WW LXXX: It's About Time!

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Night 5 - could be anybody

I don't think it could have been anybody. Look at the very end of yesterDay. Sally got way into supporting Skip there at the end. I don't think it's within the realm of possibility that he dreamed of her after that. Far more likely that he dreamed of one of the people he suspected.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Yes, and it is rather weird how sure they were, even though he had been suspicious– yet, it seems like a very gratuitous bit of wolf-on-wolfing. Sally, was the one heavily pushing the idea that Greenie's innocence would prove Eomer's guilt, while Lottie practically dragged him to the gallows. Recall that all Wolf 3 had to do yesterDay was keep Eomer and the cobbler alive.

I just wanted to say, this gave me a mental image of Sally pushing and me dragging Eomer to the gallows, him dragging his feet and protesting the whole way. Hilarious.

So: "When you have eliminated the impossible..." Except not quite, because none of this is completely impossible. But I'd say– subject to revision– that the least improbable explanation is that you, Agan, are the cobbler, and Pitch is Wolf 3. If you made up your mind skip wasn't a wolf, you'd naturally want to steer the lynch his way, which you were trying to do yesterDay and the Day before. Meanwhile, on Day 2, you gave no strong indication you'd vote Eomer:

This makes a lot of sense to me. Pitchie did turn into Mr. Agreeable partway through the game, and even at the beginning, he wasn't very aggressive.

Also, [whisper]I'm not really here.[/whisper]

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Recall that all Wolf 3 had to do yesterDay was keep Eomer and the cobbler alive.

That's true, but in the end it comes down to whether they wanted to do it the quicker & riskier way, or the slower & safer. Eomer was suspected so heavily, it's hard to tell if the wolves found trying to keep him alive worth the risk - especially with the seer still around who, for all they knew, might have dreamed of one of them.

If you made up your mind skip wasn't a wolf, you'd naturally want to steer the lynch his way, which you were trying to do yesterDay and the Day before. Meanwhile, on Day 2, you gave no strong indication you'd vote Eomer:

I was pretty sure he wasn't a wolf but I was nearly positive he was the cobbler. What is obvious in hindsight but never crossed my mind while he was still alive was that he was purposefully dropping cobbler hints so the wolves wouldn't attack him. As for Eomer, I figured my chances of saving wilwa were the best if I voted for him because both sally and Pitch had said they could do it, and I really didn't want wilwa to die. If Pitch had just been trying to make himself look better, I would've expected him to continue pursuing Eomer later. Of course I might be wrong, of course it's possible they were wolves together and decided to try to keep alive, but to me it makes more sense that the last wolf tried to make as much as possible out of Eomer's demise. Gah I wish Pitch were here (but I understand if he can't make it)...

Originally Posted by Loslote

I don't think it's within the realm of possibility that he dreamed of her after that. Far more likely that he dreamed of one of the people he suspected.

Logically, yes. But the thing is, we can't know what crossed his mind while reading the thread during the night. I am okay with drawing conclusions about his dreams from his posts, but I'm not ready to presume he didn't dream of somebody just because he didn't suspect her at the end of the day. And I don't know what to make of it that everybody seems to be pressing it... I'm really not too fond of Lottie at the moment, but I don't know why she'd be defending sally, either, if she's a wolf... Unless she thinks sally is the cobbler - it could also be the other way round though. Argh.

Pitchie did turn into Mr. Agreeable partway through the game, and even at the beginning, he wasn't very aggressive.

What's this thing with Mr. Agreeable? Is he always very agreeable as a wolf?

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by sally

Unfortunately, we can't afford to give Pitch a pass toDay even with his family circumstances, so if he doesn't return I don't want to see anyone using that as an excuse to let him pass. (By the same token, I don't want to attack him. It's just that letting him live based on meta circumstances is not the most prudent game move at this juncture. I think he would understand.

Don't worry, I do of course understand and I wouldn't expect anything else. But I'm here now and will be (although maybe intermittently) for the next couple of hours.

