WW: LXXXVIII - Trouble in the Misty Mountains: Game Thread

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I am here, at least now.

The basic question we are standing in front of now is whether the WWs we have here would act more boldly or try to lay low and try to slide through the small game with minimal losses by leaving no trails and possibly stirring the water elsewhere. I would suspect the latter to be more likely in these circumstances, especially if it was the case that neither of them was a target of any stronger suspicion yesterDay. Since I think nobody was much (except for e.g. Pitch, who is dead), I would not put it past the WWs to have decided toNight's kill by saying "okay, let's make a no-trace kill and try to lay low for the rest of the Day" (with a possible addendum: "let's frame Zil while we are at that".

For this alone, I would strongly urge everyone to post, and I hereby announce that I will be more inclined toDay to vote those who do not participate much.

Of course, once again, this all depends on what kind of Wolves we have - it is possible that we have more bold ones and Zil is one of them and TEW just was a good target, therefore. But I am not really sure. It wouldn't have been a logical move from the WWs. Also, I am not sure if Zil was suspected by anybody else on any larger scale? So unless the WWs really thought TEW was the Seer... hmm, they could have (if Zil is a Wolf)... but the first possibility seems still more probable to me: the WWs don't have much of an idea about the Seer and they just wanted to make a no-trace kill.

Shall be back later with more thoughts, hope to see at least somebody around here.

[Galadriel55]

About yesterDay: so once in a lifetime the sun does rise in the West...

Pitch you are...you're not supposed to be innocent.... DANG IT! But you were so damn suspicious!

/frustration out

I am very surprised that they killed TEW. He got a couple votes yesterDay, and with a bit of persuation could have easily been lynched toDay. My conclusion: why should they waste a Nightkill on him when they could have easily got rid of him the next Day? Did they really think he was a gifted? Or, perhaps, just to stirr something up....

But the point remains: if they thought him to be Ranger or Hunter they could have lynched them. Therefore we're left with either Seer or diversion.

I've gone nowhere with this. It's all been said already. *facepalm*



I'm kinda curious about Nerwen's vote yesterDay, but I doubt that a Nerwolf would be so careless about an almost-throwaway with little explanation (I have to look again, I don't remember how the tally looked when she voted.)


PS - yes, when I voted in my explanation I was referring to Bom&Boro. Sorry for the confusion. I was saying why not Bom and why Pitch.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Incidentally, did I mention that I am becoming mightily suspicious of G55? There has been something late yesterDay after I have left in her behavior, and now this post above just sounds somewhat fake. "I am a Wolf and now I am going to start posting-messing around with questions as to what happened, expressing my puzzlement and casting the hot potato to the people: oh look, what's happening here, it does not make any sense, certainly not to me, especially not to me, precious, not at all - but refraining from actually saying something that would move the discussion, not really suspecting people, only stirring stuff a bit here and there." Something of that sort, it sounds to me.

[Kitanna]

I have precious little time today. I need to go to work in a little over an hour, so for now I'd like to focus on what happened after I voted on Day 1 and what's happened today (though clearly very little).

Originally Posted by G55

The second reason - the more weighty one - is that I was ticked off at Pitch in the last game. I just feel like voting him out of spite.

The first three votes for Pitch came in pretty quick succession. I believe she had no idea Zil and I voted for him, just like I had no idea Zil had voted for him when I put mine down. However, Pitch was generating a lot of conversation and suspicion around him. I don't like this reasoning of "just out of spite" because Pitch wasn't just a random player who hadn't had much activity.

Originally Posted by G55

Though I'm still gonna be watching him (who knows, he was also fenrissed because "he sounded queer"), I don't want to vote him based on his jokes and his reasons for his jokes and etc etc.

She seems to have gotten confused between Pitch and Bom here. Given how much Bom's jokes were discussed that's just unbelievable to me. And then there's the aforementioned reason she gave which as far as I can tell is directed at Pitch and not a Bom reason by mistake.

Moving on, I feel like Boro speaks a lot of sense in his next posts. He makes some observations regarding Kath's vote, the way Pitch and Bom both backed down after G55's "this is pointless" post, and the Pitch bandwagon (coincidence or nefarious activity?). He's certainly the most sensible person in my opinion, which means he can't be trusted.

