Werewolf LXXII: Now There's the Truth of It! (Game Thread)

[Brinniel]

Wow, I seriously was not expecting to survive yesterDay..

++Izzy

++Inziladun

You guys better thanks these two for saving me because if they hadn't, you would've lynched an innocent rather than a wolf. I really can't see a reason why a wolf would choose to save me and sacrifice their mate, especially considering they had already lost one mate the Night before. Which is why I trust these two; I'll be very surprised if they turn up evil as that would've been quite a risky move.

Sorry to say that you won't be seeing much of me toDay. I've got to go to bed shortly and tomorrow I've got classes all day, so most likely you won't see me again until the last hours of the Day. I figured I might as well get half my votes in now since I already made up my mind on them. I'll be sure to use my other two later so I don't get modfired.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Loslote

1. If it wasn't a Ranger kill...are we blessed with really lazy werewolves who forgot to send in a kill or something? If so, my thanks, Wolves.

Maybe there's a secret special role that's immortal, or something.

Moddess, do I have to use up my votes from yesterDay, or do I still have 4 as usual?

EDIT:X'd with Brinn.

[Loslote]

#26: Agrees with Nerwen; says that there's probably at least one Night-Posting Wolf. (True)

#28 says good-bye.

#37 responds to Rune saying that he only thinks there is one Night-Posting Wolf (hereafter refered to as NPW, just sos I can feel all smart), but that there may be more than one.

In #89 he complains about being lynched Day 1 last game, then "votes" Nog without highlighting. Personally, I don't think he would forget something so obvious. Since at that point, I don't think anyone else had voted, he might have been trying to use Nog's reputation to bolster his own without actually doing anything to help him out.

#208: Doesn't say much; 'yays' over Mira's death.

#209, #212, and #214 look at the dead people's posts: Mira, Nienna, and Gwath. He says Form could be suspicious in #209, then says that he might not be in #214, and ends up deciding that he's Unsure. Interesting... He also says that he thinks Nog is innocent. This could be more "hey I think Nog's innocent don't I rock??? ps don't lynch me" stuff.

#217 says that he's off to bed but should be more active.

#246: Wavers on Nog but thinks he's innocent; banters with Wilwa.

#249: A list. His "trust" group seems to be mostly names that everyone, more or less, considered basically innocent: Wilwa, Fea, Nog, Pitchie. There could be one wolf in there. We know it's not Pitchie, and if it were Nog, I don't think he would have been so obvious with his trust, considering he's always talking about how much he trusts Nog. Which leads me to think Wilwa or Fea...which I find disturbing, since they're pretty widely regarded as innocent. More about that in my next post.

#278: More Nog's innocent talk. Really, does he ever say anything else? Oh, later on he does ... agree with Nog. Man. Glirdy seems to be sucking every last scrap of Nog-reputation he can get, doesn't he?

In #284 he votes for Wilwa and - you guessed it - Nog. Perhaps aware that a non-vote wouldn't fly twice, he highlights this time. As for the votes themselves, he (of course) votes Nog, and then votes Wilwa. I think it would be interesting to look at a Glirdy-Wilwa connection...we might just find something.

He votes again in #330 after expressing "astonishment" at Pitchie's death. He votes Fea, and one of his reasons was that she made a good choice as to who she used her Simon votes on - Wilwa.

#344: "Suspects" Formy, but is unsure. More about Nog.

#365: Restates that he thinks there's a wolf among the Izzy voters; votes me. I think at this point he knew there was a good chance he would be lynched, and was trying to cut all ties to his packmates. That probably means that, while there still might be a wolf among the Izzy voters, it's not very likely.

