WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nessa

Mänwe is possible as a suspect, and my likely vote toDay. It's not very likely that everyone will change their minds, and if no one retracts, it would be difficult to lynch any other suspects without another bandwagon.

Erm, what? It's difficult to lynch anyone without a bandwagon, I'd say.

[Nessa Telrunya]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Erm, what? It's difficult to lynch anyone without a bandwagon, I'd say.

What I meant was if the votes are too spread out, there's no way to lynch anyone else.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by skip spence

This point I don't quite understand. Could you explain?

I was thinking while writing, sorry if the phrasing is unclear - I was comparing Boro's cobbler show to mine that I dropped after one day. He too should have known it wasn't worth the effort because he didn't have the information he needed in order to make the wolves believe him. But he continued it for four days, being totally useless.

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

What I meant was if the votes are too spread out, there's no way to lynch anyone else.

If the votes are too spread out, there's no way to lynch a wolf you mean. If an innocent votes for an innocent, or a couple of innocents vote for different wolves, the wolves can easily either hold their votes or retract - and win.

[skip spence]

First thing I noticed is this odd post by Boro (to Mac)

Originally Posted by Boro

Obviously you want the lynched-distraction to be a wolf. And are you seriously suggesting we just let Nessa walk away now? Time to get yourself new glasses because the wolves are standing right in front of you, but you're not seeing them. The wolves are just taunting and bluffing us at this point, but you're too focused on me. Now I know I haven't been playing up to my standards, but you'll only have yourself to blame when this is over.

I know I haven't been much use in forming suspicions, but I've tried what I can, by keeping up on reading everything and by not throwing away votes. I've been wrong in voting so far too, but I can't believe you're seriously saying we just let Nessa go.

Now what makes it extra curious is that Mac hadn't even mentioned Boro that Day (although he accused and voted him the Day before. Mac did say this however:

Originally Posted by Mac

Can we all please re-think your suspicions now?

There's something very forced about Boro's "attack" on Mac. I'm beginning to entertain the idea that Boro and Mac might be fellows doing some neat wolf-on-wolfing in preparation for a rainy day.

Disclaimer: I've not taken Day 1-3 into account; is there anything I have forgotten about that speaks for or against this notion?

It is Agan who calls Boro out:

I think Boro is the cobbler (or a wolf posing as one, but it seems unlikelier). He is being useless and he knows it. I've been disinclined to go after him thus far because I thought he might be a gifted, but we're now four days into the game and I find it impossible he'd be so blatantly unhelpful if innocent.

Then Mac posts his long analysis (which was what made me suspicious of him). Here he casts guilt over everyone who had any part in trying to lynch Nessa or Inzil, though some more than others (Calin looked worst, closely followed by me; the Seer Shasta makes the top-three). I started to suspect him mostly because he seemed to take for granted that Nessa is innocent (how could he know that?) and because he made the whole thing seem like an objective, almost scientific, analysis, when it was in fact extremely subjective and built entirely on his personal assumptions or, as I feared, calculations.

Rikae also noticed the opposed views:

Originally Posted by Rikae

Mac and Boro clearly both have agendas, and one of them is the wolves' agenda. Let's toss a coin and lynch one.

Well, not toss a coin, but Boro is treating Nessa as a known wolf, and Mac is treating her as a known innocent.

What was this btw, Rikae?

I voted Boro because I thought he might be a seer-dreamed wolf.

Me and Mac are exchanging some blows. Finally it sort of peters out with this...

Originally Posted by skip

But you did consistently award negative points (ie a suspicion) for anyone who favoured either Nessa or Inzil.

Originally Posted by Mac

That's what you do if you don't have a bias. You should try it sometime.

I didn't reply to Mac then (too hectic, not enough time) but I will now. This bias of yours is what made me raise my eyebrows in the first place. Inzil is a known innocent. Nessa is not (not by me anyway).

Mac, you still haven't spelled out your case on me by the way?

Reading back I was also reminded of Rikae's song. Loved it!

[skip spence]

Yeah, I'll be away toMorrow (Thursday/Friday) and it's doubtful if I can make an appearance then I'm afraid, though I'll promise to try best as I can. If nothing out of the ordinary happens I fully intend to vote Boro just so you know.

