Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

1- you said that your first Assumption was that they went for someone who could be the Seer, and then Nog was the only one you brought forward as a possibility, and then once you argued that possibility quite a bit (while some people brought forward quotes that went against what you were saying) you continued on to your second Assumption as if there was nothing more to say about the first, as if Nog was the only option. So no you didn't out right say that, but that's the way it reads.

2 - It won't at all actually! Even with a Ranger save we look for possible wolf choices not so much to find the wolves, but to have a somewhat known innocent. And besides, without first knowing who the wolves even are it's really difficult to guess who they went for, there are many reasons to kill someone, and within those reasons it would be very hard to agree upon who best fits the bill. Without having the knowledge that the wolves have (ie. each other's identities) there's no way to know who they went for accurately enough to really deduce anything useful, right now.

3- Because we're going to waste our time, like I just said there is no way to know who they went for, too many variables and not enough information, if we wait, until at least 1 wolf is dead or something else comes up, then we can go back and say "Ok, so X was a wolf, so who would X have wanted dead back on Night 2", and once we have more information we can make a better estimate.

I'm going away for real now.

x'ed with Nog and Pitch

1. Nog was only the first I brought up. I'd planned on bringing up others, but Inzil sidetracked me by jumping to Nog's defense (which is what you consider me 'arguing my point') and then some people yelled at me for 'speculating on who's the seer' so I dropped it.

2. Just because something is 'hard' doesn't mean we shouldn't do it anyway. Finding wolves is 'hard'. Winning at WW is 'hard'. Should we not do these things as well?

3. That doesn't mean we completely ignore the information we're given! Ignoring anything in this game is foolhardy because the thing we ignore now will come back to bite us later and we'll be like 'why didn't we see that at the time?'!