WW LXXXII: Return to Tol-in-Gaurhoth

[Nogrod]

I was already letting my paranoic-self loose while listening to our Jeweler here saying how easy it would be to get rid of the cobbler - so something like a masterplan in the works from the get-go?

But as I went checking back into the rules to find out whether my idea was right and the cobbler doesn't know the identity of the wolves (which would mean a cobbler might falsely reveal and hit a wolf thus making us believe her/him for a moment - the problem being it could draw our seer into the open earlier s/he wanted), I actually stumbled on a more important issue I had forgotten.

The seer gets the identity of the cobbler this time for sure - so by playing the "revealment-card" the cobbler can at best distract us for one lynching (or another if the seer is really cold-blooded and thinks it wise in the general balance of the game), but s/he will be known to be the cobbler by the seer the next Night - which should hold the cobbler's willingness in check to try and meddle in that way...

It doesn't take away the chance the cobbler might fool us for one Day, but it will sure mean the cobbler will ensure s/he will walk to the gallows pretty soon if s/he's trying to pull out that kind of trick. I mean in a basic scenario, an ordinary elf could try to do the trick to save the seer and we'd be insecure if the seer just later said s/he is "an innocent". But in this game the cobbler will be seen as a cobbler by the seer.

So in the end I tend to agree with our Jeweler of Amon Lanc that the cobbler isn't that much of a threat (until the end of the game of course, if alive that is) - or someone we should try to go for in the first Days as our main target. So let's keep the wolves as our main targets and not get distracted with the cobbler-talk. I'm okay with lynching the cobbler anytime we have good reasons to believe someone is the cobbler and we have no idea who the wolves are - but on other situations, like having some credible suspicions on wolvery, especially early in the game, let's stick to hunting the wolves.

EDIT: X'd with Inzil

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The seer gets the identity of the cobbler this time for sure - so by playing the "revealment-card" the cobbler can at best distract us for one lynching (or another if the seer is really cold-blooded and thinks it wise in the general balance of the game), but s/he will be known to be the cobbler by the seer the next Night - which should hold the cobbler's willingness in check to try and meddle in that way...

It doesn't take away the chance the cobbler might fool us for one Day, but it will sure mean the cobbler will ensure s/he will walk to the gallows pretty soon if s/he's trying to pull out that kind of trick. I mean in a basic scenario, an ordinary elf could try to do the trick to save the seer and we'd be insecure if the seer just later said s/he is "an innocent". But in this game the cobbler will be seen as a cobbler by the seer.

That is indeed true! Well good to have realised that. This way, the cobbler-threat gets a lot smaller, although still of course we should not dismiss it... but yes, well. This also answers dear our dear Pitchfurrier's doubts (at least those concerning Cobblers - I definitely share his concerns about the uncloaking plan!)... my concern was just general, knowing such things might occur. Of course, if a fake-Gifted proved to be a nuisance, there would have been the need for radical turn, but fortunately indeed, the Seer can always dream of him/her. Even if it meant losing a Night of when he/she could have dreamed of a real Wolf - but I think it would depend on the situation whether it's affordable or not, and anyway, a person going around and saying he or she is the Seer should not be left unchecked, just for the sake of the village. And he/she might even be a Wolf him/herself, and not just a Cobbler (that is also one very, very important point to bear in mind!). Anyway, I guess the conclusion is: if somebody comes out claiming that he or she is something and is not, then the real person should not be too hasty, hum hom, as one of my very, very, very old friends used to say...

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I was already letting my paranoic-self loose while listening to our Jeweler here saying how easy it would be to get rid of the cobbler - so something like a masterplan in the works from the get-go?

Sorry, I somehow completely fail to see where, in the speech of his you're replying to here, Legate said anything about a masterplan to get rid of the cobbler, or the easiness thereof, and what about that would make you paranoic. Care to enlighten me?

Unfortunately, dear friends, the time has come for me now to seek such sleep as may be found in this foul dungeon, and it will be a while ere I'll be able to rejoin the discourse. May the Valar aid you in your search for truth!