#383 asks for confirmation that he'd been lynched.

~~~

Formy and Wilwa look pretty bad to me, but I don't *want* to suspect Wilwa. She seems so helpful...although thinking about it, I can't remember why, she just seems good. Huh.

EDIT: xed with Brinn and Nerwen

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Maybe there's a secret special role that's immortal, or something.

I wouldn't put it past Sally. She did in her last game, with Mith and Nilp, didn't she? (I wasn't here then, and I read through it a while ago, my memory might be faulty.)

[Nerwen]

Anyway, may I suggest that, once we've had our fill of snuggling we start looking for Glirdan and Mira's packmates?

WW history tells us that many a village has perished through getting too complacent with a couple of wolves in the bag.

EDIT:X'd with Lottie. Well, there you go.

[Isabellkya]

I'm sure we'll find out what actually happened with the no-kill for certainty at the end of the game. Could've been forgetful wolves, or could've been The One Hit Wonder. Who knows, save for Miss Moddess; and of course the wolves would probably have an inkling.

a note/question or two that I made after Glirdan's lynching.

Wilwa, you said that you wanted to trust Glirdan, but said you'd stay neutral on him; yet earlier had stated that you felt good about him. So how does a neutral get a vote from you?
Also, you ended up voting for Rune. Why him over Nog and Loslote whom had been higher on your trust list? Whenyou'd stated that your last would go to Nog, Loslote, or Glirdan.


x'd with Nerwen and Loslote.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

a note/question or two that I made after Glirdan's lynching.

Wilwa, you said that you wanted to trust Glirdan, but said you'd stay neutral on him; yet earlier had stated that you felt good about him. So how does a neutral get a vote from you?
Also, you ended up voting for Rune. Why him over Nog and Loslote whom had been higher on your trust list? Whenyou'd stated that your last would go to Nog, Loslote, or Glirdan.

You know, the more I think about it, the more Wilwa looks iffy. Who did she vote before that? Fea and Form. Fea's been the amusing innocent the whole game - has anyone ever suspected her? I don't think so. A very safe vote. This is not to say I suspect her. Actually, I'm pretty sure she *is* innocent, which is why the fact that Wilwa and Glirdy both voted for her is a bit suspicious.

[Isabellkya]

Votes as they were made, so ... kind of messy. In a sense.

SimonFea -> Wilwa (2)
Pitch -> Eonwe, Loslote
Loslote -> Zil, Glirdan, Nog
Pitch -> Nerwen, Fea
Fea -> Wilwa (3), Izzy
Glirdan -> Wilwa (4), Nog (2)
Wilwa -> Pitch, Fea (2)
Zil -> Nog (3), Pitch
Brin -> Izzy (2)
Fea -> Nerwen (2)
Wilwa -> Form
Rune -> Fea (3), Wilwa (5)
Nog -> Rune, Zil (2), Loslote (2)
Wilwa -> Rune (2), Glirdan (2)
Glirdan -> Fea (4)
Nog -> Form (2)
Rune -> Form (3)
Eonwe -> Nerwen (3), Fea (5)
Nerwen -> Brin, Izzy (3)
Fea -> Eonwe (2)
Izzy -> Nerwen (4), Zil (3)
Glirdan -> Loslote (3)
Zil -> Nerwen (5)
Eonwe -> Zil (4)
Eonwe -> Nog (4)
Form -> Zil (5), Wilwa (6), Rune (3), Izzy (4)
Izzy -> Brin (2), Rune (4)
Zil -> Brin (3)
Song/Poem -> Fea (6), Loslote (4), Eonwe (3)

Glirdan 2
Brin 3
Eonwe 3
Form 3
Izzy 4
Loslote 4
Nog 4
Rune 4
Nerwen 5
Zil 5
Fea 6
Wilwa 6


x'd with Loslote and fixed tags, strike through doesn't work?

[Isabellkya]

Why did you vote for Glirdan, Loslote? Or for any of the people whom you voted for?

In #215, you trusted Nog, Zil, Fea and were unsure, but leaned innocent on Wilwa, Glirdan, Nerwen, Pitch.

In #277 you voted for Zil, Glirdan, Nog

So how did the unsure Glirdan get voted for, above the trusted Fea?

I was skimming through the rest of your posts, to search for reasons as to why you voted how you did. And to be quite frank, I've noticed some blaring inconsistencies in your statements. I'll cover them in my next post, but right now my dogs are yipping and crying to go outside.

[Isabellkya]

#215

Trust:
Lottie
Nog
Zil
Fea


Unsure, lean innocent:
Wilwa
Glirdy
Nerwen
Pitchie

Unsure, lean evil:
?Brinn
Formy
Izzy

Suspect:
Steve
Rune

#276 responds to Eonwe's #230, Pitch's #269, and my own #270. But somehow missed/skipped over Nerwen's #225 where she asks Loslote about the placement of BRin and myself on her unsure, lean evil list; as well as why she suspects Rune.

#277
Votes for Zil, Nog and Glirdan.

#289,
"I trust Pitchie more or less, but don't really want to vote him. He seems to be getting enough votes to be safe for toDay - I think I'll leave it at that and vote someone I don't want to die but doesn't have many votes."

- At the time of her #289, Pitch had received two votes. Not entirely sure how that speaks of safety.

#305
Doesn't mind if Brin, Rune or Form go. Is considering voting for Nerwen, as well as Pitch or Fea for innocentishness or Wilwa for Simon.

#309Would like to see Rune go over Glirdan.

#314 Replies back to Brin. Says she would like to see Brin stay, even though earlier she'd stated that she wouldn't mind seeing Brin go.

#331

Trust:
Lottie
Nog
Zil
Glirdy
Fea
Wilwa

Unsure, lean innocent:
Nerwen
Formy

Unsure, lean evil:
?Brinn
Izzy

Suspect:
Steve
Rune


- Glirdan and Wilwa moved from the unsure-lean-innocent list, to the trust list. Form moved from the unsure-lean-evil list to the unsure-lean-innocent list.


#339.
Responds to Eonwe asking her why she posted her #215 list.
"*sigh* I did have suspicions of them at the time. I also had justification. What's happened toDay (with the exception of Formy, Wilwa, and Fea, who look better now) hasn't changed that much."

- How do Form, Wilwa and Fea look better?
