Werewolf LXXXI: Under the Misty Mountains

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Phantom

because I was hoping to be night-killed!

I call bulls- er, elf-dooky.

Originally Posted by Phantom

You cannot justify your claim by saying, "There've been counters in other games!" This is me, in this game, with these people, at this precise moment. With me, in this village, at that time, there was not going to be a counter-reveal. End of story. I can't believe I'm even having to explain it.

This is entirely contradictory to your previous actions. You were all too happy to point out earlier that I agreed with you about Day 1s in a previous game, so why you're suddenly so gung-ho about previous games not mattering is beyond me. Phantom, I think your entire problem is that you assume everybody is a clone of you and thinks the way you think.

Originally Posted by Phantom

It's only "normal and logical" in the sense that you are curious and want to know.

Incorrect. It is normal and logical that you are being questioned as a player, by another player, about your actions. It seems to me (and I think I've said this before) that everytime someone dares to question the great Phantom, you go into a frenzy of "you're an idiot if you question me"!

Originally Posted by Legate

Lottie's wolvery is not such a big surprise either, and now if you ask me, I think that makes sally rather innocent.

Why do you think this, Legate?

Originally Posted by Rune

Yes the Phantoms actions are often weird and sometimes makes you want to crush your own skull with a sledgehammer, but that is just something you have to get used to. Personally I do not believe half his tales about how cunning he is, but I don't find him overly suspicious and I definitely do not see it as being beneficial to spend the entire day fighting him.

I disagree with this wholly and completely. the phantom should not be getting a pass for being the phantom.

Originally Posted by Wilwa, re: unknown orc

The third one is actually not a possibility, since the Unknown Orc only chose their side this past Night.

Incorrect. Just because the OoUA only made their alignment choice this past night, it doesn't follow that they hadn't already made their decision regarding what they were going to choose.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

And I actually think that Lottie turning up guilty does make Sally look a bit better

Why do you think this, Wilwa? You're the second person now that's thought this and haven't given any reason for thinking so. I see you actually answered this in #366, though. However, all I've seen you say here is a lot of 'would-he-wouldn't-he', so I'm not really buying into it. Plus you seem to be wishy-washy on Sally here. "I don't feel fantastic about her BUT I would be surprised", etc.

Originally Posted by pearl of the moon

If I keep poking at him, it's because he keeps thrashing madly when poked at– which naturally makes me wonder. I do not think it "makes more sense as an innocent bluff"– I've said why.

I agree with this statement.

Originally Posted by Sally

Remember, the post where I said "I was ill but we got a wolf, yay!"? That one? How is that suspicious exactly?

If you really want me to dissect it for you... Let me finish this post.

Originally Posted by Sally

Babe, you're not making sense. I understand your piece about Phantom, and agree with it actually, though that's just sort of who he is, but to say that you'd rather I was lynched than Lottie? You would have learned nothing. Well, you would have, in that an innocent would have been lynched and, when Lottie did get lynched and was proven guilty, you would have had a lot to look at in regards to the first Day. But saying "I wish we hadn't Fenris'd someone" is never okay to say. Never. Sure, say "We should lynch Sally and see what happens and what we can learn with both of them dead" but you can't say you'd rather I was dead than a proven elf. I can't understand why you would say this unless you were one too. Sorry, kid, but it's true.

Elfy, elfy, elfy! You're completely misrepresenting me here - I said "would have", past tense, so the fact that you're suspecting me for allegedly saying "I wish we'd lynched Sally rather than Lottie" goes flying out the window right there. This looks a lot like the chainsawing phantom did earlier.

Originally Posted by she for whom the sun doth shine

It could be that they had a plan to vote phantom into power, either because he's one of them, or because they thought they could manipulate and perhaps frame him, but that Lottie jumped the gun instead of leaving a decent interval before voting. It could be that there was no plan, but that Lottie decided to vote along with her mate anyway, because it was all a light-hearted early-Day-One party atmosphere and could be passed off as a joke.

I think the second is more likely than the first, to be honest. I think Lottie's probably smarter than to make such a mistake. The second scenario, however, seems likely to me.

Originally Posted by a run

Er– hang on. I thought he meant, "YesterDay I would have rather Sally had been lynched", not "I now wish Lottie hadn't been lynched". You reckon that's what he meant?

