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Old 02-23-2012, 09:48 PM   #11
Nogrod
Flame of the Ainulindalë
 
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Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves
Posts: 9,308
Nogrod is wading through the Dead Marshes.Nogrod is wading through the Dead Marshes.Nogrod is wading through the Dead Marshes.Nogrod is wading through the Dead Marshes.Nogrod is wading through the Dead Marshes.Nogrod is wading through the Dead Marshes.
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I'll make it once more so that you see where we are... (and then I need to go to sleep vacation or not)

We are 13 people now.

13

4 wolves
1 acolyte (who kills at Night, seemingly allied to the baddies, killed Eruhen)
8 innocents (including a ranger and a seer)

If you lynch me and the wolves kill someone, and the Acolyte continues the bloody path correctly to his evil aims, the tally toMorrow will be:

10 people on Day3

10

4 wolves
1 Acolyte (Zil)
5 innocents

If the baddies then reveal themselves to each other, it's game over as they can organize a 5-5 vote leading it as 4-4 into the Night and game over - or if evenone innocetn votes wrong they will jump on it and end it already toMorrow.


~*~

And even if a minor detail goes wrong they can afford it.

And on the other thought, it is possible that after G55's, Boro's and Eönwë's pre-decided effort seemed to fail (I have not seen the guys to answer my question about their accusations), Eönwë felt too much pressure (for a good reason as I think most everyone - other than the wolves - were thinking he was making himself more suspicious than me with his "case"), so he decided to go for a fake reveal without the counsel of the others...

But whichever way it is as to why Eönwë made his fake reveal, they have chances to win easily if you lynch me toDay.


And the real seer should really think about this closely.

We can't afford to lose an innocent in principle, but there sure are some chances (the Acolyte might not have a kill every Night, the ranger might save someone etc.). If we lynch Eönwë toDay, we're one wolf down, and you get one more dream (I'd suggest Boro or G55) while the ranger protects you. Then we'd have a second wolf, most likely. But you can of course come forwards and reveal the falsity of Eönwë - especially if you have other good news to bring.

But up to you. Certainly. If you think you're safe and my death will help us, go that way and win it for us.


EDIT: X'd with a lots... but it turned out just a few long ones.
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