WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

And this feels a bit self-conscious, if you don't mind my saying so. As does your first post toDay.

I can see your point, but self-conscious is not a trait I usually associate with Inzilawolf. Actually, I'm feeling pretty good about Zil.

Now, here's where I'd usually make a list, and I started to, before I realized it went like this:

I trust me

I sorta trust Zil

Maybe I could see Nessa as a wolf and if I squint really hard, Valier a little bit?

Everone else is hopeless.

So, I figured it wasn't really work the space necessary to write out all the names.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Maybe I could see Nessa as a wolf and if I squint really hard, Valier a little bit?

Trouble is, I'm not that familiar with Val. I think I've only been in one game with her. I wasn't all that impressed with her vote for me, but obviously all those who joined her weren't evil.
There was this, in which she promised to "help this village rid itself of these baddies", which could have been one of those lupine assertions of innocence.

She started suspecting me here, before anyone had voted for me, but waited over an hour, until both Boro and Kath voted me before she followed suit. A wolf wanting an innocent to go along before committing?

[Kitanna]

Ahem. I don't have the time I thought I would have. I misjudged the DL times with my schedule and I now know this isn't going to work. I just don't have the time to dedicate. That said...

I'm the village hunter. I figure I should give you the choice to lynch me and suggest someone for me to kill with me. I realize this could mean two innocents die if no one agrees and I get lynched and take down an innocent. This plan has problems, but one way or another I won't be alive that much longer, so I thought it'd be worth a shot to try to get a wolf too.

I'm super sorry about this.

EDIT: I only have about nine hours to send the mod god my choice, so if I don't see a consensus I'll just pick who I think is guilty.

[Inziladun]

Hmm. Well, Kit, I hate to hear that. I don't see what you as a baddie would gain by false-revealing as the Hunter, so I'm inclined to believe you. I might say Nessa, just now. Or Val? Hearing people's suggestions could be informative in itself.

[Macalaure]

I'd like to apologise in advance. This post is bigger than I wanted it to be...


The lynch

Lottie is the first to suspect Sally a little. Jokes that she's not responsible if it turns into a bandwaggon. (Inzil criticises this later)
Pitch is annoyed that Sally suspects him for no apparent reason.
Kitanna gives some points against her.
Shasta is bothered that he can't read her.
Agan is the first to suspect her because she's too quiet. She repeats it in another post.

In her big post, Sally goes after Lommy (mildly), Skip, and Pitch.

Pitch defended Sally's quietness before, but then attacks her after her big post. What I don't like is that he continues saying that he doesn't know what to think of her. It's fishy.

Skip accuses her of twisting his words, which will later also be the reason he votes for her (he's second, Nessa leads by 4 at the time). Not a good reason, though.

Wilwa joins later with two posts. She's the first to vote for her, at a time when the vote is already plenty spread out.

Lottie just says Sally still worries her. She will give Sally a crucial third vote (though she said she crossed with Skip).

Lommy could vote for Sally, but doesn't say why. After her vote (4, putting her in the lead) she pulls a Lommy and feels like Sally is probably innocent.

Agan says she will probably vote for Sally for her cobbler comment. She will vote for her later (crossing with Lommy's)

Out of the voters, Wilwa doesn't looks that suspicious and more genuine. Skip doesn't look very bad. Lottie looks fishy. Lommy and Aganzir look bad because they put her in the lead and use bad or little reasons. In any case, though, Sally was not a very likely lynch until very late, so if a wolf was on the line, I'm sure a better person to vote for could have been found. Pitch's behaviour is a bit fishy, as I said.


The dead

Neither Ozban nor Kath were talked about much, so it's most likely they were killed to leave us no trail.

