Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

If you could not put words into my mouth I'd appreciate it. Darling, I never said that.


This situation is much like a ranger-save. So trying to figure out who the wolves might have gone for (ignoring the BW entirely) won't help us figure out who the wolves are? Really?


Why wait? That's precisely what the wolves want, for us to ignore information in favor of 'waiting'. Tis a wolvish sentiment, in truth!

1- you said that your first Assumption was that they went for someone who could be the Seer, and then Nog was the only one you brought forward as a possibility, and then once you argued that possibility quite a bit (while some people brought forward quotes that went against what you were saying) you continued on to your second Assumption as if there was nothing more to say about the first, as if Nog was the only option. So no you didn't out right say that, but that's the way it reads.

2 - It won't at all actually! Even with a Ranger save we look for possible wolf choices not so much to find the wolves, but to have a somewhat known innocent. And besides, without first knowing who the wolves even are it's really difficult to guess who they went for, there are many reasons to kill someone, and within those reasons it would be very hard to agree upon who best fits the bill. Without having the knowledge that the wolves have (ie. each other's identities) there's no way to know who they went for accurately enough to really deduce anything useful, right now.

3- Because we're going to waste our time, like I just said there is no way to know who they went for, too many variables and not enough information, if we wait, until at least 1 wolf is dead or something else comes up, then we can go back and say "Ok, so X was a wolf, so who would X have wanted dead back on Night 2", and once we have more information we can make a better estimate.

I'm going away for real now.

x'ed with Nog and Pitch

[Loslote]

Heeey...I'm here...for a bit...turns out I have a dentist appointment before (and until a bit after) DL, so I'll have to vote soon.

I won't vote for Nog or Shasta, because I actually think they're both relatively innocent.

I won't vote for Eomer, because I want to give TB a chance to try and kill TBW, and I think he's the most likely candidate.

I won't vote for Vanilwuffin or Zil, because they feel somewhat genuine and I want to hold off on them.

I might vote for one of the quieter people. This mostly means Kath, Formy, and Elfie. Of the three, probably not Kath. Maaaybe Formy, but most likely Elfie.

I might vote for Pitchie because I suspected him yesterDay, but only if I get a chance to see him post toDay before I have to go.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Nog is the first one who immediately jumped out at me, so of course I mentioned him first. Then you accused me of only concentrating on Nog, so I discussed him a little more, then moved on.

I'm not sure I agree with you. I can see why Nog jumped out at you, but Inzil had a point. It looked like you thought there was no other possibility but Nog, as if you just tried to paint him in a bad light, and while I think Nog looks fairly bad, I'm not sure he's the BW. I don't think the BW could afford to be so... careless.

Originally Posted by Shasta

And I don't know if this is just a consequence of how long you've been away, Volo, but I don't care for some of the absolutes you've been making.

Me neither. I know Volo tends to be a bit eccentric, but he really doesn't look too good in this game. Okay I admit the main thing I don't like about him is his suspicion of me because I don't think it's all that well reasoned, but still.

Originally Posted by Shasta

So trying to figure out who the wolves might have gone for (ignoring the BW entirely) won't help us figure out who the wolves are? Really?

Give me half an hour and I can come up with reasons why any one of us could have been attacked. As long as we don't know who they are (or who the BW is), there's no use speculating. It leads nowhere and is a waste of time - and something a wolf or the cobbler would probably like us to do.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Why wait? That's precisely what the wolves want, for us to ignore information in favor of 'waiting'.

We're not ignoring anything. We're simply waiting till we have access to the said information. What does it tell you about the wolves or the BW that they targeted her last night? That they wanted her dead. That's all. We still don't know why they wanted her dead, ie. we have no clue who she is or who the wolves are.

I am not overly fond of Shasta at the moment. I simply don't follow his reasoning - I don't think there's a way we can get any information about last night's kill before either a wolf or the BW is dead, and I don't like how he keeps pushing it (okay granted, people, myself included, have brought it up more than once, but still).

