Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

From these words, I think Volo clearly meant that Nog started feeling wolvish to him when he was reexamining Day 1 during the Night, i.e. after his vote for Agan; and I remember a Zilwolf used a similar technique - trying to construe another player as self-contradicting when they weren't - last game.

I thought of interpreting Volo's words the way you say, Pitch, but the "yesterday" made it look to me as if he was saying he'd suspected Nog during the Day.

YesterDay I was considering four people for my vote: Eomer, TEW, Form, and Volo.
I couldn't make up my mind whether Eomer or TEW looked worse, since I didn't think they both were likely to be wolves. I didn't like Form's votes, but he seemed as if he was genuinely busy, and I didn't have a lot of time to think. I decided on someone I'd already been wondering about, Volo.

Do you really think a vote for Sally would be constructive, Agan? Perhaps we can technically "afford to lynch another quiet player", but that doesn't mean we should.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Formy

I'd prefer to think that speaks for my innocence, given that I tend to be more invested in things as a wolf--and as the Days go on, and there's more to analyze--but that's just me.

Might be true, but we can't know that.

Originally Posted by Formy again

My vote then is going to be essentially a throw-away, and I accept full association with the scorn that will be heaped upon me in Day 3 (if I survive that long). In the interests of economy, we'll stick with yesterday's vote then...

++ wilwarin

Who actually DOES feel slightly more "off" toDay to me, but not in any sort of way that I'm actually going to be able to pin down.

Not scorn, but genuine curiosity.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

I have this strange fear that Form, Kath and Eomer are wolves together, and they are all being quiet and distant and pretending to want to kill each other, just cause they know how awesome they are and that we won't want to kill them right away.

Ouch. I believe you just made me paranoid, because that's actually a horrific scenario - and not all that impossible.

Originally Posted by Agan

++Volo

As opposed to Nog & sally, there seems to be a chance to lynch him. I feel semi-bad doing this because he hasn't played in a long time, but if he's innocent, he can only blame himself for being so weird.

This strikes me as slightly off - she seems to vote Volo for being weird, while she quite well knows he is more or less that every game whatever his role. It's rather like voting Lommy for being flip-floppy, Kath for missing Day 1, or Pitch for being agreeable.

Originally Posted by Inzil

Looking back now, both Greenie and Sally, two of the remaining three voters, had indicated they would not be around. That left Eomer, who wasn't likely to vote for himself at that point even if he'd been innocent.

True. A revealed ranger is pretty much a goner anyway since they can't protect themselves.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

This strikes me as slightly off - she seems to vote Volo for being weird, while she quite well knows he is more or less that every game whatever his role. It's rather like voting Lommy for being flip-floppy, Kath for missing Day 1, or Pitch for being agreeable.

I'm used to Volo being eccentric but I'm not used to anyone voting for a player just because she doesn't suspect a player they suspect.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Agan

I'm used to Volo being eccentric but I'm not used to anyone voting for a player just because she doesn't suspect a player they suspect.

Fair enough. Looking back, you did have a pretty sensible reason for suspecting Volo - the phrasing of your vote-post just made it look like you voted him for being weird.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Fair enough. Looking back, you did have a pretty sensible reason for suspecting Volo - the phrasing of your vote-post just made it look like you voted him for being weird.

To be honest, that would have served him right - after all, he voted for me for talking about the cobblers.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Agan

Almost half the players have 10 posts or less, and I'd much rather lynch a quiet one.

I agree, I mean there are only 3 hours left of the Day and there have been less than 40 posts (that's less than 2 posts an hour). That's lame, and if we get rid of the louder people then every day will get quieter.