BG looks better (she suspected Ozban, and usually (though not always) you don't kill the people you suspect during the day)
Aganzir looks better (for noting that she never played with him - you don't usually kill those on Day1) (I think Lommy and somebody else also said something like this, but I can't find it anymore)

Ozban is very slightly suspicious of Inzil, Nessa, and Agan. A bit more of Sally. He votes Nessa while rhyming, not giving any more reasons. I suppose it's possible a wolf-Nessa could have thought he was the seer, but I somehow don't believe it.
Kath suspects Inzil, Legate, Wilwa.
This makes Inzil look better. There was no need for him to kill two who slightly suspected him.

Wilwa is the only one who actually goes after Kath a little. This makes her look better (see BG above).

Lommy states she never played with Ozban and is happy to play with Kath again - very unlikely she would sanction killing both of them.


The general voting and how it makes me feel

Cailín -> Aganzir (neutral)
Kitanna -> Pitch (very good, because I agree with her)
Legate -> Lottie (neutral)
Rikae -> Wilwa (neutral)
Inzil -> Nessa (not so happy)
Shasta -> Lottie (not so good)
Boro -> Inzil (bad, because I don't understand why)
Sally -> Pitch(2)
Ozban -> Nessa(2)
Wilwa -> Sally (neutral)
Pitch -> Nessa(3) (baddie-baddie-bad-bad)
Kath -> Inzil(2)
Valier -> Inzil(3) (major eyebrow-raiser)
Nessa -> Rikae (neutral)
Eomer -> Nessa(4) (not good at all - this Nessa-waggon, I don't like it)
Skip -> Sally(2) (not so good)
e-d -> Pitch (neutral)
Lottie -> Sally(3) (not good)
Lommy -> Sally(4) (not good)
Aganzir -> Sally(5) (not good)


General comments

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Greenie has posted a little more at least - mostly joining Mac in seeing cobbler hints in Agan's each and every post; which is entirely possible. I mean, Agan is daring enough to sort of hide in the open, and I remember an Agan-cobbler who talked about the cobbler all the time; but since our primary aim is not to lynch the cobbler but the wolves, I'm disinclined to vote her for the time being.

Greenie is safely under my radar at the moment, so I don't know about her, but you are definitely misinterpreting/misrepresenting what I said. I didn't see Aganzir hinting everywhere, just exactly once, and definitely not in the open, but as concealed as possible. Also, I never intended to vote Aganzir, for exactly the reason you state.

Originally Posted by Pee-Wee

now some people have nothing better to do than looking for the cobbler? I'm looking at you, Mac.

It was by no means the only thing I talked about. I'd also say it's better than the bantering or endless role/rule discussion we see so much on Day1, so come on.

I don't like it how you keep on saying I only talk about Aganzir and cobblers and that that makes you suspicious of me. The fact I suspected you is not the real reason, by any chance?

Originally Posted by Aganzir

No. It won't work - unless the Cobbler says it in the thread. So if the wolves get sally's name tonight, they can go back and realise "Hey, she said this!" I really really really don't like this point.

Interesting. When I accused you of doing exactly this, you didn't understand what I was talking about. Then you say this to Sally. I think if I had actually caught you doing this, you would not direct people's attention to somebody else doing it after "playing dumb" first. You're off the cobbler-hook for now.

Originally Posted by wilwa

It was not in the village's best interest to draw attention to this idea.

Actually it was. As Agan and I said, the cobbler needs to give a hint on the thread. Unless the cobbler already did so and got away with it, it will be pretty hard now.

Originally Posted by Legate

Someone who starts the Day with first post saying "both the kills have something to do with me" is either insane or weird.

Weird, I'd say. Why would you want to put yourself into such a situation on Day2? Inzil got some votes yesterDay, but no major cases brought forward - he was not under immediate pressure to get lynched toDay.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Ok, not sure why certain people today find the lynching of Sally an obvious blunder - we had no idea who to string up!

Maybe I'm paranoid, but this sounds like an attempt to cover up the fact that a fellow wolf was in the running yesterDay, too.

