WW: LXXXVIII - Trouble in the Misty Mountains: Game Thread

[A Little Green]

Still nobody here? Ah well. I'll be going through Sally's posts, back with (hopefully) some ideas.

[A Little Green]

SALLY
(This is not a summary of all Sally's posts, but rather a focused analysis the purpose of which is to find out who she dreamed of.)

Boro, my prince, hold me.

My sweet prince, I've simply missed you. Don't you trust me?

Amid her loads of banter, the flirt with Boro is a recurring theme. I'm tempted to suggest that Boro is our first dreamed innocent. Mostly because I'm doubtful of whether a Seer would be so careless as to single someone out just randomly, knowing that her posts will be analysed with care once she's dead.

Won't vote:
Kath
Boro
Dun
Pitch
Greenie
Fresh Meat #1 and #2

In itself, this tells us little; more can (possibly) be read in comparison to a similar list from Day 2.

Something about Elf-Warrior's analysis looks off to me. It just seems forced, or like he's trying to say something without saying it. Definitely a mark in my suspicious column. Enough for a lynch vote? I'll have to consider it.

She ends up voting Elf-Warrior. Even if he wasn't known to be innocent, it would be pretty clear that Sally hadn't dreamed him yet. As he was pretty much her top suspect, though, it's very possible she dreamed him the next Night. That would also account for her expressed annoyance of him being Night-killed. Also, possibly, what led the wolves to her trail?

In the early phases of Day 2, she forcibly demands explanations for the EW kill and presents the idea of killing the ones in danger of modfire.

Based on both yesterDay's malarkey and reactions to my modfire plan toDay....

I will not vote for:
Kath
Kit
Greenie
Dun
Legate

There are a few notable differences to the previous Day's list. Firstly, Kit and Legate have made it there; Boro, however, has vanished from the list, making me doubt my original theory that he was Sally's first dream. The only ones that persist on the list are Kath and myself.

Concerning Gal's suspicion of Nerwen:

Nerwen: I was wary of the jump as well, but, well, I'll be frank. I rather suspect both of you.

She then votes Gal. Again, her suspicions do not seem to be based on Night dreams. If I had to hazard a guess as to who she dreamed of the Night she was killed, I'd say it was Nerwen. This will look potentially bad for her if the wolves thought like I do; then again, if they caught her Seerishness from other stuff, they would have gone for her whether Nerwen is a wolf or not.

[A Little Green]

Oh. I see I forgot to draw some definite conclusions. Right, so I'd say Sally dreamed
Night 1 - Inzil (forgot him in my last post, sorry!), Kath or myself since we are the ones wh persist on her "will not vote" -list; Boro would also be a possibility, but his disappearance from the "will not vote" -list somewhat downplays this theory.
and Night 2 - Elf-Warrior would be the logical conclusion since he was her top suspect, and she expressed frustration when he was Night-killed; Legate and Kit appeared on her "will not vote" -list, making them possibilities too, but I'm inclined to believe it was EW.

This wasn't very definite, though, was it?


EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

All right, then: Sally. I don't have time right now to put together a proper analysis, with quotes and everything, but I have been reading through her posts. I think she dreamed Boro (innocent)– she seemed very positive about him in general, and at #108 she actually said to him, "I trust your judgement". I know they tend to flirt a bit, but a Seer would probably avoid saying that about an unknown.

Unfortunately, I'd say there's a very good chance her other dream was The Elf-warrior– that would explain why she was so annoyed when he was killed. The other possibility would be Kath on Night One, explaining why Sally was so ready to dismiss Kath's vote on her.

I see Nerwen is thinking much along the same lines as I am; also, I think the point about Kath is a good one.

It's the classic "only myself and Nerwen around" -time of day!

[Nerwen]

Greenie, I think you are putting too much stock in this "will not vote" list. I doubt it's any kind of Seer-code, since there seems to be no way of narrowing it down to less than three people.

EDIT:X'd with Greenie.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Greenie, I think you are putting too much stock in this "will not vote" list. I doubt it's any kind of Seer-code, since there seems to be no way of narrowing it down to less than three people.

I agree it's unlikely to be any kind of code per se. However, I'd expect that if she had dreamed an innocent, that innocent wouldn't be one she considered to vote, and thus would be expected to appear on that list. Make sense?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I agree it's unlikely to be any kind of code per se. However, I'd expect that if she had dreamed an innocent, that innocent wouldn't be one she considered to vote, and thus would be expected to appear on that list. Make sense?

