WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[Mänwe]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Says who?

I've only popped in to vote once...E_D has twice and soon to be thrice

[Boromir88]

Here. I think Inzil and/or Nessa would clear up the weight hanging over the council so far and clear things up for my own head.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I think it would be a bad idea to lynch her toDay for the same reason I thought it was to lynch her or Inzil yesterDay

I agree. The wolves obviously want us to check her out which points at her being innocent. But even if she's actually a wolf and they're double bluffing, we can afford to wait.

I am wondering about Rikae. She's the first to spring to mind when I think of a wolf genius who could easily manipulate the village with kills like these, but I'm still not sure she would've taken all the actions she has if she's a wolf. My paranoid side would like to lynch her, but I'm not going to do that just because "she could also have done that as a wolf."

Originally Posted by skip

I'm beginning to think your lovely non-downer friend might have a point.

I don't, at least for now. But I'm seriously going to kill Mac & Rikae if they're wolves together. (Oh and I'm also going to be mad if Shasta is a wolf because Sappho was originally assigned to me and I would therefore be a wolf if we hadn't changed it.)

Originally Posted by skip

Guess that Boro as the cobbler makes sense. If he is, do we let him get away with that?

If we lynch an innocent today, it's 5-6 tomorrow. If we lynch a wolf, it's 4-8, with a tiny tiny chance the baddies can't yet communicate. If we lynch the cobbler, it's 4-7.
And if we lynch an innocent today and the cobbler tomorrow (or the other way round), it won't be of any help because it will be 4-4 the day after tomorrow.

If it wasn't for the double kills I'd be willing to try our luck with Boro today, but this time getting rid of the wolves is so much more important I'm not sure.

Originally Posted by Legate

And what of newbie Wolves? I can imagine it.

I'm under the impression Nessa isn't exactly a newbie.

Originally Posted by Legate

If Boro is the Cobbler, then I would say either Rikae and/or Mac and/or Agan are Wolves, or maybe all of them.

What's your explanation for Rikae & Mac voting for their cobbler yesterday when there were more convenient lynch candidates?
Also just saying that if Boro was my cobbler, I could definitely find a more discreet way of contacting him than saying "he reminds me of Cobblemir of old."

Speaking of which... I asked you something, Legate. I'd like to get an answer/clarification.

I need to go soon but I'll be back in some hours.

[A Little Green]

Oh, just remembered to ask this: Nessa, what were your reasons for voting Legate yesterDay?


EDIT: x-ed with Legs

[wilwarin538]

I agree that we would be best to leave Nessa alone for now. It really feels like a set-up on the part of the wolves, and I don't want to walk in to that. Even if she actually was a wolf, there are still 3 others that we could get instead. I just think Nessa is a bit of a risk.

Boro could be the Cobbler, he's likely not Gifted or a Wolf because he would be far more helpful. Perhaps he's a bored ordo? But I don't remember Boro ever acting that way as an Ordo. So yes, Cobbler seems the most likely. And according to Agan's math (Math?!? she must be a wolf! ) lynching the Cobbler does no good, so we leave him be.

Originally Posted by Agan

What's your explanation for Rikae & Mac voting for their cobbler yesterday when there were more convenient lynch candidates?

That's asuming the Wolves know who their Cobbler is. Though I do believe the Cobbler likely sent in their own name the first Night, there is a chance they didn't, or that the Wolves didn't realise that's what they were doing. We can't totally assume the Wolves know their Cobbler (and hope that they don't).

I'm going to go make my own list, try to figure out how I feel about everyone (I already know that there will be quite a few I'm unsure of, partly because I haven't been around enough, and partly cause there are a few who also haven't been around enough)

x'ed with 1 Legate

[A Little Green]

Elra - Her votes are rather bandwagonish, like I said before, even their reasons are often either directly or indirectly relying on arguments made by others. Her phrasings look somewhat fishy and her votes are easy. I'm not convinced though, she says it's her style, and I'm not sure a wolf would be going with the flow so blatantly.

Macalaure - His "apart from what I said before" in reasoning his Lottie vote on Day 2 is interesting. He does say that her vote the Day before was "not good", but after that he lists her as "not really suspicious, but not really innocent either". An innocent can have their opinion change and forget that he didn't actually say it anywhere in the thread. However, I could also see a Macwolf trying to make his vote look like it was grounded on some earlier suspicion that doesn't seem to be there after all. I'd like some thoughts on this one, I'm puzzled. Boro does look cobblerish, which would speak against Mac being a wolf. His vote for Boro out of the blue yesterDay would be a foolish move if he was a wolf and Boro the cobbler.