------------------------------------

I'm still.. confused as to why she suspects Rune, and to some extent Eonwe. I don't think there were any explanations as to why people moved on her list, or as to their placement.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

I'm still.. confused as to why [Loslote] suspects Rune, and to some extent Eonwe. I don't think there were any explanations as to why people moved on her list, or as to their placement.

Along those lines, I'm curious as to why, when I commented on many accepting Form as an innocent without any moddess confirmation:

Originally Posted by me

Seems a lot were quick to assume so.

Loslote's response was this:

Originally Posted by Loslote

It was not an assumption, it was a conclusion drawn after analysis looking at both possibilities. It does look like he's innocent, though.

But now, with respect to Form she's moved back to suspecting him:

Originally Posted by Loslote

Formy and Wilwa look pretty bad to me, but I don't *want* to suspect Wilwa. She seems so helpful...although thinking about it, I can't remember why, she just seems good. Huh.

[Nerwen]

Back again... I had to go out before.

Interesting points on Lottie from Izzy and Zil. She's also had both known wolves vote for her– although, with everyone having four votes, and her being very active this game, that may not mean anything.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

But now, with respect to Form she's moved back to suspecting him:

Well, to be fair, that was after analysing Glirdan's posts– and yet, I can't see that her analysis supports her conclusions. So Glirdan wavered about Form... so what? (In a similar vein, why the completely opposite judgements on Wilwa and Nog? Lottie?)

–Not that I think we should start treating Form as an absolutely known innocent either. Any game devised by the mind of Sally is liable to have some strange twists in it...

[wilwarin538]

Quick responses, then off to school. Should be around randomly throughout the day since I don't listen in class ^_^

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

*snuggles myself, for I am the best and the snuggliest*

agrees

Originally Posted by Loslote

1. If it wasn't a Ranger kill...are we blessed with really lazy werewolves who forgot to send in a kill or something? If so, my thanks, Wolves.

OR, our Moddess is Sally. Whatever the reason it's just really awesome. Perhaps because there was a revenge kill that was an innocent?

Originally Posted by Loslote

[
Formy and Wilwa look pretty bad to me, but I don't *want* to suspect Wilwa. She seems so helpful...although thinking about it, I can't remember why, she just seems good. Huh.

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

Wilwa, you said that you wanted to trust Glirdan, but said you'd stay neutral on him; yet earlier had stated that you felt good about him. So how does a neutral get a vote from you?
Also, you ended up voting for Rune. Why him over Nog and Loslote whom had been higher on your trust list? Whenyou'd stated that your last would go to Nog, Loslote, or Glirdan.

K, to answer both of these. Glirdan and I always suspect each other for some screwed up reason, and when we do we are always wrong. So I was trying not to suspect him because I figured it was just out of habit and nothing concrete (I think he was attempting to do the same thing, and now I see that he was probably just trying to get my trust, and I'm angry that I didn't just go after him like always). It's also his first real game in forever (since he died first day on the last one) and I kinda wanted him to stay around for a little while. I also didn't want all my votes yesterDay to go to all the same people as the Day before, and Nog and Lottie seemed like they were going to be fine, they were getting a fair amount of trust and I believe already had a few votes (Lottie also had that bonus vote). So I decided to vote for some people who didn't have too many, and who I didn't necessarily want to see lynched.

As I see it our votes don't all have to go to people we completely trust. If mine had I probably would have voted for all the same people I had the Day before and what fun is that? So I think some votes can go for people that you don't necessarily *trust* but also don't really suspect and want to have lynched. Just the way I see it.

I'll be back in a couple of hours, once I get to school.

x'ed with Nerwen

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Well, to be fair, that was after analysing Glirdan's posts– and yet, I can't see that her analysis supports her conclusions. So Glirdan wavered about Form... so what? (In a similar vein, why the completely opposite judgements on Wilwa and Nog? Lottie?)

Well, you're right in that the flip-flop came after she looked at Glirdan, but she doesn't explain in that analysis why Form looks bad again.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

–Not that I think we should start treating Form as an absolutely known innocent either. Any game devised by the mind of Sally is liable to have some strange twists in it...

No, he doesn't get a free pass, even though I'm leaning toward thinking him more innocent than not. It's still odd that Nog and Rune were so quick to vote for him after the narrative in which he killed Pitch, though.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I am afraid that today will be a quiet one for me, I will be online now and then again to vote arround midnight.

I for one did not assume Form to be a proven innocent, but I did not suspect him and the whole "lover" scenario did not make him look any worse. I did not vote for him at first as it would not have been wise strategically. . . (Form, Brinn and Me all being tied on 0 votes)

