Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[Nerwen]

Quiet, aren't you all?

Well–

++Agan again.

[Inziladun]

Not much time right now, but I should be back in a couple of hours.

Originally Posted by Loslote

The only thing is, why would they? After all, TBW is hardly on their side. Xe wants the wolves dead, too. What could a Shastawolf have gained from framing Nog as TBW - especially considering he would have killed him the very next Night?

Unless the pack was tired of trying to get Nog lynched, or maybe, like I said, Shasta is Ferny. I need to think about it though, whether Nog's innocence makes Shasta look better, worse, or neutral.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Speaking of Volo and wilwa:

We now know he was what he said, but as the Ranger, he couldn't have known what you were, could he? Therefore I neither understand his statement nor your reply.

I saw it the way Wilwa explained: Volo took the time to say Wilwa wasn't the BW because he had protected her Night 2 and knew she wasn't targeted by the wolves.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

TEW's vote was very hasty indeed... and what was that bit about 'signing off' about? Does that mean he's not coming back toDay? In this case, such an early vote would be understandable.
Anyway, I don't think his reason quite as bad as Lottie and Shasta make it look - I mean, if Shastawolf thought Nog could be the real Seer instead of BW masquerading as one, trying to frame him would make sense, as would the Night-kill after that didn't work. Problem with that is, I don't know that I in his place would be so daring as to go after a supposed Seer in broad Daylight and risk provoking a reveal, instead of killing them quietly; and it would also point quite strongly to both Shasta himself and Agan... but maybe they considered getting rid of the Seer worth the risk.

With Agan though, Nog was repeatedly saying she was a Cobbler. If she's a wolf, what else did he say that drew the pack's attention?

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Pitch

Anyway, I don't think his reason quite as bad as Lottie and Shasta make it look - I mean, if Shastawolf thought Nog could be the real Seer instead of BW masquerading as one, trying to frame him would make sense, as would the Night-kill after that didn't work. Problem with that is, I don't know that I in his place would be so daring as to go after a supposed Seer in broad Daylight and risk provoking a reveal, instead of killing them quietly; and it would also point quite strongly to both Shasta himself and Agan... but maybe they considered getting rid of the Seer worth the risk.

Yeah, the whole thing is a bit odd. I have a hard time believing that a Shastawolf would go through all that just to frame someone, only to then kill them. Like you said, if he legitimately thought Nog was the Seer he could just stay quiet about it until the following Night and kill him then, instead of drawing attention to it and risking Nog coming forward. The scenario of Shastawolf thinking Nog was the Seer just does not seem likely to me, and to me seems to make Shasta look a bit better (assuming that the wolves thought Nog to be the Seer). Continuing with that assumption (goodness, I sound like Shasta now) then that would make Agan look good too, since he clearly pegged her as a Cobbler (so an Aganwolf would never think him the seer for that reason). Of course there could very well have been a completely different reason that the wolves went for Nog, so I'm not saying that I completely trust either of them..

I also don't like the way EW popped in like that (he did that yesterDay too, didn't he?). He may just be busy, but the tone of it doesn't sound like he feels bad about not coming back, he just seems like "oh, well whatever, I'll just vote and leave and they won't even notice me".

There are way too many quiet people with indifferent attitudes in this game.

[Aganzir]

Well, at least the wolves are good at picking out the special roles.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Since they went after Nog, who was, of the two, less likely to look like a Seer, that suggests that they knew Eomer wasn't the Seer. They could only know that if he was a) TBW or b) a wolf.

I'm not sure I get your reasoning. Shouldn't it be enough that they know I'm not a wolf? Nog attacked me for being "the cobbler, of course" but Eomer only said I was "guilty as sin". As a wolf, I'd be more concerned about a person who was sure someone was the cobbler than about someone who just thought she was guilty.

Originally Posted by Lottie

What could a Shastawolf have gained from framing Nog as TBW - especially considering he would have killed him the very next Night?

Especially considering that everyone now seems to think we should give Tom a try on a suspected Barrow-Wight before lynching them. Getting Tom to check Nog would've wasted a chance to get rid of the real one which I find it hard to believe the wolves want. Unless they want to keep her around at least as long as the three of them are still alive...

Speaking of the Barrow-Wight, I won't be very surprised if she's on my suspect list. Just sayin'. (Of course I might be wrong though.)

As for EW, I definitely don't like his quietness either but I must say his behaviour doesn't look very suspicious/atypical of him to me per se.

Nerwen, just so you know I xed with wilwa's vote. I voted for Volo after Shasta and Zil had said they considered it.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

but other than the initial vote (Wilwa's) all the votes on Volo look quite nastily opportunistic.

How so? Yes, I voted for him because he seemed more likely to be lynched than my other suspects, if that's what you call opportunism. How come the Volowagon was opportunistic but the Glirdywagon wasn't? Just because we lynched the ranger instead of the cobbler? I really don't like the way Nerwen seems to be twisting it, and the same goes for Eomer.