Okay, I see what you mean now. However, that second list is prefaced by, "Based on both yesterDay's malarkey and reactions to my modfire plan toDay...." that is, I should say, "...not on my dreams..."

[Nerwen]

Of course, you could say the same about her general statements about people– since they also seem to leave three possibilities– but that's not quite the same as leaving hints in a list.

EDIT:X'd with Greenie.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

All right, then: Sally. I don't have time right now to put together a proper analysis, with quotes and everything, but I have been reading through her posts. I think she dreamed Boro (innocent)– she seemed very positive about him in general, and at #108 she actually said to him, "I trust your judgement". I know they tend to flirt a bit, but a Seer would probably avoid saying that about an unknown.

Disagreed, and see above why. Unless sally was super-hyper-covering her trail that she was dreaming of him by not putting him on her list next Day, which I don't believe she would, then Boro was most definitely NOT her dream.

Unfortunately, I'd say there's a very good chance her other dream was The Elf-warrior– that would explain why she was so annoyed when he was killed. The other possibility would be Kath on Night One, explaining why Sally was so ready to dismiss Kath's vote on her.

This makes sense, and good point about Kath too.

I really can't see what gave her away, unless it was one of the things I just mentioned, which aren't exactly obvious. Maybe the wolves are using my kill list now.

Don't say it twice or I will start pondering lynching you. I mean, I can see you being a Wolf and happily posting this statement. So watch it, because I am watching you. No more trust from me. I don't like it how you push that Boro was innocent, while there are rather good arguments contra. Any chance the WWs are you and Boro (and somebody)?

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Oh. I see I forgot to draw some definite conclusions. Right, so I'd say Sally dreamed
Night 1 - Inzil (forgot him in my last post, sorry!), Kath or myself since we are the ones wh persist on her "will not vote" -list; Boro would also be a possibility, but his disappearance from the "will not vote" -list somewhat downplays this theory.
and Night 2 - Elf-Warrior would be the logical conclusion since he was her top suspect, and she expressed frustration when he was Night-killed; Legate and Kit appeared on her "will not vote" -list, making them possibilities too, but I'm inclined to believe it was EW.

I see we arrived to the same conclusions. However, I suggest people also ponder my Night 1 - Pitch theory. I know this "re:" stuff is not anything big, but it might be.

And now I really have to go. I have player characters in D&D to kill today (well... not really, but...).

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Don't say it twice or I will start pondering lynching you. I mean, I can see you being a Wolf and happily posting this statement. So watch it, because I am watching you. No more trust from me. I don't like it how you push that Boro was innocent, while there are rather good arguments contra. Any chance the WWs are you and Boro (and somebody)?

I would hardly call that "pushing."

sally would be one to have some code, but whether it's too confusing for us to follow, it probably won't be worth the effort to try to figure it out. If it matters to anyone I'll try giving a crack at it. But I would prefer not to be lynched, seeing as we need wolves.

Otherwise, I'm going to be spending my time on who's a wolf to lynch and not unravelling sally's hidden code.

Usually we find the most fantastic ways to mess these games up, but I'm not too happy with the 2 known gifteds so far. These misfortunes aren't on our hands, you could have you know, been a bit more helpful?

[Boromir88]

This is probably going to get me lynched, but whatever. The gifteds have either gone to be a martyr or left a confusing trail of dreams to follow. But, I think this can help and if it makes me more suspicious so be it.

I agree with Nerwen that the "do not vote lists" of sally's are a waste of time. Maybe a dreamed innocent or two are in there, but it's impossible to narrow the possible dreams down based soley on the "do not vote" lists.

sally might be crazy and confusing, but she's not silly enough to leave no hints and have us be totally lost. I know Greenie and Nerwen brought me up as a possible sally dream, but I really don't think so. Normally I make sense as an early dream, and sally and I do have a history. But that lover reference, Princess Bride business is pretty normal. I took it as she was trying to see if she could trust me, and her "I trust your judgement" on day 2, still comes off as she thought me innocent, but hadn't used a dream on me.

The suggestion that she dreamed of Pitch or TEW, I think is pretty weak, for reasons already stated on Pitch. After TEW was killed she said

Re: Elf-Warrior: What the heck, wolves? I really wanted to lynch him!

Even if she was suspicious of TEW on Day 1, why would she say, after he's been killed by the wolves "I really wanted to lynch him" if she dreamed of TEW night 2?