So if we split the village up into 3 groups (now I'm not going off post count, I'm doing this in a fairly arbitrary way based on who stands out to me from all 3 Days, feel free to argue this) it sort of looks like this:


Loud
Agan
Inzil
Nerwen
Pitch
Shasta

Moderately Loud
Wilwa
Greenie
Lottie

Quiet
Eomer
Formendacil
Kath
Sally
The Elf-Warrior

So I kind of want to go for someone in that last group.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Here and reading.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Agan

However Inzil was initially suspicious of Volo because of the way he went after me, ie. didn't say a word about me but voted for me because I thought Greenie, whom he suspected, was innocent (this happened mainly on day 1).

continued from

Originally Posted by Agan Day1

Also, he only suspects Greenie but votes for me (when I already have a vote).

which was based on

Originally Posted by Volo Day1

Noggie doesn't bother with pleasantries and joins the Day with quite harsh words indeed. I sort of agree with his point, an evil Agan could very well be so bold as to mislead the discussion with something like that. But let's not get too jumpy yet.

I myself got the bad vibe from Greenie. Her painting of the worst-case scenario felt somewhat... mischevious. Additionally Agan liking Greenie instead of finding her suspicious points to an abnormality. This is just a hunch and I'll add that I've found Greenie suspicious all the time after her first game in which she was Wolf. But what do you think?

As you see, he was pondering the possibility of your being evil in the very same post. It's not really like he 'didn't say a word about' you and 'only suspected Greenie' but then all of a sudden voted you for no reason than you already had a vote. Some more twisting going on here?
And to be fair, I think he had a point - you Finns all have a long tradition of being at each other's throats in almost every single game, and Volo knows you all quite well, so I think I understand why your lack of suspicion of Greenie seemed eyebrow-raising to him, maybe pointing to you two being packmates.

(x-ed from #286 down)

[Inziladun]

I wanted to look at someone who hasn't been talked about much. Smilies removed.

Day 1

Originally Posted by Kath

*waves*

Posting to say that I am aware we've started (thanks oh great mod!) and that if deadline is 11pm GMT then I should, bar any unforeseen circumstances, be here at deadline.

While I'm away I request that no one tries to lynch Eomer or Form. It's been way too long since I played with them.

Intro post.

Originally Posted by Kath

Well thanks so much Eomer for that kind greeting. Let's all suspect him now for saying he was going to kill me and Form but then going after Agan! That's suspicious right?

Can someone throw a vote count at me? I have skimmed not read and that's going to stay the same really. So I'd like to know who's for the gallows and have a better look at them.

Ah and so I make no unfortunate errors ... Pitchwife - male or female?

Not much to say about that. The first part is apparently joking.

Originally Posted by Kath

Eomer - Agan
Glirdan - wilwa
Volo - Agan 2
sally - Agan 3
Greenie - Glirdan
wilwa - Glirdan 2

Thanks Agan, missed that as I went through. I added wilwa's vote on. Our Canadians are voting against each other. Interesting?

We know now Glirdy was Harry Goatleaf, but that says nothing about Wilwa's alignment.

Originally Posted by Kath

Well we apparently know the lynch choices for toDay then! So I'll go look at their posts and then vote.

Agan - suggests the person stunned reveals. Interesting idea, it would narrow down possibilities ... does it end up revealing Gifteds though and thus helping the wolves more? Basically saying just don't forget TBW in case it comes back to bite you later. Takes against Glirdan as well. Her and wilwa as buddies sounds unlikely given that they both suspect him. Suspects Nog for twisting her words or at least continuing to misunderstand them. Says 'trust me' waaaay too much.

Wilwa - saw the downsides of having the stunned person reveal. Says focusing on TBW distracts from the more immediate danger of wolves and cobblers. Seems to have pretty clear and thought through reasons against Agan's revealing plan. I thought she was looking pretty good but then she takes against Glirdan for no reason I can particularly see.

Glirdan - says focus on the wolves and cobblers and let the less obviously dangerous Gifted's sort themselves out. Makes sense to me though in these early Days we're as likely to get one of them as we are anything else! Adapts Agan's TBW outing plan to work for cobblers.

Right, well. To be honest none of them seem desperately suspicious! I'd be more tempted to go for wilwa because to be honest I can't see the reasoning behind Glirdan being suspicious. He's doing stream-of-consciousness posting but it doesn't seem particularly guilt-ridden.