As for people voting for people low on their "trust-list". . . is that not a normal part of the game? I assume that some votes will be cast for simons and others will be to protect people from lynching. (sometimes you protect people you don't particular trust)

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Fea's been the amusing innocent the whole game - has anyone ever suspected her? I don't think so. A very safe vote. This is not to say I suspect her. Actually, I'm pretty sure she *is* innocent, which is why the fact that Wilwa and Glirdy both voted for her is a bit suspicious.

I'm confused about why people voting for somebody you're pretty sure is innocent is suspicious. We are supposed to vote for people we think are innocent, right? So what's this suspicion for?

[wilwarin538]

Fea, I think what she's saying is that you are a safe vote since so many vote for you, so it makes Glirdy and I look bad like we're just voting for you cause you're "safe", which a wolf would want to do. Which is odd, cause why does it only look bad for me, and not all the others who voted for Fea (since there are obvisously alot, considering she's been Simon twice)? So I get what you're saying Lottie, but I also don't completely understand it. Yes, that makes sense.


Whether the whole Lover Revenge Kill thing had happened or not I would still find Form innocent. Just because I don't get any bad vibes at all, and the whole Lover thing makes me feel better about him, since *most* of the time Lovers are both innocents. I of course could be sorely mistaken, it has been known to happen coughglirdancough.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

(In a similar vein, why the completely opposite judgements on Wilwa and Nog? Lottie?)

I am also curious about this, since Glirdy was far more adament about Nog's innocence then he was for mine.

oh, and

Originally Posted by Sally

Glirdan was lynched. As Diller, he had plans to rule you all.

anyone have any idea what this might mean???

Talk people, I'm in class here bored out of my mind, I need some action!

I'm gonna go make a new list, some people have shifted around a bit....

[Formendacil]

Just in case any of you were unaware of this yet--it's really quite difficult to get back into the swing of a WW game when you've effectively missed Days 1 and 2. You remember what I said back on Day 1 about mixing up deadlines? Well... I agreed to play because I thought the deadline Sally gave me was 10:00 my time, not, as it in fact is, 8:00. You saw what happened as a result of this on Day 1... well, Day 2 was about the same. I was lucky I got back in time to vote at all. As far as the Lover Revenge Kill goes, we're talking about a process that involved Sally texting me while I was gone for the weekend, me not texting back until we were well into Day 2, and I had still not seen what had happened--I only knew that my beloved Nienna was dead, and I had to lash out in fury.

(By the way, I'm very grateful indeed to my dead Hunter-Lover for imploring Sally to give me my kill mid-Day, given how low a profile I was proving to have yesterDay.)

Anyway, there was definitely a question of "who to kill?" and I was working off a hazy memory of Day 1... while driving through heavy winds up the "interstate" (we don't actually have interstates in Canada, but this expresses better for an American what I mean than "highway"). The last I had talked with my beautiful Nienna, she had been hunting Zil and Mira--in that order.

Ergo, my village, we have a Known Innocent: Zil wasn't killed, though he was first pick. At least, this is how Nienna and I understood it. So even if you won't accept that I am a Known Innocent (though as near as I can tell from Sally's poem, I seem to meet the qualifications of the One Hit Wonder), I hope you'll recognise that Inziladun is.

Anyway...

Since Zil was innocent and Mira was dead, I was out of people to vent my distraught rage against. So...

Pitchwife wasn't exactly random, but he was a shot in the dark... which obviously went awry.

And that's the story of my foiled, mad attempt to revenge myself for the death of the Most Beautiful Hunter in the World. The world is now a sad, grey, empty place without Nienna! Alas, alas for our love!

[wilwarin538]

My current list.

Trust
Fea
Form

Mostly Trust
Rune
Nerwen

Mostly Trusted YesterDay, not as sure now
Nog - moved down a notch cause of Glirdan trusting him SO much, but that's about it, nothing really bad from what I see
Lottie - a few things she said toDay seem to suggest she's stretching a bit now, but I've trusted her so far so I don't like fully suspect her as of yet

Sorta Trust
Brinn
Inzil

Don't Really Trust
Izzy
Eonwe

I am now in an important class so I'm gonna disappear for about an hour and a half and try to pay attention to the neurotransmitters and proteins and myelin...not that there's much going on here anyway, considering I just triple posted over a 1 hour period....

x'ed with Form, yay!!! action!

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Formy

Ergo, my village, we have a Known Innocent: Zil wasn't killed, though he was first pick. At least, this is how Nienna and I understood it.

That's how I understood it aswell. Cool beans!

Leaving for real now.

[Isabellkya]

Yes there is going to be voting for people whom aren't on our to trust lists, but whom we may or may not want to protect.