Shasta - Has only voted for known innocents this far. (That applies to myself as well though, so I'm not the one to start suspecting him for that alone.) He's an enigma to me at the moment, I'd like to look through his posts at some point. I'd like to know, though, if it was a consistent suspicion or simple coincidence that made him vote Lottie twice but with different reasons.

Wilwa - Also has voted for only known innocents this far. Her Day 1 vote for Sally makes me think her innocent, she voted Sally for supposedly leaving a cobbler hint. Sally's post did look like one, which makes me inclined to think a wolf would not have wanted to lynch Sally. Wilwa was the first to vote Sally, and seemed to take the whole issue rather seriously, not talking openly about it at first in hopes of the wolves missing the hint. She also gave more elaborate reasons for voting Inzil than most others.

Nessa - She has voted very independently. I'm not sure of the soundness of her arguments against Rikae, and would love to hear why she voted Legate. Could be a wolf distancing herself from the lynches, could be independent-minded innocent.

Pitchwife - Has only voted for the two "enigmas" Nessa and Inzil, and the votes are always placed 3rd or 4th (which might also have to do with time issues). If both Inzil and Nessa were set up by the wolves to distract the village, Pitch looks pretty bad. If Nessa is a wolf, Pitch likely isn't - bandwagoning against a fellow in danger twice in a row would be foolish, considering how big an advantage the pack gets from being all together.

Rikae - The retraction on Day 2 would have been a pointless move for a wolf (which, if she is a wolf, would be precisely why she did it). The same thing as with Mac though: if Boro is indeed the cobbler, she is likely not a wolf.

Boro - Possible cobbler. I have a hard time seeing him as a wolf, he seems too uninvolved and too disinclined to manipulate. Could be bored ordo as well, but then, I remember Borordos who have been really involved and in the middle of things.

Skip - Has a track record of easy votes. Day 1 he votes Sally on an "icky feeling", Day 2 Elra for being a submarine, Day 3 Nessa. I'm still of the opinion that a wolf would not have wanted to lynch Sally on Day 1 unless they missed the hint that wasn't a hint. Other than that, Skip doesn't look too good to me.

Mänwe - There's still a bit too little to go on here to say anything for sure.

Legate - He has this miserable air of always ending up voting Nessa against his will. If Nessa is a wolf, I doubt Legate is one, because it would seem foolish that in tight voting situations he would end up voting a fellow wolf by elimination method. He's giving me good vibes in general right now.

Aganzir - Her votes look fishy by themselves, but taking into account her reasons for them they look a lot better I think. And the Sally thing is also true of Agan, who sealed Sally's fate with her vote. Also, I wonder - she made quite a show of dropping cobbler hints on Day 1, and then gets really upset when Sally does the same. Leaning innocent.

Cailín - Looks fishy. Her votes are no more bandwagonish than, say, Agan's, but her reasons behind them look fabricated to me. I'll be going through her posts toDay.


EDIT: x-ed with two Legs and a Butterfly

[wilwarin538]

So mostly on feeling, or just on their tone. I'll take a closer look at the people in my last two categories, to get a stronger feeling, when I get back.

Think are probably fine
Nessa
Greenie
Skip
Agan

Haven't the slightest
Mac & Rikae (putting them here because I want to trust them, but am now paranoid that one of them is being sneaky)
Pitch
Legate (again, want to trust, but not sure)
Cailin

Feel off
e_d
Shasta
Boro (though I'm leaning Cobbler)
Manwe (this might sound weird, but it's because he doesn't post much, but posts as if he's contributing a lot...I hope that makes sense)

x'ed with Greenie

[Pitchwife]

Present and reading to catch up.

[Nessa Telrunya]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Oh, just remembered to ask this: Nessa, what were your reasons for voting Legate yesterDay?


EDIT: x-ed with Legs

Something about the phrasing is starting to set off those little mental alarms I have. After the Night kills, Legate sounds astoundingly like a gloating wolf. Also, with my Rikae suspicion waning, the obvious candidates would have been the major bandwagons(Inzil) but I can't in good conscience vote in the middle of a bandwagon. I've found that mostly they rely on popular opinion rather than solid evidence, and it's too easy to get sucked in without really thinking about what you're doing. And since I didn't want to vote otherwise, I figured I may as well go with my suspicion of Legate, and get a new name out for consideration.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

I can't in good conscience vote in the middle of a bandwagon. I've found that mostly they rely on popular opinion rather than solid evidence, and it's too easy to get sucked in without really thinking about what you're doing. And since I didn't want to vote otherwise, I figured I may as well go with my suspicion of Legate, and get a new name out for consideration.