Originally Posted by Agan

I was comparing Boro's cobbler show to mine that I dropped after one day. He too should have known it wasn't worth the effort because he didn't have the information he needed in order to make the wolves believe him. But he continued it for four days, being totally useless.

Maybe I was unclear as well. What I don't understand was this: what information could the real cobbler, as opposed to a fake cobbler, obtain to help him convince the wolves he was the cobbler and how would he do that?

Now for packing. Should at least check the thread out before DL but will probably not be that productive.

Edit: x'ed with 2 Cailin

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Cailín

Oh and Manwe, if you are so innocent (and after toDay I doubt you are), please share some of your thoughts on the rest of the players. In other words: leave some trails.

Well at least his death will be more convenient for the wolves than any other wolf's (with the exception of Nessa if she's one) because the only person he talked about was ed...

Originally Posted by skip spence

what information could the real cobbler, as opposed to a fake cobbler, obtain to help him convince the wolves he was the cobbler and how would he do that?

Convenient references to the people he had suggested to the wolves the previous night: "I wonder why Lommy was killed when there are people who were considered innocent more widely, such as Shasta..." (Oh speaking of him, I had a dream during day 2 that Boro's first post on that day was something like "I don't think the cobbler sent his own name to the wolves, suggesting Shasta would have made more sense!" I almost posted it on the thread but thought it would've been inconsiderate towards the innocents who already thought I was the cobbler.) or simply "I think ed should die". The wolves would have been able to draw the connection.
(See I'm only ever good at this game when I get to be a baddie.)

It's of course possible Pitch's first suggestion was Nessa and that's why he went after her so strongly the following day.

[wilwarin538]

Finally, I have a break to curl up on my couch with tea and just relax! I should be able to pop on here and there until DL.

I'll do this now, since things likely won't change:

++Manwe

Though I do agree that it seems very likely Shasta dreamt of a Manwe-wolf, there is this tiny part of me that is remembering the last (and only other) time Shasta was a Seer, where after he died we were convinced he had dreamt a wolf, but we were wrong. I do think this time is different though, because he's approached it in a different way then he did last time (with the red-green thing, it's far clearer, last time it was a vague suspicion), and I don't think he would do that same thing twice, but I'm still slightly paranoid.

I will come back on in a bit and give my opinion on everyone else.

[Nessa Telrunya]

Well, here goes. If nothing else, we all need to vote together.

++Manwe

[Rikae]

I've been relying too heavily on what others reported about Shasta, and I feel the need to look for myself.
Ok, so... Shasta's statements about everyone, by Day.

Day One:

"Rikae is being... less talkative and more mysterious than usual, but then it's Rikae, so I don't know how much of that is readable."

"We have Pitch, who pinged my personal radar from the moment he said "havens forfend we do something like the Shasta lynch again!", but that's a Lottie reason so I'm going to need more to go on.
And besides that, he's suspected by an awful lot of people so far, considering. From personal experience as a wolf I know that wolves don't need to do much to push a Day 1 bandwagon right into an innocent, but it's something to look at."

"Mac and Kitanna both look good to me so far, as does Agan (as far as I can tell they've been the most logical and down to earth so far)."

"No read on Sally, which frankly bothers me a bit."

"I'm still liking Mac, but I think he might be making altogether too big a deal about Agan's post. It makes sense to me (but that might just be because I was just a wolf with her and know how she thinks )."

"On the other hand, Legate I think I'm good with because of his last post. There were several things about Lottie I wasn't really liking, but was hard-pressed to actually put those things into words. Legate managed quite nicely."

When does Lottie "not really have suspicions"? Lottie always suspects someone. It bothers me that she apparently doesn't right now.

"As of right now I'll probably be voting for Lottie"

(votes for Lottie without comment)

I see no dream-hints here at all. Thus we can assume his first dream was innocent, but that's all
this shows. Perhaps he dreamt of Kitanna? If he dreamt of an ordo, I would expect something more clear than this, unless he deemed clarity too dangerous to be worth the trouble at this early point. Going by his later list (Agan, Legate & me) either Agan or I could have been
the dream here.

Day Two

"I don't like this. Legate goes out of his way to say how suspicious Inzil's first post makes him, and finishes with "I suspect him but I don't really"."