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'd suggest we took the other way and looked at the "no trace" kills ending up with the BW.

This sounds better to me than trying to find the seer, but it still doesn't tell us anything about last night. However, I have nothing against lynching a quiet/non-substantial player today, just because not posting is unfair to everybody: to the village if you're a baddie, to the wolves if you're a gifted.

Originally Posted by Kath

Let's lynch Agan. It'll make everyone happy

Miss, you'll pay for this!

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Re: Wilwa - I'm sorry, I didn't mean to hurt your feelings or anything. I'm just overly fond of the rolleyes smiley. I wasn't trying to be mean, and if I came off that way I apologize.

Re: Agan - "Not overly fond"? That cuts me to the quick, it really does. However, coming from someone who goes from agreeing with me re: Volo to going after me for a reason I've explained multiple times, it doesn't cut as much as it normally would.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Agan

It looked like you thought there was no other possibility but Nog, as if you just tried to paint him in a bad light,

I've no desire to continue beating this dead horse. Read up a few posts and you'll find my rebuttal.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

"Not overly fond"? That cuts me to the quick, it really does.

Sorry, it was badly phrased. It should've said, "I think Shasta looks slightly evil at the moment," which translates as, "I find Shasta slightly more adorable than usually at the moment."

Originally Posted by Kath

There was some argument between Agan and .... someone.

Haha I wonder which one of my arguments you're talking about. Pitch said he finds it hard to believe an innocent Agan would've got confused with the rules. I asked for clarification.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I've no desire to continue beating this dead horse. Read up a few posts and you'll find my rebuttal.

I know, I just still disagree.

edit: xed with wilwa & Nog. Tell Greenie to come here! ♥

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Pitch said he finds it hard to believe an innocent Agan would've got confused with the rules. I asked for clarification.

Ah, I forgot to reply to that. What I meant was you could be faking confusion to cover up that you were trying to mislead us on purpose on Barry's winning conditions, but you already answered that yesterDay that you would have considered that 'unsportsmanlike', and I feel you're the kind of person who may actually have her own code of honour on such things, so I think I'm satisfied as to that.

[Volo]

Eomer - Agan
Glirdan - wilwa
Volo - Agan 2
sally - Agan 3
Greenie - Glirdan
wilwa - Glirdan 2
Form - wilwa 2
Kath - wilwa 3
Pitch - Glirdan 3
Zil - Glirdan 4
Aganzir – Glirdan 5
EW – Volo
Loslote – Agan 4
Nogrod – Agan 5
Shasta – Glirdan 6

No vote: Nerwen

If I'm not mistaken. Assumptions based upon the votes alone won't help.

I'm sorry, but I really don't have much to say.
Greenie feels better now that I've reread her posts. Not anyhow especially alarming and contributing well enough. Might do good to keep her around.
wilwa also gives out the ordo vibe.
sally wouldn't like to see lynched. However at this moment I'm a bit desperate. Half of the players are really deep under the sea. And the talkative players don't seem to get anywhere. As uncreative as it really is, I nearly see most sense in voting a quiet player. Somebody who isn't even trying/able to contribute. Eomer, tEW, me... there's quite a choice. And no, I do not imply that I'm the Cobbler.

I'll probably end up bandwagoning whoever feels the guiltest. If I manage to overtake my friend's computer again. :/

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Re: Wilwa - I'm sorry, I didn't mean to hurt your feelings or anything. I'm just overly fond of the rolleyes smiley. I wasn't trying to be mean, and if I came off that way I apologize.

Meh, you didn't hurt nothing, and not mean, just annoying. I still love you.


I just really need to get at least one more page done of this aweful assignment, it's taken me all day to write like 3 paragraphs. So once I can get past my attention problems and get on with it, I will come back and look through everything again.

[Kath]

Miss, you'll pay for this!

Moi?!

Right, I'm going to wander through Day 2 now, have a look at what's been going on.

