WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[Mänwe]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I think I'll actually have to follow the old ball and chain and vote for someone who should be loud, but isn't, and who is making me uneasy, and who I have other reasons to wonder about, namely:

++Boro

One for you Rikae when you're back (hope you had a wonderful evening out!) - or indeed anyone who has played in more than two WW games with a person who is currently playing - does the pattern of a players behaviour really not change often from game to game, such that any change makes them suspect?

Either way, I won't vote for Boro yet I don't think he's said anything more suspicious that marks him out more than some other players.

At the moment I am inclined to remain watchful of the extremes, and will vote against the establishment here who seem to have overlooked by and large the players i've mentioned in my past posts. I wish I were the seer in order to confirm a couple of suspicions ive held since the beginning. A wolf hides in the extremes...

++elronds_daughter is someone i've mentioned in my posts, largely popping in to vote only, i'm voting for an extreme.

~~

Pitch- tsk ala Mr. Anton "what's the most you ever lost on a coin toss" Chigurh.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Mänwe

largely popping in to vote only, i'm voting for an extreme.

Says who?

I might vote for ed but lynching her would mean an extra day of having to wonder about the Inzil/Nessa thing and I'm not sure I want that.

[Mänwe]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Says who?

I've only popped in to vote once...E_D has twice and soon to be thrice

[Boromir88]

Here. I think Inzil and/or Nessa would clear up the weight hanging over the council so far and clear things up for my own head.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I think it would be a bad idea to lynch her toDay for the same reason I thought it was to lynch her or Inzil yesterDay

I agree. The wolves obviously want us to check her out which points at her being innocent. But even if she's actually a wolf and they're double bluffing, we can afford to wait.

I am wondering about Rikae. She's the first to spring to mind when I think of a wolf genius who could easily manipulate the village with kills like these, but I'm still not sure she would've taken all the actions she has if she's a wolf. My paranoid side would like to lynch her, but I'm not going to do that just because "she could also have done that as a wolf."

Originally Posted by skip

I'm beginning to think your lovely non-downer friend might have a point.

I don't, at least for now. But I'm seriously going to kill Mac & Rikae if they're wolves together. (Oh and I'm also going to be mad if Shasta is a wolf because Sappho was originally assigned to me and I would therefore be a wolf if we hadn't changed it.)

Originally Posted by skip

Guess that Boro as the cobbler makes sense. If he is, do we let him get away with that?

If we lynch an innocent today, it's 5-6 tomorrow. If we lynch a wolf, it's 4-8, with a tiny tiny chance the baddies can't yet communicate. If we lynch the cobbler, it's 4-7.
And if we lynch an innocent today and the cobbler tomorrow (or the other way round), it won't be of any help because it will be 4-4 the day after tomorrow.

If it wasn't for the double kills I'd be willing to try our luck with Boro today, but this time getting rid of the wolves is so much more important I'm not sure.

Originally Posted by Legate

And what of newbie Wolves? I can imagine it.

I'm under the impression Nessa isn't exactly a newbie.

Originally Posted by Legate

If Boro is the Cobbler, then I would say either Rikae and/or Mac and/or Agan are Wolves, or maybe all of them.

What's your explanation for Rikae & Mac voting for their cobbler yesterday when there were more convenient lynch candidates?
Also just saying that if Boro was my cobbler, I could definitely find a more discreet way of contacting him than saying "he reminds me of Cobblemir of old."

Speaking of which... I asked you something, Legate. I'd like to get an answer/clarification.

I need to go soon but I'll be back in some hours.

[A Little Green]

Oh, just remembered to ask this: Nessa, what were your reasons for voting Legate yesterDay?


EDIT: x-ed with Legs

[wilwarin538]

I agree that we would be best to leave Nessa alone for now. It really feels like a set-up on the part of the wolves, and I don't want to walk in to that. Even if she actually was a wolf, there are still 3 others that we could get instead. I just think Nessa is a bit of a risk.

Boro could be the Cobbler, he's likely not Gifted or a Wolf because he would be far more helpful. Perhaps he's a bored ordo? But I don't remember Boro ever acting that way as an Ordo. So yes, Cobbler seems the most likely. And according to Agan's math (Math?!? she must be a wolf! ) lynching the Cobbler does no good, so we leave him be.