"I'm not sure how Wilwa's defense of her vote strikes me - the tone seems innocent enough, but I can't help but wonder if Wilwa is deflecting attention from the Sally-wagon for some reason."

"Legate's #174... something strikes me as 'off' there. I'm not sure what, exactly, but it's the part about "well this is why I suspected Lottie yesterday, but I don't suspect her anymore" when he doesn't go on to explain exactly why, just referencing 'her later posts'."

"I've never played a game with Cailin by herself, I don't think, but as of #178 I adore her!"

"Rikae raises a good point here, I think."

"Re: Pitch's #183 - Why would a Nessa Wolfrunya be hinting at a Seer-Rikae in the first place? I don't understand it."

"I don't think Mac's been passive at all, actually - in my opinion he's been one of the louder voices."

"Re: Kitanna's #195 - oy gevalt."

"I'm not sure I agree with you. That Sallywagon sprang up awfully late in the day, to be purely-innocent driven."

"Eomer is rather emphatic and callous normally - I think this is probably just a playstyle reference"

"After Mac's post calling him out for defending PItch yesterday, all this looks like to me is damage-control distancing."

(Of Boro)

"First you're "paranoid" about Inzil, but then you won't "put any weight to it", but now you're "starting to suspect" him, but wait, no, you're just "merely wary"?"

(To Legate)

(Couple comments about Zil being suspicious).

"Having to 'make oneself look innocent' implies that one is not in fact innocent - otherwise why make yourself look like something that you already are? Does this mean you suspect Nessa, Cailin?"

"Regarding Skip and his hunter claim - I don't buy it. I think he was just looking for an epic 1000th post."

"I personally think the fair thing to do would be to redistribute Kitanna's role."

"What I was saying was 'the Sallywagon sprang up very late in the day - it wouldn't surprise me if there was a wolf in the running at the time'. I didn't say 'every person in the running before Sally is a wolf'."

(To Mac)


List

Feels good about Eomer, Agan, Cailin, me, Mac, Kitanna and Lommy. Of these, his statements on Eomer and I are similar and these and the one on Agan (and Kitanna, of course) are the strongest statements. Cailin & Lommy are "no warning signs" and Mac "I hope I'm not giving him a pass...".

His comments on ???'s Skip and Manwe suggest he might dream them.

Feels slightly bad about Boro, Pitch, Nessa, Wilwa. Comment about Pitch looks like future dream possibility, too.

Feels moderately bad about Lottie & Inzil.

"No-nonsense bad" about Legate.

"I will say I don't like the idea of lynching Kitanna as per my idea earlier. I might not be opposed to lynching, say, Greenie, whom I can never read, if a submarine is what we want. Plus I know how dangerous Mufasa can be ."

"Hum. I don't like Lottie's vote. At all."

(votes Lottie)

"And in any case there doesn't seem to be as much support for a Legate lynch as I'd hoped for, so."

Day 3:

"Legate, after rereading, is not as suspicious as I thought he was. (Sorry!)

"

"Honestly after three days of this crap, I think its high time we lynch one of the two inherently confusing people. I will probably vote for Inzil/Nessa."

"Elaboration on Legate (now that I'm at a computer) - Basically, (duh) Legate is known for 180-ing, and in hindsight that was my main reason to suspect him."

"Elaboration on Inzil/Nessa - honestly, at this point, the pattern's just going to repeat itself again. If one of them don't go today, they're going to be all the discussion will be about tomorrow - which does make me wonder if clever wolves aren't leaving them alive for precisely that reason, but still."

"Hum. Inzil going after Nessa at this late stage makes me uneasy, almost as if he's preparing a vote for her in advance.

My mind's made up."

(votes Inzil)

"Also, Inzil now jumping on Boro? Really?"

Clearly does point to a Legate-innocent dream.

Day 4:

List

Manwe tops his list to "look at today". Lots of people, however, are on that list... actually, everyone except Nessa, me, Legate and Agan is either "under the radar", "pinging my radar", and/or needs to be "looked at today". We four are the only ones he gives a clear opinion on. He also flipflops from his stance of the day before on Nessa without much reason.