Ooh one thing though. There was some argument between Agan and .... someone. I want to say Nerwen but I can't remember. It was about not knowing the rules and that being a really guilty thing to do. Just wanted to put it out there that I disagree. These games with experimental roles are complicated. If even Boro is altering/clarifying the rules still then I don't think not being totally certain on them counts as particular grounds for suspicion. This might have been laid to rest already but I just suddenly remembered it.

[Kath]

Day 2:

Shasta: I actually love him for his first comment. Assumption 1: The wolves went after someone they thought was the Seer. And suggested Nog for being sure about Agan, while questioning this as Agan went after Nog. Bit of a non-thought maybe? Says not only the BW would pose as the Seer, other roles may well do it too. Says Inzil is defending Nog. Well, technically yes, but I think more what he's doing is arguing that other people should be looked at as well. Now I don't like the way Shasta leaps on this comment of Inzil's, but nor do I much like these attempts to 'out' the Seer by either of them. Assumption 2: The wolves attacked someone who would leave no trace. Mentioned by others already and yeah fair point.

wilwa: Says the wolves went for the Barrow Wight. Suggests we look at quiet players or look for Seer hints. Prefers the former as the latter will be harder. Given that there was no kill so there are no 'safe' players to look for Seer hints in I do think that the latter would also be a bit more dangerous for the Seer. Interesting idea of something to do with Shasta's throwaway comment. Good point that actually the BW isn't going to know anything really. Say Nog was the Ranger and the BW stunned him, unless it's made explicit in the narration that the Ranger's role was affected, the BW isn't going to be able to deduce that the Ranger must be Nog.

Nog: I'm ... not quite sure what he was arguing here. Seems to be saying that Shasta was totally wrong to suggest he might be Seer ... but that actually Shasta wasn't saying that, but rather that he (Nog) was the BW pretending to be the Seer so the Seer would waste a dream on him. Is that right? I got lost in this. Says it is in the opposite interests of the BW to attract Seer attention. Pushes the quiet players = evil theory as per usual! About half a Day after everyone else this time. I'm hating this 'code' - I can't remember what any of the letters stand for. Won't vote Greenie as she can't be here. Won't vote Agan because though he thinks she's a Cobbler he thinks she gets good discussion going. To be honest, if you think someone is evil I'd say go after them, but I suppose it's good reasoning.

Inzil: Don't get it. Why bring a comment on Volo in to suggest Nog was the Seer when the comment had no 'certainty' to it. Throws Eomer in as a possible Seer candidate for being 'certain' about Agan - fair point actually. Says that Glirdan voting wilwa means he didn't think her a wolf - I actually wouldn't bet on that. Where I argue with Inzil is the idea that Shasta was 'pushing' Nog as a suggestion. Actually, Shasta's suggestions about Nog were within the same post and then any other discussion was in answer to other people's comments on that post. So I wouldn't have said he was 'pushing' the idea. "Oh, I think potential Seers are a priority for wolves, certainly. But Shasta zeroing in on Nog the way he did to the apparent exclusion of all else is what struck me. " This I feel is inflammatory and unfair.

Lottie: Thinks quieter people or early voters would be more likely Night kills, suggesting Eomer, Form and Elfie (I like that shortening!). Well fair point. Says Eomer might be the BW but that we should leave the BW up to TB. In these early days it is more important to go wolf hunting, but as Shasta says talking about the BW does give TB more information to go on. Thinks Nog and Shasta innocent, thinks Eomer is the BW, thinks wilwa and Inzil are ok and is tempted to vote for Elfie for being quiet or Pitch after yesterDay. Votes Elfie because Pitch hasn't spoken - I like that, giving someone a chance to defend themselves.

Nerwen: Says if Nog were the Wight then Agan would be a cobbler not a wolf anyway. Um, why? Says Eomer doesn't count as a no-trace kill. I'm glad she was as confused by Nog as I was. Votes Agan for overplaying the Cobbler thing, being overly defensive and going after the BW too much.