Bom votes for Pitch and that hardly comes as a surprise. I was wrong about Pitch and now I wonder how wrong I've been about Bom. I easily could have voted for him as well, now I'm going to have to examine him closer than I had the chance to before.

Originally Posted by Boro

Winter is coming.

*slap*

Sally voted for TeW because

Something about Elf-Warrior's analysis looks off to me. It just seems forced, or like he's trying to say something without saying it. Definitely a mark in my suspicious column. Enough for a lynch vote? I'll have to consider it.

I would like more details on this suspicion.

Boro votes for Kath, no surprise there. Nerwen does too. Nerwen gives the reason that she doesn't a universal bandwagon and Kath's vote was suspect. But in the same breath she states Kath may just not know what to do, thus defending her. When Nerwen made her reasoning post Boro was already commenting that he might vote for Kath even if it was a throwaway. Then Nerwen agrees? I don't know about that. Stop one bandwagon and attempt to start another?

TODAY
I'm glad Nerwen did an analysis of E-W because I wouldn't have had time to.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

The exceptions, of course, are his statements about Legate (#34) ("...a slight, slight wolvish vibe..."), Pitchwife (#54)("However, that could be true and he could be a werewolf at the same time") and Zil (#54) ("...a possible wolf to wolf communication..."), plus voting him.

I feel the people listed here (Pitch excluded) deserve some looking over. Nerwen may have a point here.

Originally Posted by G55

PS - yes, when I voted in my explanation I was referring to Bom&Boro. Sorry for the confusion. I was saying why not Bom and why Pitch.

Mmmm

So based on yesterday's votes I think Kath, G55, and Nerwen are looking the worst now.

I stated my reasons regarding Kath in my lengthy post yesterday. Her "let's get a cornered sally to fight" reasoning was just too suspicious for me.

G55 spent a long time talking about how pointless the debate over jokes were, then she turns around a votes for one of the main players. She confuses Bom and Pitch and then makes a "I'm sorry, it was a mistake" post this morning. I don't like that either. Her actual reason for voting for Pitch (out of spite) was no better. Him and Bom had both garnered a lot of attention. I would have been surprised if neither one of them was voted for and then she makes that comment? Not very nice at all, precious.

And Nerwen. Her vote for Kath wasn't a surprise because she had said earlier it might be a possibility. But I don't like the placement of her reasoning. She says she wants to stop a universal bandwagon and because Kath's vote is suspect after Boro says he's probably voting for Kath. As I said earlier, one bandwagon for another? I don't think Kath was ever really in danger of being lynched yesterday, but Nerwen's reasoning are too convenient for my liking.

X-Post with Legate

[Kitanna]

I'm going to work and I'll be back in about 11 hours. When I do return I won't have more than an hour to comment, so my vote will be early tonight.

[A Little Green]

I'm here! First of all, sorry about yesterDay. I think this was the first time I ever purposefully abstained from voting; I just felt that it would have been unfair to everybody (and especially the one I voted) because I couldn't think even half straight. I hope to fix some of that toDay! I'm still busy though, but at least not about to faint.

Originally Posted by Sally

My sweet prince, I've simply missed you. Don't you trust me?

I remember the Days when we were happy and together, and the wolves couldn't threaten us. They were good Days, and I wish we could return to them. That's all.

And yes, don't vote me. Innocent!Sally is innocent, and that would be a bad move.

I should know well enough by now not to suspect Sally based on early Day 1 joking, but I don't like this; I think I said something along the same lines yesterDay - the underlining of her own innocence without any real cause makes me uneasy. On the other hand, her reaction to Kath's vote looked remarkably calm for an evil Sally. So yeah, I'm unsure.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Thing is, on previous showing, Bom is a very easy target. (Hope you don't mind my saying that, Bom.) Pitch knows this well, even if you don't– which does make me wonder about him, yes it does. And then, his switching to G55, also a novice player with a bit of a history of attracting suspicion– hmmn.