However, I don't think it is an outrageous or bothersome thought/request - that people put game related reasons with their votes. Or some statement saying why they are voting x person over y person. Otherwise it leaves a giant gaping door open, for people to not commit to their thoughts. As well, as people being able to vote for someone whom they perhaps think is evil - and won't be called on it.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Maybe there's a secret special role that's immortal, or something.

Moddess, do I have to use up my votes from yesterDay, or do I still have 4 as usual?

EDIT:X'd with Brinn.

Just use your four like normal. *nods*

Originally Posted by Wilwa, re: Glirdan

anyone have any idea what this might mean???

Look at my and Phantom's narration. That'll give you a clue. (It'll make a lot more sense when I tidy up Mira and Nienna's narration and get it posted, which will happen soon I promise.)

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Just in case any of you were unaware of this yet--it's really quite difficult to get back into the swing of a WW game when you've effectively missed Days 1 and 2. You remember what I said back on Day 1 about mixing up deadlines? Well... I agreed to play because I thought the deadline Sally gave me was 10:00 my time, not, as it in fact is, 8:00. You saw what happened as a result of this on Day 1... well, Day 2 was about the same. I was lucky I got back in time to vote at all. As far as the Lover Revenge Kill goes, we're talking about a process that involved Sally texting me while I was gone for the weekend, me not texting back until we were well into Day 2, and I had still not seen what had happened--I only knew that my beloved Nienna was dead, and I had to lash out in fury.

(By the way, I'm very grateful indeed to my dead Hunter-Lover for imploring Sally to give me my kill mid-Day, given how low a profile I was proving to have yesterDay.)

Anyway, there was definitely a question of "who to kill?" and I was working off a hazy memory of Day 1... while driving through heavy winds up the "interstate" (we don't actually have interstates in Canada, but this expresses better for an American what I mean than "highway"). The last I had talked with my beautiful Nienna, she had been hunting Zil and Mira--in that order.

Ergo, my village, we have a Known Innocent: Zil wasn't killed, though he was first pick. At least, this is how Nienna and I understood it. So even if you won't accept that I am a Known Innocent (though as near as I can tell from Sally's poem, I seem to meet the qualifications of the One Hit Wonder), I hope you'll recognise that Inziladun is.

Anyway...

Since Zil was innocent and Mira was dead, I was out of people to vent my distraught rage against. So...

Pitchwife wasn't exactly random, but he was a shot in the dark... which obviously went awry.

And that's the story of my foiled, mad attempt to revenge myself for the death of the Most Beautiful Hunter in the World. The world is now a sad, grey, empty place without Nienna! Alas, alas for our love!

Yeah, sorry about that, dear. My internet went out as I was trying to PM you and I wanted to make sure you had time do think of who to kill, etc. And then Nienna woke me up in the middle of a really nice coma to insist that I put up your narration and stuff. Be lucky that she was paranoid you'd die, or I'd have kept sleeping.

Originally Posted by Wilwa, re: Nienna's list

That's how I understood it aswell. Cool beans!

Leaving for real now.

That is in fact how it works. Kudos.


And now I need some lunch. Emptying my PM box right now so if you've got any questions feel free to PM me and I'll get back to you ASAP.

[Eönwë]

So there was no kill. This game seems to be going better than most... I mean it's only Day 3 and 2 wolves are dead, compared to only 2 ordos and a hunter.

I think the no-kill this leaves us with a few options:

1. The wolves forgot to vote.
2. The wolves did not get their kill because there was a lover kill.
3. The One Hit Wonder affected the wolves' kill in some way- either the target was the One Hit Wonder or their powers affected the voting in some way- remember that they don't know who they were:

Now do not forget this special role
For it is not known to the one who it holds

4. There is some other special role that was hidden.
5. Sally is being Sallyish- anything is possible!

As the One Hit Wonder is good as is said in The Epic Poem "them you should not fear; Their power is great, and their logic is clear" and if we assume that if there are any secret roles they are good (as the start of the a quarter of the village was werewolf) this leaves us with a ratio of 9:2 (goodies:wolves), which means we have 3 Days to get a wolf.

[Inziladun]

With Izzy's last second vote for Brinn, which, as she would have thought, tied her with Glirdan, I'm quite comfortable with Izzy now.

Let's look at her vote tally from yesterDay.

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

Votes as they were made, so ... kind of messy. In a sense.

SimonFea -> Wilwa (2)
Pitch -> Eonwe, Loslote
Loslote -> Zil, Glirdan, Nog
Pitch -> Nerwen, Fea
Fea -> Wilwa (3), Izzy
Glirdan -> Wilwa (4), Nog (2)
Wilwa -> Pitch, Fea (2)
Zil -> Nog (3), Pitch
Brin -> Izzy (2)
Fea -> Nerwen (2)
Wilwa -> Form
Rune -> Fea (3), Wilwa (5)
Nog -> Rune, Zil (2), Loslote (2)
Wilwa -> Rune (2), Glirdan (2)
Glirdan -> Fea (4)
Nog -> Form (2)
Rune -> Form (3)
Eonwe -> Nerwen (3), Fea (5)
Nerwen -> Brin, Izzy (3)
Fea -> Eonwe (2)
Izzy -> Nerwen (4), Zil (3)
Glirdan -> Loslote (3)
Zil -> Nerwen (5)
Eonwe -> Zil (4)
Eonwe -> Nog (4)
Form -> Zil (5), Wilwa (6), Rune (3), Izzy (4)
Izzy -> Brin (2), Rune (4)
Zil -> Brin (3)
Song/Poem -> Fea (6), Loslote (4), Eonwe (3)