Elfie: Just one post? Says Lottie seems ok and votes Eomer because he (?) has no idea what he might be. Erm, right, odd. And says Volo seems ok on further consideration. Really strange little post this.

Eomer: Says let TB go after Nog toNight and ignore him from now on. Yeah why not?

Greenie: Doesn't trust people who don't make an effort with their vote, for example Form and Eomer. "Other than that, I'm quite at a loss with why Nog calling Agan a cobbler makes it probable Aganwolf and her pack would think him the Seer who had dreamed her." I love this comment because I think this is the crux of the argument and is where I'm totally lost.

Volo: Thinks Nog might be a wolf because he's tense, but thinks if he were a wolf then he'd be hiding this better. Doesn't think he's the BW. Thinks Agan suspicious for putting forth a way to out the BW which would take attention away from the lynch itself. Well it's a fair reason. Thinks Shasta innocent. Interesting idea that the BW may take against the innocents if outed that way. Thinks Greenie and wilwa look ok, not sure on anyone else. Will likely vote a quiet player.

Form: Nothing in that post except complaints. And a second one!

wilwa: I'm reading these posts having seen Shasta explain that he wasn't only focusing on Nog, he just hadn't had a chance to get further. I don't know whether, had I not seen this already, I'd have read the argument in the same way as wilwa - who says Shasta seemed to think only Nog was a possibility. That said, I still agree that we need to be careful when talking about possible Seers.

Agan - ah, I've realised I've been skimming Agan's posts and not commenting. Well I probably commented on most of what she said when talking about other people. Anyway. Finds Nog, sally, Volo, Nerwen and Shasta guilty. Finds Greenie, wilwa, Pitch and Lottie innocent. Likely to vote Nog, Volo or sally. She has reasoning for everyone, and based on how many discussions and arguments she's been involved in with most of the people named it is pretty extensive.

Votes:
Nerwen - Agan

By the way - Volo made a Freudian slip? What was that?

Oh and Pitch. I didn't mean to offend with my appalling lack of memory. Our dear mod has to give me daily reminders that the game is going on just so I remember to turn up so please don't think it's just you!

Ah and it was Pitch not Nerwen who had that argument with Agan about the rules. Which is funny given this later comment by Pitch: Right. I just checked the rules to find that the Seer, in this game, can actually find out the Cobbler.

Right, posting this then I'll think about a vote.

[Kath]

Leaning guilty:
Shasta - I think it's great that he's around with ideas and I do think his words have been taken out of context a lot. That said, I think he focuses on the Seer too much and could potentially be a Cobbler taking attention away from the wolves.

Nog - Confusing and rude in tone to Agan.

Inzil - Well maybe being in the middle of the argument alters your view but as I said I thought some of his comments were inflammatory and unfair.

Elfie: Didn't like that single post. Unlikely to vote her because she said she won't be back.

Volo - Is going to be in deep trouble if his style keeps getting him on to this side of the lists. Because that's why he's here - what he's actually said seems ok, but there's something running the wrong way there.

Leaning innocent:
Lottie - Think she's ok.
Eomer.
Greenie.

No idea:
Nerwen
wilwa
Form - and I'm oh so tempted to vote him so the hardship of being here is removed for him.
Agan - there's almost too much surrounding her to be able to decide what to do there. I'm still half inclined to suggest lynching her and be done with it!

Haha I accidentally wrote about wilwa twice! In the first section I conclude she's pretty innocent, in the section I get rather suspicious! I've put her in no idea as a result.

Back in a minute with a vote. Want to check any cross posts first.

[Kath]

Argh I missed Pitch off - I'm seriously going to be hated soon. If it's any consolation the last post made me think you innocent.

So, vote:

++FORM
I'm going on principles. Don't want to play? Feel free to leave.

