WW: LXXXVIII - Trouble in the Misty Mountains: Game Thread

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

All right, then: Sally. I don't have time right now to put together a proper analysis, with quotes and everything, but I have been reading through her posts. I think she dreamed Boro (innocent)– she seemed very positive about him in general, and at #108 she actually said to him, "I trust your judgement". I know they tend to flirt a bit, but a Seer would probably avoid saying that about an unknown.

Disagreed, and see above why. Unless sally was super-hyper-covering her trail that she was dreaming of him by not putting him on her list next Day, which I don't believe she would, then Boro was most definitely NOT her dream.

Unfortunately, I'd say there's a very good chance her other dream was The Elf-warrior– that would explain why she was so annoyed when he was killed. The other possibility would be Kath on Night One, explaining why Sally was so ready to dismiss Kath's vote on her.

This makes sense, and good point about Kath too.

I really can't see what gave her away, unless it was one of the things I just mentioned, which aren't exactly obvious. Maybe the wolves are using my kill list now.

Don't say it twice or I will start pondering lynching you. I mean, I can see you being a Wolf and happily posting this statement. So watch it, because I am watching you. No more trust from me. I don't like it how you push that Boro was innocent, while there are rather good arguments contra. Any chance the WWs are you and Boro (and somebody)?

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Oh. I see I forgot to draw some definite conclusions. Right, so I'd say Sally dreamed
Night 1 - Inzil (forgot him in my last post, sorry!), Kath or myself since we are the ones wh persist on her "will not vote" -list; Boro would also be a possibility, but his disappearance from the "will not vote" -list somewhat downplays this theory.
and Night 2 - Elf-Warrior would be the logical conclusion since he was her top suspect, and she expressed frustration when he was Night-killed; Legate and Kit appeared on her "will not vote" -list, making them possibilities too, but I'm inclined to believe it was EW.

I see we arrived to the same conclusions. However, I suggest people also ponder my Night 1 - Pitch theory. I know this "re:" stuff is not anything big, but it might be.

And now I really have to go. I have player characters in D&D to kill today (well... not really, but...).

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Don't say it twice or I will start pondering lynching you. I mean, I can see you being a Wolf and happily posting this statement. So watch it, because I am watching you. No more trust from me. I don't like it how you push that Boro was innocent, while there are rather good arguments contra. Any chance the WWs are you and Boro (and somebody)?

I would hardly call that "pushing."

sally would be one to have some code, but whether it's too confusing for us to follow, it probably won't be worth the effort to try to figure it out. If it matters to anyone I'll try giving a crack at it. But I would prefer not to be lynched, seeing as we need wolves.

Otherwise, I'm going to be spending my time on who's a wolf to lynch and not unravelling sally's hidden code.

Usually we find the most fantastic ways to mess these games up, but I'm not too happy with the 2 known gifteds so far. These misfortunes aren't on our hands, you could have you know, been a bit more helpful?

[Boromir88]

This is probably going to get me lynched, but whatever. The gifteds have either gone to be a martyr or left a confusing trail of dreams to follow. But, I think this can help and if it makes me more suspicious so be it.

I agree with Nerwen that the "do not vote lists" of sally's are a waste of time. Maybe a dreamed innocent or two are in there, but it's impossible to narrow the possible dreams down based soley on the "do not vote" lists.

sally might be crazy and confusing, but she's not silly enough to leave no hints and have us be totally lost. I know Greenie and Nerwen brought me up as a possible sally dream, but I really don't think so. Normally I make sense as an early dream, and sally and I do have a history. But that lover reference, Princess Bride business is pretty normal. I took it as she was trying to see if she could trust me, and her "I trust your judgement" on day 2, still comes off as she thought me innocent, but hadn't used a dream on me.

The suggestion that she dreamed of Pitch or TEW, I think is pretty weak, for reasons already stated on Pitch. After TEW was killed she said

Re: Elf-Warrior: What the heck, wolves? I really wanted to lynch him!

Even if she was suspicious of TEW on Day 1, why would she say, after he's been killed by the wolves "I really wanted to lynch him" if she dreamed of TEW night 2?

So, she had 2 dreams, and both are likely then still alive. I'm inclined to agree that she hadn't dreamed a wolf yet, just based on her votes. First for TEW (killed by wolves) and 2nd for G55 (hunter). Granted, if she did dream a wolf, she wouldn't go parading the information around in plain sight, but all of her hints are weighed towards people looking innocent.