Glirdan 2
Brin 3
Eonwe 3
Form 3
Izzy 4
Loslote 4
Nog 4
Rune 4
Nerwen 5
Zil 5
Fea 6
Wilwa 6

I'm noting this:

Loslote -> Zil, Glirdan, Nog

this,

Glirdan -> Wilwa (4), Nog (2)
Glirdan -> Fea (4)
Glirdan -> Loslote (3)

and this

Nog -> Rune, Zil (2), Loslote (2)
Nog -> Form (2)

Here's what strikes me:

A known wolf voted for Nog and Loslote.
Loslote voted for the wolf and Nog.
Nog voted for Loslote.

Granted, when everyone has four votes, coincidences can happen. But can all that be happenstance?

x/d with Eönwë

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I'm off to work. I'll be back about an hour and a half before DL when I'll decide what to do with my Simon-ness for toDay. I'm open to suggestions.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

A known wolf voted for Nog and Loslote.
Loslote voted for the wolf and Nog.
Nog voted for Loslote.

Granted, when everyone has four votes, coincidences can happen. But can all that be happenstance?

I think you have a very good point.

[Formendacil]

It's be interesting to know what the One-Hit Wonder can do--or could do, rather. If the One-Hit Wonder could save themself, then we would have another Known Innocent if they came out.

On the other hand, if they could save someone else, ala a Ranger, then if they came out we could have two more Known Innocents. However, I doubt this scenario is the case, since the game has an actual Ranger.

On the third hand (heh--I saw reference to those earlier), perhaps it's a blanket injunction--in which case I'm not sure we could have a Known Innocent... though the pandemonium that ensued could be interesting.

All that this really proves is that not putting all the roles and rules out in the open sparks more talk than anything else.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Granted, when everyone has four votes, coincidences can happen. But can all that be happenstance?

Well, just looking quickly at yesterDay I can see:

Glirdan -> Wilwa (4), Nog (2)
Wilwa -> Pitch, Fea (2)
Wilwa -> Form
Rune -> Fea (3), Wilwa (5)
Wilwa -> Rune (2), Glirdan (2)
Glirdan -> Fea (4)
Rune -> Form (3)
Glirdan -> Loslote (3)


Wilwa votes Rune and Glirdywolf
Rune votes Wilwa
Glirdan votes Wilwa

I admit that it's not as strong, but I'm just saying that these things do happen, so I don't think we can base an argument solely on this- if you do find something suspicious, then this is a good thing to strengthen it, but I don't think it's evidence enough to be incriminating.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

It's be interesting to know what the One-Hit Wonder can do--or could do, rather. If the One-Hit Wonder could save themself, then we would have another Known Innocent if they came out.

On the other hand, if they could save someone else, ala a Ranger, then if they came out we could have two more Known Innocents. However, I doubt this scenario is the case, since the game has an actual Ranger.

On the third hand (heh--I saw reference to those earlier), perhaps it's a blanket injunction--in which case I'm not sure we could have a Known Innocent... though the pandemonium that ensued could be interesting.

All that this really proves is that not putting all the roles and rules out in the open sparks more talk than anything else.

*enjoys*

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

It's be interesting to know what the One-Hit Wonder can do--or could do, rather. If the One-Hit Wonder could save themself, then we would have another Known Innocent if they came out.

They don't know who they are as I understand it: "Now do not forget this special role For it is not known to the one who it holds". Does that not mean that they don't know they have this role?

And didn't you say this earlier Form?:

Originally Posted by Form

though as near as I can tell from Sally's poem, I seem to meet the qualifications of the One Hit Wonder

Which you are, I guess, not sticking with since now you're talking about the One Hit Wonder revealing. And by the way, I don't agree with it because in Sally's poem it also says that: "them you should not fear; Their power is great, and their logic is clear". Which I doubt she would say if it was possible for them to kill an innocent, like what happened with the revenge kill. So I don't think you meet the qualifications.

So from what I can tell either the One Hit Wonder is what happened last Night, or it hasn't happened yet.

Originally Posted by Inzil

A known wolf voted for Nog and Loslote.
Loslote voted for the wolf and Nog.
Nog voted for Loslote.

Granted, when everyone has four votes, coincidences can happen. But can all that be happenstance?

This is interesting, but like you say coincidences are bound to happen, especially when 16 people have 4 votes. I think the further into the game we get, the more information we have, the more concrete this type of analysis will be. Not that it should be completely neglected, but it probably isn't something that can stand on it's own, it would need other things to back it up (like Eonwe just said).

x'ed with Sally, who I know has an evil grin on her face right now and is possibly cackling...

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Which you are, I guess, not sticking with since now you're talking about the One Hit Wonder revealing. And by the way, I don't agree with it because in Sally's poem it also says that: "them you should not fear; Their power is great, and their logic is clear". Which I doubt she would say if it was possible for them to kill an innocent, like what happened with the revenge kill. So I don't think you meet the qualifications.