Originally Posted by Inzil

Mac worries me because he's been unnaturally passive, for him. Ordinarily, he's already called for my lynch by now.

I think the former I dealt with now. The latter will have to wait, since I don't suspect you yet.

Seeing all the Ozban-was-the-seer-and-dreamt-of-Nessa talk gives me the idea the wolves might have killed Ozban to frame Nessa and orchestrate an easy lynch for toDay.


Reading over everything, I found myself getting worried about Boro. I will have to reread his posts before I can make my mind up and give reasons.


These are all just thoughts, and some of the stated suspicions contradict. I'll sum this all up later.

-crossed since Kitanna. Oh, man...

[Inziladun]

Wow, Mac. That looks.....pretty darned logical, and well reasoned.

[Valier]

Akk the day has gotten away from me...I'm trying to find time to read everything, but thought I'd better get a few of my thoughts down.
So after forcing myself to read Mac's longggg post (sorry) I actually agree with him on Kath and Ozzy's deaths. I think they would have been easy D1 kills, not overly traceable to anyone in particular. The wolves would have to be seasoned or gungho players to start with a strategic kill on the first night. or they are just going with the flow and killing two "easier" kills. What I don't quite get is why they weren't trying harder to nab the seer? I didn't think either of them was the seer.
On the Kitanna 'sitiation, that sucks that you don't have the time to play Kit, it was nice playing in a game with you again no matter how short. I do think we should come up with a plan to use your going to the villages advantage. Hmmm I'm going to give this some thought.
As to Inzil's suggestion as to you taking me down with Kit, I would want some more evidence as to my guilt. There is no way that I think I should be the one to die. That would be a waste of this chance oportunity. I know it never helps to out and out say your Innocent, that only makes everyone suspect you more....but hey I am and I just wanna stick around and help catch some wolves

[elronds_daughter]

I'll try to give a more substantial post once I've had some sleep, but my feelings at the moment are...

Mac makes sense to me, and I can't seem him being guilty.

Inzil is behaving not at all like the Inzilawolf I have seen before, so I'm inclined to trust him.

I'm mildly worried about almost everyone who killed Sally. The lack of adequate reasoning bewilders me; but, then again, it may just have been Day-1 paranoia.

I still don't like the vibes I'm getting from Pitch.

Eomer worries me. There is a bit too much defensiveness...

Not really sure about other people. Legate is very analytical, but seems to me he's usually like that.

On the whole Kitanna situation...this is highly tragic. There may be tears.

Right, well. Now I've said my piece and I'm off to bed.

[skip spence]

Good Day (if you can call it good and day)

Originally Posted by Lottie

EDIT: xed with Skip

What, you confused my Avatar with Eomer's?

Speaking of the Sally bandwagon and her cobbler idea.

Originally Posted by Legate

But that said, I can see the reason of voting sally because of that. However (and once again when I am fresh, I have to take a look at the bandwaggon for her, to see how big it actually was and who was there), I am inclined to believe that some WWs might have very likely mingled with the crowd there.

Personally I missed that cobbler-hint thingie yesterDay but reading back I get the impression a few of her voters went for her because of that (Wilwa, Agan, Lommy?). Or with that as a pretext. Obviously it would be interesting to find out if there was a werewolf (or wolves?) among the crowd who was in apparent danger of getting lynched. By the crowd I mean Pitch, Lottie, Nessa and Inzil.

Here I think Nessa looks objectively the worst but I also share Mac's concern about a lupine stitch-up, what with the killing of Oz, who I was also surprised to see killed. A set-up for an easy lynch might might be the explanation. Or that Nessa is a frightened wolf. Or neither.

Most people left the voting until late. If there was a ww in that crowd, how would his/her fellows act?

Originally Posted by Legate

If you find that hint in Ozzy's post, I am going to give you a medal. (And then probably lynch you, since I can't see an innocent seeing a Seer see-saw see... something there.