So, she had 2 dreams, and both are likely then still alive. I'm inclined to agree that she hadn't dreamed a wolf yet, just based on her votes. First for TEW (killed by wolves) and 2nd for G55 (hunter). Granted, if she did dream a wolf, she wouldn't go parading the information around in plain sight, but all of her hints are weighed towards people looking innocent.

If this gets both of you in trouble, because you know as presumed village innocent you'll suddenly become wolf meat, then I apologize to you two. But then again, there's still the Ranger who might be able to head off the wolves with this information.

I think her dreams were Kath and Kit. Sally was completely unphased by Kath's vote, and then Kath's continued suspicions the following day. We should know sally well enough to know, when she's innocent she's usually proclaiming it often and always brings up how if she's lynched the village has a history of losing. Kath's vote and suspicions she just seemed unbothered by completely (although I think this has already been said).

Now, to me this looks like an obvious hint right in front of us. Not the normal lover-behavior she displays towards me, but a rather clear and straight forward hint. Not obvious enough if we didn't know she was the seer that probably would have been spotted, but in hindisght, looks clear enough to me:

Originally Posted by sally

It's nice to know at least one person who's on my side.

"know someone is on my side," it's not ambigious language like "trust" or a non-vote list of 5-6 people. (But it would explain why Kit was added onto the non-vote list later).

That's all on sally I'm doing for the day. Make of it what you will. I think her dreams were an innocent Kit and Kath.

Edit: crossed with Inzil.

[A Little Green]

Random observation: both Boro and Kath seem razor-sharp this game. I mean, even more so than usual. It's kind of scary.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

"know someone is on my side," it's not ambigious language like "trust" or a non-vote list of 5-6 people. (But it would explain why Kit was added onto the non-vote list later).

That's all on sally I'm doing for the day. Make of it what you will. I think her dreams were an innocent Kit and Kath.

I suppose that's a possibility for Sally's dreams, but I think it's a reach where Kit is concerned. That "on my side" comment just looks to me like an throwaway remark.

[Kitanna]

I feel like Legate is going around pushing buttons today.

What "I told thee so"? I only know her mentioning Pitch on the list. Therefore, I would dare to propose that her initial dream was actually Pitch.

He is continually coming back to this point that Sally dreamt of Pitch. I'm trying to avoid just repeating what has already been said, but I want to know why he's clinging to this? Sally had it in her power to swing the votes toward Kath and attempt to save Pitch, but she didn't. Essentially she did a throw away vote on TEW.

Don't say it twice or I will start pondering lynching you. I mean, I can see you being a Wolf and happily posting this statement. So watch it, because I am watching you. No more trust from me. I don't like it how you push that Boro was innocent, while there are rather good arguments contra. Any chance the WWs are you and Boro (and somebody)?

This is where I first noticed he was pushing buttons. He accuses Nerwen of pushing Boro as the dream because they're packmates.

I see we arrived to the same conclusions. However, I suggest people also ponder my Night 1 - Pitch theory. I know this "re:" stuff is not anything big, but it might be.

But he keeps pushing Pitch. Which is just as suspicious as pushing the living Boro. Here's how I view this:
1) Legate's theory/threat/suspicion isn't without merit. Wolf Nerwen wants the village to trust wolf Boro.
2) Wolf Nerwen is trying to align herself with an innocent. This tactic rarely works in the longrun, but it may buy her time.
3) Wolf Legate doesn't want the village to trust anyone. One known or commonly trusted innocent means one less possible innocent lynch candidate.

In his next post he continues to defend his Pitch theory based on the fact Sally didn't vote for him. But he also says:

But you are maybe right. One would have to look at the votes to see when she voted and all that.

He backtracks when Greenie says something about Sally's votes.

I am not trusting my own shadow anymore.

This "throwaway" comment makes me think Legate is trying to convince us he's a lost and confused innocent.

As for proposing "ridiculous" Pitch-dreamt of - theory, I did not connect the sally's comment with his lynching. Yet I still believe he was a possible dream, and certainly at least as logical as your Boro theory, or in fact, more: I repeat, Boro was not at Sally's trust-list on the second day.

He keeps pushing Pitch. I think he's trying to make Sally's "won't vote" list more important than it was. I mean she only had two dreams before dying. Most of that list was speculation on her part, as much as anyone else's.

Otherwise, I am becoming more and more suspicious of Boro: he is really acting incredibly "Agreeable" in his later posts. As innocent, he is usually far more inquisitive, and really now he just is sort of honey-tongued. I could consider him for my vote.