So:

++WILWA

I noted before that Wilwa certainly didn't "take against Glirdan for no reason".

Day 2

Originally Posted by Kath

*waves at Nog from my little yellow submarine*

And I have to take back what I said yesterDay about wilwa's vote for Glirdan. I thought it was based on pretty much nothing other than feelings, but clearly she has much more of a gut-based grasp on Glirdan than I do!

Let's lynch Agan. It'll make everyone happy ... except Agan ... and then we can finish that argument!

Only joking. I was about to make a proper post but I've just been informed that dinner is ready. So I'll be back in a bit to actually say something (hopefully) useful.

Retracts her reasoning behind the vote for Wilwa (which I'd pointed out was wrong).

Originally Posted by Kath

Moi?!

Right, I'm going to wander through Day 2 now, have a look at what's been going on.

Ooh one thing though. There was some argument between Agan and .... someone. I want to say Nerwen but I can't remember. It was about not knowing the rules and that being a really guilty thing to do. Just wanted to put it out there that I disagree. These games with experimental roles are complicated. If even Boro is altering/clarifying the rules still then I don't think not being totally certain on them counts as particular grounds for suspicion. This might have been laid to rest already but I just suddenly remembered it.

I don't remember discussions of one not understanding rules making them suspicious. I'm not saying for certain that no one mentioned it, but this seems an odd thing for her to bring up here.

Originally Posted by Kath

Day 2:

Shasta: I actually love him for his first comment. Assumption 1: The wolves went after someone they thought was the Seer. And suggested Nog for being sure about Agan, while questioning this as Agan went after Nog. Bit of a non-thought maybe? Says not only the BW would pose as the Seer, other roles may well do it too. Says Inzil is defending Nog. Well, technically yes, but I think more what he's doing is arguing that other people should be looked at as well. Now I don't like the way Shasta leaps on this comment of Inzil's, but nor do I much like these attempts to 'out' the Seer by either of them. Assumption 2: The wolves attacked someone who would leave no trace. Mentioned by others already and yeah fair point.

wilwa: Says the wolves went for the Barrow Wight. Suggests we look at quiet players or look for Seer hints. Prefers the former as the latter will be harder. Given that there was no kill so there are no 'safe' players to look for Seer hints in I do think that the latter would also be a bit more dangerous for the Seer. Interesting idea of something to do with Shasta's throwaway comment. Good point that actually the BW isn't going to know anything really. Say Nog was the Ranger and the BW stunned him, unless it's made explicit in the narration that the Ranger's role was affected, the BW isn't going to be able to deduce that the Ranger must be Nog.

Nog: I'm ... not quite sure what he was arguing here. Seems to be saying that Shasta was totally wrong to suggest he might be Seer ... but that actually Shasta wasn't saying that, but rather that he (Nog) was the BW pretending to be the Seer so the Seer would waste a dream on him. Is that right? I got lost in this. Says it is in the opposite interests of the BW to attract Seer attention. Pushes the quiet players = evil theory as per usual! About half a Day after everyone else this time. I'm hating this 'code' - I can't remember what any of the letters stand for. Won't vote Greenie as she can't be here. Won't vote Agan because though he thinks she's a Cobbler he thinks she gets good discussion going. To be honest, if you think someone is evil I'd say go after them, but I suppose it's good reasoning.

Inzil: Don't get it. Why bring a comment on Volo in to suggest Nog was the Seer when the comment had no 'certainty' to it. Throws Eomer in as a possible Seer candidate for being 'certain' about Agan - fair point actually. Says that Glirdan voting wilwa means he didn't think her a wolf - I actually wouldn't bet on that. Where I argue with Inzil is the idea that Shasta was 'pushing' Nog as a suggestion. Actually, Shasta's suggestions about Nog were within the same post and then any other discussion was in answer to other people's comments on that post. So I wouldn't have said he was 'pushing' the idea. "Oh, I think potential Seers are a priority for wolves, certainly. But Shasta zeroing in on Nog the way he did to the apparent exclusion of all else is what struck me. " This I feel is inflammatory and unfair.

