WW: LXXXVIII - Trouble in the Misty Mountains: Game Thread

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

In sum, figuring out who you don't want to lynch is good enough for Day 1, but eventually got to start getting serious suspects to send werewolves to the gibbets.

That wasn't my program, it was the summary of the post: looking at the list I just wrote and evaluating what I have learned. Looking at it, I realised I don't have any people screaming guilty at that point, but at least I knew who I did not want to vote, and then went on from there in my future thoughts up to the final decision several posts later.

I agree with Inzil yesterday, that if this was a "warning" to Elf-warrior, a vote is a pretty strong one. Even with it being Day 1. And honestly, Legate, I have no clue what you were warning TEW about. Was it, generally, just, if you have the time, shape up? Or care to explain what you meant again?

The warning was a "bonus". It was not the sole reason, of course, that would be silly - if you read what I was saying, you will see it - in fact, it was not a reason at all. What I said was: TEW is possibly the person about whom there is something I find unsettling, and that is the fact that he posts about random people and completely omits the "big" events. I don't have anything even as "good" about the others, so I am going to vote him. Even in case it does not lynch him, may it at least serve as a warning. Let this vote be a warning to you, TEW! Post something sensible, or I shall lynch you on basis of this! Something like that. It is the equivalent of the typical "lynch the quiet ones" thing. If you are innocent, you should post and not omit saying your opinions on important stuff. You are harming the village if you don't. If you are not innocent, then you fully deserved the vote.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I am not saying the WWs are not looking for Gifteds, I am sure they are, but they probably don't know anything very specific about them (otherwise, they'd already be dead).

And anyway, let me say once again, in my opinion, at this point this debate does not have much of a sense for the village. The knowledge (or, in fact, theory) that the WWs thought TEW 1% more Gifted than the rest of us does not really help the village in anything. If there was somebody shouting "I'm the Seer, I'm the Seer" all day and then next night the WWs won't attack him, now that would have been suspicious. But if we have only some vague notions, it is not of any help.

Well, actually, it is a help in my head. Whatever the chances are the wolves thought TEW was a gifted, it would have been based on something he said. It makes a pretty big difference over he was killed for no-trace. Because if they thought he was, then from the wolves perspective he was saying something that was probably true about one of them. Could be in his vote for Inzil, if Inzil's a wolf, or his slightly wolvish vibe he got from you. But I can't see either you or Inzil being bothered much, by vague and slight suspicions if you were wolves.

The hindsight that he was an ordo, doesn't change the fact that if the wolves thought there was a chance he was gifted, he said something to make them think it. And thus there is probably more truth that can be found in what he said about people, than what you seem to want to make it.

Having said that, I admit to be focusing too much on TEW so far today, and there is the voting that also needs to be looked at more.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

That wasn't my program, it was the summary of the post: looking at the list I just wrote and evaluating what I have learned. Looking at it, I realised I don't have any people screaming guilty at that point, but at least I knew who I did not want to vote, and then went on from there in my future thoughts up to the final decision several posts later.

That's essentially what I was trying to say. That you were being consistent in wanting to "lynch wisely," and that it is understandable for Day 1. In so far, as it's how I approach Day 1's too.

[satansaloser2005]

Incidentally, we have at least two players in danger of modfire toDay. This does not bode well. We need everyone to participate and vote, or the wolves will win without a fight.

That means you, new kids. You vote or you die. That is all.

*stern!Sally is stern*

I'm also proposing the radically stupid idea of, if the modfire candidates don't show up by Dusk, just killing one of them. It would be better to waste a lynch on an absent innocent than to have three die in one Day. I'm just putting this up for consideration; I'm hoping it won't be necessary.

[Kitanna]

*sneaking on for three minutes before her lunch ends*

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I'm also proposing the radically stupid idea of, if the modfire candidates don't show up by Dusk, just killing one of them. It would be better to waste a lynch on an absent innocent than to have three die in one Day. I'm just putting this up for consideration; I'm hoping it won't be necessary.

We run a lot of risk doing this. We may save ourselves too many innocent loses, but we also buy the wolves time as well. I'd rather not waste my vote on people who are in danger of modfire. I want to use my vote on someone I actually suspect. And if everyone says "well they're dead anyway" and votes like that we have no trail to follow on Day 3 where voting is concerned. It's easier to hide behind comments, but hiding behind votes is oh so much harder.

Had more to say, but I gotta run again. I just had to comment on this idea now though.

[satansaloser2005]

As Boro would say, fairy nuff. It's not a plan I'd want to put into action, but I'd probably try it if I didn't like where the lynch was headed (e.g. someone I trusted was alone on the block).

Besides, I see it benefiting us innocents more than the villains, at least from a numbers standpoint. From an evidence perspective, however, it's fairly useless. :/

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

As Boro would say, fairy nuff. It's not a plan I'd want to put into action, but I'd probably try it if I didn't like where the lynch was headed (e.g. someone I trusted was alone on the block).