As for skip, blargh, I misread him totally. Anyway, he did a good job ridding us of two wolves. RIP.
I'd have preferred for him to be alive toDay and explain what exactly those shadowy and suspicious activities of mine were that he referred to yesterDay. One thing I know is that he hadn't dreamed me, because I happen not to be a wolf; but even if I were, he couldn't, because of this:

Originally Posted by toDay's narration

What, was I sleepwalking? He thought. It had been a long time since he'd done that. And now coming back to him was the dream he'd just had, a dream of one of the people in this house being a soulless killer.

The last one! he said to himself. How would he go about telling the others? All they had to do was get rid of this one and they'd be free to await the opening of the door to the outside in peace.

Unless I'm completely mis- or overinterpreting this, it says that skip dreamed the last wolf last Night just before he was killed, not earlier.

As for who our last wolf could be - at first glance I'd say Agan doesn't look too good now, except I've no idea what to make of her D2 vote for Eomer if it's her. But as to the following:

I only picked up cobbler hints. If I was a wolf and thought he was the cobbler, I wouldn't have tried to lynch him. If I was a wolf and thought he was the seer, he would've died a bit earlier. As it happens, I'm innocent and thought he was the cobbler.

Apart from the obligatory "I wouldn't do this if I was a wolf", what if you'd thought he was neither cobbler nor seer but just an ordo who happened to behave sufficiently cobblerish to make a tasty lynch?

But with the village shrunk to this size, I'm past blindly trusting anybody.

And by the way:

Originally Posted by Lottie

Pitchie did turn into Mr. Agreeable partway through the game

Would you mind giving some evidence? Otherwise this looks just like a standard prefab reason-to-suspect-Pitch-whatever-he-is. It's getting stale.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Agan

What's this thing with Mr. Agreeable? Is he always very agreeable as a wolf?

I'm a bit surprised nobody's told you yet. People find me 'too agreeable' or something similar at least once in almost every game. Greenie coined the name in Legate's last game (when I was indeed a wolf), and it stuck; but it happened before and after, too.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Apart from the obligatory "I wouldn't do this if I was a wolf", what if you'd thought he was neither cobbler nor seer but just an ordo who happened to behave sufficiently cobblerish to make a tasty lynch?

Of course that would have been possible as well, especially after I said that the more people try to look like the cobbler, the less likely the wolves spot her... Hindsight 20-20. But I do tend to be a bit single-minded when I pursue people.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I'm a bit surprised nobody's told you yet. People find me 'too agreeable' or something similar at least once in almost every game. Greenie coined the name in Legate's last game (when I was indeed a wolf), and it stuck; but it happened before and after, too.

Actually, I have first-hand information - I know I've talked with you about it. I would just have liked to hear how Lottie explained using it against you... And still do. Because at least I am under the impression it's not only when you're a wolf that you're agreeable, but even if it was, I don't think you've looked too agreeable so far.

Okay we start roleplaying now which means I won't be around as much. Will check the thread every now and then, and will most likely be here around deadline, though.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Would you mind giving some evidence? Otherwise this looks just like a standard prefab reason-to-suspect-Pitch-whatever-he-is. It's getting stale.

It's not a reason to suspect you; it's shorthand for the general impression I have of you. You're right; it's certianly no basis for a vote, and would only fly as basis for suspicion on Day 1. Here's some real reasoning:

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Actually, I have first-hand information - I know I've talked with you about it. I would just have liked to hear how Lottie explained using it against you... And still do. Because at least I am under the impression it's not only when you're a wolf that you're agreeable, but even if it was, I don't think you've looked too agreeable so far.

Actually, as an innocent, Pitchie's much more in the thick of things, suspecting people with the best of them.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Conclusion: Inconsistency between suspicions and vote in Agan's case, and wilwa could be either/or; rest looks decent for Day 1.