List

As much discussed already, me, Agan and Legate in the "green" list. Green-yellow has Nessa at the top. Too ambiguous if he dreamt her, or does he just want to avoid making his change of opinion to obvious? Wilwa and Cailin here too, Skip, Ed & Mac yellow, Boro,
Greenie, Pitch & Manwe yellow-orange. Doesn't seem like a good idea for a seer to put a dreamed wolf in such a big group. As mentioned, no red.

Manwe-analysis

I don't agree with those who say this analysis looks like it's designed to back up his conclusion, but this:

"I think Manwe is the first person to enter my 'Red' category."

does look meaningful. It would make sense as a way to slightly obscure/justify his dream, but how, then, to explain his change of opinion on
Nessa? Not because of Manwe being a wolf, certainly, as he voted for Ed - possibly just to prepare for a shift to going after Manwe.

Analysis of Cailin

"Also, re: Agan - if you're 'green' it means I don't plan to vote you - and I wouldn't plan to vote the cobbler in any case."

Regarding his Agan/cobbler comments: she was generally considered cobblerish, and calling her innocentish would have made both her and Shasta
more conspicuous. I still think she's a dreamed innocent.

"I really want to vote for Manwe. I could vote Boro or Skip, I suppose. Probably not Legate, though."

By itself, doesn't support the Mänwe dream - he did go after Legate pretty intensely. The best cases for a Mänwe-wolf I can see are the "red category" line and Mänwe's own behavior toDay, which is wolfish enough without any seer hints involved.

Defends his suspicions to Mänwe

"I don't believe I mentioned it at all, actually, but nice job at subtle suspicion-hopping."

(to Pitch)

"While I don't necessarily agree with lynching Nessa today, her one post so far today, in which she votes, doesn't make me very comfortable at all."

Ok, didn't dream Nessa.

"To be honest, this attitude is starting to irritate me. If you happen to be suspected by Mac, you can't do anything without being suspicious, apparently. And apparently analyzing someone whom no one else has even bothered to consider is suspicious. Shoot me now."

I know what he means, though I'm not suspected by Mac (and why not?)

"Honestly, I think more people have said Skip looks like a better choice."

(To Legate, on Cailin)

"That's a shame. I don't feel like voting you at all. "

(to Legate)

"Also, Pitch - "more and more creepy"? You need to explain yourself, considering that the last time you mentioned me you were agreeing with me about Mac."

(votes Skip)

"To put him up there. I don't really like the Elronhubbard vote or the Legate vote and I don't agree with the Nessa vote today."

Yeah, likely dreams: Me/Agan, Agan/me, Legate, Mänwe. Not totally sure, but if Mänwe is innocent, he is also the wolfiest looking innocent under suspicion
I have ever seen, so:

++Mänwe

Even if Shasta didn't dream him, he's still a good bet for a wolf.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Convenient references to the people he had suggested to the wolves the previous night: "I wonder why Lommy was killed when there are people who were considered innocent more widely, such as Shasta..." (Oh speaking of him, I had a dream during day 2 that Boro's first post on that day was something like "I don't think the cobbler sent his own name to the wolves, suggesting Shasta would have made more sense!" I almost posted it on the thread but thought it would've been inconsiderate towards the innocents who already thought I was the cobbler.) or simply "I think ed should die". The wolves would have been able to draw the connection.
(See I'm only ever good at this game when I get to be a baddie.)

Sounds overly complicated to me but I'm taking notes for future reference.

---

Well, here goes.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by skip spence

Sounds overly complicated to me but I'm taking notes for future reference.

That's the part I love the most about wolvery.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Agan

What exactly do you think makes you more suspicious than say Boro?

Eh, just overreacted after a few people said they were suspicious of me and gave actually convincing reasons.


The thing about Boro I don't get: Wolf-Boro would have to expect that the real cobbler would get lynched (or accidentally killed) eventually. He'd have to be quite confident to think he can pull it off to fool us. Maybe he's just feeling experimental? Ordos are usually most prone to just trying something. Or maybe he knew it was a suicide mission in the long run, but thought he could avoid a seer dream this way and secure the two-kill advantage long enough?


His posts toDay make me feel a lot better about Skip.

(Of course, I'm only saying this so I don't have to actually come up with a justification for my over-confident knee-jerk suspicion. )