Werewolf LXXXI: Under the Misty Mountains

[Inziladun]

Finally home and got a minute or two free.

Green Category (not worried about ATM)

Lommy- Hasn't been around toDay, but giving the first three votes to Lottie, along with saying nothing particularly Elven, puts her here.

Nog- Not around much, which makes me a bit nervous, but what's he's said seems innocent enough.

Greenie- Nothing to ping the Elfdar. Didn't vote for Lottie, but I thought Sally was a reasonable choice at that time.

Eönwë- Made sense yesterDay, and I see no reason to distrust him.

Rune- Nothing odd jumps out.


Yellow Category (trying to keep an eye on)

Nerwen- I do like the way she's held tp's feet to the fire, but it strikes me that she called it 'harping' when I made two posts about the same issue.

Sally- Like Nog said, reason tells me she's unlikely to be an Elf, but I still don't much trust her.

Shasta- It's not so much what he's said; just that he seems very aggressive early on.

Legate- He's always a tough one for me to get a handle on, and this time he seems a bit more subdued than I remember.

Cel- Voted for Boro on a "gut feeling", which could easily have been an attempt to save Lottie. Hasn't been here toDay.

Gray Category (ambiguous)

Folwren- Seems different from the last time I played with her, but I don't know if it means anything.

Mira- Gave tp his third vote, apparently as a joke. I didn't find it that amusing, but she hasn't been around nearly enough to look at her in any detail. If nothing changes, could go to the 'Yellow" list toMorrow.

Kath- She's playing?

Glirdan- Hasn't been around much. I can't really remember anything in particular he's said or done.

Red Category (don't trust at all)

phantom- I don't know what he would look like as an Elf, but I wouldn't put anything past him. He may not be an actual Elf, but I'm inclined to wonder if he's not indeed the OoUA who chose the Elves, and is doing all he can to divert attention to himself.

Wilwa- Split her votes for Lottie and Sally, tying them, which alone would not be enough to put her here. But I also don't like the defensiveness I've seen toDay.

x/d with all since # 395.

[the phantom]

As far as voting for a Rep today, hmm....

Legate, Nog, Rune, and Steve were going to be my options, but Rune has asked not to be one and I from his recent posts I don't trust Steve not to stab me with my vote. I'm also slightly entertaining the possibility of electing Sally just to see what she does, or letting Wilwa have another go at it as her vote yesterday wasn't exactly conclusive.

Originally Posted by me

FACTS:
1) I've done this exact thing multiple times as an innocent.
2) I did so at a time in which I was clearly not trying to influence the vote.
3) There was no negative risk whatsoever.

Originally Posted by Shasta

1) That does not preclude you from doing it as a baddie.
2) So?
3) Except for... the part where... there totally... was?

On your first point- so what? Apparently you don't understand what my point means. You originally said that my bluff did not make sense as an innocent, and my point was in answer to that, saying that it does in fact make sense as an innocent. You pointing out that I could also have done so as a baddie is completely meaningless. As a matter of fact, the way you word it, it sounds as if you actually agree with my first point (you appear to be saying that it makes sense as both a goodie and baddie, and as my whole point was that I would indeed do so as a goodie, you basically backed me up).

And I apologize for the strong wording here, but your third point is dumb. You and Nerwen both have said again and again that there was some sort of risk involved, despite the fact that there wasn't. Tell me what the risk was. Go on. Tell me. And if you say, "The Seer might've counter-revealed" I will know beyond all doubt that your rational thinking is out of whack and so will everyone else. Sorry Shasta, but you can't just keep saying stuff that is not true.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

If I have to modfire anybody else, I'ma mass murder the lot of you, declare myself winner, and pout for a very long time. All y'all stop having to drop out mah game!

Oh mah gahd, I love you. (and am a little afraid)

Going to go eat (steak, yummy), and then I'll be back to vote and such.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, here goes a little overview of my analysis above the Reps of yesterDay and their votes... The basic question is this: is it likely that there were SoE among the Reps; if so, how many; how could they possibly act in such circumstances; does something point to somebody in particular?