*falls into a cloud of utter bliss*

Originally Posted by Sally

I think he meant a bit of both, at least subconsciously? I think he means that yesterDay he would have preferred to see me lynched, and he still feels that way toDay. More of a preference to having me dead than an outright attitude of "I wish Lottie was still alive", but the undertones -subtext, for Shasta's enjoyment- still remain the same. He wasn't happy with yesterDay's lynch, and that makes me nervous.

*buzzer sound* Eeeeeghhh, wrong, and now you're just trying to paint me in a bad light to save your own skin. It's pretty clear that I was after both you and Lottie to be executed yesterday - I wanted you over Lottie since she had subsequently defended herself and you had not (to my satisfaction).

Originally Posted by proprietess of my heart's inn

Funny thing is, though– phantom himself says earlier that he would never do that.
You see, he argues that it's in his favour, too, but for the exact opposite reason.

No fair. I was going to point this out. .

I'm sure I'm Celuien-ing with a host, aren't I.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Elfy, elfy, elfy! You're completely misrepresenting me here - I said "would have", past tense, so the fact that you're suspecting me for allegedly saying "I wish we'd lynched Sally rather than Lottie" goes flying out the window right there.

Oh. Oh. Apologies, dear. I misunderstood your "I wish we'd have killed Sally and we still should" as "I wish we'd have killed Sally and I wish we'd done it yesterDay". Forgive me?

Originally Posted by Shasticle

*buzzer sound* Eeeeeghhh, wrong, and now you're just trying to paint me in a bad light to save your own skin. It's pretty clear that I was after both you and Lottie to be executed yesterday - I wanted you over Lottie since she had subsequently defended herself and you had not (to my satisfaction).

No, as mentioned above, it was a misinterpretation. And you do have to admit that you looked unhappy about the results of the lynch, at least in a way.

Also, your reasoning, it fails. Lottie didn't defend herself, she defended Phantom. And I....I wasn't even here. You knew this. Yet you still say that you preferred me, someone who wasn't here to say anything on her behalf, to someone who did have the chance and didn't say anything particularly helpful? What if I'm the seer? What if you had gotten your wish, and I would have been killed yesterDay rather than Lottie? Would you be happy about testing your suspicions then? I don't think so. Or maybe you would be. Maybe I'm right after all. Either way, you need to either be consistent and accurate in your opinions and reasoning or you need to be lynched for spinning a case against me that isn't correctly founded.


Also, in regards to Nog's post below, I concur (on the Phantom bits). I'm not saying that I understand him, I'm saying that I can see reasoning for why his actions wouldn't be those of a wolf. Thus, for now, I want him alive.


EDIT: x'd since Nog's 391

[satansaloser2005]

For those who don't have time to read Shasta's list in full....

Innocent: Anyone who agrees with him
Undecided: People who haven't specifically agreed/disagreed with him....yet
Guilty: People who don't buy all his rubbish

Seriously, he even says that's his reasoning for who he trusts. Read the post.

Foley seems correct? How would you know if her suspicions are correct unless you know everyone's roles? There's no other way to know if someone is "correct", and if you know roles you're either the seer (who can't possibly know enough roles to make this kind of judgement) or a son of an elvish trollop. So....that leaves?

[Inziladun]

Finally home and got a minute or two free.

Green Category (not worried about ATM)

Lommy- Hasn't been around toDay, but giving the first three votes to Lottie, along with saying nothing particularly Elven, puts her here.

Nog- Not around much, which makes me a bit nervous, but what's he's said seems innocent enough.

Greenie- Nothing to ping the Elfdar. Didn't vote for Lottie, but I thought Sally was a reasonable choice at that time.

Eönwë- Made sense yesterDay, and I see no reason to distrust him.

Rune- Nothing odd jumps out.


Yellow Category (trying to keep an eye on)

Nerwen- I do like the way she's held tp's feet to the fire, but it strikes me that she called it 'harping' when I made two posts about the same issue.

Sally- Like Nog said, reason tells me she's unlikely to be an Elf, but I still don't much trust her.

Shasta- It's not so much what he's said; just that he seems very aggressive early on.

Legate- He's always a tough one for me to get a handle on, and this time he seems a bit more subdued than I remember.

Cel- Voted for Boro on a "gut feeling", which could easily have been an attempt to save Lottie. Hasn't been here toDay.