If this gets both of you in trouble, because you know as presumed village innocent you'll suddenly become wolf meat, then I apologize to you two. But then again, there's still the Ranger who might be able to head off the wolves with this information.

I think her dreams were Kath and Kit. Sally was completely unphased by Kath's vote, and then Kath's continued suspicions the following day. We should know sally well enough to know, when she's innocent she's usually proclaiming it often and always brings up how if she's lynched the village has a history of losing. Kath's vote and suspicions she just seemed unbothered by completely (although I think this has already been said).

Now, to me this looks like an obvious hint right in front of us. Not the normal lover-behavior she displays towards me, but a rather clear and straight forward hint. Not obvious enough if we didn't know she was the seer that probably would have been spotted, but in hindisght, looks clear enough to me:

Originally Posted by sally

It's nice to know at least one person who's on my side.

"know someone is on my side," it's not ambigious language like "trust" or a non-vote list of 5-6 people. (But it would explain why Kit was added onto the non-vote list later).

That's all on sally I'm doing for the day. Make of it what you will. I think her dreams were an innocent Kit and Kath.

Edit: crossed with Inzil.

[A Little Green]

Random observation: both Boro and Kath seem razor-sharp this game. I mean, even more so than usual. It's kind of scary.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Random observation: both Boro and Kath seem razor-sharp this game. I mean, even more so than usual. It's kind of scary.

I'll buy the "more so than usual" feeling, because not to sound ego-tistical, but I think I'm right about sally's dreams. But this is exactly why I debated on whether I wanted to go through her posts to even find the dreams. Come on Greenie, you know I can find the seer hints with the best of them. If I don't do it, I'm a wolf because I normally do do it. If I do it, then I'm too sharp and I must have known already sally was the seer.

It's easy to pick up the trail in hindsight if you read it carefully. And the seer has no intentions at all to be confusing or misleading, it's just a process of following her votes and what sally posted. She wouldn't have dreamed of people she voted for (and it's pretty clear from her first post on Day 2 she didn't dream of TEW). She wouldn't put known dreamed wolves in her non-vote list, but would include dreamed innocents. I can assume well enough she didn't dream of me, because her trust was based upon my posts and judgement. She made no attempt to save Pitch.

Limit the options left and open your eyes to comments she made towards specific people and it's clear as day. Not to get all uptight, but this sort of stuff irks me. I'm not razor-sharp, I'm not brilliant, I'm following what's right in front of you.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

"know someone is on my side," it's not ambigious language like "trust" or a non-vote list of 5-6 people. (But it would explain why Kit was added onto the non-vote list later).

That's all on sally I'm doing for the day. Make of it what you will. I think her dreams were an innocent Kit and Kath.

I suppose that's a possibility for Sally's dreams, but I think it's a reach where Kit is concerned. That "on my side" comment just looks to me like an throwaway remark.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I'll buy the "more so than usual" feeling, because not to sound ego-tistical, but I think I'm right about sally's dreams. But this is exactly why I debated on whether I wanted to go through her posts to even find the dreams. Come on Greenie, you know I can find the seer hints with the best of them. If I don't do it, I'm a wolf because I normally do do it. If I do it, then I'm too sharp and I must have known already sally was the seer.

It's easy to pick up the trail in hindsight if you read it carefully. And the seer has no intentions at all to be confusing or misleading, it's just a process of following her votes and what sally posted. She wouldn't have dreamed of people she voted for (and it's pretty clear from her first post on Day 2 she didn't dream of TEW). She wouldn't put known dreamed wolves in her non-vote list, but would include dreamed innocents. I can assume well enough she didn't dream of me, because her trust was based upon my posts and judgement. She made no attempt to save Pitch.

Limit the options left and open your eyes to comments she made towards specific people and it's clear as day. Not to get all uptight, but this sort of stuff irks me. I'm not razor-sharp, I'm not brilliant, I'm following what's right in front of you.

Mmmn, well, I think Sally could have done with being a lot less ambiguous. I certainly hope you are right that she didn't dream TEW. (My thinking was that she made that comment about wanting to lynch him because at that point she didn't need to hint at his role, since he was dead.)

Regarding Kath: the argument in favour of her being the Night One dream is obvious. However, Sally didn't really react that much when there was talk of voting Kath on Day One, which is bugging me a bit. It may be simply that it never seemed that Kath was in real danger.

Although, I'd say Sally *herself* could have swung the lynch Kath's way, had she wanted to– which should be a final nail in the coffin of Legate's Pitch-theory.