I find this over-the-top defence of unfortunate Ozzy rather suspect to be honest. You wouldn't dream of killing your buddy, eh?

Originally Posted by elrond's daughter

Inzil is behaving not at all like the Inzilawolf I have seen before, so I'm inclined to trust him.

I've seen this sentiment elsewhere and I don't like it. Inzil is shrewd and could of course alter his playing style to suit a particular game. If his ww behaviour was that predictable I wouldn't fear him at all. But I do. Nothing very worrying about Inzil at present though.

Today, and spontaneously, I feel good about Pitch, Rikae and Mac. They all make sense and seem helpful. Though I must question the premiss that making sense is a good sign of innocence.

Getting slightly worried about Legate. Not convinced of Nessa's good intentions either. She was a bit twitchy yesterDay. Also worried about wolves hiding in the crowd. This is such a large village one tends to forget completely about those who rarely comment (and lacks name recognition). Wouldn't be surprised to find at least two among the submarines. But it's always hard to vote for a someone you have no info on.

[Nessa Telrunya]

I'm not so sure if I'll be back close to DL, so I'm gonna go ahead and cast my vote. I'm still really worried about Rikae, and it wouldn't sit right with me to vote some of the other speculated people when it's a whole mess in there.

++Rikae

[Aganzir]

Hey Boro I had a dream Legate mailed someone I study with and told her I had a huge crush on her (I don't). She proceeded to text me to meet her at her favourite bar tonight. Any help?

Now, I'm going to divide people in groups based on what they said of me yesterday.

Found me evil
Mac (I was down as cobbler till he found someone better)
Cailín (voted for me randomly)

Found me good
Shasta (I'm logical and down to earth)
Lottie (I looked almost too good)
Legate ("I am not suspecting Agan - at least not because of what she said, as I believe what she said makes sense. And if she were a Wolf/Cobbler signaling to the Cobbler/Wolves, she would have actually given a more direct hint, I believe. But that is what she does not seem to do, in my opinion.")
ed (Agan doesn't look too bad to me, maybe a little shifty, but I'll have to go back and read through things again)

Didn't reach a conclusion
Pitch ("Agan is daring enough to sort of hide in the open, and I remember an Agan-cobbler who talked about the cobbler all the time; but since our primary aim is not to lynch the cobbler but the wolves, I'm disinclined to vote her for the time being. It's when she starts other people of being the cobbler that I'll get worried about her.")
wilwa (thinks I'm too obvious to be the cobbler which might be the plan)
Rikae (I could be anything)
Lommy (refused to talk about me)

Now, I'm almost certain Mac isn't a wolf. I'm aware I looked cobblerish yesterday. I don't think a wolf would be the first to point it out and suspect me because of it: even though I tend to talk about the cobbler a lot, the wolves simply couldn't be certain it wasn't me.

I'm more concerned about Legate. He seemed to pooh-pooh the confusion around me with "if she was evil she would've dropped more obvious hints!" Legate should realise no real hinting could take place yesterday anyway, so I don't get why he thinks I would've been more direct as a baddie. Basically he says I'm innocent because I didn't do something I wouldn't even have been able to do.

Pitch is interesting as well. He basically says "Agan could be the cobbler but let's not lynch her at least until she starts suspecting others of being the cobbler!" It could possibly be a wolf hinting at a suspected cobbler: "Hey there I see you, now calm down!"

Wilwa reproached me for underlining sally's cobbler thing. Before that she said I looked too obvious to be the cobbler which might be my plan. I find it interesting she never actually seemed to suspect me, though. If you're innocent and someone basically screams cobbler to you, why not act on it?

I find ed's 71 slightly fishy. It's like "I haven't seen anything particularly bad about Agan & Lottie, I should probably go back and check (if I can justify possible future suspicion against them)!"

Originally Posted by wilwa

Agan always refers to unknown people as a 'she', it's her way of protesting against our male-dominated society (at least, that's what I like to think she's doing).