After analyzing the Day 1 votes for people other than TEWie, he concludes with mild suspicion towards Agan and Wilwa, neither of which could be his packmate, and concludes that everyone else looks 'decent'. Hardly incriminating, but it does look like he's treading a little bit softly.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Mine as well. There's something going on here.


You mean your post about how she was so very inoffensive and careful to soften her suspicions wasn't a subtle accusation?

(Aside to Lottie: How does it feel to be Miss Agreeable for a change?)

Here he agrees with me that there's something off about Eomer and Skip's exchange. He banters/suspects Eomer slightly here in such a way as could look like wolf-on-wolf, or could be entirely innocent.

(Aside to Pitchie: The novelty wore off. )

Unfortunately, I don't have time to go through all of his posts. This is just the Day that stood out to me most. As it is, I wouldn't particularly suspect Pitchie on his own, but he makes the top two most suspected list simply because I don't think Skip would have dreamt of anyone besides Agan, Pitchie, and me. And I know who I am - that is, not the last wolf. My vote will go to one of those two.

[Pitchwife]

Some thoughts about sally (admittedly fragmentary, not even attempting a full analysis of our Queen of the Post Count):

Her strange insistence on Day 3 that

Originally Posted by sally#221

either Eomer or Greenie HAS to be a wolf

has already been commented on. Granted that Eomer looked a lot furrier after Greenie was revealed as innocent, the way he'd been after her, but given that sally supported Greenie's lynch, and supposing she was Eomer's packmate, she would have planned ahead and prepared to distance herself from him afterwards, wouldn't she?

Her almost-fake-reveal yesterDay just before DL (#374) looks very much like an attempt by an innocent to protect the seer by baiting the wolf to kill her instead... only the pun about 'baited breath' in her post-DL post #381 undoes it. And a wolf trying to make herself look good would of course have known she wasn't really in danger to get killed.

Then there's her first post of toDay, the farewell to skip, which is very sallyish, only, I don't know, somehow a bit overdone in it's tear-drowned way of saying "Of course I knew he was the seer all along, I so would have liked to save him (only I didn't), I'll avenge him", read: "I'm so totally obviously not the one who killed him." Looks forced to me.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Lottie, apparently, began yesterDay convinced that Eomer was a big bad wolf (which he was) and prepared to plant the idea that I'm his packmate (which I'm not), starting the 'Mr Agreeable' routine with #271. But when skip voted Eomer, her reaction was

Originally Posted by Lottie #373

But I still don't know why you're pressing this.

in answer to this:

Originally Posted by skip#370

No dammit, lynch Eomer, ergo my vote!

So did she really not understand why he was pressing to lynch the one who had been her her own main suspect for the last two days? Or was she trying to force him to reveal explicitly so the last wolf would know who to kill?

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Agan's defense of Eomer yesterDay, and her continued cobbler-hunt for skip are a strong point against her. As for the latter, I think it entirely possible that Aganwolf could have used the accusation of cobblery as a pretense to get an innocent lynched, even if she had no idea he was the seer. As for the former, I wonder - there must have been a predictable chance yesterDay that Eomer would get lynched, given that he was heavily suspected, so wouldn't it have made more sense for a packmate to distance herself from him?
If she's the cobbler, by the way, her support of me is sadly (or luckily) misguided.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Finally, Nerwen. I'm not sure that one comment by skip is sufficient evidence to clear her as a dreamed innocent - but I've got nothing on her, and I'm running out of time.


So, where is everybody? I haven't got all night.

EDIT: x-ed with Lottie.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

So did she really not understand why he was pressing to lynch the one who had been her her own main suspect for the last two days? Or was she trying to force him to reveal explicitly so the last wolf would know who to kill?

You mean, did I really not understand what the hey was going on, but it seemed like it was going on in a good way, so I went with it anyway? Yup. That's about what happened. I figured it out a minute after DL, when I went, "ohhhhhhhhh...derp."

