WW: LXXXVIII - Trouble in the Misty Mountains: Game Thread

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

G55, if you're not just a wolf messing with our heads, you've got nothing to gloat about– you did this to yourself. And no, I have no idea what you're talking about.

I know I did this to myself. At first I kinda thought I was supposed to do it to myself, though through Night-kills. But then things got complicated, and this ended up happening a bit earlier than planned...

This would have been so much more fun if I was a wolf! Though it's fun enough as it is.

Edit: and yeah, if you can't find what I was talking about, wait for the narration, maybe it will point you to the right post... And you'll still get lembas... I'm in a good mood.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Sorry about this. I really shouldn't be this much trouble. I apologize. Thank you for not posting last twelve. In any case I'll have a narration up tomorrow, but for you...

Galadriel the Hunter was lynched. She takes Bom the Ordo with her. Enjoy Night 2.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

This was not a good cycle for the village... Sally the Seer was eaten during the night.

It is now Day.

[A Little Green]

Still nobody here? Ah well. I'll be going through Sally's posts, back with (hopefully) some ideas.

[A Little Green]

SALLY
(This is not a summary of all Sally's posts, but rather a focused analysis the purpose of which is to find out who she dreamed of.)

Boro, my prince, hold me.

My sweet prince, I've simply missed you. Don't you trust me?

Amid her loads of banter, the flirt with Boro is a recurring theme. I'm tempted to suggest that Boro is our first dreamed innocent. Mostly because I'm doubtful of whether a Seer would be so careless as to single someone out just randomly, knowing that her posts will be analysed with care once she's dead.

Won't vote:
Kath
Boro
Dun
Pitch
Greenie
Fresh Meat #1 and #2

In itself, this tells us little; more can (possibly) be read in comparison to a similar list from Day 2.

Something about Elf-Warrior's analysis looks off to me. It just seems forced, or like he's trying to say something without saying it. Definitely a mark in my suspicious column. Enough for a lynch vote? I'll have to consider it.

She ends up voting Elf-Warrior. Even if he wasn't known to be innocent, it would be pretty clear that Sally hadn't dreamed him yet. As he was pretty much her top suspect, though, it's very possible she dreamed him the next Night. That would also account for her expressed annoyance of him being Night-killed. Also, possibly, what led the wolves to her trail?

In the early phases of Day 2, she forcibly demands explanations for the EW kill and presents the idea of killing the ones in danger of modfire.

Based on both yesterDay's malarkey and reactions to my modfire plan toDay....

I will not vote for:
Kath
Kit
Greenie
Dun
Legate

There are a few notable differences to the previous Day's list. Firstly, Kit and Legate have made it there; Boro, however, has vanished from the list, making me doubt my original theory that he was Sally's first dream. The only ones that persist on the list are Kath and myself.

Concerning Gal's suspicion of Nerwen:

Nerwen: I was wary of the jump as well, but, well, I'll be frank. I rather suspect both of you.

She then votes Gal. Again, her suspicions do not seem to be based on Night dreams. If I had to hazard a guess as to who she dreamed of the Night she was killed, I'd say it was Nerwen. This will look potentially bad for her if the wolves thought like I do; then again, if they caught her Seerishness from other stuff, they would have gone for her whether Nerwen is a wolf or not.

[A Little Green]

Oh. I see I forgot to draw some definite conclusions. Right, so I'd say Sally dreamed
Night 1 - Inzil (forgot him in my last post, sorry!), Kath or myself since we are the ones wh persist on her "will not vote" -list; Boro would also be a possibility, but his disappearance from the "will not vote" -list somewhat downplays this theory.
and Night 2 - Elf-Warrior would be the logical conclusion since he was her top suspect, and she expressed frustration when he was Night-killed; Legate and Kit appeared on her "will not vote" -list, making them possibilities too, but I'm inclined to believe it was EW.

This wasn't very definite, though, was it?


EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

All right, then: Sally. I don't have time right now to put together a proper analysis, with quotes and everything, but I have been reading through her posts. I think she dreamed Boro (innocent)– she seemed very positive about him in general, and at #108 she actually said to him, "I trust your judgement". I know they tend to flirt a bit, but a Seer would probably avoid saying that about an unknown.

Unfortunately, I'd say there's a very good chance her other dream was The Elf-warrior– that would explain why she was so annoyed when he was killed. The other possibility would be Kath on Night One, explaining why Sally was so ready to dismiss Kath's vote on her.

I see Nerwen is thinking much along the same lines as I am; also, I think the point about Kath is a good one.

It's the classic "only myself and Nerwen around" -time of day!

[Nerwen]

Greenie, I think you are putting too much stock in this "will not vote" list. I doubt it's any kind of Seer-code, since there seems to be no way of narrowing it down to less than three people.

EDIT:X'd with Greenie.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

All right, then: Sally. I don't have time right now to put together a proper analysis, with quotes and everything, but I have been reading through her posts. I think she dreamed Boro (innocent)– she seemed very positive about him in general, and at #108 she actually said to him, "I trust your judgement". I know they tend to flirt a bit, but a Seer would probably avoid saying that about an unknown.

Disagreed, and see above why. Unless sally was super-hyper-covering her trail that she was dreaming of him by not putting him on her list next Day, which I don't believe she would, then Boro was most definitely NOT her dream.

Unfortunately, I'd say there's a very good chance her other dream was The Elf-warrior– that would explain why she was so annoyed when he was killed. The other possibility would be Kath on Night One, explaining why Sally was so ready to dismiss Kath's vote on her.

This makes sense, and good point about Kath too.

I really can't see what gave her away, unless it was one of the things I just mentioned, which aren't exactly obvious. Maybe the wolves are using my kill list now.

Don't say it twice or I will start pondering lynching you. I mean, I can see you being a Wolf and happily posting this statement. So watch it, because I am watching you. No more trust from me. I don't like it how you push that Boro was innocent, while there are rather good arguments contra. Any chance the WWs are you and Boro (and somebody)?

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Oh. I see I forgot to draw some definite conclusions. Right, so I'd say Sally dreamed
Night 1 - Inzil (forgot him in my last post, sorry!), Kath or myself since we are the ones wh persist on her "will not vote" -list; Boro would also be a possibility, but his disappearance from the "will not vote" -list somewhat downplays this theory.
and Night 2 - Elf-Warrior would be the logical conclusion since he was her top suspect, and she expressed frustration when he was Night-killed; Legate and Kit appeared on her "will not vote" -list, making them possibilities too, but I'm inclined to believe it was EW.

I see we arrived to the same conclusions. However, I suggest people also ponder my Night 1 - Pitch theory. I know this "re:" stuff is not anything big, but it might be.

And now I really have to go. I have player characters in D&D to kill today (well... not really, but...).

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

So Sally was

Day 1 - suspecting and voting EW, and posting a list of people she does not want to vote.

Day 2 - offering modfire-threatened people to be lynched. That would point at least to one thing: she most likely did NOT dream a Wolf that Night, or the previous, since then she'd have at least proposed it.

Given this, I propose her first dream was among those:

Kath
Boro
Dun
Pitch
Greenie
Fresh Meat #1 and #2

I don't know about her "sweetprincing" with Boro, but it does not say anything. As it has been pointed out, Boro is not on her "will not vote for" list on next Day.

Also, there is this on next Day:

Re: Pitch: I told thee so!

What "I told thee so"? I only know her mentioning Pitch on the list. Therefore, I would dare to propose that her initial dream was actually Pitch.

Day 2 list of those she won't vote for:

Kath
Kit
Greenie
Dun
Legate

Okay, so: the only recurring names are Kath, Dun and Greenie. However, if I am right and she dreamt of Pitch first, then unless she dreamt TEW on Night 2, she could have also dreamt of a "new" person: me or Kit. The question is, whom she would be likely to dream of. I mean: reasons? Why to choose either of us? Of all I would see most probable dream to be TEW, to be honest, based on logic: I don't know if me or Kit were as "interesting". Then again, who knows what logic sally used.