Originally Posted by Agan

What's your explanation for Rikae & Mac voting for their cobbler yesterday when there were more convenient lynch candidates?

That's asuming the Wolves know who their Cobbler is. Though I do believe the Cobbler likely sent in their own name the first Night, there is a chance they didn't, or that the Wolves didn't realise that's what they were doing. We can't totally assume the Wolves know their Cobbler (and hope that they don't).

I'm going to go make my own list, try to figure out how I feel about everyone (I already know that there will be quite a few I'm unsure of, partly because I haven't been around enough, and partly cause there are a few who also haven't been around enough)

x'ed with 1 Legate

[A Little Green]

Elra - Her votes are rather bandwagonish, like I said before, even their reasons are often either directly or indirectly relying on arguments made by others. Her phrasings look somewhat fishy and her votes are easy. I'm not convinced though, she says it's her style, and I'm not sure a wolf would be going with the flow so blatantly.

Macalaure - His "apart from what I said before" in reasoning his Lottie vote on Day 2 is interesting. He does say that her vote the Day before was "not good", but after that he lists her as "not really suspicious, but not really innocent either". An innocent can have their opinion change and forget that he didn't actually say it anywhere in the thread. However, I could also see a Macwolf trying to make his vote look like it was grounded on some earlier suspicion that doesn't seem to be there after all. I'd like some thoughts on this one, I'm puzzled. Boro does look cobblerish, which would speak against Mac being a wolf. His vote for Boro out of the blue yesterDay would be a foolish move if he was a wolf and Boro the cobbler.

Shasta - Has only voted for known innocents this far. (That applies to myself as well though, so I'm not the one to start suspecting him for that alone.) He's an enigma to me at the moment, I'd like to look through his posts at some point. I'd like to know, though, if it was a consistent suspicion or simple coincidence that made him vote Lottie twice but with different reasons.

Wilwa - Also has voted for only known innocents this far. Her Day 1 vote for Sally makes me think her innocent, she voted Sally for supposedly leaving a cobbler hint. Sally's post did look like one, which makes me inclined to think a wolf would not have wanted to lynch Sally. Wilwa was the first to vote Sally, and seemed to take the whole issue rather seriously, not talking openly about it at first in hopes of the wolves missing the hint. She also gave more elaborate reasons for voting Inzil than most others.

Nessa - She has voted very independently. I'm not sure of the soundness of her arguments against Rikae, and would love to hear why she voted Legate. Could be a wolf distancing herself from the lynches, could be independent-minded innocent.

Pitchwife - Has only voted for the two "enigmas" Nessa and Inzil, and the votes are always placed 3rd or 4th (which might also have to do with time issues). If both Inzil and Nessa were set up by the wolves to distract the village, Pitch looks pretty bad. If Nessa is a wolf, Pitch likely isn't - bandwagoning against a fellow in danger twice in a row would be foolish, considering how big an advantage the pack gets from being all together.

Rikae - The retraction on Day 2 would have been a pointless move for a wolf (which, if she is a wolf, would be precisely why she did it). The same thing as with Mac though: if Boro is indeed the cobbler, she is likely not a wolf.

Boro - Possible cobbler. I have a hard time seeing him as a wolf, he seems too uninvolved and too disinclined to manipulate. Could be bored ordo as well, but then, I remember Borordos who have been really involved and in the middle of things.

Skip - Has a track record of easy votes. Day 1 he votes Sally on an "icky feeling", Day 2 Elra for being a submarine, Day 3 Nessa. I'm still of the opinion that a wolf would not have wanted to lynch Sally on Day 1 unless they missed the hint that wasn't a hint. Other than that, Skip doesn't look too good to me.

Mänwe - There's still a bit too little to go on here to say anything for sure.

Legate - He has this miserable air of always ending up voting Nessa against his will. If Nessa is a wolf, I doubt Legate is one, because it would seem foolish that in tight voting situations he would end up voting a fellow wolf by elimination method. He's giving me good vibes in general right now.

Aganzir - Her votes look fishy by themselves, but taking into account her reasons for them they look a lot better I think. And the Sally thing is also true of Agan, who sealed Sally's fate with her vote. Also, I wonder - she made quite a show of dropping cobbler hints on Day 1, and then gets really upset when Sally does the same. Leaning innocent.