Gray Category (ambiguous)

Folwren- Seems different from the last time I played with her, but I don't know if it means anything.

Mira- Gave tp his third vote, apparently as a joke. I didn't find it that amusing, but she hasn't been around nearly enough to look at her in any detail. If nothing changes, could go to the 'Yellow" list toMorrow.

Kath- She's playing?

Glirdan- Hasn't been around much. I can't really remember anything in particular he's said or done.

Red Category (don't trust at all)

phantom- I don't know what he would look like as an Elf, but I wouldn't put anything past him. He may not be an actual Elf, but I'm inclined to wonder if he's not indeed the OoUA who chose the Elves, and is doing all he can to divert attention to himself.

Wilwa- Split her votes for Lottie and Sally, tying them, which alone would not be enough to put her here. But I also don't like the defensiveness I've seen toDay.

x/d with all since # 395.

[the phantom]

As far as voting for a Rep today, hmm....

Legate, Nog, Rune, and Steve were going to be my options, but Rune has asked not to be one and I from his recent posts I don't trust Steve not to stab me with my vote. I'm also slightly entertaining the possibility of electing Sally just to see what she does, or letting Wilwa have another go at it as her vote yesterday wasn't exactly conclusive.

Originally Posted by me

FACTS:
1) I've done this exact thing multiple times as an innocent.
2) I did so at a time in which I was clearly not trying to influence the vote.
3) There was no negative risk whatsoever.

Originally Posted by Shasta

1) That does not preclude you from doing it as a baddie.
2) So?
3) Except for... the part where... there totally... was?

On your first point- so what? Apparently you don't understand what my point means. You originally said that my bluff did not make sense as an innocent, and my point was in answer to that, saying that it does in fact make sense as an innocent. You pointing out that I could also have done so as a baddie is completely meaningless. As a matter of fact, the way you word it, it sounds as if you actually agree with my first point (you appear to be saying that it makes sense as both a goodie and baddie, and as my whole point was that I would indeed do so as a goodie, you basically backed me up).

And I apologize for the strong wording here, but your third point is dumb. You and Nerwen both have said again and again that there was some sort of risk involved, despite the fact that there wasn't. Tell me what the risk was. Go on. Tell me. And if you say, "The Seer might've counter-revealed" I will know beyond all doubt that your rational thinking is out of whack and so will everyone else. Sorry Shasta, but you can't just keep saying stuff that is not true.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

If I have to modfire anybody else, I'ma mass murder the lot of you, declare myself winner, and pout for a very long time. All y'all stop having to drop out mah game!

Oh mah gahd, I love you. (and am a little afraid)

Going to go eat (steak, yummy), and then I'll be back to vote and such.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, here goes a little overview of my analysis above the Reps of yesterDay and their votes... The basic question is this: is it likely that there were SoE among the Reps; if so, how many; how could they possibly act in such circumstances; does something point to somebody in particular?

Let's start with the Reps, there were the phantom (with three votes, but voting no one), Lommy (voting Lottie with all three votes), Nerwen (voting Boro and Sally), Izzy (voting Lottie; innocent, now dead), Wilwa (voting Lottie and sally), Greenie (voting Sally) and Celuien (voting Boro). Note: It might be quite good and interesting to try to keep some voting record for the future in order to compare those people who have been reps and how they voted, especially if they were so more times. And I mean, of course we are probably going to check who voted for whom if we are looking at somebody in particular, but I mean even generally, to sort of bear it in mind. It is "the" voting record. I am not sure how much important the voting record of choosing the Reps is this far, as it largely depends how brave the SoE are, whether they are strongly influencing the votes from the beginning (which does not seem like the case, as otherwise Lottie would not have been lynched, unless it is all some very strong plan from the beginning, like intentional sacrifice, but then again, if it was so, it would need a very bold combination of people and if you look at the list and try to combine it so that it would make sense like that, I don't see too many logically coherent options) or whether they are now getting there more "indirectly". It will most likely be more important for the SoE to get among the Reps later in the game, with smaller village, where the chance of lynching a Wolf statistically increases.

Before I get sidetracked: I find it hard to find or unveil some "clique" in the yesterDay's voting process, like to find something that could seem like "here a SoE possibly voted a SoE to get him to be a Rep", except for the notorious phantom case. Not that I would have expected anything much anyway (and especially see above as to what I think about the SoE's activity).

