WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[Nessa Telrunya]

So there goes Legate being a wolf.

Mänwe is possible as a suspect, and my likely vote toDay. It's not very likely that everyone will change their minds, and if no one retracts, it would be difficult to lynch any other suspects without another bandwagon.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nessa

Mänwe is possible as a suspect, and my likely vote toDay. It's not very likely that everyone will change their minds, and if no one retracts, it would be difficult to lynch any other suspects without another bandwagon.

Erm, what? It's difficult to lynch anyone without a bandwagon, I'd say.

[Nessa Telrunya]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Erm, what? It's difficult to lynch anyone without a bandwagon, I'd say.

What I meant was if the votes are too spread out, there's no way to lynch anyone else.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by skip spence

This point I don't quite understand. Could you explain?

I was thinking while writing, sorry if the phrasing is unclear - I was comparing Boro's cobbler show to mine that I dropped after one day. He too should have known it wasn't worth the effort because he didn't have the information he needed in order to make the wolves believe him. But he continued it for four days, being totally useless.

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

What I meant was if the votes are too spread out, there's no way to lynch anyone else.

If the votes are too spread out, there's no way to lynch a wolf you mean. If an innocent votes for an innocent, or a couple of innocents vote for different wolves, the wolves can easily either hold their votes or retract - and win.

[skip spence]

First thing I noticed is this odd post by Boro (to Mac)

Originally Posted by Boro

Obviously you want the lynched-distraction to be a wolf. And are you seriously suggesting we just let Nessa walk away now? Time to get yourself new glasses because the wolves are standing right in front of you, but you're not seeing them. The wolves are just taunting and bluffing us at this point, but you're too focused on me. Now I know I haven't been playing up to my standards, but you'll only have yourself to blame when this is over.

I know I haven't been much use in forming suspicions, but I've tried what I can, by keeping up on reading everything and by not throwing away votes. I've been wrong in voting so far too, but I can't believe you're seriously saying we just let Nessa go.

Now what makes it extra curious is that Mac hadn't even mentioned Boro that Day (although he accused and voted him the Day before. Mac did say this however:

Originally Posted by Mac

Can we all please re-think your suspicions now?

There's something very forced about Boro's "attack" on Mac. I'm beginning to entertain the idea that Boro and Mac might be fellows doing some neat wolf-on-wolfing in preparation for a rainy day.

Disclaimer: I've not taken Day 1-3 into account; is there anything I have forgotten about that speaks for or against this notion?

It is Agan who calls Boro out:

I think Boro is the cobbler (or a wolf posing as one, but it seems unlikelier). He is being useless and he knows it. I've been disinclined to go after him thus far because I thought he might be a gifted, but we're now four days into the game and I find it impossible he'd be so blatantly unhelpful if innocent.

Then Mac posts his long analysis (which was what made me suspicious of him). Here he casts guilt over everyone who had any part in trying to lynch Nessa or Inzil, though some more than others (Calin looked worst, closely followed by me; the Seer Shasta makes the top-three). I started to suspect him mostly because he seemed to take for granted that Nessa is innocent (how could he know that?) and because he made the whole thing seem like an objective, almost scientific, analysis, when it was in fact extremely subjective and built entirely on his personal assumptions or, as I feared, calculations.

Rikae also noticed the opposed views:

Originally Posted by Rikae

Mac and Boro clearly both have agendas, and one of them is the wolves' agenda. Let's toss a coin and lynch one.

Well, not toss a coin, but Boro is treating Nessa as a known wolf, and Mac is treating her as a known innocent.

What was this btw, Rikae?

I voted Boro because I thought he might be a seer-dreamed wolf.

Me and Mac are exchanging some blows. Finally it sort of peters out with this...

Originally Posted by skip

But you did consistently award negative points (ie a suspicion) for anyone who favoured either Nessa or Inzil.

Originally Posted by Mac

That's what you do if you don't have a bias. You should try it sometime.

I didn't reply to Mac then (too hectic, not enough time) but I will now. This bias of yours is what made me raise my eyebrows in the first place. Inzil is a known innocent. Nessa is not (not by me anyway).

Mac, you still haven't spelled out your case on me by the way?

Reading back I was also reminded of Rikae's song. Loved it!

[skip spence]

Yeah, I'll be away toMorrow (Thursday/Friday) and it's doubtful if I can make an appearance then I'm afraid, though I'll promise to try best as I can. If nothing out of the ordinary happens I fully intend to vote Boro just so you know.

Originally Posted by Agan

I was comparing Boro's cobbler show to mine that I dropped after one day. He too should have known it wasn't worth the effort because he didn't have the information he needed in order to make the wolves believe him. But he continued it for four days, being totally useless.

Maybe I was unclear as well. What I don't understand was this: what information could the real cobbler, as opposed to a fake cobbler, obtain to help him convince the wolves he was the cobbler and how would he do that?

Now for packing. Should at least check the thread out before DL but will probably not be that productive.

Edit: x'ed with 2 Cailin

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Cailín

Oh and Manwe, if you are so innocent (and after toDay I doubt you are), please share some of your thoughts on the rest of the players. In other words: leave some trails.

Well at least his death will be more convenient for the wolves than any other wolf's (with the exception of Nessa if she's one) because the only person he talked about was ed...

Originally Posted by skip spence

what information could the real cobbler, as opposed to a fake cobbler, obtain to help him convince the wolves he was the cobbler and how would he do that?

Convenient references to the people he had suggested to the wolves the previous night: "I wonder why Lommy was killed when there are people who were considered innocent more widely, such as Shasta..." (Oh speaking of him, I had a dream during day 2 that Boro's first post on that day was something like "I don't think the cobbler sent his own name to the wolves, suggesting Shasta would have made more sense!" I almost posted it on the thread but thought it would've been inconsiderate towards the innocents who already thought I was the cobbler.) or simply "I think ed should die". The wolves would have been able to draw the connection.
(See I'm only ever good at this game when I get to be a baddie.)

It's of course possible Pitch's first suggestion was Nessa and that's why he went after her so strongly the following day.

[wilwarin538]

Finally, I have a break to curl up on my couch with tea and just relax! I should be able to pop on here and there until DL.

I'll do this now, since things likely won't change:

++Manwe

Though I do agree that it seems very likely Shasta dreamt of a Manwe-wolf, there is this tiny part of me that is remembering the last (and only other) time Shasta was a Seer, where after he died we were convinced he had dreamt a wolf, but we were wrong. I do think this time is different though, because he's approached it in a different way then he did last time (with the red-green thing, it's far clearer, last time it was a vague suspicion), and I don't think he would do that same thing twice, but I'm still slightly paranoid.

I will come back on in a bit and give my opinion on everyone else.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Convenient references to the people he had suggested to the wolves the previous night: "I wonder why Lommy was killed when there are people who were considered innocent more widely, such as Shasta..." (Oh speaking of him, I had a dream during day 2 that Boro's first post on that day was something like "I don't think the cobbler sent his own name to the wolves, suggesting Shasta would have made more sense!" I almost posted it on the thread but thought it would've been inconsiderate towards the innocents who already thought I was the cobbler.) or simply "I think ed should die". The wolves would have been able to draw the connection.
(See I'm only ever good at this game when I get to be a baddie.)

Sounds overly complicated to me but I'm taking notes for future reference.

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Well, here goes.