I must leave for now, so I will leave you to ponder the rest of the implications and questions I have raised (see above). Will be back later, but not sure how much later.

EDIT: x-ed since Greenie's sallylysis

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Legate

What "I told thee so"? I only know her mentioning Pitch on the list. Therefore, I would dare to propose that her initial dream was actually Pitch.

Possible, I think. Then again, would she not have tried to defend him or vote for a more possible lynch candidate to save him?

[Nerwen]

I'm pretty sure she didn't dream of Pitch, Legate, as she made no attempt at all to save him. "I told you so' surely refers to her own reaction to the "Pitchwaggon" (#61):

Originally Posted by Sally the Seer

Dudes, this is messed up.

I'll be home in about fifteen minutes. Try not to go crazier, okay?

That doesn't sound to me at all like a Seer dismayed at watching her known innocent dragged to the gallows– more like an onlooker going, "What the–?"

On that note, and looking again at the voting on Day One– I realise Sally was around at the time Boro and I starting talking about voting Kath, and only pointed out "this is hardly the first time Kath has done this", which is really a pretty lukewarm defence.

I suppose you could argue that Pitch's fate was already sealed, but still, there was an hour to go and some people yet to vote.

EDIT:X'd since Legate at #215.

[Nerwen]

Well, this is going wonderfully. I wonder if we can manage to avoid lynching the Ranger toDay, or will the strain prove too much?

All right, then: Sally. I don't have time right now to put together a proper analysis, with quotes and everything, but I have been reading through her posts. I think she dreamed Boro (innocent)– she seemed very positive about him in general, and at #108 she actually said to him, "I trust your judgement". I know they tend to flirt a bit, but a Seer would probably avoid saying that about an unknown.

Unfortunately, I'd say there's a very good chance her other dream was The Elf-warrior– that would explain why she was so annoyed when he was killed. The other possibility would be Kath on Night One, explaining why Sally was so ready to dismiss Kath's vote on her.

I really can't see what gave her away, unless it was one of the things I just mentioned, which aren't exactly obvious. Maybe the wolves are using my kill list now.

I'm afraid Sally didn't dream a wolf, or she wouldn't have been urging the lynch of the potential modfirees yesterDay. (Well, unless she dreamed one of them, but I don't think she said anything that would point to that.)

EDIT:X'd with Greenie.

[Kitanna]

Conclusions on Sally
1) She suspected and voted E-W based on his analysis post. I second whoever said she probably dreamt of him on Night 2. She did seem adamant about finding out why E-W over others on Nerwen's kill-list.
2) She kept returning to that idea. I'm not sure why.
3) Her modfire idea was ill conceived and even she backed down right away. This above all else tells me she probably only dreamt ordos and no wolves. If she had put Laeko or Azura forward as a lynch candidate I could believe she dreamt one a wolf.
4) In post 151 she tells Nerwen she suspects her more than G55 (at least I believe that's who she's referring to. But she still votes G55. I think Sally wanted to dream Nerwen at this point. If Sally meant that to be a hint, it was subtle and unless the wolves expected her to be the Seer and were looking for those clues, I can't say how much that means in the long run.

Originally Posted by Greenie

She then votes Gal. Again, her suspicions do not seem to be based on Night dreams. If I had to hazard a guess as to who she dreamed of the Night she was killed, I'd say it was Nerwen. This will look potentially bad for her if the wolves thought like I do; then again, if they caught her Seerishness from other stuff, they would have gone for her whether Nerwen is a wolf or not.

Obviously I'm not alone here.
5) I think Sally may have dreamt of Kath. Just based on her reaction to Kath's vote for her on Day 1. I've seen Sally get worked up over votes like that, but she was calm and didn't accuse Kath of her own Lupine activity.