I must say, Boro's quitting made some things clearer (like his role), but in general I think it didn't make many things much clearer, like when it comes to the votes cast for him by the other Reps. Celuien, half of Nerwen, and phantom, namely, were thinking of voting him or voted him; phantom didn't do so only because of that he didn't want a double-lynch. It remains questionable still what to make of it. One thing we can say for sure is that tp didn't go for double-lynch even though he could: and it would have been a wolf and ordo lynch. For this, I think it looks a bit better for tp: the SoE could at least even the odds if Boro died too. On the other hand, it is true that he would have brought the wrath of all the anti-doublelynchers upon himself, not to speak of that (as it seems to be) phantom is seemingly an anti-doublelyncher himself and perhaps people know it of him and so he would not dare to change his style so much so randomly. He could even use it as a bonus for proving his innocence, of course. That all without bringing the Seer-revelation thing into the picture, but I'd like to focus now also on the others.

You know what, I must say one thing - phantom might be dominating our talks all the time, but it can be said that this way we get much more info about him than of anybody else. I mean, if we knew equally much about everybody, we'd probably win the game rather soon. In that way, his loudness is rather helpful. (But before I boost him too much: now that we know enough, tp, you could become a bit quieter and leave space for others.)

Okay, as for the rest of voters. Celuien's vote probably becomes the most questionable, and Nerwen's sort of half-and-half. Similar thing could be actually said about Wilwa, who voted in the way so that there could be a double-lynch. While she didn't vote for Boro himself, she sort of allowed the possibility, with leaving the door open. And actually when looking at this, I found it one of the things worth noting too. I don't have any problems with double-lynches, but in case sally is innocent, even this possibly might have been a subtle way for a SoE to sort of make a half-wolf-on-wolf-vote and at the same time leaving the door open for other options, sort of "keeping one's hands clean while at the same time making it possible that the teammate is saved". That's something I would do as a SoE. Greenie's vote, even though not cast for a known innocent like in the previous cases, also gave two to somebody else than Lottie. Once again, if sally is innocent, quite an effective way to save a possible SoE-mate. Since I think sally might likely be (see before), I am making a questionmark here, too.

Now let me return only for a moment to Nerwen. I think I somehow got past my phase of being paranoid about Nerwen in every game and at least on first Day, she seemed okay to me with her opening posts, and later with some of her posts toDay, still the way she e.g. argued with phantom, however dramatic it sometimes went, it does not show anything bad about her to me. Of course, if sally is innocent, then Nerwen's move could have been to give two options besides a SoE-mate, but question is, what good would it be and how much a chance was there to lynch either of her options with the votes so spread: wouldn't it have been better to vote only one person?

Okay... I think I will stop here. I am going to cast my vote for Rep, and there will be a lot to do tomorrow still, but I think my thoughts have been sort of made more consistent now (not sure if this post is, though).

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, toDay I am not going to make it complicated and vote for the person I wanted to have for Rep the previous Day, since this time she already has one vote -

++Folwren for Rep

Okay, looking forward to toSecondHalfMorrow, and I hope people will select some good Reps here...

Good night now, people.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Before it gets too late to put another option on the table...

++Nerwen

Now let's see.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by me

because I was hoping to be night-killed!

Originally Posted by Shasta

I call bulls- er, elf-dooky.

Why?! It's exactly what Ordo-Phantom is ALWAYS hoping for! If I get Night-killed when there are gifteds still around I'm able to laugh and say with pride, "Ha! You killed the wrong person! Fooled you!"

Originally Posted by Me

You cannot justify your claim by saying, "There've been counters in other games!" This is me, in this game, with these people, at this precise moment. With me, in this village, at that time, there was not going to be a counter-reveal. End of story. I can't believe I'm even having to explain it.

Originally Posted by Shasta

This is entirely contradictory to your previous actions. You were all too happy to point out earlier that I agreed with you about Day 1s in a previous game, so why you're suddenly so gung-ho about previous games not mattering is beyond me.

My reference of you to a previous game was regarding an issue of overarching playing philosophy (the randomness of Day 1s). Core Werewolf beliefs are less likely to change game to game.

My point to Nerwen about other reveals in other games not mattering was regarding an issue of precise timing and persons involved. My point was that in this village at this time with this set of villagers there was zero chance of a counter-reveal.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I do not think it "makes more sense as an innocent bluff"– I've said why.