Regarding which: look, I don't know what to make of Legate. On the one hand, he's been promoting a theory of events which would be most convenient for the evil side– i.e. that both Sally's dreams are already dead– and which even a quick look over the end of Day One should have discounted. On the other, he's certainly not acting anything like he normally does as a wolf. Thoughts?

[Kath]

Interjection of unhelpful real life: Just popping in for a moment. I'm in the midst of moving house and may not have reliable internet after the next 45 minutes. If I definitely can't get on I'll call my sister and ask her to let you all know. Hopefully all will be fine though!

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I can't fully concentrate right now, so this post will be just short in regards to what I have seen...

Re: Nerwen: Sorry for sounding perhaps a bit aggressive, it was more like a threat in the way that I am not trusting my own shadow anymore. As for proposing "ridiculous" Pitch-dreamt of - theory, I did not connect the sally's comment with his lynching. Yet I still believe he was a possible dream, and certainly at least as logical as your Boro theory, or in fact, more: I repeat, Boro was not at Sally's trust-list on the second day. If she dreamt of him, that'd be a really poor Seer-job, illogical thing to do anyway (no reason to switch your opinions on innocents even if you e.g. wanted to hide yourself).

Otherwise, I am becoming more and more suspicious of Boro: he is really acting incredibly "Agreeable" in his later posts. As innocent, he is usually far more inquisitive, and really now he just is sort of honey-tongued. I could consider him for my vote.

Will be back later.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate

Re: Nerwen: Sorry for sounding perhaps a bit aggressive, it was more like a threat in the way that I am not trusting my own shadow anymore.

But you understand that I put forward that theory *before* Greenie pointed out the anomaly of Boro's being left off the list the second Day?

Originally Posted by Legate

Yet I still believe he was a possible dream, and certainly at least as logical as your Boro theory, or in fact, more: I repeat, Boro was not at Sally's trust-list on the second day.

Hang-on– you still believe it now? Have you read the counter-arguments, Legate?

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Boro

I'll buy the "more so than usual" feeling, because not to sound ego-tistical, but I think I'm right about sally's dreams. But this is exactly why I debated on whether I wanted to go through her posts to even find the dreams. Come on Greenie, you know I can find the seer hints with the best of them. If I don't do it, I'm a wolf because I normally do do it. If I do it, then I'm too sharp and I must have known already sally was the seer.

Hmmn. I think I called you scary, not suspicious, but the fact that you immediately thought I did is either very interesting, or else just means I need to learn to express myself more clearly.


EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen

[Kitanna]

I feel like Legate is going around pushing buttons today.

What "I told thee so"? I only know her mentioning Pitch on the list. Therefore, I would dare to propose that her initial dream was actually Pitch.

He is continually coming back to this point that Sally dreamt of Pitch. I'm trying to avoid just repeating what has already been said, but I want to know why he's clinging to this? Sally had it in her power to swing the votes toward Kath and attempt to save Pitch, but she didn't. Essentially she did a throw away vote on TEW.

Don't say it twice or I will start pondering lynching you. I mean, I can see you being a Wolf and happily posting this statement. So watch it, because I am watching you. No more trust from me. I don't like it how you push that Boro was innocent, while there are rather good arguments contra. Any chance the WWs are you and Boro (and somebody)?

This is where I first noticed he was pushing buttons. He accuses Nerwen of pushing Boro as the dream because they're packmates.

I see we arrived to the same conclusions. However, I suggest people also ponder my Night 1 - Pitch theory. I know this "re:" stuff is not anything big, but it might be.

But he keeps pushing Pitch. Which is just as suspicious as pushing the living Boro. Here's how I view this:
1) Legate's theory/threat/suspicion isn't without merit. Wolf Nerwen wants the village to trust wolf Boro.
2) Wolf Nerwen is trying to align herself with an innocent. This tactic rarely works in the longrun, but it may buy her time.
3) Wolf Legate doesn't want the village to trust anyone. One known or commonly trusted innocent means one less possible innocent lynch candidate.

In his next post he continues to defend his Pitch theory based on the fact Sally didn't vote for him. But he also says:

But you are maybe right. One would have to look at the votes to see when she voted and all that.

He backtracks when Greenie says something about Sally's votes.

I am not trusting my own shadow anymore.

This "throwaway" comment makes me think Legate is trying to convince us he's a lost and confused innocent.