Yeah, for me she is the norm.

Originally Posted by Inzil

Nessa seems off; the "oddsmaking" post just looks like trying to seem helpful. That sort of thing would be understandable in the Endgame, but really, why do that on Day 1, except to say something for the sake of not being a submarine?

I both agree and disagree. It's a good way to seem helpful, but I also think it's good to know where we stand. The wolves are certainly aware of how long they need to stay alive, and so should us.

I guess skip had a point about the seer not leaving trails that point at unknowns, but I don't like it because it can backfire so easily. Skip hasn't played that much yet, though, so I guess past experience might explain it. I'm not feeling overly good about skip though.

Okay then on to today.

I find it somewhat unnerving that within three minutes of the start of the day, Inzil comes in and draws a link between himself and both the dead. A wolf trying to say it before anyone else does?

Originally Posted by Inzil

mainly the Sally-wagon. What were you lot thinking?

That it was extremely thoughtless of sally to post about the cobbler sending her own name first. It's more likely than not that the cobbler had already thought of it, but when it was said aloud on the thread, it minimised the cobbler's risk of death at doing so. One Schuhmacher once suggested on day 1 that the cobbler might do it and he was almost lynched for it, but us wolves basically knew from then on it was him.
As for me, I had just half an hour to read the entire thread and didn't have too much time to think things through. Sally's post jumped out at me more than anyone else's (and just for the sake of it, I didn't actually suspect her for being quiet).

Originally Posted by wilwa

But then Agan went and brought a lot of attention to it, guaranteeing that the baddies saw it (so the wolves may have assumed the name they received belongs to their Cobbler).

It's idealistic to think the baddies wouldn't have seen it - they are usually the keenest readers of because they need to find the gifteds.

Originally Posted by Legate

Of course, there is the possibility that either of the kills was suggested to the Wolves by the Cobbler. However, it would be a rather weird pick, in my opinion.

I doubt it. The wolves couldn't afford to kill the one the cobbler suggested, just on the offhand chance it was the cobbler herself.

Originally Posted by Legate on the sallywagon

I am inclined to believe that some WWs might have very likely mingled with the crowd there.

I can't remember right off who voted for her, but I'm actually inclined not to think so. Would the wolves risk voting for someone who basically said "the cobbler will suggest herself first"?

Aww Kit! That's a pity because I had looked forward to playing with you.

Mac not that it probably matters but I xed since an earlier post of Lommy's, therefore not only with her but also Lottie's vote.

Originally Posted by Mac

When I accused you of doing exactly this, you didn't understand what I was talking about. Then you say this to Sally.

I didn't - because I wasn't doing "exactly that". I found it way more likely they'd try to establish connection about the same way I hinted to you, and that's the kind of comments I intended to keep an eye on. Sending one's own name is highly risky unless it's discussed on the thread before, and that's why I refused to make fun of you in one of my early posts.

This is ridiculous given our history and all, but at the moment I actually find Mac the most innocent-looking.

Originally Posted by Boro

now that I've seen how the mind of the Alpha Female Scar works.

Originally Posted by Legate on Kit

It is somehow dumb, but if it's possible, I would most prefer the idea of keeping you around as a "known innocent", and kill you only at some point when you really cannot go on.

I agree - the longer we can postpone killing the hunter, the better the chances she gets a wolf. But that of course depends on Kit.

Originally Posted by Nessa

I'm not so sure about the cobbler-wolf hinting theory. It was way to conspicuous to be something planned, not to mention the idea had already been brought up.

What exactly is this theory you're talking about?

[Macalaure]

Boro

#11 - nothing of consequence.

#45 - wow. This looks like a real solid contribution at first glance, but it's not. All he says is that he can't read Aganzir, without giving any actual in-game points, making a comment about my drawer-mantelpiece stuff, joking about Kath, defending Pitch, and talk about how he skims the thread.