I don't think so. Boro's playing intelligently, but I wouldn't call it agreeable. I think Boro is less suspicious of being agreeable and more suspicious for arguing over the meaning of words. (Ex: Legate's use of agreeable and Greenie's use of scary).

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

So Sally was

Day 1 - suspecting and voting EW, and posting a list of people she does not want to vote.

Day 2 - offering modfire-threatened people to be lynched. That would point at least to one thing: she most likely did NOT dream a Wolf that Night, or the previous, since then she'd have at least proposed it.

Given this, I propose her first dream was among those:

Kath
Boro
Dun
Pitch
Greenie
Fresh Meat #1 and #2

I don't know about her "sweetprincing" with Boro, but it does not say anything. As it has been pointed out, Boro is not on her "will not vote for" list on next Day.

Also, there is this on next Day:

Re: Pitch: I told thee so!

What "I told thee so"? I only know her mentioning Pitch on the list. Therefore, I would dare to propose that her initial dream was actually Pitch.

Day 2 list of those she won't vote for:

Kath
Kit
Greenie
Dun
Legate

Okay, so: the only recurring names are Kath, Dun and Greenie. However, if I am right and she dreamt of Pitch first, then unless she dreamt TEW on Night 2, she could have also dreamt of a "new" person: me or Kit. The question is, whom she would be likely to dream of. I mean: reasons? Why to choose either of us? Of all I would see most probable dream to be TEW, to be honest, based on logic: I don't know if me or Kit were as "interesting". Then again, who knows what logic sally used.

I must leave for now, so I will leave you to ponder the rest of the implications and questions I have raised (see above). Will be back later, but not sure how much later.

EDIT: x-ed since Greenie's sallylysis

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Legate

What "I told thee so"? I only know her mentioning Pitch on the list. Therefore, I would dare to propose that her initial dream was actually Pitch.

Possible, I think. Then again, would she not have tried to defend him or vote for a more possible lynch candidate to save him?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Possible, I think. Then again, would she not have tried to defend him or vote for a more possible lynch candidate to save him?

She tried to vote for somebody else, right? Does that count as attempt? But you are maybe right. One would have to look at the votes to see when she voted and all that. Sadly, I really have to run now. Somebody please could check it?

[Nerwen]

I'm pretty sure she didn't dream of Pitch, Legate, as she made no attempt at all to save him. "I told you so' surely refers to her own reaction to the "Pitchwaggon" (#61):

Originally Posted by Sally the Seer

Dudes, this is messed up.

I'll be home in about fifteen minutes. Try not to go crazier, okay?

That doesn't sound to me at all like a Seer dismayed at watching her known innocent dragged to the gallows– more like an onlooker going, "What the–?"

On that note, and looking again at the voting on Day One– I realise Sally was around at the time Boro and I starting talking about voting Kath, and only pointed out "this is hardly the first time Kath has done this", which is really a pretty lukewarm defence.

I suppose you could argue that Pitch's fate was already sealed, but still, there was an hour to go and some people yet to vote.

EDIT:X'd since Legate at #215.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate

Don't say it twice or I will start pondering lynching you. I mean, I can see you being a Wolf and happily posting this statement.

Oh, so can I – but I'm not, as it happens.

Originally Posted by Legate

So watch it, because I am watching you. No more trust from me. I don't like it how you push that Boro was innocent, while there are rather good arguments contra.

Quite a distortion, there, Legate. I didn't "push it", I put it forward as a logical inference. Why are you "pushing" that she dreamed Pitch– which really doesn't make sense?

[Nerwen]

Legate, the point is not who is right– unfortunately, I'm not sure we *can* come to a definite conclusion– it's that, well, we've lost the Seer, the best we can do is try to glean what we can from her comments while alive. As is usual. Why try to frighten people off a particular line of reasoning? I mean, it's one thing to say, "I don't agree with you because of such-and-such", quite another to– well, honestly, you're pretty close to threatening me there. A bit excessive, surely?

[Nerwen]

Actually, Legate has been making a habit of aggressively steering the discussion away from certain topics. He did it on Day One, with his "warning vote" on TEW, and on Day Two by stepping in to end the theorising over why TEW had been killed. Not that I can't see the logic of that– after a certain point, such talk can become a waste of time and a distraction, or even a nice smokescreen for the evil side. Still, this is becoming a pattern. I don't know what it means, though– I could hardly call it a sign of lupinity, since the Legwolf I remember is a *lot* smoother and sneakier.