As for proposing "ridiculous" Pitch-dreamt of - theory, I did not connect the sally's comment with his lynching. Yet I still believe he was a possible dream, and certainly at least as logical as your Boro theory, or in fact, more: I repeat, Boro was not at Sally's trust-list on the second day.

He keeps pushing Pitch. I think he's trying to make Sally's "won't vote" list more important than it was. I mean she only had two dreams before dying. Most of that list was speculation on her part, as much as anyone else's.

Otherwise, I am becoming more and more suspicious of Boro: he is really acting incredibly "Agreeable" in his later posts. As innocent, he is usually far more inquisitive, and really now he just is sort of honey-tongued. I could consider him for my vote.

I don't think so. Boro's playing intelligently, but I wouldn't call it agreeable. I think Boro is less suspicious of being agreeable and more suspicious for arguing over the meaning of words. (Ex: Legate's use of agreeable and Greenie's use of scary).

[A Little Green]

I hate to go to sleep just when things are getting interesting, but unfortunately it's past midnight again. I hope to be able to do some serious rereading toMorrow if I'm still alive; for now, I think I'll go for

++ Nerwen

again. Nothing she has said has made me change my impression of her. Additionally, Sally suspected her late on Day 2. No, I'm not saying she was dreamed of; I think it's pretty obvious that she was not. But the thing is, Sally wasn't, at least in my mind, an obviously Seer-looking Seer. So if the wolves had a few options, it seems plausible that they'd go for the possible Seer that was most likely to dream one of them the next Night. Not sure if I'm making sense, but whether I am or not it's still bed time for me.

[Nerwen]

Given that Greenie has just voted me, this may seem like a retaliation– but it's not that, in fact I'm not saying it has to point at Greenie herself being evil, but it is rather curious.

As has been said, Sally doesn't seem to have said anything that screamed "Seer!" Her lists, for example, are nothing like the hinting lists some Seers make.

Greenie, on the other hand, posted this yesterDay:
#98.

Originally Posted by Greenie

A quick list, based more on feeling than fact since I don't have time to reread as much as I'd wish.

Legate - Feels fine this far.
Sally - Undecided about her. Like I said, she underlines her own innocence in a suspicious way, but reacted to Kath's vote in a relatively innocent way.
Inzil - Bad feeling. Couldn't pinpoint it right now, I'm sure I'd find a reason for the feeling if I reread his posts.
Kath - Good vibes.
Kitanna - Really sharp, not sure about her alignment though!
Bom - Undecided. Initial reaction was "suspicious!", after which I remembered I always think that whatever his role. So a questionmark for now.
Nerwen - Somewhat suspicious because, as stated before, she urged the Pitchwaggon on but backed off when it actually began.
G55 - Good and bad vibes at the same time! Another I'd love to reread.
Boro - Nothing alarming this far.
Azura - Still not around, right?
Laeko_Randalis - Couldn't say.

I think this actually looks more like a coded list than anything Sally posted– note all the "undecideds" and "not sure about alignments". It is true that only one person (Kath) is in the "good vibes" category, but Seers don't always list the people they know of together– too much of a giveaway– and I'd accept Legate's being "fine this far" as a near-equivalent.

I'm just wondering why the wolves bit on Sally instead.

EDIT:X'd with Kitanna.

[Nerwen]

Kitanna, in everything that you've quoted, I'm just expressing honest doubt. I tend to second-guess myself and find counter-arguments to my own arguments. I'm just like that.

And with the Legate– thing– well, yeah, first I shrugged it off, then I started thinking about how peculiar he was being. That's all.

EDIT:X'd with Kath.

[Kath]

Alright, well, internet is ok but it took a lot longer than anticipated so I'm only around the next 15 minutes. Won't have time to really look at people properly as a result so analysis won't be as detailed as yesterDay. Probably going to have to look just at toDays posts and then vote.

I won't be voting for anyone who hasn't posted yet toDay (if there is anyone) as again I think that's unfair.

Greenie - guessing sally's Night 3 dream is fairly pointless as sally can't have told us anything about whoever she dreamt of but good reasoning behind who it might have been. Dreaming possibilities: Boro (then recants it), Inzil, Kath, herself, TEW. That 'razor-sharp' comment could be suspicion or could be digging for a reaction or could be compliment! Votes Nerwen based on previous reasons and based on the idea that the wolves would try to protect WolfNerwen by killing SeerSally. Rather assumes the wolves had figured out sally was the Seer despite her just saying that sally wasn't an obvious Seer.