[Pitchwife]

Really, Lottie, is that the best you can do? I suspected Eomer heavily enough to vote him based on that exchange, and you disqualify it as slight suspicion/banter? Obviously our ideas of stylistic register are vastly different... or you're twisting it to fit.

[Pitchwife]

And what makes you so sure skip didn't dream sally? Just because he didn't suspect her yesterDay? It might have been a good idea to check somebody he didn't suspect, just in case - I've done it myself as the seer, to make sure I wasn't overlooking something.
There's something going on between the two of you...

EDIT: x-ed with Agan; this is addressed to Lottie.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Actually, as an innocent, Pitchie's much more in the thick of things, suspecting people with the best of them.

I'm far from being convinced of his innocence, either, but I don't think that's a very good argument, given that it was yourself who found Eomer's comparison of your playing style to that of gifted!Lottie's suspicious...

I don't think Skip would have dreamt of anyone besides Agan, Pitchie, and me. And I know who I am - that is, not the last wolf. My vote will go to one of those two.

Even if that's unlikely, I think he can have dreamed sally as well, and I really don't like your insistence that it's not the case. It's simply too late to discount the possibility that somebody was not dreamed just because she was being friendly to the seer at the end of the day. Period.
At the moment I think I could vote for Lottie because she's being darn fishy... but then again, her earlier behaviour & the part she played in EW & Eomer's lynches speak in her favour... I wonder if she's the cobbler (although I had probably better stop cobbler hunting for now and concentrate on finding the wolf). Argh this is confusing. Sally is my second option, and then Pitch, although I feel a lot better about him than the other two.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Her almost-fake-reveal yesterDay just before DL (#374) looks very much like an attempt by an innocent to protect the seer by baiting the wolf to kill her instead...

Could also be the cobbler doing a fake reveal, assuming she actually thought Eomer was innocent.

Agan's defense of Eomer yesterDay, and her continued cobbler-hunt for skip are a strong point against her.

Actually, if you ask me, they should in fact speak in my favour... There are two things you should know about Aganwolf:
1) She always throws her fellows under the bus if she thinks it makes her look better. I've only saved a fellow from the gallows once (who was about to be lynched for, objectively, ridiculous reasons).
2) She never lynches the one she thinks is her cobbler. She rather fabricates cases against innocents.
Now I'm just trying to remember how much I've told you about what I'm like as a wolf, ie. are you inventing reasons to accuse me or not...

If she's the cobbler, by the way, her support of me is sadly (or luckily) misguided.

Good to know... Actually I just changed my mind about Lottie, in truth she really looks innocent!
Anyway before you get excited, I'm not supporting you (at least on purpose). I just think Lottie and sally are more suspicious than you. It's not the same.

Finally, Nerwen. I'm not sure that one comment by skip is sufficient evidence to clear her as a dreamed innocent

I wouldn't worry about it too much - if she's our final wolf, I think we can blame skip for our loss.

I'm here while the others are fighting (my character is a coward who rather shoots, and he has to load his bow every other round).

[satansaloser2005]

Interwebs are being hateful because of the weather. I'll still be here, but I'll have to be concise. Just a fair warning (and apology of sorts) in case I don't reply to everything.

[satansaloser2005]

**Lottie for Representative**


EDIT: x'd with Agan and Nerwen. Thus....

**Nerwen for the Win**

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

It's just something you did that speaks neither for nor against you, so I wouldn't try to defend myself with it.

If you can't defend yourself with fighting to kill a wolf and defending the seer, what can you defend yourself with nowadays?

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

**Lottie for Representative**


EDIT: x'd with Agan and Nerwen. Thus....

**Nerwen for the Win**

Snerk. *snuggles Sallycakes...and Nerwen, too, for good measure*

EDIT: xed with Agan, who can haz snuggles too.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Loslote

If you can't defend yourself with fighting to kill a wolf and defending the seer, what can you defend yourself with nowadays?

Killing a wolf and defending the seer from a lynch are no proof of somebody's innocence. That's just the way it goes - especially when the player in question is someone as experienced and sneaky as sally.