Originally Posted by Shasta

I agree with this statement.

How can you agree with this when I have so completely trashed the notion? How does my bluff not make sense as an innocent?
FACTS:
1) I've done this exact thing multiple times as an innocent.
2) I did so at a time in which I was clearly not trying to influence the vote.
3) There was no negative risk whatsoever.

It makes perfectly obvious sense, and I'm getting sick of saying it. The only way it wouldn't make sense is if you're clinging to the idea of wanting me to be guilty and blinding yourself to logic.

The only thing about me you are right about is your point at the end, where Nerwen points out to Sally that I had specifically said the opposite of what Sally claimed.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Back... from now on it should be better with my participation (although today I am soon going to sleep). Also because I really do not feel like trying to start to decipher all toDay's talk, which anyway has been somewhat rotating around several groups arguing, as far as I can see; I would like to take a look at the voting of Reps from yesterDay, as I wanted to do in the beginning, and try to think about the process. Also so that I can make it clear for myself, start from that and that way make conclusions also for toDay and to still make a vote. First a short reply:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Why do you think this, Legate?

(about what I said about sally being less suspicious now after Lottie is dead) I think it's been said already here several times also by other people: simply that I find it improbable that there would be. If I was for example to start thinking that there were two Wolves among the triangle of phantom and his voters, or actually, what is it, rectangle? Phantom, sally, Lottie and Mira, I would find phantom and Lottie far more likely, and in fact, now that I think of it, even Mira-Lottie, rather than sally-Lottie. It just came so out of the blue in the very beginning, unless it was planned beforehand, it would be awkward - and then again, if it was planned, I would expect the phantom to be the mastermind behind such a thing, so here we are back again at what I said before.

I am actually now already sort of working on a post about the reps and their votes in order to see if there can be and clue as to how many of them could have been SoE, what can it tell us etc., but it is becoming rather minute work and rather disconcerting, as the answers seem to sort of dissolve into nothing. Nonetheless, it helps me make better picture of people, so I will probably continue doing that still... and then maybe make some conclusions based on that, if it's worth anything.

EDIT: x-ed from sally onwards

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, great, so now it looks like I am a Rep, that at least makes it sure that I will participate more toMorrow One more reason to finish my post and analysis... and to read toDay once again (though I may save it for after I have slept, then).

So, in a while...

[Inziladun]

Who to vote for toDay?
I'd probably go for Steve if he didn't already have two.
Legate's got two as well. Of yesterDay's reps, Lommy is the only one I might think of voting now. Hm.

Let's make it

++Shasta for rep

and see what he does.

x/d with Lommy x 2

[the phantom]

REP VOTING:

Nerwen for Shasta
Rune for Steve
Green for Steve (2)
Nog for Legate
Steve for Legate (2)
Lommy for Nog
Inzil for Shasta (2)
Wilwa for Foley

THE REPS:
Steve
Legate
Shasta

[the phantom]

All right... Rep decision time...

Is anyone else interested in seeing what Sally would do as a Rep? If not it would be a total waste for me to vote for her.

Also, is someone planning on giving a second to Nog?

Kath and Mira- are you here and can you quickly give some thoughts?

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Is anyone else interested in seeing what Sally would do as a Rep?

I'll save you the trouble and just tell you what I'd do.

I'd kill an elf, that's what I'd do. Or I'd at least try.



Sorry, sorry, I'm mostly back. Just got back to my yesterDay's-rep-votes post and will post it shortly if all goes to plan.


P.S. I'm considering voting Nog, but I have other options as well.

[the phantom]

On a scale of 1 to 10 how irritated would the village as a whole become if I started begging for votes and Sally and Mira obliged?

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by the phantom

On a scale of 1 to 10 how irritated would the village as a whole become if I started begging for votes and Sally and Mira obliged?

15

[the phantom]

REP VOTING:

Nerwen for Shasta
Rune for Steve
Green for Steve (2)
Nog for Legate
Steve for Legate (2)
Lommy for Nog
Inzil for Shasta (2)
Wilwa for Foley
Legate for Foley (2)
Shasta for Nerwen

THE REPS:
Steve
Legate
Shasta
Foley

ALMOST REPS (need another vote):
Nog
Nerwen

STILL TO VOTE:
Kath
Mira
Celuien
Sally
Foley
Phantom