Nerwen - Dreaming possibilities: Boro, TEW, Kath. Thinks people like Inzil and Greenie are less likely dreams as they are based only on the 'will not vote' list. Am inclined to agree, there is subtle and there is opaque! Like the catch on sally seeming to say her ideas came from the thread alone. Argues dreaming of Pitch with some fair points. That said, if she did dream of him and knew he was innocent rather than Gifted, the danger in trying to save him would be the possibility of pushing someone into the lynch she did not know the role of, and that person ending up Gifted.

Legate - puts credence in the 'will not vote' list. I think the 'I told thee so' with Pitch is interesting. It's a particularly separate sentence, apart from anything else, short and sharp. Could well be the result of a dream. Disagrees with Nerwen (and from a quick read through this seems to continue) about Boro. Here I think we are going to see the effect of one person taking the 'will not vote' list as evidence of dreams and one person not doing so. His statement about not trusting Nerwen was rather aggressively phrased. 'Push' is a very strong term for what Nerwen said about Boro.

Inzil - I can see again what Inzil is saying about sally not trying to save Pitch if she had dreamt of him. The timing is interesting though. After 4 votes for Pitch, a sudden blast of defence from sally wouldn't exactly have been a good way of trying to stay hidden! Some interesting points about Kitanna. She is often voting against her previous posts. Or well, not so much against as she is showing suspicion of the people she is voting for, but that those she votes for don't appear to be her top suspects prior to the vote.

Kitanna - Dreaming possibilities: TEW and Kath. Thinks Nerwen is quite jumpy. Well, yes, but as noted Legate was pretty aggressive. Asks Legate why he holds on to his Pitch theory. Well there are arguments against it but I think there are arguments for it as well. Again, it depends whether or not you use the 'not vote' list as evidence.

Boro - I ... don't get his post. I know Boro can often be a player who really shows his frustration, but he seemed to take that comment from Legate as an attack against him when really it was directed at Nerwen. Sure Legate mentioned suspicion of Boro but the reason for the suspicion was down to Nerwen's aforementioned 'pushing' (that wasn't). It's this whole 'this is probably going to get me lynched' attitude that is throwing me. Is that because he was about to argue against the theory that he had been dreamt of and thus try to disprove his own potential known innocent status? That said, he then comes up with some really interesting thoughts about the dreams. I hadn't thought about TEW being unlikely if sally still wanted to lynch him the next Day. I think we all need to start putting some sort of glossary up explaining exactly what we mean by certain words! After mine and Boro's 'Pitch-wagon' debate yesterDay and now this one with him and Greenie over 'scary'.

Right, posting this, then voting.

[Kath]

Based on that those I would consider voting would be:

Greenie - For such a flip floppy Nerwen vote. Either sally was an obvious Seer who the wolves were afraid would dream of NerwenWolf, or sally was not an obvious Seer. I just don't think you can have it both ways.

Legate - For that very aggressive tone early on. He has pulled it back but it has been commented on toDay that since doing so he has then tried to portray himself a little as a confused innocent. He may very well be that of course, it's just the slide into that after that very confident start that seems odd.

Boro - For changing from fairly calm, considered Boro to angry!frustrated!argumentative! Boro all in one go. Could be the result of the loss of two Gifteds and therefore his attempt to play more calmly went out the window. Or he's a wolf who has stopped being so bothered about keeping a calm cover after the loss of two Gifteds.

Because I feel my reasoning for Greenie is less so-so than for the others:

++GREENIE

And to bed.

NOTE: Will have crossposted with everyone since my last but one post.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I don't think so. Boro's playing intelligently, but I wouldn't call it agreeable. I think Boro is less suspicious of being agreeable and more suspicious for arguing over the meaning of words. (Ex: Legate's use of agreeable and Greenie's use of scary).

Fairy nuff (and to Kath's latest posts which I crossed with). Nothing really frustrates me more about this, than being suspected with unexplained and vague statements. I used to be able to ignore it because they were never really serious, but lately seems like you can easily get lynched if someone says you look scary or are "up to something." It just leaves me to throw my hands up, like sorry, what do you want me to do about always being up something?

And Greenie, glad you don't want to get into the semantics. If I was coming off as bullish, I'm sorry, I didn't mean to. I was trying to expresss the frustration, while also saying if you suspect me, then suspect me. Because I know you're better than that to give me a fair chance to defend suspicions.