Cailín - Looks fishy. Her votes are no more bandwagonish than, say, Agan's, but her reasons behind them look fabricated to me. I'll be going through her posts toDay.


EDIT: x-ed with two Legs and a Butterfly

[wilwarin538]

So mostly on feeling, or just on their tone. I'll take a closer look at the people in my last two categories, to get a stronger feeling, when I get back.

Think are probably fine
Nessa
Greenie
Skip
Agan

Haven't the slightest
Mac & Rikae (putting them here because I want to trust them, but am now paranoid that one of them is being sneaky)
Pitch
Legate (again, want to trust, but not sure)
Cailin

Feel off
e_d
Shasta
Boro (though I'm leaning Cobbler)
Manwe (this might sound weird, but it's because he doesn't post much, but posts as if he's contributing a lot...I hope that makes sense)

x'ed with Greenie

[Nessa Telrunya]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Oh, just remembered to ask this: Nessa, what were your reasons for voting Legate yesterDay?


EDIT: x-ed with Legs

Something about the phrasing is starting to set off those little mental alarms I have. After the Night kills, Legate sounds astoundingly like a gloating wolf. Also, with my Rikae suspicion waning, the obvious candidates would have been the major bandwagons(Inzil) but I can't in good conscience vote in the middle of a bandwagon. I've found that mostly they rely on popular opinion rather than solid evidence, and it's too easy to get sucked in without really thinking about what you're doing. And since I didn't want to vote otherwise, I figured I may as well go with my suspicion of Legate, and get a new name out for consideration.

[skip spence]

Yes Nessa must really love to puzzle us

Originally Posted by Agan

I really don't like skip's Greenie analysis - I'm not convinced of Greenie's innocence either, but it looks nastily opportunistic even though he says he won't vote for her today.

Don't know what you mean. I'm not convinced of anyone's innocence (including yours) but my verdict is basically "no idea" and "won't vote for her". What is it that looks opportunistic?

[Aganzir]

wilwa - ed
Nessa - Legate

Left: ed, Mac, Shasta, Pitch, Rikae, Boro, Green, skip, Mänwe, Legate, Agan, Cailín?

Okay I'm not voting for Cailín today. I have nothing against her other than a feeling. So for me it's probably either skip or Pitch, or Shasta (depending on how my analysis turns out... I might just not finish it today though.)

[elronds_daughter]

Originally Posted by Mänwe

I've only popped in to vote once...E_D has twice and soon to be thrice

I don't only "pop in"...I'm around all day reading, I just generally don't have any input worth putting in. No lightbulbs, and my non-strategical brain is still getting the hang of this. I'm not nonexistent, I'm just not particularly vocal. Mostly I'm afraid of sticking my foot in my mouth like I did last game.

But. Vote.

++Nessa

If we're wrong, we're wrong (and that's mostly terrible), but at least my biggest question mark will answered.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Mänwe

++elronds_daughter is someone i've mentioned in my posts, largely popping in to vote only, i'm voting for an extreme.

I would have seconded that, alas, I think it'd be a throwaway vote at this point, now that I see how many people are left to vote. I am not objecting either of Zil or Nessa, like I said, though if I could, I'd have preferred others... but let's just hope that the death of either of them will bring something good.

I will probably go for Nessa, then. Just a last look...

(probably xed since my last)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, here goes my vote, and I won't probably have time to comment on anything at all in the end, but then, hopefully toMorrow if I am alive...

++Nessa

*hopes for the best*

[Aganzir]

Greenie -> Inzil
Blind G -> Nessa
wilwa -> Inzil2
Skip -> Nessa2
Mac -> Boro
Rikae -> Boro2
Nessa -> Legate
Inzil -> Boro3
Shasta -> Inzil3
Pitchie -> Inzil4
Cailín -> Inzil 5
Mänwe -> Elron Hub
Eomer - Nessa 3
Legate - Nessa 4

Hmm.

[Aganzir]

++Inzil

Nessa didn't even try to save herself yesterday. Not sure a wolf would do that.

[Boromir88]

Guess this cements it

++Inzil

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Just vote early enough, folks... not to miss the DL.. and right now I'll really prefer Nessa to go, I think...

EDIT: x-ed, all right...