Besides, I see it benefiting us innocents more than the villains, at least from a numbers standpoint. From an evidence perspective, however, it's fairly useless. :/

Greenie always gets annoyed if I bring this up with mod-fires. If it's just one person who may be modfired we vote to lynch. It extends the game by 1 phase. (Gives us another night, in which with the hunter/ranger still presumably alive would hopefully extend it more). But with 2 modfires, I don't think we gain the extra phase.

Worst case scenario, they're both innocent, and we lynch one of the mod-fires. That leaves 7 innocents, 3 wolves. And 2 days to get a wolf. And we essentially give up trying to lynch a wolf today.

Or, we lose the 2 mod-fires, they're both innocent, and we lynch another innocent. 6 innocents, 3 wolves. Still get 2 days to get a wolf. But we aren't giving up the lynch chance for a wolf.

Sorry, sally, with 2 mod-fires, there's no gain to be made by voting to lynch one of them. Better to use the chance today voting someone else and hope one of the 3 is a wolf.

Edit: crossed with Inzil

[satansaloser2005]

What do you mean, gain an extra phase? Modfires lose us phases (assuming they're innocent, that is).

I'm really fine either way, but you're being pretty cavalier with our numbers.

Speaking of Greenie, when is she expecting to return?

[Boromir88]

Yesterday's votes:

Kath ---> sally
Pitch ---> G55
Legate ---> TEW
Inzil ---> Pitch
Kitanna ---> Pitch
G55 ---> Pitch
Bom ---> Pitch (4)
Boro ---> Kath
TEW ---> Inzil
sally ---> TEW (2)
Nerwen ---> Kath (2)

Can't really glean much from the late votes. Out of all of them, I still think Kath's reasoning looks the most suspicious, but that's all I've got on her right now. Not going to bang on about it, but I hope she can get back today so I can hear an explanation on it.

Of the Pitch voters, Bom's reasons are the most suspicious. His vote for Pitch came after a post where he sort of backs off:

Originally Posted by Bom, #53

Well, while I disagree with the idea Pitchwife's explanation for his behavior so far, it is enough to get me off his back for now (though he's still a candidate for voting until/unless somebody else starts acting suspicious). I'd hate to vote G55 for what seems to me like a genuine peacekeeping effort, and nobody else is really standing out much to me.

He sort of backs off, but doesn't, by leaving the door open to vote Pitch if nothing else happens.

The 3 who cross-voted (Inzil, Kitanna, G55) look good enough all for different reasons. Inzil thinks Pitch jumped too quickly at Bom, then switched too quickly on G55.

Kitanna thinks Pitch tried to pull in an innocent-Bom, while pushing back a wolf-Bom. Bom looks like he tried doing the same thing in the post #53 quoted above.

G55 did a process of elimination and was left with either Pitch or Bom.

Originally Posted by Inzil

Bom's, by virtue of the timing, and the somewhat intense interactions between him and Pitch, might look the worst.

I don't think the timing matters, unless he was hoping to make sure there wouldn't be enough remaining votes to have a bandwagon against him? That is to say, just because you, Kit, and G55 all cross-voted, doesn't make the timing of your votes any better or worse than Bom's. 3-4 votes is really all it takes to lynch on Day 1.

Even if the 3 were cross-votes, all of you essentially put Pitch up to be lynched. Or at least insure that if he wasn't there would have to be another bandwagon from the later voters to save him. Bom's vote coming later did pretty much seal it, but the bandwagon as already there and to save Pitch would have meant consensus from me, Bom, TEW, sallyand Nerwen.

The only one I would have felt comfortable pushing harder for would have been Kath. But sally didn't seem bothered by Kath's vote and wasn't going to vote for her. And it was feeling like a throwaway even before Bom's vote.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Anyway, I think we should move on from "why was TEW killed", since I think we have revealed as much as we could, to "whom are we going to lynch".

I concur. The Pitch votes (and yes, that includes mine) should naturally be our focus, I think.

Why did I vote for him? I said so here and here.

Kitanna's and G55;s x/d with mine. Over an hour later, Bom came in with his, and sealed Pitch's fate.

G55 has said hers was "out of spite". Since it led to his lynch, that would seem an especially questionable reason.

Kit's was better reasoned.

Bom's, by virtue of the timing, and the somewhat intense interactions between him and Pitch, might look the worst.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

We run a lot of risk doing this. We may save ourselves too many innocent loses, but we also buy the wolves time as well. I'd rather not waste my vote on people who are in danger of modfire. I want to use my vote on someone I actually suspect. And if everyone says "well they're dead anyway" and votes like that we have no trail to follow on Day 3 where voting is concerned. It's easier to hide behind comments, but hiding behind votes is oh so much harder.

Sensible!Kit is sensible, at least on this score. Lynching a likely modfire is not something I could get behind.