Yes, I originally thought I might be, because I was skimming through the poem looking for proof that as the lover, I was a Good Guy... that was the closest I got. It didn't even occur to me that the One Hit Wonder probably made last night happen. Hence the later turn around--I knew I didn't do that, whatever else I may have done.

[Eönwë]

Ok, so since there's nothing going on now I think a list is in order:

Trust:

No-one. It gets harder to form a definite opinion either way as the game progresses.


Seem Innocent:
Inzil- Well, Formy says that he's innocent and from what Sally's said it seems that he is. He's seemed relatively innocent throughout anyway, so it's not too hard for me to believe.

Not likely to be evil:
Form- Well he might be a wolf, but then being paired with a hunter would be quite strange. I don't know. He hasn't really done anything suspicious, but then again he's said little so I don't know.

Fea- I would have added her to the the "worried about" list, but she's always like this so I don't think her being on the top of everyone's list makes her any more suspicious. And yes, she does look innocent.


Not sure:

Izzy- Well, she's started posting a lot again and this is good. Yet she hasn't really told what she thinks of everyone. On the other had, what she does say seems innocent. And we all know how sharp she is, so I don't want her to go, at least not yet.

Lottie- Not sure about her. She was in the list below for being constantly on the top of people's lists, but since she's been attacked toDay, it makes her seem less 'untouchable'. As for her actually being good or evil, I'm not sure. She posts a lot, but this doesn't make her seem either.

Rune- Very tricksy. I'm not sure what I think about him. He's not afraid to go against the crowd, but I don't know how bold he is as a wolf.


Worried about- look fair but feel foul (or at least the text equivalent):

Wilwa- Seems too perfect. Everyone says she's innocent, but without any good reason. She has kept a relatively low profile, not saying anything that's too against the general feeling, and is just careful in general. She seems to have been at the top of everyone's lists the whole time, which is quite disconcerting. But she may actually just be a very careful innocent, I don't know.

Brinn- I'm very confused about her. She hasn't seemed like an ordo so far, but yesterDay with the votes that made me think she must be. However, that may have just been a double bluff to try and get people to vote for her while she was actually a very worried wolf in reality.

Nerwen- She's also seemed innocent throughout. She has made quite a few good points here and there, also seems to have maintained a low profile, and stayed in the top half (but near the middle) of most people's lists, which is the place that has worried me most in this game.


Suspicious of:

Nog- Started off loud, but has got quieter over the course of the game. After the first Day when all the attention was on him, he seems to be trying to sneak into the background while still leaching off everyone's previous trust for him.

[Nogrod]

It was a longer day I thought it would be but I'm finally back...

Just a few comments after a quick read.

I see Brinn has a point: Izzy and Inzil could very well be innocents looking at their voting. But I must say there is a small "but" involved and that is Brinn's innocence.

If Brinn is a wolf it meant that two wolves were facing a lynch and I could see why the third wolf would rather have Brinn around than Glirdy who was clearly arousing suspicion left and right.

Looking at the "independent" (in relation to Brinn's testimony) report by Form that Nienna was hunting first Inzil and only second Mira, it would talk on behalf of Inzil's innocence.

Well enough for me for the time being, as the chance these both claims could be untrue is that we have now three wolves instead of two (it would mean we have had five wolves in a village of just 16 and I'd say that would be really unfair from Sally!) - or a very acute cobbler (which is possible even if not that believable).

So I'd believe Inzil to be innocent.

I'd also say that either Brinn and Izzy are innocents or then they both are wolves.


Coming to the issue of Glirdy then...

He was openly "trusting me" from the D1, up to being annoying - and thus screaming a wolf to me. And I think I made that clear that I thought his "rubbing me the right way" was quite the wrong way with me. So do you really think that if I was a wolf I would have just told him during the Night "oh, keep up the good work the next Day as well"? I mean really.

Lottie's vote for Glirdan is an interesting one. I have kind of liked her reasonableness thus far but her vote on Glirdy came quite out of the blue. He was in her "unsure, lean innocent" group in a list earlier yesterDay, but I didn't find any straight comments on him (didn't scroll through every page). If there was some reason, especially a reason you stated Lottie, would you enlighten us? That sure makes one wonder as I think it was clear there were not to many votes coming for trust to Glirdy yesterDay - and making an early vote for that as well (yeah, superbowl-party is a good reason, but still).

I'm more or less undecided on wilwa's vote for Glirdy. On the one hand I can understand the relationship-story, on the other I can't see why wouldn't they capitulate on that if they had a chance...

Now correct me if I miised something, but at my quick skim I found the following.


Voting for Glirdy

D1
wilwa
Brinn
Mira (wolf)

D2
Lottie
wilwa