I usually can't read Nerwen at all so I might be off with this one, but this post looks opportunistic. In pointing out Pitch's suspicious behaviour but leaving the end with an open hmmn, she urges others to suspect Pitch without really involving herself. And indeed, she washes her hands as soon as Pitch gets votes.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Hey! A Pitchwaggon! I mean, I know what I said about him myself, but... this is pretty sudden, isn't it?

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I might vote her, simply *because* I don't want a universal bandwaggon – and yeah, her vote was suspect, all right. The only thing I could say about it, really, is that this being *Kath*, she may honestly not realise what you're *supposed* to do on Day One. (Trouble is, looking at Kath tnds to bring Pitch back into it anyway.)

Also, I'm not overly fond of voting to avoid a bandwaggon - bandwaggons are dangerous, true, but if you suspect someone, you want them bandwaggoned since that's pretty much the only way to get them lynched.

Originally Posted by Gal

I'm kinda curious about Nerwen's vote yesterDay, but I doubt that a Nerwolf would be so careless about an almost-throwaway with little explanation (I have to look again, I don't remember how the tally looked when she voted.)

If no fellows were in danger, a wolf would not care too much about the outcome (unless one of the candidates was a seer-suspect or some such). All in all, I'm somewhat suspicious of Nerwen - but then again, her first toDay looked both genuine and sensible to me, especially regarding Zil who I have a vague bad feeling about anyway. I'd take a proper look at him if I had the time, but I'm afraid I don't.


EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen

[A Little Green]

A quick list, based more on feeling than fact since I don't have time to reread as much as I'd wish.

Legate - Feels fine this far.
Sally - Undecided about her. Like I said, she underlines her own innocence in a suspicious way, but reacted to Kath's vote in a relatively innocent way.
Inzil - Bad feeling. Couldn't pinpoint it right now, I'm sure I'd find a reason for the feeling if I reread his posts.
Kath - Good vibes.
Kitanna - Really sharp, not sure about her alignment though!
Bom - Undecided. Initial reaction was "suspicious!", after which I remembered I always think that whatever his role. So a questionmark for now.
Nerwen - Somewhat suspicious because, as stated before, she urged the Pitchwaggon on but backed off when it actually began.
G55 - Good and bad vibes at the same time! Another I'd love to reread.
Boro - Nothing alarming this far.
Azura - Still not around, right?
Laeko_Randalis - Couldn't say.


EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

If you *strongly* suspect someone, yes. As it was, I didn't, and that sudden leap on him rather alarmed me.

Ah, I think I see where you're coming from now. Then again, it looked like you still suspected him more than Kath, which made me wonder why vote her instead of him.

[A Little Green]

That said, I've got to dash. I'll be back later.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Of course, once again, this all depends on what kind of Wolves we have - it is possible that we have more bold ones and Zil is one of them and TEW just was a good target, therefore. But I am not really sure. It wouldn't have been a logical move from the WWs. Also, I am not sure if Zil was suspected by anybody else on any larger scale? So unless the WWs really thought TEW was the Seer... hmm, they could have (if Zil is a Wolf)... but the first possibility seems still more probable to me: the WWs don't have much of an idea about the Seer and they just wanted to make a no-trace kill.

My point remains, though: why TEW instead of someone else? There's quite a number of people in this village who would have been higher-up on *my* "to kill" list, just on principle. (I don't want to knock TEW, by the way– but you know what I mean.)

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

I am very surprised that they killed TEW. He got a couple votes yesterDay, and with a bit of persuation could have easily been lynched toDay. My conclusion: why should they waste a Nightkill on him when they could have easily got rid of him the next Day? Did they really think he was a gifted? Or, perhaps, just to stirr something up....

But the point remains: if they thought him to be Ranger or Hunter they could have lynched them. Therefore we're left with either Seer or diversion.

Not really– that kind of thing can backfire pretty badly. Gifteds do have a nasty habit of revealing on the way to the gallows, after all.