Let's start with the Reps, there were the phantom (with three votes, but voting no one), Lommy (voting Lottie with all three votes), Nerwen (voting Boro and Sally), Izzy (voting Lottie; innocent, now dead), Wilwa (voting Lottie and sally), Greenie (voting Sally) and Celuien (voting Boro). Note: It might be quite good and interesting to try to keep some voting record for the future in order to compare those people who have been reps and how they voted, especially if they were so more times. And I mean, of course we are probably going to check who voted for whom if we are looking at somebody in particular, but I mean even generally, to sort of bear it in mind. It is "the" voting record. I am not sure how much important the voting record of choosing the Reps is this far, as it largely depends how brave the SoE are, whether they are strongly influencing the votes from the beginning (which does not seem like the case, as otherwise Lottie would not have been lynched, unless it is all some very strong plan from the beginning, like intentional sacrifice, but then again, if it was so, it would need a very bold combination of people and if you look at the list and try to combine it so that it would make sense like that, I don't see too many logically coherent options) or whether they are now getting there more "indirectly". It will most likely be more important for the SoE to get among the Reps later in the game, with smaller village, where the chance of lynching a Wolf statistically increases.

Before I get sidetracked: I find it hard to find or unveil some "clique" in the yesterDay's voting process, like to find something that could seem like "here a SoE possibly voted a SoE to get him to be a Rep", except for the notorious phantom case. Not that I would have expected anything much anyway (and especially see above as to what I think about the SoE's activity).

I must say, Boro's quitting made some things clearer (like his role), but in general I think it didn't make many things much clearer, like when it comes to the votes cast for him by the other Reps. Celuien, half of Nerwen, and phantom, namely, were thinking of voting him or voted him; phantom didn't do so only because of that he didn't want a double-lynch. It remains questionable still what to make of it. One thing we can say for sure is that tp didn't go for double-lynch even though he could: and it would have been a wolf and ordo lynch. For this, I think it looks a bit better for tp: the SoE could at least even the odds if Boro died too. On the other hand, it is true that he would have brought the wrath of all the anti-doublelynchers upon himself, not to speak of that (as it seems to be) phantom is seemingly an anti-doublelyncher himself and perhaps people know it of him and so he would not dare to change his style so much so randomly. He could even use it as a bonus for proving his innocence, of course. That all without bringing the Seer-revelation thing into the picture, but I'd like to focus now also on the others.

You know what, I must say one thing - phantom might be dominating our talks all the time, but it can be said that this way we get much more info about him than of anybody else. I mean, if we knew equally much about everybody, we'd probably win the game rather soon. In that way, his loudness is rather helpful. (But before I boost him too much: now that we know enough, tp, you could become a bit quieter and leave space for others.)

Okay, as for the rest of voters. Celuien's vote probably becomes the most questionable, and Nerwen's sort of half-and-half. Similar thing could be actually said about Wilwa, who voted in the way so that there could be a double-lynch. While she didn't vote for Boro himself, she sort of allowed the possibility, with leaving the door open. And actually when looking at this, I found it one of the things worth noting too. I don't have any problems with double-lynches, but in case sally is innocent, even this possibly might have been a subtle way for a SoE to sort of make a half-wolf-on-wolf-vote and at the same time leaving the door open for other options, sort of "keeping one's hands clean while at the same time making it possible that the teammate is saved". That's something I would do as a SoE. Greenie's vote, even though not cast for a known innocent like in the previous cases, also gave two to somebody else than Lottie. Once again, if sally is innocent, quite an effective way to save a possible SoE-mate. Since I think sally might likely be (see before), I am making a questionmark here, too.

Now let me return only for a moment to Nerwen. I think I somehow got past my phase of being paranoid about Nerwen in every game and at least on first Day, she seemed okay to me with her opening posts, and later with some of her posts toDay, still the way she e.g. argued with phantom, however dramatic it sometimes went, it does not show anything bad about her to me. Of course, if sally is innocent, then Nerwen's move could have been to give two options besides a SoE-mate, but question is, what good would it be and how much a chance was there to lynch either of her options with the votes so spread: wouldn't it have been better to vote only one person?

Okay... I think I will stop here. I am going to cast my vote for Rep, and there will be a lot to do tomorrow still, but I think my thoughts have been sort of made more consistent now (not sure if this post is, though).

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, toDay I am not going to make it complicated and vote for the person I wanted to have for Rep the previous Day, since this time she already has one vote -

++Folwren for Rep

Okay, looking forward to toSecondHalfMorrow, and I hope people will select some good Reps here...

Good night now, people.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Before it gets too late to put another option on the table...

++Nerwen

Now let's see.