WWLXX: At the Prison of Ice - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Nogrod · 12-11-2009, 04:39 PM

You're right Sally & Shasta... The rules say the maximum number of wolves alive.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shasta

Which, if we'd remembered this yesterday, would mean Lottie would still be alive.

If we'd come up with this plan... or "remembered" what? Sorry I didn't quite get it.

Anyway. I will be recounting the scenarios...

satansaloser2005 · 12-11-2009, 04:46 PM

Sorry, but I have to go. I've loaded up all the pages and will look things over while I'm away tonight but will have no internet (or at least I don't think I will) for eight hours or so. I'll see you all when I get back. Don't do anything stupid.

Shastanis Althreduin · 12-11-2009, 04:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

You're right Sally & Shasta... The rules say the maximum number of wolves alive.

If we'd come up with this plan... or "remembered" what? Sorry I didn't quite get it.

Anyway. I will be recounting the scenarios...

If we'd remembered that the Hunter's list consisted of the number of wolves alive, they could have revealed to save Lottie. Remember, your theory rested on the fact that Lottie was a wolf, meaning there would have been three wolves alive. The Hunter could simply have said how many people they were allowed to put on their list at the time to know whether your theory was valid or not.

Nogrod · 12-11-2009, 04:58 PM

So we are 8 players alive (and with just one lynch considered to make it easier).

4 ordos (who don't know each other or anyone)
2 gifteds (who know each other)
2 wolves (who know each other)

The hunter comes forwards and gives us a list of two, A and B.

We lynch the hunter...

Then hunter dies and takes someone with her (I'll use the feminine here so that I don't have to make that "her/him" stuff everytime I refer to the hunter). As she knows the ranger she has a go for 2 from 6 aka. 1/3 chance of getting it right.

If she gets it right with either of her suspects we will be on 5 against 1 facing the Night with one known innocent the ranger can protect. So on the next Day we'll have 4 against 1 with one known innocent in our middle - so every innocent would have a 50% chance (one of two) to vote for the wolf. Very good!

If she doesn't get it right, she will take one innocent with her and we'll face the Night with 4 against 2. The ranger would save the known innocent so we would arise to a new Day with 3 against 2 with one known innocent. Leaving the innocents with 2 from 3 to vote (as they know themselves to be innocents)! Good, good!

That of course if the ranger is up to her/his tasks - which I hope we can count on.

It looks too good to be true.

If I'm not wrong with this. Please check my calculations (I'll double check them myself as well).

But it also it should be thought what would happen if we did not lynch the revealed hunter but just narrowed our scope of voting toDay - although I think the wolves would be suicidal trying to kill the hunter during the Night.

Or what should we do in case of a counter reveal? Do we have time to check one out with 50-50 chances? I mean if that contest is too tight, should a reasonable hunter stay hidden after all?

Goes to count again...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shasta

Remember, your theory rested on the fact that Lottie was a wolf, meaning there would have been three wolves alive. The Hunter could simply have said how many people they were allowed to put on their list at the time to know whether your theory was valid or not.

Appreciates being corrected... I see it now.

Nogrod · 12-11-2009, 05:02 PM

Okay, the first amendment already.

If the hunter gets her suspect A right, we can't know if her suspect B is a wolf or not, so no known innocent there. In case the hunter picks both wrong we have a known innocent on the next Day.

Nogrod · 12-11-2009, 05:10 PM

An add-on to the amendment I made...

If it is suspect A for the hunter who is a wolf then we have no known innocent, but if it is B, then we have one (as A is then not a wolf?).

Am I reading the rules right Legate? The rules suggest there is a hierarchy in the hunter's list...

Boromir88 · 12-11-2009, 05:14 PM

This must be what hell is frozen over.

Spare me from it. I'm drained from thinking and fighting.

++Sacrifice Boro

++Lynch Boro

Have your pick.

Nogrod · 12-11-2009, 05:20 PM

Well that was an interesting move Boro...

Hard to see an innocent doing that. But why on earth don't you make it a fight? You'd have your chances were you a wolf...

If there was a cobbler around I'd bet my inheritance (little that there is) for Boro being one.