Lottie: Thinks quieter people or early voters would be more likely Night kills, suggesting Eomer, Form and Elfie (I like that shortening!). Well fair point. Says Eomer might be the BW but that we should leave the BW up to TB. In these early days it is more important to go wolf hunting, but as Shasta says talking about the BW does give TB more information to go on. Thinks Nog and Shasta innocent, thinks Eomer is the BW, thinks wilwa and Inzil are ok and is tempted to vote for Elfie for being quiet or Pitch after yesterDay. Votes Elfie because Pitch hasn't spoken - I like that, giving someone a chance to defend themselves.

Nerwen: Says if Nog were the Wight then Agan would be a cobbler not a wolf anyway. Um, why? Says Eomer doesn't count as a no-trace kill. I'm glad she was as confused by Nog as I was. Votes Agan for overplaying the Cobbler thing, being overly defensive and going after the BW too much.

Elfie: Just one post? Says Lottie seems ok and votes Eomer because he (?) has no idea what he might be. Erm, right, odd. And says Volo seems ok on further consideration. Really strange little post this.

Eomer: Says let TB go after Nog toNight and ignore him from now on. Yeah why not?

Greenie: Doesn't trust people who don't make an effort with their vote, for example Form and Eomer. "Other than that, I'm quite at a loss with why Nog calling Agan a cobbler makes it probable Aganwolf and her pack would think him the Seer who had dreamed her." I love this comment because I think this is the crux of the argument and is where I'm totally lost.

Volo: Thinks Nog might be a wolf because he's tense, but thinks if he were a wolf then he'd be hiding this better. Doesn't think he's the BW. Thinks Agan suspicious for putting forth a way to out the BW which would take attention away from the lynch itself. Well it's a fair reason. Thinks Shasta innocent. Interesting idea that the BW may take against the innocents if outed that way. Thinks Greenie and wilwa look ok, not sure on anyone else. Will likely vote a quiet player.

Form: Nothing in that post except complaints. And a second one!

wilwa: I'm reading these posts having seen Shasta explain that he wasn't only focusing on Nog, he just hadn't had a chance to get further. I don't know whether, had I not seen this already, I'd have read the argument in the same way as wilwa - who says Shasta seemed to think only Nog was a possibility. That said, I still agree that we need to be careful when talking about possible Seers.

Agan - ah, I've realised I've been skimming Agan's posts and not commenting. Well I probably commented on most of what she said when talking about other people. Anyway. Finds Nog, sally, Volo, Nerwen and Shasta guilty. Finds Greenie, wilwa, Pitch and Lottie innocent. Likely to vote Nog, Volo or sally. She has reasoning for everyone, and based on how many discussions and arguments she's been involved in with most of the people named it is pretty extensive.

Votes:
Nerwen - Agan

By the way - Volo made a Freudian slip? What was that?

Oh and Pitch. I didn't mean to offend with my appalling lack of memory. Our dear mod has to give me daily reminders that the game is going on just so I remember to turn up so please don't think it's just you!

Ah and it was Pitch not Nerwen who had that argument with Agan about the rules. Which is funny given this later comment by Pitch: Right. I just checked the rules to find that the Seer, in this game, can actually find out the Cobbler.

Right, posting this then I'll think about a vote.

I wonder why she takes me to task for saying Shasta was too focused on Nog, but seems to give Wilwa a pass for the same thing.

Originally Posted by Kath

Leaning guilty:
Shasta - I think it's great that he's around with ideas and I do think his words have been taken out of context a lot. That said, I think he focuses on the Seer too much and could potentially be a Cobbler taking attention away from the wolves.

Nog - Confusing and rude in tone to Agan.

Inzil - Well maybe being in the middle of the argument alters your view but as I said I thought some of his comments were inflammatory and unfair.

Elfie: Didn't like that single post. Unlikely to vote her because she said she won't be back.