Originally Posted by Shasta

he's no better than Morsul and thus not worth my time.

I am deeply amused by this comparison.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Just to say that I agree with Nerwen's interpretation here; chances are indeed good that one or even two wolves stuck around this late.

It's pretty interesting that Eomer goes on to suspect the Volo voters when he himself was the runner-up (and chances were good he would've been lynched instead, even without Volo's reveal). I'm not sure what to make of it, though.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Don't really see anything Seerish about Nogrod. Odd kill by the wolves, if you ask me.

Except he seemed to be certain I was the cobbler? If the wolves don't know who their cobbler is, they may well have thought it was me and that he was the seer.

Originally Posted by Pitch

and what was that bit about 'signing off' about? Does that mean he's not coming back toDay?

Given how much he's posted before, I believe it means he's gone for the day...

Originally Posted by Pitch

Problem with that is, I don't know that I in his place would be so daring as to go after a supposed Seer in broad Daylight and risk provoking a reveal, instead of killing them quietly

I think that would be foolhardy for a wolf: seer Nog probably wouldn't have waited till the very last minute to reveal so it's unlikely he would have been lynched (even more so given that only a few people suspected him), and since the ranger was still alive it would've brought the wolves gambling they could easily have avoided.

Next I'm going to have a look at Inzil, but before that, tea-time!

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

TEW's vote was very hasty indeed... and what was that bit about 'signing off' about? Does that mean he's not coming back toDay? In this case, such an early vote would be understandable.

Thing is, it's not the early vote - it's that early votes and about one short, not-particularly helpful post a Day is all he's really done.

I'm still not feeling particularly good about Pitchie, and I think he and Elfie could well be packmates - but I don't think I'll vote for Pitchie toDay. It's possible my suspicion is primarily because I disagree with almost every word he says. But he is posting and contributing, so I'd be much more likely to vote for Elfie again.

Another one I'd consider is Eomer, who still seems off.

I have to vote early again - I have to run booths and pass out candy to hyper kids after church. I don't know when I'll be back, but it'll hopefully be around DL. In any case, I'll vote soon, just to be sure.

[Aganzir]

First off, let me say that I too am always amused when Inzil plays WW at work.

Inzil starts off on day 1 by saying that a suspected cobbler should be lynched in absence of a lupine target. I like it, but it doesn't tell me anything about his role because I pursue my tirade against cobblers even if I'm one, or a wolf, myself. He also thinks that a BW lynch is okay if we don't have other strong suspects because it might be difficult to leave her to Tom entirely, but she shouldn't be our priority. I'm inclined to agree, mostly because we can't know who Tom has already checked.

He questions Volo for saying the BW will have educated hunches about the roles, says he finds him shifty, and states he doesn't like the bandwagon against me. He considered voting Volo (who hadn't played in a long time, though) or Eomer. In the end he voted for Glirdan (who had a nervy edge to his posts).

On day 2, he said Nog as a wolfkill was a possibility, but he didn't see why his suspicion of me stood out from the others - also Eomer's suspicion seemed pretty explicit, while Nog had said I was the cobbler.

He analyses the votes, saying he would've expected Eomer of the Wargs at least to qualify his with a gut feeling; sally posted little so it's hard to say if her reasons were opportunistic (for the sake of consistency I should probably ask what makes a vote opportunistic, but as I've said of sally's vote before, it looked like she simply didn't care who got lynched); points out that to Form, entertaining was more valuable than useful; wilwa's reasons for her vote were better than Kath's (who voted for her for a lack of reasoning).

Then he argues with Shasta on whether Aganwolf would've been more likely to target Nog or Eomer, saying that a wolf is usually more worried of someone who votes for her for little or no reason than of someone who has an actual case against her. Shasta says Inzil was defending Nog but I don't think so, in my opinion he had a fair point. Still, I don't think the argument makes either of them look very bad, it looks more like they had differences in views and the argument just escalated.

He keeps questioning Volo for his weird suspicion of me and points out that on day 1 he voted for someone Nog was suspicious of even though he (according to himself) thought Nog could be a wolf. He considers voting for Eomer or Volo again, but says EW's vote for Eomer doesn't look too good, either. Shasta is either evil, insane or both, and he could possibly vote for Form too. In the end he gave Volo his third vote (just before his reveal). In her vote analysis, Nerwen says Inzil had only said Volo pinged his radar, but he had in fact been quite consistent with his suspicion since day 1.

Today he wonders if Shasta might be Ferny. That's possible I guess. It just seemed so useless to suggest we try to figure out whom the wolves targeted. Also, Eomer looks shady although we can't know if Tom targeted him or not. I agree, especially after his last posts.

I wonder if I should be concerned about Inzil because he is reasonable and makes sense - almost too much so. Anyway I don't find him suspicious at all at the moment.