[Formendacil]

So... somewhere since mid-afternoon, I lost an hour somewhere. This is mostly outside people's interest, except insofar as it means I thought I had more like an hour and a half till the deadline than a mere half hour... and it also means that I need to be moving along to greener scenes of interest.

Ergo, I should vote now.

Personally, I like Nog's reasoning vis-a-vis Agan being a Cobbler, but she's much too hot a topic toDay for me to vote for on that reason alone. Without studying it to the extent that it deserves, I don't want to be swept up in something with such highly volatile bandwaggon potential.

Who does that leave?

Unfortunately, not really anyone... except maybe Nog himself, if his theory's wrong, but of course there's no way to know that without lynching Agan.

My vote then is going to be essentially a throw-away, and I accept full association with the scorn that will be heaped upon me in Day 3 (if I survive that long). In the interests of economy, we'll stick with yesterday's vote then...

++ wilwarin

Who actually DOES feel slightly more "off" toDay to me, but not in any sort of way that I'm actually going to be able to pin down.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

1- you said that your first Assumption was that they went for someone who could be the Seer, and then Nog was the only one you brought forward as a possibility, and then once you argued that possibility quite a bit (while some people brought forward quotes that went against what you were saying) you continued on to your second Assumption as if there was nothing more to say about the first, as if Nog was the only option. So no you didn't out right say that, but that's the way it reads.

2 - It won't at all actually! Even with a Ranger save we look for possible wolf choices not so much to find the wolves, but to have a somewhat known innocent. And besides, without first knowing who the wolves even are it's really difficult to guess who they went for, there are many reasons to kill someone, and within those reasons it would be very hard to agree upon who best fits the bill. Without having the knowledge that the wolves have (ie. each other's identities) there's no way to know who they went for accurately enough to really deduce anything useful, right now.

3- Because we're going to waste our time, like I just said there is no way to know who they went for, too many variables and not enough information, if we wait, until at least 1 wolf is dead or something else comes up, then we can go back and say "Ok, so X was a wolf, so who would X have wanted dead back on Night 2", and once we have more information we can make a better estimate.

I'm going away for real now.

x'ed with Nog and Pitch

1. Nog was only the first I brought up. I'd planned on bringing up others, but Inzil sidetracked me by jumping to Nog's defense (which is what you consider me 'arguing my point') and then some people yelled at me for 'speculating on who's the seer' so I dropped it.

2. Just because something is 'hard' doesn't mean we shouldn't do it anyway. Finding wolves is 'hard'. Winning at WW is 'hard'. Should we not do these things as well?

3. That doesn't mean we completely ignore the information we're given! Ignoring anything in this game is foolhardy because the thing we ignore now will come back to bite us later and we'll be like 'why didn't we see that at the time?'!

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

1. Nog was only the first I brought up. I'd planned on bringing up others, but Inzil sidetracked me by jumping to Nog's defense (which is what you consider me 'arguing my point') and then some people yelled at me for 'speculating on who's the seer' so I dropped it.

2. Just because something is 'hard' doesn't mean we shouldn't do it anyway. Finding wolves is 'hard'. Winning at WW is 'hard'. Should we not do these things as well?

3. That doesn't mean we completely ignore the information we're given! Ignoring anything in this game is foolhardy because the thing we ignore now will come back to bite us later and we'll be like 'why didn't we see that at the time?'!

I'm really glad there weren't more than 3 points, cause one more eye roll could very well make me snap.

I....don't feel like arguing with you, because I don't like your tone and I think my tone probably wouldn't be much better, so I'm going to stop. We disagree, it happens, whatever, I'm going to move on now.

So, I'm going to skim through the day again, and try to come up with an actual suspect. But I think I'm agreeing with the people who are leaning towards quiet ones, there are a lot of them, and I have this feeling that alot of the loud ones right now, the ones that are arguing with each other and all suspicious of each other, are mostly innocents while the baddies are chilling back going unnoticed.

x'ed with Shasta