Volo - Is going to be in deep trouble if his style keeps getting him on to this side of the lists. Because that's why he's here - what he's actually said seems ok, but there's something running the wrong way there.

Leaning innocent:
Lottie - Think she's ok.
Eomer.
Greenie.

No idea:
Nerwen
wilwa
Form - and I'm oh so tempted to vote him so the hardship of being here is removed for him.
Agan - there's almost too much surrounding her to be able to decide what to do there. I'm still half inclined to suggest lynching her and be done with it!

Haha I accidentally wrote about wilwa twice! In the first section I conclude she's pretty innocent, in the section I get rather suspicious! I've put her in no idea as a result.

Back in a minute with a vote. Want to check any cross posts first.

Under "Leaning Guilty", has Shasta, Nog, Me, TEW, and Volo. Form is under "No idea".

Originally Posted by Kath

Argh I missed Pitch off - I'm seriously going to be hated soon. If it's any consolation the last post made me think you innocent.

So, vote:

[++FORM
I'm going on principles. Don't want to play? Feel free to leave.

The obvious question is why she voted for Form over someone she actually found suspicious.

Originally Posted by Kath

*sigh* And of course my vote cross posts with Form. Oh well.

Would it have made a difference?

Overall, I'm rather worried about her, mainly for her votes and the reasoning therein.

x/d with Wilwa and Shasta

[A Little Green]

Agan – Seems generally reasonable, and I like it that she really puts an effort into the game. Don't agree with everything she says though.

Eomer – Still not much on him. Not surprised if he's a wolf sitting back and taking it easy. Might deserve a closer look.

Formendacil – Confuses me to no end. I have a hard time seeing him as a wolf, but almost as hard seeing him innocent.

Inziladun – Enigmatic as ever.

Kath – Pays a lot of attention to fair play which I appreciate. In her list post three of her five guilties were there mainly due to being rude or unfair to others. While I'm strictly of the opinion that such behaviour needs to be pointed out and criticised, I don't see it as a sign of wolvery. I can't help thinking that her ”going on principles” -vote would have been the perfect move for a wolf: a reasoned vote that isn't really risky whatever happens later. Her tone seems genuine but I can't shrug off the idea that she might be just fooling me big time. And Inzil's analysis didn't make me feel any better.

Loslote – Hmm. I usually ”catch” her when she's innocent. Now she's been flying under my radar which has me slightly worried, but I have nothing on her apart from that.

Nerwen – Shrewd and smooth as always, no idea as to what her role could be. Might deserve a closer look.

Pitchwife – Quite frankly no idea.

Sally – Haven't seen much of her, which is a pity. Her Day 1 vote wasn't fabulous but I'd be unwilling to vote her unless she turns up as that wouldn't be quite fair, given that her absence is probably due to being ill.

Shasta – I have not ignored the possibility that he might be a wolf, which I do every time he actually is one. Feeling ok at the moment.

The Elf-Warrior – Not sure I like this One Post per Day -attitude though he might be just busy. His posts don't look too good either though there's too little substance to base any proper reasoned opinions on. Might check his posts though, it's not as if that's too big a project.

Wilwa – Seems very genuine to me.

[wilwarin538]

Here (the previous Night he had referred to one Alpha):

Originally Posted by Boro

"I can't believe that just happened" grinned the other Alpha. "Now we know who the Wight is, so it shall be easy to avoid and with no guardian, looks like our fortunes are finally beginning to change."

"Aye" said the last Alpha. "And let us hope it's a seer snack tonight. That will more than fill my hungry stomach."

It was actually from Night 3, but yeah, probably not all that important.

*goes back to taking notes*

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Do you really think a vote for Sally would be constructive, Agan? Perhaps we can technically "afford to lynch another quiet player", but that doesn't mean we should.

More constructive than she has been thus far. And just in case you don't remember, I've suspected her since day 1. (Although it's probably silly to phrase it this way because she hasn't posted since day 1.)

Almost half the players have 10 posts or less, and I'd much rather lynch a quiet one.