You know, it's hard to lynch anyone without a bandwagon.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Manwe

#213 - Mentions that he'd like to see more from anyone with three or less posts, which is funny, because this is his first post of the game. Specifically mentions Cailin, BG, Greenie, and Elronhubbard. Of these, Cailin is "accountable, just" and the rest are "unaccountable".

#331 - Defends the quieter folk, here -

Originally Posted by Manwe

Quieter folk are the easiest to tarnish with the same brush and leave the greater possibility for a judgement error on behalf of their would be jurors. Although I would concede the more quiet the less likely you are to say something that'll give you away. But this reminds me of something Rikae mentioned that irked me a little

I don't see how some of the most talkative ones can be considered more helpful due to the possibility that every word they say is designed to mislead or indeed because they write so long a post people don't want to read it

Quiet can't be so black or white, for in those names that Legate mentioned there are those who have made the odd post, and those that have popped in to vote; two very different quiet "strategies" if you will...elronds_daughter being case in point with two very wild votes.

...which seems odd to me, considering his only previous post calls out the quiet ones.

He also asks Legate to clarify a question regarding Kath/Ozban and Greenie not wanting to vote either one.

#343 - Notes Rikae' clarifcation about the point he mentioned not liking earlier.

#428 - Asks if playstyles really don't change that much from game to game. Won't vote for Boro. Wishes he were the Seer [?]. Will vote for an 'extreme' because a wolf hides there. Votes Elronhubbard. Makes a point of saying that she's 'one he has mentioned in his posts' as if he's defending his vote before ever being asked - "It's okay that I voted her, I mentioned her as slightly suspicious already!"

#438 - Defends his vote.

Originally Posted by Manwe

I've only popped in to vote once...E_D has twice and soon to be thrice

#477 - Mentions that everyone has 'overlooked the quiet players, vote-wise'. I wonder why he mentions this - it's another flipflop on quiet players, in my opinion. Three posts ago he was defending the quiet players, and a post before that he was calling them out.

Originally Posted by Manwe

"Throwaway" because she hasn't "said" as much as other players and so there isn't much to go on? My vote is based on suspicion like anyone elses, not to mention the fact it looked rather clear everyone had it in for Inzil before I voted and not to mention the fact that every majority vote has ended in an innocent being lynched so i'm glad i'm not listening to the majority

Regarding his Elronhubbard vote. Now, to me, this looks like a rather hasty defense, and what does 'it looked rather clear everyone had it in for Inzil before I voted' mean? Are we keeping our hands clean, Manwe? The third point has no bearing on anything.
He mentions people that are alive and have been getting votes "wrong" -

Originally Posted by Manwe

Dead Sally: Wilwa, skip, Agan

Dead Loslote: Shasta, Cailín, Mac, e_d

Dead Inzil: LG, wilwa, Shasta, Pitch, Cailín, Aganzir, Boro

That's rather a lot of players to throw suspicion on.

Oh, and he immediately backtracks when Elronhubbard herself comments on his vote -

Originally Posted by Manwe

That's all I meant, my intention was to just highlight your style in this game so far, that you don't post often other than to vote (like me to be fair)..(and you list the reasons why, be they true or not)

Conclusion - Manwe's opinion on quiet players changes three times in six posts. He asks Legate for clarification on a point that he never follows up on (to act like he's being active, maybe? Asking questions does look like activity), his several defenses of his Elronhubbard vote look jumpy to me AND there's backtracking going on (and the reason for that vote to begin with was shoddy), he tries to throw suspicion on about eight people at once with his 'getting votes wrong' post. I think Manwe is the first person to enter my 'Red' category.

[Macalaure]

Except for a little skirmishing with Pitch at the beginning, people were thinking I'm innocent all the time. Glad that seems to be changing now.

*takes off velvet gloves*

Originally Posted by Skip

Your analysis treats her as an innocent.

As I've shown, the conclusions are almost identical even if Nessa is not included.