[Pitchwife]

Zil's stated reasons for voting Volo look better at first sight than at the second, in my opinion. He questioned why Volo would have voted for Agan when he thought Nog a wolf, but Volo actually said this:

Originally Posted by Volo

When going Day1 through in my head yesterday, I had a feeling that Nogrod was a Wolf.

(my bolding)
From these words, I think Volo clearly meant that Nog started feeling wolvish to him when he was reexamining Day 1 during the Night, i.e. after his vote for Agan; and I remember a Zilwolf used a similar technique - trying to construe another player as self-contradicting when they weren't - last game. As far as I can see, he hasn't made any other substantial point against Volo yesterDay before voting him with no further comment. Now this pings my radar!

[Aganzir]

Whoops, thanks Pitch. I was lazy and only skimmed the quotes because I thought I remembered what they said.

However Inzil was initially suspicious of Volo because of the way he went after me, ie. didn't say a word about me but voted for me because I thought Greenie, whom he suspected, was innocent (this happened mainly on day 1). So even though the quote you provided makes his yesterday attack on Volo look fishier than I originally thought, I don't think I can blame him for suspecting Volo.

edit: xed with Greenie who is strongly encouraged to come and visit me if her computer crashes.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

From these words, I think Volo clearly meant that Nog started feeling wolvish to him when he was reexamining Day 1 during the Night, i.e. after his vote for Agan; and I remember a Zilwolf used a similar technique - trying to construe another player as self-contradicting when they weren't - last game.

I thought of interpreting Volo's words the way you say, Pitch, but the "yesterday" made it look to me as if he was saying he'd suspected Nog during the Day.

YesterDay I was considering four people for my vote: Eomer, TEW, Form, and Volo.
I couldn't make up my mind whether Eomer or TEW looked worse, since I didn't think they both were likely to be wolves. I didn't like Form's votes, but he seemed as if he was genuinely busy, and I didn't have a lot of time to think. I decided on someone I'd already been wondering about, Volo.

Do you really think a vote for Sally would be constructive, Agan? Perhaps we can technically "afford to lynch another quiet player", but that doesn't mean we should.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Formy

I'd prefer to think that speaks for my innocence, given that I tend to be more invested in things as a wolf--and as the Days go on, and there's more to analyze--but that's just me.

Might be true, but we can't know that.

Originally Posted by Formy again

My vote then is going to be essentially a throw-away, and I accept full association with the scorn that will be heaped upon me in Day 3 (if I survive that long). In the interests of economy, we'll stick with yesterday's vote then...

++ wilwarin

Who actually DOES feel slightly more "off" toDay to me, but not in any sort of way that I'm actually going to be able to pin down.

Not scorn, but genuine curiosity.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

I have this strange fear that Form, Kath and Eomer are wolves together, and they are all being quiet and distant and pretending to want to kill each other, just cause they know how awesome they are and that we won't want to kill them right away.

Ouch. I believe you just made me paranoid, because that's actually a horrific scenario - and not all that impossible.

Originally Posted by Agan

++Volo

As opposed to Nog & sally, there seems to be a chance to lynch him. I feel semi-bad doing this because he hasn't played in a long time, but if he's innocent, he can only blame himself for being so weird.

This strikes me as slightly off - she seems to vote Volo for being weird, while she quite well knows he is more or less that every game whatever his role. It's rather like voting Lommy for being flip-floppy, Kath for missing Day 1, or Pitch for being agreeable.

Originally Posted by Inzil

Looking back now, both Greenie and Sally, two of the remaining three voters, had indicated they would not be around. That left Eomer, who wasn't likely to vote for himself at that point even if he'd been innocent.

True. A revealed ranger is pretty much a goner anyway since they can't protect themselves.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

This strikes me as slightly off - she seems to vote Volo for being weird, while she quite well knows he is more or less that every game whatever his role. It's rather like voting Lommy for being flip-floppy, Kath for missing Day 1, or Pitch for being agreeable.

I'm used to Volo being eccentric but I'm not used to anyone voting for a player just because she doesn't suspect a player they suspect.

[wilwarin538]

Here (the previous Night he had referred to one Alpha):

Originally Posted by Boro

"I can't believe that just happened" grinned the other Alpha. "Now we know who the Wight is, so it shall be easy to avoid and with no guardian, looks like our fortunes are finally beginning to change."

"Aye" said the last Alpha. "And let us hope it's a seer snack tonight. That will more than fill my hungry stomach."

It was actually from Night 3, but yeah, probably not all that important.

*goes back to taking notes*

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Do you really think a vote for Sally would be constructive, Agan? Perhaps we can technically "afford to lynch another quiet player", but that doesn't mean we should.

More constructive than she has been thus far. And just in case you don't remember, I've suspected her since day 1. (Although it's probably silly to phrase it this way because she hasn't posted since day 1.)

Almost half the players have 10 posts or less, and I'd much rather lynch a quiet one.