Nogrod · 12-11-2009, 05:28 PM

Oh Boro, I might see that... maybe you try to sacrifice yourself for the other wolf so that we wouldn't have a reveal of two suspects? That way we'd need to pick the last one quite blindly as the chances for the hunter-reveal would go a lot smaller with only one wolf left (only one pick for her).

So would you be that confident about your mate that s/he is so safe from suspicion right now that this gambling is the better deal for you than checking whether the hunter can pick you guys up?

Boromir88 · 12-11-2009, 05:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So would you be that confident about your mate that s/he is so safe from suspicion right now that this gambling is the better deal for you than checking whether the hunter can pick you guys up?

I'm doing whatever it takes to prove I'm innocent. Saying I'm innocent won't do it, so I figured throwing my hands up and saying I'm done will. Do whatever you want, you obviously don't need my help, and I can't give it anymore.

Nogrod · 12-11-2009, 05:47 PM

Heh, one scenario for the hunter to entertain herself with...

Pick anyone you feel as your target A and then Boro as your target B. Then come open and we'll lynch you.

If A is killed by you as a wolf, we'll lynch Boro the next Day and win.

If A is not killed by you but Boro is killed, then the ranger will safeguard A the next Night and we have a known innocent with us tomorrow with a situation of 4-1 (meaning that every innocent knows her/himself + the known innocent = there are two innocents and one wolf for every innocent to choose from).

If we miss it then, it will be two against one on the last Day...

Any ranger-gambles etc. might change the picture of course.

But looking back... as odd... well as reasonable... as it seems... Boro's coming into the open is actually a good move for a wolf. The risk of us getting them both pinned down with hunter's list of two was probably a too heavy weapon... and he realised that?

So should we just lynch / sacrifice Boro and be happy with it or should we think the other scenarios? It's getting late here but I will see if I can come up with other, better scenarios before I go to sleep...

Oh Boro posted...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boro

I'm doing whatever it takes to prove I'm innocent. Saying I'm innocent won't do it, so I figured throwing my hands up and saying I'm done will. Do whatever you want, you obviously don't need my help, and I can't give it anymore.

I just can't see what you mean my friend.

- You don't think you "prove" yourself innocent by voting yourself.
- You don't give up if you're innocent.
- You have better self-esteem & understanding of the number of votes left to understand that as an innocent we'd need you.

So sorry. I'm not buying that.

12-11-2009, 04:46 PM	#2
satansaloser2005 The Sweetest Spoiler Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly Posts: 5,789	Sorry, but I have to go. I've loaded up all the pages and will look things over while I'm away tonight but will have no internet (or at least I don't think I will) for eight hours or so. I'll see you all when I get back. Don't do anything stupid. __________________ "My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.

12-11-2009, 05:02 PM	#5
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	Okay, the first amendment already. If the hunter gets her suspect A right, we can't know if her suspect B is a wolf or not, so no known innocent there. In case the hunter picks both wrong we have a known innocent on the next Day. __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

12-11-2009, 05:10 PM	#6
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	An add-on to the amendment I made... If it is suspect A for the hunter who is a wolf then we have no known innocent, but if it is B, then we have one (as A is then not a wolf?). Am I reading the rules right Legate? The rules suggest there is a hierarchy in the hunter's list... __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

12-11-2009, 05:14 PM	#7
Boromir88 Laconic Loreman Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: USA Posts: 7,521	This must be what hell is frozen over. Spare me from it. I'm drained from thinking and fighting. ++Sacrifice Boro ++Lynch Boro Have your pick. __________________ Fenris Penguin

12-11-2009, 05:20 PM	#8
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	Well that was an interesting move Boro... Hard to see an innocent doing that. But why on earth don't you make it a fight? You'd have your chances were you a wolf... If there was a cobbler around I'd bet my inheritance (little that there is) for Boro being one. __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

12-11-2009, 05:28 PM	#9
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	Oh Boro, I might see that... maybe you try to sacrifice yourself for the other wolf so that we wouldn't have a reveal of two suspects? That way we'd need to pick the last one quite blindly as the chances for the hunter-reveal would go a lot smaller with only one wolf left (only one pick for her). So would you be that confident about your mate that s/he is so safe from suspicion right now that this gambling is the better deal for you than checking whether the hunter can pick you guys up? __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...