One thing we'd need to assess as well is when the voting was done eg. what was the situation, the general mood looking at survival of this or that person etc. We're not going to make educated guesses without these considerations - like many people vote for x as y who they think is very good seems to have a host of votes enough / wolves might feel a need to vote for their companion in one situation while in another they wouldn't.

Okay. Now I need to take a break...


EDIT: no wonder... x'd with a host...

[satansaloser2005]

Not possibly cackling, Wilwa dear. Definitely cackling.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Suspicious of:

Nog- Started off loud, but has got quieter over the course of the game. After the first Day when all the attention was on him, he seems to be trying to sneak into the background while still leaching off everyone's previous trust for him.

Heh, did you believe I was going to be silent the whole Day and tried to sniff the wind "the right way"?

Sorry, my day was full and I only got online now.

I see some pretty heavy opportunism here... and I'm not liking it.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Heh, did you believe I was going to be silent the whole Day and tried to sniff the wind "the right way"?

Sorry, my day was full and I only got online now.

I see some pretty heavy opportunism here... and I'm not liking it.

Ok, I admit that I was wrong. It turns out you posted 14 times yesterDay and 13 the Day before. However, you have to admit that you've become less controversial since Day 1, and actually you're not your usual relentless self. It might be because you have less time now, but I'm used to you being much more controversial and aggressive, so I was a bit surprised.

[wilwarin538]

So I have a thought about the Glirdan lynch. I think the two remaining wolves may more likely be in the group of people who voted earlier, rather then those closer to the end. Because considering they had already lost 1 wolf if a few saw that Glirdan was in a lot of danger I would think that they would try to protect him more if they had a chance. So those who voted closer to the end of the Day and didn't vote for him when it was clear he was in danger, look a bit better to me.

So, copying this from Izzy:

SimonFea -> Wilwa (2)
Pitch -> Eonwe, Loslote
Loslote -> Zil, Glirdan, Nog
Pitch -> Nerwen, Fea
Fea -> Wilwa (3), Izzy
Glirdan -> Wilwa (4), Nog (2)
Wilwa -> Pitch, Fea (2)
Zil -> Nog (3), Pitch
Brin -> Izzy (2)
Fea -> Nerwen (2)
Wilwa -> Form
Rune -> Fea (3), Wilwa (5)
Nog -> Rune, Zil (2), Loslote (2)
Wilwa -> Rune (2), Glirdan (2)
Glirdan -> Fea (4)
Nog -> Form (2)
Rune -> Form (3)
Eonwe -> Nerwen (3), Fea (5)
Nerwen -> Brin, Izzy (3)
Fea -> Eonwe (2)
Izzy -> Nerwen (4), Zil (3)
Glirdan -> Loslote (3)
Zil -> Nerwen (5)
Eonwe -> Zil (4)
Eonwe -> Nog (4)
Form -> Zil (5), Wilwa (6), Rune (3), Izzy (4)
Izzy -> Brin (2), Rune (4)
Zil -> Brin (3)
Song/Poem -> Fea (6), Loslote (4), Eonwe (3)

So the last vote for Glirdan was by me, about halfway through the votes. At that point he was tied for 2 with a fair number of people. The point where he seemed to be in the most danger would be about around his own vote for Lottie, since by then alot of the 2 people were bumped up to 3 and he was still at 2.

So this makes Zil look quite good, he voted for someone who already had 4 votes, and then his last one chose Brinn over Glirdan, so there seemed to be no attempt on his part to help Glirdan. (could mean differently for him if Brinn is a wolf though)

Eonwe also looks fairly good, voting for 2 people who were at 3 votes at that point, so also seeming to not put any effort in protecting Glirdan.

Form also voted for people who already had a good amount of votes. Izzy too pretty much. So those 4 especially I see didn't really try at all to protect Glirdan when it was a good chance that he could be lynched. This of course doesn't clear them, they could have just thought it was too risky to put themselves out there to protect him, since it would likely draw attention to them the following Day. But still, for me atleast I think it makes them look a bit better.

So really the ones who look bad are me and Lottie, since we are the only 2 who voted for him. I know I'm innocent. Lottie I'm not so sure of, it could be a notch against her, I don't really know. I want to trust her, but there all a few little things that make me uneasy. I likely won't vote for her toDay.

So basically I think the wolves would more likely be in the earlier voters, since at that point it is pretty unclear who's gonna go (since a ton of people were all tied for 1 and then 2 votes) and so they may not have thought Glirdan would be in danger, and therefore used their votes on other packmates perhaps instead.

Anyway, off to do some studying, big big big test on Thursday...

I'll be back in a few hours..

x'ed with Eonwe

[Eönwë]

Ok, well I can't survive on 4 hours of sleep like yesterDay, so I'm going to try to vote earlier toDay.

I'll start with:

++Inzil

[Isabellkya]

Just a note, then I'm eating lunch, then I'm coming back.

Eonwe, I posted my thoughts on everyone towards the end of yesterDay. Just got home, so haven't posted a revised list toDay.

Wilwa, I was for the opposite actually. I stated that I wanted to see Loslote or Glirdan go over Brin. I think there was another candidate that was in danger of being lynched when I made the statement, but can't recall who - I think it was Eonwe. My last two votes were made with an extra thought. I was trying to boost other people whom were in danger up, so it wouldn't turn into a massive tie. That it would at the worst, end up in a two/three way tie with Glirdan being one of them.