyone) 2 gifteds (who know each other) 2 wolves (who know each other) The hunter comes forwards and gives us a list of two, A and B. We lynch the hunter... Then hunter dies and takes someone with her (I'll use the feminine here so that I don't have to make that "her/him" stuff everytime I refer to the hunter). As she knows the ranger she has a go for 2 from 6 aka. 1/3 chance of getting it right. If she gets it right with either of her suspects we will be on 5 against 1 facing the Night with one known innocent the ranger can protect. So on the next Day we'll have 4 against 1 with one known innocent in our middle - so every innocent would have a 50% chance (one of two) to vote for the wolf. Very good! If she doesn't get it right, she will take one innocent with her and we'll face the Night with 4 against 2. The ranger would save the known innocent so we would arise to a new Day with 3 against 2 with one known innocent. Leaving the innocents with 2 from 3 to vote (as they know themselves to be innocents)! Good, good! That of course if the ranger is up to her/his tasks - which I hope we can count on. It looks too good to be true. If I'm not wrong with this. Please check my calculations (I'll double check them myself as well). But it also it should be thought what would happen if we did not lynch the revealed hunter but just narrowed our scope of voting toDay - although I think the wolves would be suicidal trying to kill the hunter during the Night. Or what should we do in case of a counter reveal? Do we have time to check one out with 50-50 chances? I mean if that contest is too tight, should a reasonable hunter stay hidden after all? Goes to count again... Quote:
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... Last edited by Nogrod; 12-11-2009 at 05:04 PM. Reason: Corrected a double denial that twisted the meaning... about counting on the ranger... |
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12-11-2009, 05:02 PM
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#6 |
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Flame of the Ainulindalë
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves
Posts: 9,308
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Okay, the first amendment already.
If the hunter gets her suspect A right, we can't know if her suspect B is a wolf or not, so no known innocent there. In case the hunter picks both wrong we have a known innocent on the next Day.
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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12-11-2009, 05:10 PM
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#7 |
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Flame of the Ainulindalë
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves
Posts: 9,308
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An add-on to the amendment I made...
If it is suspect A for the hunter who is a wolf then we have no known innocent, but if it is B, then we have one (as A is then not a wolf?). Am I reading the rules right Legate? The rules suggest there is a hierarchy in the hunter's list...
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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12-11-2009, 05:14 PM
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#8 |
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Laconic Loreman
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: USA
Posts: 7,521
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This must be what hell is frozen over.
Spare me from it. I'm drained from thinking and fighting.++Sacrifice Boro ++Lynch Boro Have your pick.
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Fenris Penguin
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12-11-2009, 05:20 PM
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#9 |
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Flame of the Ainulindalë
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves
Posts: 9,308
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Well that was an interesting move Boro...
Hard to see an innocent doing that. But why on earth don't you make it a fight? You'd have your chances were you a wolf... If there was a cobbler around I'd bet my inheritance (little that there is) for Boro being one. 
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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12-11-2009, 05:28 PM
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#10 |
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Flame of the Ainulindalë
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves
Posts: 9,308
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Oh Boro, I might see that... maybe you try to sacrifice yourself for the other wolf so that we wouldn't have a reveal of two suspects? That way we'd need to pick the last one quite blindly as the chances for the hunter-reveal would go a lot smaller with only one wolf left (only one pick for her).
So would you be that confident about your mate that s/he is so safe from suspicion right now that this gambling is the better deal for you than checking whether the hunter can pick you guys up?
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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