If we assume that Boro is the cobbler, a Mac-wolf's vote for Boro-cobbler (whom he probably knows the identity of) also makes sense to me, given that his long analysis is built on the Inzil/Nessa trail as an obvious set-up, and that he is casting suspicion on just about everyone who's partaken in it, and by implication making it a moral high-ground to stay away from it. He wouldn't have thought Boro would go end up lynched anyway I think, and if an accident were to happen, that wouldn't have been that bad for team-evil anyway. Hardly a problem at all in fact, given Agan's maths.

Your argument fails in multiple ways:
-If I just wanted to stay away from the Nessa/Inzil waggons, I could have voted anybody. Why needlessly endanger the cobbler?
-You seem to assume that I already had the whole Nessa/Inzil analysis ready before Inzil was actually dead, and before people started acting extremely suspicious after I left.
-I am not suspecting everybody who took a part in it: I suspect Pitch, Agan, and Legate significantly less than you, Cailín, and Shasta.


I like how you probe into the possibility of lynching the cobbler and immediately jump away from it after Rikae called you on it. Nice try Skipwolf

[skip spence]

Yes Nessa must really love to puzzle us

Originally Posted by Agan

I really don't like skip's Greenie analysis - I'm not convinced of Greenie's innocence either, but it looks nastily opportunistic even though he says he won't vote for her today.

Don't know what you mean. I'm not convinced of anyone's innocence (including yours) but my verdict is basically "no idea" and "won't vote for her". What is it that looks opportunistic?

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Maybe I'm suffering from the mentioned desire of wanting to see suspicious behaviour by a suspect, but Shasta's case of Mänwe looks like he's pushing for another silent scapegoat now that Nessa is falling out of favour at last, and his case of Cailín like some mild wolf-on-wolfing.

Well I wasn't suspicious of Shasta per se (it was more like, "he's been slipping under my radar but his being a wolf would fit the picture nicely") but that's exactly what I thought when I saw his cases.

Also, if Mac turns out to be a wolf, I'm going to start to vote consistently for the player I find the most innocent-looking.

Originally Posted by skip spence

Don't know what you mean. I'm not convinced of anyone's innocence (including yours) but my verdict is basically "no idea" and "won't vote for her". What is it that looks opportunistic?

Something about the tone: it struck me as if you were trying to phrase things so that they would sound bad. But now I went and read it again and it actually reminds me of my way of analysing people (in the sense that you don't just sum up what the analysed has said but consider what their actions might mean and stuff) and now I don't know anymore. Skip you drive me mad!

edit: xed with Shasta. Sorry.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Also, if Mac turns out to be a wolf, I'm going to start to vote consistently for the player I find the most innocent-looking.

You and me both.

And with that, I'm completely caught up. Nice to see I've been stamped, labeled, and filed away. This is for posterity, so be honest, is anyone going to listen to me at this point or should I just slide on into the background and make a vote?

[skip spence]

Okay, right this moment I'd consider voting:

Nessa (who I still think might be a wolf)
Mac (though I'm afraid I've taken his attack on me personally and that this clouds my judgement)
elrond's_daughter or Mänwe (I'd hate to lose to a submarine and I think at least one of them is a wolf)
Possibly:
Shasta (very smooth customer though I've not had enough of a look at him to feel remotely confident)
Cailin (too bad she isn't here though)
Legate (though I'd rather not)

[elronds_daughter]

Right. I'm trying to read through everything, but it seems I've missed more toDay than I have other days. Hopefully I'll be able to digest enough in the next half-hour.

[Aganzir]

wilwa - ed
Nessa - Legate

Left: ed, Mac, Shasta, Pitch, Rikae, Boro, Green, skip, Mänwe, Legate, Agan, Cailín?

Okay I'm not voting for Cailín today. I have nothing against her other than a feeling. So for me it's probably either skip or Pitch, or Shasta (depending on how my analysis turns out... I might just not finish it today though.)

[Aganzir]

Pitch how about we didn't vote for Boro today even if he doesn't speak? We need to get a wolf and it's improbable he's one.

edit: xed with Greenie. I've actually said so pretty much since day 2.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Agan

The names the cobbler had sent to the wolves.

Ah. True.

[elronds_daughter]

Originally Posted by Mänwe

I've only popped in to vote once...E_D has twice and soon to be thrice

I don't only "pop in"...I'm around all day reading, I just generally don't have any input worth putting in. No lightbulbs, and my non-strategical brain is still getting the hang of this. I'm not nonexistent, I'm just not particularly vocal. Mostly I'm afraid of sticking my foot in my mouth like I did last game.

But. Vote.

++Nessa

If we're wrong, we're wrong (and that's mostly terrible), but at least my biggest question mark will answered.