Originally Posted by Legate

Incidentally, did I mention that I am becoming mightily suspicious of G55? There has been something late yesterDay after I have left in her behavior, and now this post above just sounds somewhat fake. "I am a Wolf and now I am going to start posting-messing around with questions as to what happened, expressing my puzzlement and casting the hot potato to the people: oh look, what's happening here, it does not make any sense, certainly not to me, especially not to me, precious, not at all - but refraining from actually saying something that would move the discussion, not really suspecting people, only stirring stuff a bit here and there." Something of that sort, it sounds to me.

It could be. That bit I quoted above has something of that glimpse-of-the-Nightly-discussion feel.

Originally Posted by Kit

And Nerwen. Her vote for Kath wasn't a surprise because she had said earlier it might be a possibility. But I don't like the placement of her reasoning. She says she wants to stop a universal bandwagon and because Kath's vote is suspect after Boro says he's probably voting for Kath. As I said earlier, one bandwagon for another? I don't think Kath was ever really in danger of being lynched yesterday, but Nerwen's reasoning are too convenient for my liking.

I meant I didn't want there to be a single bandwaggon that just about everyone voted in– that leaves little or nothing to analyse the next Day.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I meant I didn't want there to be a single bandwaggon that just about everyone voted in– that leaves little or nothing to analyse the next Day.

I'm not crazy about this reasoning. Bandwagons like the one against Pitch can reveal a lot. He was suspicious to a number of people and everyone had a different reason. It's not like the bandwagon of possible modfires Sally suggested that leaves no traces. But more importantly I don't like that you brought up this plan after Boro. Seemed too opportunistic.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Kitanna - Really sharp, not sure about her alignment though!

I have clearly aligned with myself. Team Kit!

Originally Posted by Sally

Incidentally, we have at least two players in danger of modfire toDay. This does not bode well. We need everyone to participate and vote, or the wolves will win without a fight.

I have already disagreed with your plan, but if it wasn't a complete waste I would vote for them on the grounds of being inconsiderate. If you're not going to comment or vote at all wait until you can join a game where you can. /anger

Originally Posted by Sally

I'd probably try it if I didn't like where the lynch was headed (e.g. someone I trusted was alone on the block).

Someone you trusted like a fellow wolf, perhaps?

Originally Posted by Boro

Of the Pitch voters, Bom's reasons are the most suspicious. His vote for Pitch came after a post where he sort of backs off:

He sort of backs off, but doesn't, by leaving the door open to vote Pitch if nothing else happens.

I missed the post by Bom. I wish I had seen that before voting yesterday. I don't know if I'd have changed my vote, but it would have given me more to consider. Bom's pretty much disappeared today and that's a shame because I wasn't done suspecting him. But I won't sit here and regurgitate what I've already said about him.

Originally Posted by Kath

I want sally around. She's a good player. But she's not much help with the above level of posting. I hoped a vote-kick might push her into more posting.

I tend to go after Sally because she makes more posts than anyone, but only about 10% or her posts have substance. So I sympathize with Kath there. But even so there are better ways to scare up a Sally than a vote. But I guess when you're pressed for time you have to work with what you got. Still...

Originally Posted by G55

I am simply curious about how that could be a basis for suspicion. Kit?

Every slip of the tongue is scrutinized in WW, for better or worse. The more important suspicion for me is the fact you said you were voting for Pitch out of spite, but he'd garnered a lot of suspicion already. You cross posted so you thought you were the first to vote for him, but he had a lot of buzz and so I don't buy you "out of spite" reasoning.

Originally Posted by Laeko

Cripes, I hate being a newbie, though the "protection" is nice, I suppose.

I'm against protecting your lot. You're lucky you didn't really say anything yesterday.

I got no time today. If I live until Day 3 I will be around for actual comment. I only had some time to skim and I narrowed my choices to Nerwen, G55, and Bom. For now I'm putting Kath on a watch list because I still don't like her vote reasoning. But I like the others less.

++ Bom

He hasn't said anything today...that I noticed at least. But I reread his posts and his comment about Pitch being vicious got Pitch all worked up and I used that as a reason to vote Pitch yesterday. Upon rereading his posts I find that a pretty wolfish move. It made Pitch look bad when he reacted (at least in my eyes) and kept him prevalent in people's minds. He backed off Pitch, but still voted for him. Not good at all.