#56/#57 - joking around with Inzil and some role-talk.

#95 - four(!) paragraphs defending the role-and-rule talk against Wilwa. Defends Pitch pretty staunchly (note is awareness of and worry about a possible bandwaggon).

#103 - says he's going to vote for one of those he forgot were playing: Lommy, Manwe, Nessa, Greenie, Shasta among them. Some chatter with Lommy, too.

#112 - buries the hatchet with Wilwa.

#124 - chatters around a little. Lists Eomer and Greenie as possible votes, because they didn't catch his eye enough. Then votes Inzil for a fairly stupid reason. Inzil had no votes at this point and, I think, no major suspicions thrown his way.

All Boro actually does is defend Pitch. This means he's either a wolf and Pitch his companion, or it's the other thing. Neither explains his total lack of trying to suspect anybody for a remotely serious reason. Since I suspect Pitch quite a bit, I can't help but suspect Boro a lot, too.

[Boromir88]

I'm not sure why everyone gets surprised when Kath winds up killed. She's a smart and astute player. Always gives a thorough read through of the posts and then gives her opinions.

Ozban, no clue, played with him once before and it looks like a no-trace, but I'm always surprised at packs who go for no-trace over the seer. Maybe this pack feels like they can avoid the seer for a while by hiding in the masses?

Originally Posted by Macalaure

All Boro actually does is defend Pitch. This means he's either a wolf and Pitch his companion, or it's the other thing. Neither explains his total lack of trying to suspect anybody for a remotely serious reason. Since I suspect Pitch quite a bit, I can't help but suspect Boro a lot, too.

I work backwards as I always find it hard to come up with suspicions on Day 1. I mean, just because someone disagrees with you about roles or mechanics doesn't mean that person's a wolf. So, I try to start taking out people I do not want to get lynched and then go from there, by looking at the votes and whether I should vote for someone who's already been voted for or add another name.

Some of my banter and joking may look useless to you, but to me, I think I've already gotten a good idea on several players.

Pitch has a nickname that seems stuck with him forever, Mr. Agreeable, and this usually gets him suspected early and often. With the unexplained uneasy feelings and Pitch being agreeable, I saw the same thing happening yesterday. Maybe he is a wolf, but I'm not his companion.

Lommy yelled at me for questioning the sanity of her mind. It looked like a big-little sisterly thing to do. We were joking (at least I was, she would probably say it was a jerk thing for me to say ), but gave me a good feeling about Lommy.

Agan was up to something, but she'd be up to something no matter the role. Obvious to point out, yes, but I wanted to give more time to figure her out, now that I've seen how the mind of the Alpha Female Scar works.

I'm used to taking notice of Greenie, Eomer, and Inzil and I really wasn't yesterday. Greenie because she's completely blind-sided me as a wolf before, when I said something on how she looks so sweet and innocent, and Nog warned me of her sharp-claws and fangs side.

Eomer, much like morm, tends to be aggressive and pretty confident of his decisions.

Inzil, I've had a good read on him in the past, and he's usually one of the more "straight to business" people, but couldn't remember any of his posts other than not having a pillow.

You should know, Mac, once the information from the lynches and kills is known, I become my most annoying and biggest thorn in people's sides. I find Day 1's difficult to get through, just choose not to gripe about them that much.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Lottie just says Sally still worries her. She will give Sally a crucial third vote (though she said she crossed with Skip).

I would just like to point something out. You say that "she said she crossed". I'm sure you're not insinuating that I lied about that, but I thought I might as well point out that lying about a cross post is, in my mind (and, I think, in most everyone's) very bad form. I assure you, if I say I've cross posted, I cross posted. And I don't even mean that thing where you reply and see the post before you hit submit but don't really read it, either. Anyway, I know you didn't mean anything by it, but I didn't want anyone else to read that and assume that you thought I'd lied about it.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Here and reading, for the next hour or so. I'll see how much analysis I can get done in that time.