WW LXXXII: Return to Tol-in-Gaurhoth

[Nogrod]

I was already letting my paranoic-self loose while listening to our Jeweler here saying how easy it would be to get rid of the cobbler - so something like a masterplan in the works from the get-go?

But as I went checking back into the rules to find out whether my idea was right and the cobbler doesn't know the identity of the wolves (which would mean a cobbler might falsely reveal and hit a wolf thus making us believe her/him for a moment - the problem being it could draw our seer into the open earlier s/he wanted), I actually stumbled on a more important issue I had forgotten.

The seer gets the identity of the cobbler this time for sure - so by playing the "revealment-card" the cobbler can at best distract us for one lynching (or another if the seer is really cold-blooded and thinks it wise in the general balance of the game), but s/he will be known to be the cobbler by the seer the next Night - which should hold the cobbler's willingness in check to try and meddle in that way...

It doesn't take away the chance the cobbler might fool us for one Day, but it will sure mean the cobbler will ensure s/he will walk to the gallows pretty soon if s/he's trying to pull out that kind of trick. I mean in a basic scenario, an ordinary elf could try to do the trick to save the seer and we'd be insecure if the seer just later said s/he is "an innocent". But in this game the cobbler will be seen as a cobbler by the seer.

So in the end I tend to agree with our Jeweler of Amon Lanc that the cobbler isn't that much of a threat (until the end of the game of course, if alive that is) - or someone we should try to go for in the first Days as our main target. So let's keep the wolves as our main targets and not get distracted with the cobbler-talk. I'm okay with lynching the cobbler anytime we have good reasons to believe someone is the cobbler and we have no idea who the wolves are - but on other situations, like having some credible suspicions on wolvery, especially early in the game, let's stick to hunting the wolves.

EDIT: X'd with Inzil